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Kano 2027 Projection : APC Chances, Intrigues and Realistic Reality

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Governor Ganduje
Dr Abdullahi Umar Ganduje,APC National Chairman

 

By Abba Anwar

As breakthroughs are unfolding in Kano politics, specifically within All Progressives Congress (APC), before one can correctly assess and conclude the fate of the party (APC) in 2027, there are factors that must be taken into consideration.

The factors, according to my understanding of the situation are as follows:

1. National Chairman, Abdullahi Umar Ganduje factor,
2. Deputy Senate President, Barau Jibrin factor,
3. Deputy Governorship Candidate, 2023, Murtala Sule Garo factor,
4. Gawuna – Garo factor,
5. State Chairman, Abdullahi Abbas factor,
6. Hon Alhassan Ado Doguwa factor,
7. Kano Emirship Tussle factor,
8. Garo – Baffa Dan Agundi factor,
9. Expectation of support from the above factor

There could be other factors in some people’s eyes. But to me, I only look at those factors that can change the political direction of either the party or the state or both. The space is still open for further discussion.

Under the National Chairman of the party Dr Ganduje, CON, the major threat that could face APC in Kano, is when Ganduje is deliberately being “humiliated” by the very party, he aided to victory in the 2023 Presidential election. Ganduje was one of the earliest callers who supported the candidature of Bola Ahmed Tinubu, then an aspirant.

Before you knew it Ganduje was able to influenced many Northern governors at the time, to came out boldly and declared that North would support only Southern candidate. That was how Tinubu made it.

Whenever some elements within the party plotted for Ganduje’s fall, that will for sure cause many damages to the party in Kano and indeed other parts of Northern Nigeria. No doubt about this! First and foremost, that could easily be translated to mean, loyalty is no longer a pride in political parlance. Just to highlight a few points on Ganduje. He is an experienced politician who knows his onions. Ask his political opponents.

For Barau, if it is true that, he is eyeing the position of Vice President, come 2027, yes the intention is bold and emphatic. But he has to have his plan on how to tread safely, with the current Vice President on board. And he has to know how to handle some notable Northerners who have either directly or symbolically indicate their interest to run for Presidency in 2031 or so.

But if his intention is still on governorship position, Garo and the former Deputy Governor of Kano State and former Minister of State, Housing, Abdullahi Tijjani Muhammad Gwarzo, are still more relevant and powerful than him from the Zone, Kano North. Part of his minuses as observed by many is, his inability to surround himself with politicians of substance and relevance.

While his one touch political strategy, is also seen as another political blunder. That those he accepted or welcomed into APC from other political parties, only get his ears during the jamboree when being celebrated as new entrants. But after that, all new comers are on their own (laughter).

Unlike Garo, Barau can hardly mention five standard politicians from across all the 44 local governments in the state. Politicians that are reliable. But in the case of Garo, many believe that, he knows, very closely, political actors down to polling units.

Many believe that, if Barau gets any ticket in the state elective positions, especially if he didn’t work for it, internal Intrigues among other things would spell doom for him. In this situation therefore, political alignments and realignments could be a safety valve for him and his ambition.

Another dust for Barau, from the standpoint I’m looking at it, is, if it is true he is at loggerhead with Ganduje, I won’t say Rest In Peace (RIP), but I would rather advice him to have a rethink.

So also concerning federal government appointments, if it is true that he has a hand in dropping AT Gwarzo, among other intrigues, so I will wait for 2027 to come. If it happens that I will be alive.

The greatest of it all, is, if it is true that he has a hand in delaying Garo’s appointment all these while, I assume that he will not be the driver of Kano’s political ambulance. Where all the injured, the severely sick and pregnants of uncertainty remain with the driver for an appointed time and destinations.

For Garo, many believe with full conviction, that, his political strength, relevance, result – oriented political practice, down – to-earth political strategy, magnanimous postulation coupled with his generosity, elevate him to be one of the few existing forces to be reckoned with in Kano politics.

Within a twinkle of an eye, Garo can give you practical names of people that can work for the party across all the 44 local governments and 448 Wards of the state.

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He, as at the time I was writing this paragraph, still enjoys the support and commitment of many former local governments Chairmen, since during Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso’s second tenure in office. Down to Ganduje’s eight years in office.

Garo enjoys similar support and commitment from many party leaders at local governments and wards levels. From caucuses of the party at all levels. Also from many former members of the Kano State Assembly. How he managed to get that, I really don’t have the slightest idea. But he is such a strong pillar within the rank and file of the party.

Whether it is true or not, that, he also enjoys the support of the former First Lady Prof Hafsat Abdullahi Ganduje, an impression that makes Gawuna to be treading cautiously, Garo believes, internal democracy is best option for imposition.

Garo’s political sins? According to some opinions, he too much loves the party and he is too loyal to Ganduje, to a fault. But that did not stop him from calling the attention of the former governor to join hands together, with other former governors and political leaders to develop the state. While setting aside their personal interest and differences.

The fourth factor is Gawuna-Garo. It is crafted this way for the simple reason that, some are of the opinion that, Gawuna needs Garo, more than the way Garo needs Gawuna. In terms of political spread across the 44 local governments, both party leaders and followers, believe that Garo was more spread tactfully and earlier than Gawuna, before 2023 general election.

Arguing that Garo was Chairman Kabo local government as Gawuna was also Chairman Nassarawa local government, but Garo was State Chapter Chairman for Association for Local Governments of Nigeria (ALGON) and Commissioner for local governments and Chieftaincy Affairs, which gave him age over Gawuna, in terms of political spread and connections to grassroot.

Some people are of the opinion that, Gawuna – Garo ticket can still hold water in 2027. Others argued in the contrary. Challenging that, it could be better for the ticket to be contested for, among all aspiring elements.

Gawuna – Garo ticket according to protagonists, may not need fresh engagement. Because, the ticket has become a household name in Kano politics. Believe it or not, if by chance Gawuna – Garo ticket is maintained in 2027, victory is not automatic. Apart from correcting the past anomalies, those who do not mean well for the party, either overtly or covertly, must be exposed and dealt with politically. If genuine victory will be the goal.

Abdullahi Abbas, as an institution, as some argued, and as a factor, is not a ready-made threat to the party at all. I don’t care whether Abbas continues to be the Chairman forever, but what I am concerned with, is, how the party can regain consciousness with genuine commitment, abandoning self – first approach to issues and engaging honest individuals. I believe there is honesty in politics. Depending on which side of the prism one is looking at.

Yes Abbas is a factor in the party, because many believe he is the perfect match for the opposition in Kano. He masters the language they understand. As far as I’m concern, Abbas or Dan Azumi Gwarzo or Mutari Ishaq Yakasai or Tumfafi or any other person can become a Chairman of the party.

But I suggest that, consolidation of the party’s strength, spread and unrelenting tempo should be left with some hardworking individuals like Garo, Baffa Dan Agundi and Alhassan Ado Doguwa, among few others. Coincidentally they come from our three Senatorial Zones. As party leaders will be occupied with managing the party, Garo-Agundi-Doguwa will be saving the party from external aggression. Without any fear of mincing words, they are very strong, hard working and absolutely fearless!

Doguwa as a factor, it is acknowledged by many that he is a dogged fighter, an astonishing moulder, engaging capacity builder, an accomplished politician of great substance and intellectually sound. He is the only, yes the only, member of House of Representatives who was elected under APC from Kano South. Kwankwasiyya Tsunami was unable to get rid of him in 2023 elections.

He too, masters the language understood by the opposition in the state. Apart from being fearless, in the scheme of things, Doguwa, believes in good representation of his people. One of the outspoken legislators in the Green Chamber, Abuja. Very articulate and down – to-earth.

His ferocious political engagement means a lot in dealing with the opposition voices from Kano South. If APC can be bold and serious enough to bring on board somebody like Doguwa from Kano South, the party, APC, will be dancing to victory, come 2027, in the state. He is a force to be reckoned with in Kano politics. Take it or leave it.

Kano Emirship Tussle as one of the factors, for APC to make or mar in 2027, I have only one statement here. All those that are thinking of making this lingering crisis a corridor for APC’s victory in 2027, are only telling us that they are lazy and cannot fight for the party’s victory. They are only suggesting that, they cannot work very hard for victory. They are only searching for shortcut to political victory. This stance is defeatist!

As for Garo – Dan Agundi factor, I mentioned the union above. Linking them with Doguwa to form tripartite engagement. While party leaders are busy managing party affairs, Garo – Dan Agundi – Doguwa, should be given a particular role to play in managing the youth aspect of the party, particularly against external aggression. This special assignment needs genuine people, with genuine purpose and genuine goal.

Those waiting for support from above during 2027 election, without working for victory, are only deceiving themselves. That is why it is high time for rejig, reengineering, refocus, realignment, reinvesting of ideas and running away from poverty of ideas.

Anwar, was Chief Press Secretary to the former Governor of Kano State, Dr Abdullahi Umar Ganduje. Can be reached at fatimanbaba1@gmail.com

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A Baseless Outburst: Kwankwaso’s Statement Falls Flat

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The Northern Youths Merger Group APC has distanced itself from the recent statement made by Engineer Dr. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, the former Governor of Kano State and leader of the Kwankwasiyya movement, criticizing President Ahmad Bola Tinubu’s handling of the security situation in the country.

In a press release signed by the National Coordinator of the group, Hon. Musa Mujahid Zaitawa, the group expressed its disappointment and condemnation of Kwankwaso’s statement, describing it as “baseless” and “shameful”. Zaitawa pointed out that Kwankwaso has a history of opposing the government without justification, citing his previous criticisms of former President Goodluck Jonathan and his current stance against the APC government.

The group questioned Kwankwaso’s credibility, given his roles as a former Minister of Defence, Governor, and Senator, and wondered why he would make such statements at a time when the President is working tirelessly to address the security challenges facing the country. Zaitawa noted that Kwankwaso’s comments were not only unhelpful but also undermined the efforts of the government to ensure peace and stability in the country.

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The statement further highlighted the erosion of support for Kwankwaso among his former associates, including Senator Kawu Sumaila, members of the National Assembly, and other prominent individuals who have abandoned his camp.

The Northern Youths Merger Group APC urged Kwankwaso to desist from making statements that could be perceived as inciting or divisive, and instead, encouraged him to support the government’s efforts to address the country’s challenges. The group emphasized that the Tinubu administration is committed to ensuring security and development in the country and will not be deterred by baseless criticisms.
The Arewa Youths Mager group said they have uncovered a conspiracy by Kwankwaso to use the Kano State Government to politicize the security situation in the state by leveling baseless allegations against former Governor Abdullahi Umar Ganduje and Deputy Senate President Barau Jibrin that they were involved in it, to show that the government of Asiwaju Ahmad Tinubu failed to address the insecurity problem for people of Kano when it comes to the 2027 campaign to turn their backs on the APC.

NYMG warned Kwankwaso to refrain from making statements that could provoke the youth to do illegal things that could cause discord and instability among the people’s

The group also commended President Tinubu’s efforts to address the security situation in the country, including the appointment of a new Minister of Defence and the allocation of funds to support farmers in the North.

 

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Middle Belt or Bible Belt of Nigeria? By Aminu Ayama

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Let me begin with full disclosure: I am a Muslim and proudly Hausa-Fulani — a product of both tribes, raised with the blended cultures of me begin with full disclosure: I am a Muslim and proudly Hausa-Fulani — a product of both tribes, raised with the blended cultures North-West. If that alone irritates you, simply waka pass, because what follows will be blunt, factual, and completely unapologetic.

First, let us be clear: there is no such thing as a “Middle Belt region” in Nigeria. Not geographically, not politically, not constitutionally. What exists are six geo-political zones, with the North Central being just one of them.

The growing agitation for what I prefer to call the “Bible Belt”—often disguised as “Middle Belt”—is driven largely by neo-Christian maximalists, especially from Plateau State. And Plateau, let us not pretend, has earned an unfortunate reputation as one of the most hostile places for Muslims to live, transit, or thrive. Many documented incidents show entrenched Islamophobic violence, partisan state actions, and security responses that frequently tilt against Muslims whenever there are communal clashes.

But the proponents of this so-called Middle Belt never call it what it truly is: a Christian-only political sanctuary. Even within the North Central, Christians are not the majority. Only Benue and Plateau have overwhelming Christian populations. In Kogi, Niger, Kwara, and Nasarawa, Muslims form the majority—and each of those states is governed by Muslims.

So how does a minority hope to dominate the majority? How can the tail wag the dog?

This agenda is rooted in a deep-seated hostility toward Muslims, weaponised through disinformation, propaganda, and violence. And beyond the politics, the demands are not only unrealistic—they border on the absurd.

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The dream of a cross-regional Christian confederacy stretching across Nigeria would require forcefully merging Christian pockets in the North Central, North East, and North West—communities that share almost no borders—with one another. Over 90% of the Christian minority communities they list are not even geographically contiguous with Plateau or Benue. The only connected Christian-majority areas are Plateau, Benue, and parts of Southern Kaduna.

To create this so-called Bible Belt would require mass displacement of millions of indigenous Muslims living in these territories. It would produce a Bantu-like, Southern Sudan-type enclave in the heart of a predominantly Muslim region.

We know how South Sudan turned out. Years after global Christian activists—and even Hollywood celebrities like George Clooney—pushed the “Christian genocide” narrative to break it away from Sudan, the new country descended almost immediately into ethnic civil war among people who share the same faith. The activists have since moved on. The people remain with the suffering.

This is precisely the kind of tragedy Nigeria risks if it entertains such a divisive fantasy.

Creating a religious enclave in Northern Nigeria is possible only through civil war, mass ethnic cleansing, and forceful land seizure. No legislative process can achieve it; it would require bullets, not ballots.

Even more unrealistic is the attempt to annex Christian-minority areas of Southern Borno, Southern Yobe, Southern Gombe, Southern Adamawa, Southern Bauchi, and parts of Taraba into this imaginary Bible Belt. Except for Taraba, all these states are Muslim-majority and governed by Muslims.

The Bible Belt crusaders have even stretched their ambitions to the far North-West, claiming Christian communities like Zuru in Kebbi and Southern Kaduna, and naming random Christian minority pockets across Katsina, Zamfara, Jigawa, and Kano as part of their utopian region.

Let us be honest: how does this happen without displacing millions of Muslims?
How do you build a Christian-only belt across a region dominated by Muslims without violence?
How do you redraw boundaries across the North without war?

The truth is simple. This agenda mirrors the same formula used in the Middle East—forceful displacement, land acquisition, and demographic engineering. Nothing short of massive foreign-backed militarisation could make it remotely possible.

And even then, like South Sudan, such a creation would become a landlocked, unstable, ethnically fragmented territory—a permanent war zone.

Nigeria must never walk this path.

The so-called Middle Belt agitation is not about geography or justice. It is about identity politics and fear disguised as self-determination. It is a project built on emotion, not logic. On ethnic resentment, not fairness. On religious exceptionalism, not coexistence.

I welcome any factual challenge to the points made here. Let the arguments come—but let them be grounded in truth, not propaganda.

Aminu Ayama
@aaa

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Kano APC’s Crisis and Senator Barau’s Masterclass in Political Maturity

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Senator Barau

​By Ado Isa Jagaba

​The persistent turmoil within the Kano State Chapter of the All Progressives Congress (APC) has, once again, starkly exposed the deep-seated faultlines dividing the party. Yet, amidst this chaos, a quieter but far more instructive story is unfolding—the dignified restrain and profound political maturity demonstrated by the Deputy Senate President, Senator Barau I. Jibrin, CFR, in the face of sustained internal betrayal.

​In 2021, during the crucial APC State Congress, Senator Barau, then a serving Senator and Chairman of the powerful Senate Committee on Appropriations, was systematically denied any meaningful influence. He was refused even an ex-officio slot at the ward, local-government, and state levels. Furthermore, his known allies were barred from serving as supervisory councillors, political advisers, or special assistants, with any identified supporter being ruthlessly sidelined.

​However, instead of engaging in public retaliation or fueling the internal discord, he executed a masterclass in political focus. He kept his attention strictly on delivering concrete development projects, roads, boreholes, schools, and scholarships. Often extending these dividends of democracy far beyond his Kano North Senatorial constituency.

​A Strategy of Silent Service

​His silence in the face of humiliation was not weakness; it was a strategic choice. This political maturity allowed him to rise above the petty fray and continued his unwavering service to the people. When the same elements later attempted to block his Senatorial ticket, national party elders were compelled to intervene. Barau’s perseverance ultimately paid off. He not only overwhelmingly retained his Senate seat, but was subsequently elevated to the position of Deputy President of the Senate, the fifth highest political office in the country.

​Why Barau’s Conduct is the APC’s Current Lesson

​Barau’s political trajectory offers clear, actionable lessons for the crisis-ridden party.

​Service Over Spite

Despite being denied the gubernatorial ticket and facing attempts to sabotage his Senatorial nomination, the Senator put the party first. He extensively financed the Gawuna/Garo gubernatorial campaign in 2023, played a pivotal role in the APC sweeping five of the six House of Representatives seats in his zone, and generously funded crucial legal battles all the way to the Supreme Court.

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​Empowering the Grassroots

Barau has used his federal influence to empower party faithful, securing over 2,500 APC members position of Senior Legislative Aides, Special Adviser roles and influencing numerous federal appointments. This level of patronage and direct welfare for party members is widely regarded as unmatched in Kano’s recent political history. He has also donated hundreds of vehicles and motorcycles to party leadership at all levels.

​A Figure of Unification

The widespread grassroots call for Barau to run for Governor is not accidental. It is a direct recognition of his proven ability to bridge political divides, deliver tangible results, and provide the much-needed cohesion to a fractured party structure.

​The Desperation of the Cabal

​The same cabal that once exploited the gentlemanly nature of our former leader, Baba Ganduje, to humiliate Senator Barau now finds itself increasingly restless and confused. These elements, having benefited from the system, while neglecting the party’s welfare structure, constantly envy the goodwill and resources Senator Barau has directed towards the APC faithfuls.

​Today, they are desperately oiling fabricated and baseless publications aimed at tarnishing his image and sowing division, particularly by misrepresenting his independent political activities as a direct attack on Baba Ganduje’s personality. They are the same people who, having lost their source of leverage, now resort to hiding behind the former governor, seeking continuous protection to the detriment of the party’s survival as a viable opposition force in Kano.

​Unaware that the Senator is far ahead in strategy and political manoeuvring. Their paid “data boys” propagate falsehoods, trying to portray the powerful Senator as a battle-ready opponent of Ganduje’s political empire. However, their efforts fail daily. The resources they once enjoyed are no longer flowing. They cannot match the abundant political capital and widespread support at the disposal of the Deputy Senate President. A serious political Tsunami is being witnessed as many responsible and loyal party members desert their camp, which was built on a shaky foundation of self-interest rather than genuine party welfare.

​The Clear Lesson

​While critics may correctly argue that internal disagreements are inevitable and that the party should pursue reconciliation, others contend that Barau’s track record of quiet, effective service and broad support makes him the natural candidate to restore cohesion and secure future victories.
​Whatever the political outcome, the lesson for the Kano APC is clear: political maturity, as exemplified and typified by Senator, can transform humiliation into a platform for greater influence and power. The party must acknowledge that the same hands that built critical infrastructure and funded crucial legal battles are now being asked to lead the state.
​As many Kano APC stalwarts succinctly put it, “If you want a governor who can turn the tide of the state, look to the man who turned silence into service.”

Lajawa is a Political Analyst, from Warawa Local Government, Kano State
December 7, 2025
Email: adoisajagaban@gmail.com

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