By Abba Anwar

As breakthroughs are unfolding in Kano politics, specifically within All Progressives Congress (APC), before one can correctly assess and conclude the fate of the party (APC) in 2027, there are factors that must be taken into consideration.

The factors, according to my understanding of the situation are as follows:

1. National Chairman, Abdullahi Umar Ganduje factor,
2. Deputy Senate President, Barau Jibrin factor,
3. Deputy Governorship Candidate, 2023, Murtala Sule Garo factor,
4. Gawuna – Garo factor,
5. State Chairman, Abdullahi Abbas factor,
6. Hon Alhassan Ado Doguwa factor,
7. Kano Emirship Tussle factor,
8. Garo – Baffa Dan Agundi factor,
9. Expectation of support from the above factor

There could be other factors in some people’s eyes. But to me, I only look at those factors that can change the political direction of either the party or the state or both. The space is still open for further discussion.

Under the National Chairman of the party Dr Ganduje, CON, the major threat that could face APC in Kano, is when Ganduje is deliberately being “humiliated” by the very party, he aided to victory in the 2023 Presidential election. Ganduje was one of the earliest callers who supported the candidature of Bola Ahmed Tinubu, then an aspirant.

Before you knew it Ganduje was able to influenced many Northern governors at the time, to came out boldly and declared that North would support only Southern candidate. That was how Tinubu made it.

Whenever some elements within the party plotted for Ganduje’s fall, that will for sure cause many damages to the party in Kano and indeed other parts of Northern Nigeria. No doubt about this! First and foremost, that could easily be translated to mean, loyalty is no longer a pride in political parlance. Just to highlight a few points on Ganduje. He is an experienced politician who knows his onions. Ask his political opponents.

For Barau, if it is true that, he is eyeing the position of Vice President, come 2027, yes the intention is bold and emphatic. But he has to have his plan on how to tread safely, with the current Vice President on board. And he has to know how to handle some notable Northerners who have either directly or symbolically indicate their interest to run for Presidency in 2031 or so.

But if his intention is still on governorship position, Garo and the former Deputy Governor of Kano State and former Minister of State, Housing, Abdullahi Tijjani Muhammad Gwarzo, are still more relevant and powerful than him from the Zone, Kano North. Part of his minuses as observed by many is, his inability to surround himself with politicians of substance and relevance.

While his one touch political strategy, is also seen as another political blunder. That those he accepted or welcomed into APC from other political parties, only get his ears during the jamboree when being celebrated as new entrants. But after that, all new comers are on their own (laughter).

Unlike Garo, Barau can hardly mention five standard politicians from across all the 44 local governments in the state. Politicians that are reliable. But in the case of Garo, many believe that, he knows, very closely, political actors down to polling units.

Many believe that, if Barau gets any ticket in the state elective positions, especially if he didn’t work for it, internal Intrigues among other things would spell doom for him. In this situation therefore, political alignments and realignments could be a safety valve for him and his ambition.

Another dust for Barau, from the standpoint I’m looking at it, is, if it is true he is at loggerhead with Ganduje, I won’t say Rest In Peace (RIP), but I would rather advice him to have a rethink.

So also concerning federal government appointments, if it is true that he has a hand in dropping AT Gwarzo, among other intrigues, so I will wait for 2027 to come. If it happens that I will be alive.

The greatest of it all, is, if it is true that he has a hand in delaying Garo’s appointment all these while, I assume that he will not be the driver of Kano’s political ambulance. Where all the injured, the severely sick and pregnants of uncertainty remain with the driver for an appointed time and destinations.

For Garo, many believe with full conviction, that, his political strength, relevance, result – oriented political practice, down – to-earth political strategy, magnanimous postulation coupled with his generosity, elevate him to be one of the few existing forces to be reckoned with in Kano politics.

Within a twinkle of an eye, Garo can give you practical names of people that can work for the party across all the 44 local governments and 448 Wards of the state.

He, as at the time I was writing this paragraph, still enjoys the support and commitment of many former local governments Chairmen, since during Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso’s second tenure in office. Down to Ganduje’s eight years in office.

Garo enjoys similar support and commitment from many party leaders at local governments and wards levels. From caucuses of the party at all levels. Also from many former members of the Kano State Assembly. How he managed to get that, I really don’t have the slightest idea. But he is such a strong pillar within the rank and file of the party.

Whether it is true or not, that, he also enjoys the support of the former First Lady Prof Hafsat Abdullahi Ganduje, an impression that makes Gawuna to be treading cautiously, Garo believes, internal democracy is best option for imposition.

Garo’s political sins? According to some opinions, he too much loves the party and he is too loyal to Ganduje, to a fault. But that did not stop him from calling the attention of the former governor to join hands together, with other former governors and political leaders to develop the state. While setting aside their personal interest and differences.

The fourth factor is Gawuna-Garo. It is crafted this way for the simple reason that, some are of the opinion that, Gawuna needs Garo, more than the way Garo needs Gawuna. In terms of political spread across the 44 local governments, both party leaders and followers, believe that Garo was more spread tactfully and earlier than Gawuna, before 2023 general election.

Arguing that Garo was Chairman Kabo local government as Gawuna was also Chairman Nassarawa local government, but Garo was State Chapter Chairman for Association for Local Governments of Nigeria (ALGON) and Commissioner for local governments and Chieftaincy Affairs, which gave him age over Gawuna, in terms of political spread and connections to grassroot.

Some people are of the opinion that, Gawuna – Garo ticket can still hold water in 2027. Others argued in the contrary. Challenging that, it could be better for the ticket to be contested for, among all aspiring elements.

Gawuna – Garo ticket according to protagonists, may not need fresh engagement. Because, the ticket has become a household name in Kano politics. Believe it or not, if by chance Gawuna – Garo ticket is maintained in 2027, victory is not automatic. Apart from correcting the past anomalies, those who do not mean well for the party, either overtly or covertly, must be exposed and dealt with politically. If genuine victory will be the goal.

Abdullahi Abbas, as an institution, as some argued, and as a factor, is not a ready-made threat to the party at all. I don’t care whether Abbas continues to be the Chairman forever, but what I am concerned with, is, how the party can regain consciousness with genuine commitment, abandoning self – first approach to issues and engaging honest individuals. I believe there is honesty in politics. Depending on which side of the prism one is looking at.

Yes Abbas is a factor in the party, because many believe he is the perfect match for the opposition in Kano. He masters the language they understand. As far as I’m concern, Abbas or Dan Azumi Gwarzo or Mutari Ishaq Yakasai or Tumfafi or any other person can become a Chairman of the party.

But I suggest that, consolidation of the party’s strength, spread and unrelenting tempo should be left with some hardworking individuals like Garo, Baffa Dan Agundi and Alhassan Ado Doguwa, among few others. Coincidentally they come from our three Senatorial Zones. As party leaders will be occupied with managing the party, Garo-Agundi-Doguwa will be saving the party from external aggression. Without any fear of mincing words, they are very strong, hard working and absolutely fearless!

Doguwa as a factor, it is acknowledged by many that he is a dogged fighter, an astonishing moulder, engaging capacity builder, an accomplished politician of great substance and intellectually sound. He is the only, yes the only, member of House of Representatives who was elected under APC from Kano South. Kwankwasiyya Tsunami was unable to get rid of him in 2023 elections.

He too, masters the language understood by the opposition in the state. Apart from being fearless, in the scheme of things, Doguwa, believes in good representation of his people. One of the outspoken legislators in the Green Chamber, Abuja. Very articulate and down – to-earth.

His ferocious political engagement means a lot in dealing with the opposition voices from Kano South. If APC can be bold and serious enough to bring on board somebody like Doguwa from Kano South, the party, APC, will be dancing to victory, come 2027, in the state. He is a force to be reckoned with in Kano politics. Take it or leave it.

Kano Emirship Tussle as one of the factors, for APC to make or mar in 2027, I have only one statement here. All those that are thinking of making this lingering crisis a corridor for APC’s victory in 2027, are only telling us that they are lazy and cannot fight for the party’s victory. They are only suggesting that, they cannot work very hard for victory. They are only searching for shortcut to political victory. This stance is defeatist!

As for Garo – Dan Agundi factor, I mentioned the union above. Linking them with Doguwa to form tripartite engagement. While party leaders are busy managing party affairs, Garo – Dan Agundi – Doguwa, should be given a particular role to play in managing the youth aspect of the party, particularly against external aggression. This special assignment needs genuine people, with genuine purpose and genuine goal.

Those waiting for support from above during 2027 election, without working for victory, are only deceiving themselves. That is why it is high time for rejig, reengineering, refocus, realignment, reinvesting of ideas and running away from poverty of ideas.

Anwar, was Chief Press Secretary to the former Governor of Kano State, Dr Abdullahi Umar Ganduje. Can be reached at fatimanbaba1@gmail.com