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Kano 2027 Projection : APC Chances, Intrigues and Realistic Reality

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Governor Ganduje
Dr Abdullahi Umar Ganduje,APC National Chairman

 

By Abba Anwar

As breakthroughs are unfolding in Kano politics, specifically within All Progressives Congress (APC), before one can correctly assess and conclude the fate of the party (APC) in 2027, there are factors that must be taken into consideration.

The factors, according to my understanding of the situation are as follows:

1. National Chairman, Abdullahi Umar Ganduje factor,
2. Deputy Senate President, Barau Jibrin factor,
3. Deputy Governorship Candidate, 2023, Murtala Sule Garo factor,
4. Gawuna – Garo factor,
5. State Chairman, Abdullahi Abbas factor,
6. Hon Alhassan Ado Doguwa factor,
7. Kano Emirship Tussle factor,
8. Garo – Baffa Dan Agundi factor,
9. Expectation of support from the above factor

There could be other factors in some people’s eyes. But to me, I only look at those factors that can change the political direction of either the party or the state or both. The space is still open for further discussion.

Under the National Chairman of the party Dr Ganduje, CON, the major threat that could face APC in Kano, is when Ganduje is deliberately being “humiliated” by the very party, he aided to victory in the 2023 Presidential election. Ganduje was one of the earliest callers who supported the candidature of Bola Ahmed Tinubu, then an aspirant.

Before you knew it Ganduje was able to influenced many Northern governors at the time, to came out boldly and declared that North would support only Southern candidate. That was how Tinubu made it.

Whenever some elements within the party plotted for Ganduje’s fall, that will for sure cause many damages to the party in Kano and indeed other parts of Northern Nigeria. No doubt about this! First and foremost, that could easily be translated to mean, loyalty is no longer a pride in political parlance. Just to highlight a few points on Ganduje. He is an experienced politician who knows his onions. Ask his political opponents.

For Barau, if it is true that, he is eyeing the position of Vice President, come 2027, yes the intention is bold and emphatic. But he has to have his plan on how to tread safely, with the current Vice President on board. And he has to know how to handle some notable Northerners who have either directly or symbolically indicate their interest to run for Presidency in 2031 or so.

But if his intention is still on governorship position, Garo and the former Deputy Governor of Kano State and former Minister of State, Housing, Abdullahi Tijjani Muhammad Gwarzo, are still more relevant and powerful than him from the Zone, Kano North. Part of his minuses as observed by many is, his inability to surround himself with politicians of substance and relevance.

While his one touch political strategy, is also seen as another political blunder. That those he accepted or welcomed into APC from other political parties, only get his ears during the jamboree when being celebrated as new entrants. But after that, all new comers are on their own (laughter).

Unlike Garo, Barau can hardly mention five standard politicians from across all the 44 local governments in the state. Politicians that are reliable. But in the case of Garo, many believe that, he knows, very closely, political actors down to polling units.

Many believe that, if Barau gets any ticket in the state elective positions, especially if he didn’t work for it, internal Intrigues among other things would spell doom for him. In this situation therefore, political alignments and realignments could be a safety valve for him and his ambition.

Another dust for Barau, from the standpoint I’m looking at it, is, if it is true he is at loggerhead with Ganduje, I won’t say Rest In Peace (RIP), but I would rather advice him to have a rethink.

So also concerning federal government appointments, if it is true that he has a hand in dropping AT Gwarzo, among other intrigues, so I will wait for 2027 to come. If it happens that I will be alive.

The greatest of it all, is, if it is true that he has a hand in delaying Garo’s appointment all these while, I assume that he will not be the driver of Kano’s political ambulance. Where all the injured, the severely sick and pregnants of uncertainty remain with the driver for an appointed time and destinations.

For Garo, many believe with full conviction, that, his political strength, relevance, result – oriented political practice, down – to-earth political strategy, magnanimous postulation coupled with his generosity, elevate him to be one of the few existing forces to be reckoned with in Kano politics.

Within a twinkle of an eye, Garo can give you practical names of people that can work for the party across all the 44 local governments and 448 Wards of the state.

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He, as at the time I was writing this paragraph, still enjoys the support and commitment of many former local governments Chairmen, since during Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso’s second tenure in office. Down to Ganduje’s eight years in office.

Garo enjoys similar support and commitment from many party leaders at local governments and wards levels. From caucuses of the party at all levels. Also from many former members of the Kano State Assembly. How he managed to get that, I really don’t have the slightest idea. But he is such a strong pillar within the rank and file of the party.

Whether it is true or not, that, he also enjoys the support of the former First Lady Prof Hafsat Abdullahi Ganduje, an impression that makes Gawuna to be treading cautiously, Garo believes, internal democracy is best option for imposition.

Garo’s political sins? According to some opinions, he too much loves the party and he is too loyal to Ganduje, to a fault. But that did not stop him from calling the attention of the former governor to join hands together, with other former governors and political leaders to develop the state. While setting aside their personal interest and differences.

The fourth factor is Gawuna-Garo. It is crafted this way for the simple reason that, some are of the opinion that, Gawuna needs Garo, more than the way Garo needs Gawuna. In terms of political spread across the 44 local governments, both party leaders and followers, believe that Garo was more spread tactfully and earlier than Gawuna, before 2023 general election.

Arguing that Garo was Chairman Kabo local government as Gawuna was also Chairman Nassarawa local government, but Garo was State Chapter Chairman for Association for Local Governments of Nigeria (ALGON) and Commissioner for local governments and Chieftaincy Affairs, which gave him age over Gawuna, in terms of political spread and connections to grassroot.

Some people are of the opinion that, Gawuna – Garo ticket can still hold water in 2027. Others argued in the contrary. Challenging that, it could be better for the ticket to be contested for, among all aspiring elements.

Gawuna – Garo ticket according to protagonists, may not need fresh engagement. Because, the ticket has become a household name in Kano politics. Believe it or not, if by chance Gawuna – Garo ticket is maintained in 2027, victory is not automatic. Apart from correcting the past anomalies, those who do not mean well for the party, either overtly or covertly, must be exposed and dealt with politically. If genuine victory will be the goal.

Abdullahi Abbas, as an institution, as some argued, and as a factor, is not a ready-made threat to the party at all. I don’t care whether Abbas continues to be the Chairman forever, but what I am concerned with, is, how the party can regain consciousness with genuine commitment, abandoning self – first approach to issues and engaging honest individuals. I believe there is honesty in politics. Depending on which side of the prism one is looking at.

Yes Abbas is a factor in the party, because many believe he is the perfect match for the opposition in Kano. He masters the language they understand. As far as I’m concern, Abbas or Dan Azumi Gwarzo or Mutari Ishaq Yakasai or Tumfafi or any other person can become a Chairman of the party.

But I suggest that, consolidation of the party’s strength, spread and unrelenting tempo should be left with some hardworking individuals like Garo, Baffa Dan Agundi and Alhassan Ado Doguwa, among few others. Coincidentally they come from our three Senatorial Zones. As party leaders will be occupied with managing the party, Garo-Agundi-Doguwa will be saving the party from external aggression. Without any fear of mincing words, they are very strong, hard working and absolutely fearless!

Doguwa as a factor, it is acknowledged by many that he is a dogged fighter, an astonishing moulder, engaging capacity builder, an accomplished politician of great substance and intellectually sound. He is the only, yes the only, member of House of Representatives who was elected under APC from Kano South. Kwankwasiyya Tsunami was unable to get rid of him in 2023 elections.

He too, masters the language understood by the opposition in the state. Apart from being fearless, in the scheme of things, Doguwa, believes in good representation of his people. One of the outspoken legislators in the Green Chamber, Abuja. Very articulate and down – to-earth.

His ferocious political engagement means a lot in dealing with the opposition voices from Kano South. If APC can be bold and serious enough to bring on board somebody like Doguwa from Kano South, the party, APC, will be dancing to victory, come 2027, in the state. He is a force to be reckoned with in Kano politics. Take it or leave it.

Kano Emirship Tussle as one of the factors, for APC to make or mar in 2027, I have only one statement here. All those that are thinking of making this lingering crisis a corridor for APC’s victory in 2027, are only telling us that they are lazy and cannot fight for the party’s victory. They are only suggesting that, they cannot work very hard for victory. They are only searching for shortcut to political victory. This stance is defeatist!

As for Garo – Dan Agundi factor, I mentioned the union above. Linking them with Doguwa to form tripartite engagement. While party leaders are busy managing party affairs, Garo – Dan Agundi – Doguwa, should be given a particular role to play in managing the youth aspect of the party, particularly against external aggression. This special assignment needs genuine people, with genuine purpose and genuine goal.

Those waiting for support from above during 2027 election, without working for victory, are only deceiving themselves. That is why it is high time for rejig, reengineering, refocus, realignment, reinvesting of ideas and running away from poverty of ideas.

Anwar, was Chief Press Secretary to the former Governor of Kano State, Dr Abdullahi Umar Ganduje. Can be reached at fatimanbaba1@gmail.com

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Hon. Nazir Alhassan Bachirawa Former UGG/MJB Rep APC Aspirant, Commends  H.E. Gov. Abba Kabir Yusuf on Three Years of People-Oriented Administration

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His Excellency,
The Executive Governor of Kano State,
Engr Abba Kabir Yusuf

A TRIBUTE TO HIS EXCELLENCY ON THE OCCASION OF HIS 3RD YEAR IN OFFICE*

Your Excellency Sir,

On this milestone of your third year as Executive Governor of Kano State, I and my team join millions of Kano people in celebrating a journey defined by purpose, resilience and measurable impact. The mandate entrusted to you in 2023 has matured into visible progress across every sector.

You have governed like a master builder, not chasing applause, but laying foundations. The roads you revived now pulse with commerce. Classrooms you rebuilt now echo with the voices of tomorrow’s leaders. Health facilities you upgraded now stand as refuges where dignity is restored alongside healing.

What distinguishes your leadership most is your commitment to those who came before us. By settling outstanding gratuities and severance entitlements, you honored the service of retirees and former office holders. That act did more than clear arrears, it restored faith. It reminded every public servant that service to Kano will never be forgotten.

Let us also place on record, our profound respect for one of the most difficult sacrifice, yet far-sighted, decisions of your administration: embracing APC, the party of the central government, in the interest of Kano people. Political alignment at that level requires courage. You chose principle over politics, unity over division and development over discord. By bridging Kano with the center, you positioned our state to attract resources, partnerships and opportunities that would have been out of reach. History will record that as statesmanship, not convenience.

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We also hold in deep respect the political courage you demonstrated by wielding the broom to sweep away entrenched “wall Geckos”, that is, by releasing office holders whose loyalty lay elsewhere so that your government could move forward with one mind and one direction. It was a decisive, difficult act. But history teaches that a house divided cannot stand. By clearing space for men and women who share your vision, you ensured that governance would not be held hostage by inertia. That was statesmanship.

Your Excellency, the choice of *Alhaji Murtala Sule Galadima Garo as your deputy* was a brilliant decision that grounded your administration in Kano. As a grassroots politician, he understands our markets, our wards, and the daily realities of our communities. Like strong roots that keep a tall tree firm in a storm, his close connection to the people gives your government depth, balance, and wider reach. With him by your side, the distance between Government House and the last compound in every local government is shorter, and the voice of ordinary citizens reaches the table of power.

Your Excellency, I and my team believed that your swift response to the security challenges in Gwarzo, Shanono and Tsanyawa proves that the safety of Kano people is not just ink in a manifesto, it is the heartbeat of your administration. Like a vigilant shepherd who moves before the wolf scatters the flock, you acted with urgency to shield lives and property before fear could take root. That same resolve extended to the victims and families shattered by bandit attacks, and to the frontline security personnel standing in harm’s way. You looked beyond the numbers and saw grieving families. You looked beyond duty and saw brave men and women at the frontline. Like a father who binds the wounds of his children while strengthening the hands that guard the gate, you chose to comfort the broken and fortify the brave. In that dual commitment, to protect Kano and to heal Kano, governance is revealed not merely as power, but as humanity.

Accordingly, Your emergence unopposed in the APC primaries and the calm wisdom with which you guided fellow aspirants, further affirmed your role as a unifier. You understood that when leaders contend without restraint, the people bear the cost. You chose consensus. Kano is better for it.

Your Excellency, you carry leadership like the baobab carries its crown, not for show, but to shelter all who stand beneath it. You wear responsibility heavier than any title.

As I write this, I do so as an APC aspirant for UGG/MJB Federal Constituency who, through the party’s consensus process, yielded the ticket in deference to party unity. That decision does not diminish my commitment. It strengthens it. My pledge to the good people of UGG/MJB and to this administration remains unshaken.

May Allah SWT continue to guide you, grant you strength and crown your efforts with success that outlives your stewardship. May your name be etched among those who turned vision into heritage.

Kano is moving. Kano is grateful.

With highest regards,
Naziru Alhassan Bachirawa – Ungogo

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14.2 Percent: The Electoral Arithmetic That Exposes the Fundamental Fragility of Peter Obi’s 2027 Northern Strategy

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By Aliyu Mohammed Idris, PhD,

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There is a particular kind of political optimism that refuses to be corrected by evidence. It is the optimism that survives a catastrophic electoral performance, reinterprets the catastrophe as a near-miss, constructs an elaborate narrative of stolen victory to explain away the margin of defeat, and then proceeds to the next electoral cycle with essentially the same strategic assumptions, the same candidate, and the same fundamental misreading of the political landscape that produced the catastrophe in the first place. It is the optimism currently driving Peter Obi’s 2027 presidential campaign under the banner of the Nigeria Democratic Congress, and it is an optimism that the verified electoral arithmetic of the 2023 presidential election exposes, with the cold and irrefutable precision of numbers, as a strategy built on a foundation that the facts of Nigerian political geography simply do not support.
The numbers are not in dispute. They are drawn from the official records of the Independent National Electoral Commission, verified by multiple fact-checking organisations, and confirmed by the Africa Report’s real-time election coverage. Peter Obi secured 43.0 percent of votes from the South in the 2023 presidential election and only 14.2 percent from the North. That 14.2 percent figure is not merely a disappointing performance or a correctable underachievement. It is a structural indictment of a campaign that presented itself as a genuinely national movement while failing to build anything resembling a genuinely national electoral coalition. In Gombe State, he polled 26,160 votes against Atiku’s 319,123. In Sokoto, he managed 6,568 votes. In state after state across the North-West and North-East, his performance was so marginal as to be politically irrelevant in the context of a contest governed by the constitutional requirement that a winning presidential candidate must secure not merely the most votes nationally but at least 25 percent of votes cast in no fewer than 24 of Nigeria’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.
The constitutional arithmetic is the most devastating dimension of this electoral reality. Nigeria’s presidential election is not won by national popular vote alone. It is won by a combination of national plurality and geographic distribution, a system specifically designed to ensure that the president of a federation as diverse as Nigeria cannot be elected on the strength of a single region’s enthusiasm, however overwhelming that enthusiasm may be. In 2023, Peter Obi won the South-East with majorities that were, in several states, greater than 90 percent of votes cast. In Anambra, his home state, he polled 584,621 votes. In Enugu, he secured 91.42 percent of total votes cast. These were extraordinary performances. But they were extraordinary performances in a geographically concentrated region that, however impressive its margins, could not on its own satisfy the constitutional distribution requirement that makes a presidential victory mathematically possible. The 25 percent threshold in 24 states is not a formality. It is the architectural expression of Nigeria’s federal character, and Peter Obi’s 2023 campaign failed to meet it not because of electoral malpractice alone, as his supporters persistently claim, but because the underlying electoral coalition he had built was geographically insufficient to satisfy a constitutional standard that any serious presidential campaign must plan from the outset to meet.
The question for 2027 is whether the Obi-Kwankwaso ticket has credibly addressed this structural deficiency. The honest answer, when examined against the current political landscape of Northern Nigeria, is that it has not, and that the specific political assets that Kwankwaso was expected to bring to the ticket have been substantially eroded by the events of the past two years in ways that the NDC’s campaign strategists appear to be either unaware of or unwilling to acknowledge. Kwankwaso’s political capital in the North was always most concentrated in Kano State, where the Kwankwasiyya movement had built a formidable grassroots organisation over more than a decade of investment in community mobilisation, welfare distribution, and political education. That organisation delivered Kano State for the NNPP in the 2023 governorship election, producing the administration of Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf, the man who was supposed to be the institutional expression of Kwankwaso’s continued relevance as a northern political force.
But Governor Yusuf is no longer Kwankwaso’s man. He decamped to the APC earlier in 2026, taking with him the 36 members of the Kano State House of Assembly and all 44 local government chairmen, in one of the most consequential political defections in Kano’s recent history. The Kwankwasiyya movement, which was already showing signs of internal stress before the defection, has been structurally fractured by the departure of the governor it helped elect. The political organisation that Kwankwaso was counting on to deliver Kano’s substantial electoral weight to the Obi-Kwankwaso ticket in 2027 is now a significantly diminished force operating in a state whose government, whose legislative machinery, and whose local government structures are all aligned with the APC and the federal administration of President Tinubu. Beyond Kano, Kwankwaso’s influence across the wider North-West and North-East was always more aspirational than organisational, more a function of his national profile than of the kind of ward-level mobilisation infrastructure that actually moves voters on election day.
The one-term promise that Obi has repeatedly deployed as a tool for managing northern political anxieties about southern presidential dominance adds a further layer of analytical complexity to the electoral arithmetic question, because it highlights the extent to which the NDC’s northern strategy is built on political arrangements rather than genuine political support. A presidential candidate who needs to offer a constitutionally unenforceable promise to serve only a single term in order to persuade northern stakeholders to consider supporting him is a candidate who is acknowledging, in the most direct possible terms, that the northern support he is seeking is contingent rather than organic, transactional rather than ideological, and dependent on political calculations that could shift dramatically between now and the February 2027 polling date. Political opinion across Northern Nigeria, as Vanguard’s reporting confirmed, remains sharply divided over the one-term promise, with many stakeholders describing it as politically strategic but lacking enforceable guarantees. That assessment is correct. And a northern electoral strategy built on a promise that cannot be legally enforced, delivered by a candidate whose history of party-switching has demonstrated a consistent willingness to abandon commitments when political conditions become inconvenient, is a strategy whose foundations deserve the most rigorous scrutiny.
The electoral mathematics of 2027 are not fundamentally different from those of 2023. The constitutional threshold is the same. The geographic distribution requirement is the same. The northern political landscape, far from having been transformed in Obi’s favour by the Kwankwaso alliance, has in critical respects shifted against him, with Kano State, the single most important northern electoral prize, now firmly within the APC’s political architecture following Governor Yusuf’s defection. The 14.2 percent that Obi secured from the North in 2023 was not a floor from which he will inevitably rise with the right running mate and the right messaging. It was a ceiling built by a combination of the IPOB credibility deficit, the geographic concentration of the Obidient Movement’s energy, the constitutional distribution requirement’s structural demands, and the deep cultural and political instincts of northern voters whose relationship with presidential candidates is governed by a set of expectations and requirements that Peter Obi’s campaign, in 2023 and so far in 2027, has not demonstrated the capacity or the willingness to genuinely meet. The numbers said it clearly in 2023. They are saying it still. The question is whether anyone in the NDC’s campaign structure is listening

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How DSP Barau and the FUDMA VC shielded Barau Scholars Amid Study Centres Relocation

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By Abba Anwar

The possibility of life without challenges is zero point zero. As His Excellency, Deputy Senate President, Barau I Jibrin, PhD, CFR, rightly observed and amplified.

It was during an interactive session, that was held at Convocation Arena of Bayero University, Kano, Tuesday, with the students he sponsored under Barau I. Jibrin Foundation, to study at the Study Centres of Federal University Dutsin-Ma (FUDMA), in six local governments from his constituency, Kano North. These are Bichi, Dambatta, Dawakin Tofa, Gabasawa, Gwarzo and Tofa.

The session was attended by the management of the university, FUDMA, under the leadership of the Vice Chancellor, Prof MK Usman, the students of the Centres and their parents. It was meant to discuss the relocation of the affected students from these Study Centres, back to the main campus of the university, in Dutsin-Ma.

According to the Vice Chancellor Prof Usman, the directive was from the federal ministry of education, that these Centres must relocate to the main campus of the university. Meaning, all students would relocate from their respective local governments here in Kano and move to Dutsin-Ma town of Katsina state.

During the session, after prolonged discussion of the situation on ground, by the Vice Chancellor, DSP urged all the affected students to take this as part of the challenges of life. He was live virtually during the session.

He narrated how he intervened between the university and Minister of State, Education, on how the situation could be handled without the relocation. Believing that relocation could be disturbing to students. As many students complained. Citing extra spendings and insecurity as their main reasons against the new development.

DSP Barau narrated in details, how he requested for another option instead of the relocation. Explaining that, the Minister said, there was no room for any arrangement different from the relocation exercise.

One needs to see the humane face of the DSP when he was making his remarks to the students. When he realised that, the faces of the students were requesting for reversal of the new policy, he instantly changed their mood, as he promised to take care of their transportation, keep-up allowances and adequate provision of security escorts for their trips, to and fro.

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Apart from all other responsibilities, to encourage them face their studies with all seriousness and commitment. A standing ovation greeted the Senator, during and after his remarks. Human capital development, as he believes and amplified at the session, is the mainstay of any meaningful development. Reason why he believes in investing in the education of his people. For the development of the society.

Fear of living in new environment, due to accommodation problem was allayed, as the Vice Chancellor promised that, all the relocated students would be accommodated freely in the university. It also appears here, the issue of accommodation, that both DSP Foundation and the university would work hand in hand to make the students comfortable.

A standing ovation greeted the entire hall when DSP said, “I will arrange for your transportation to and from Federal University Dutsin-Ma. I will give you resources to help you stay there comfortably. So also security will be provided.”

Among the students who were enrolled in the FUDMA’s Study Centres, some are in their final year, some in level Three, and so on and so forth. The Vice Chancellor assured all the students that, quality would not be compromise. Praising the Deputy Senate President for his unrelenting effort for the betterment of the students.

Even after the interactive session, there were handful few, who still insisted that, they would rather seek for transfer to other institutions, citing family issues as their main reason for rejecting the relocation policy. They are mostly married women. But it appears there could be other arrangement for this category of students.

Many parents who attended the interactive session, commended Senator Barau for being that magnanimous and caring for their wards. Ensuring that, they would aid in the successful relocation exercise.

Highlighting that there were many people out there who could not have similar opportunity to further their studies. Believing that, DSP’s interest in the development of his people, was what made the intervention successful from day one.

Many students and their parents, pointed out that, they were privy to leaked information that, some unpatriotic elements from Kano North were trying to politicize the new development. They further challenged that, the development was not DSP’s making or design. As a result, they vehemently reject any possible political attack of the DSP over the situation.

While acknowledging that, His Excellency, Senator Jibrin did his best through the Minister of State, Education, to see the possibility of policy reversal, but that couldn’t be possible, as revealed by the Senator, the majority of students and their parents, including well wishers, further revealed that, the students benefiting from the scholarship scheme were not members of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) only, they cut across party boundaries. So according to them, linking the relocation issue to politics is baseless, needless and uncalled for.

Anwar writes from Kano
Wednesday, 3rd June, 2026

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