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Actors, Likely Alliances And Winner Of Nigeria’s Presidential Election

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Major Presidential candidates Atiku,Obi, Kwankwaso and Tinubu

 

By Hamisu Hadejia

Voters in Africa’s biggest democracy, Nigeria, prepare to go the polls February 2023. They will elect governors, state and federal legislators and the president to lead the biggest African economy when the tenure of the incumbent president Muhammadu Buhari ends on May 29, 2023. Mr Buhari of the All-Progressives Congress (APC) came to power on a wave of populist support with the triple promises to fix Nigeria’s economy, address insecurity and ‘kill corruption before corruption kills Nigeria’. The extent of the success or failure of president Buhari and the ruling APC in fulfilling these promises remain for Nigerians to assess. However, on November 17, the federal government of Nigeria through its statistics bureau (the National Bureau of Statistics) reported that 63% of Nigerians (133 million people) are multidimensionally poor. According to the CIA factbook, Nigeria has a total population size of 225,082,083 million people as of 2022, and most of it consist of young men and women between the age bracket of 18 to 40 years.

Since Nigeria’s return to democratic rule in 1999, the high rate of poverty in the oil-rich West African country especially in the rural areas had forced many voters to barter their votes for monetary and or material rewards from power-hungry politicians. However, two recent developments could significantly curb electoral malpractices related to vote buying and results manipulation. First is the insistence by Prof. Mahmood Yakubu, the chairman of Nigeria’s electoral body, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), to deploy the Bimodal Voter Accreditation (BVA) system and to transmit ‘elections results to the INEC Result Viewing Portal (IReV) in real-time on election day’. On this issue, the INEC chair is backed by section 50 sub-section 2 of the Electoral Act, 2022 which states that ‘voting at an election and transmission of results under this Act shall be in accordance with the procedure determined by the Commission.’ If this is done, election rigging which usually manifests in manipulation of results at the local and state collation centres could be greatly curtailed, if not eliminated. Also, the rampant use of ‘incident forms’ by manipulative politicians to transform registered ghost voters into accredited ones will be significantly minimized by the adoption of the BVA system. Secondly, the decision in October by Nigeria’s apex bank (the CBN) to redesign and replace the country’s top three-naira notes (N200, N500 and N1000) within a three-month window (until January 21, 2023) is seen by many analysts as targeting political moneybags. The CBN though maintains that its currency redesign policy was to mop up the excess unbanked N2.7 trillion (85%) of money in circulation out of the total supply of N3.23 trillion. Whether or not and the extent to which currency redesign policy, introduction of the BVA system and new provisions in the electoral act 2022 will help engender free and fair elections remains to be confirmed in the forthcoming 2023 polls.

However, president Buhari’s vow to bequeath a legacy of free and fair elections in 2023 may be a promise Nigerians can hang onto if the president’s apparent neutral posture during his party’s primaries meant his absence of personal stakes in the next elections. The presidential election is of particular interest to Nigerians and to the international community. Of the 18 presidential contenders, four appear to be the most prominent, namely: former Lagos state governor Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the ruling APC, former vice president Atiku Abubakar of the PDP, former Anambra state governor Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) and former Kano state governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP). What are the strengths and weaknesses of these presidential contenders? Who is likely to carry the day?

To address these questions, I should begin with the caveat that Nigeria’s 2023 presidential election scheduled for February 25th has never been this complicated for the political bookmakers to forecast. There is no doubt that two major political parties—the ruling APC and opposition PDP—still remain the dominant parties. However, the emergence and increasing popularity of such third-party candidates as Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso has made the presidential contests unprecedentedly unpredictable. This is even acknowledged by no less a stakeholder than the electoral body, INEC, which stated on November 18 through its commissioner, Mr Festus Okoye, that it prepares for possible presidential run-off. This position is obviously underpinned by certain new dynamics on the political scene in Nigeria.

Since first republic’s Chief Nnamdi Azikiwe, no Igbo politician—perhaps not even the Biafra secessionist commander-turned-politician Chief Odumegwu Ojukwu and his All-Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA)—has succeeded in uniting the hitherto politically passive and rudderless mainly Christian south-eastern Igbo voters under one political umbrella (the Labour Party). Thus, effectively, each of Nigeria’s three major ethnic groups—Hausa/Fulani, Yoruba and Igbo— now has a formidable presidential candidate in Atiku, Tinubu and Obi, respectively. Historically, region (or ethnic group) and religion have exerted huge influence on politics and voting patterns in Nigeria. Against the backdrop of these and other factors which will be highlighted as we go along in our analysis, how could one rate the chances of these four prominent presidential contenders?

A Yoruba, Muslim and former governor of Lagos, Tinubu hails from the south-western zone which accounts for the second highest number of registered voters (18.3 million out of the total 96.3 million i.e., 19%) in the country. As a candidate of the ruling APC, Tinubu should enjoy the incumbency advantage. However, the circumstances of his winning the party’s primaries—without the overt support of the incumbent president whom he had earlier publicly lampooned in the build up to the primaries when he allegedly got wind of him not being the preferred presidency choice—meant that the incumbency factor may not yet be assured for Asiwaju. Also, the choice of a Muslim vice-presidential candidate in former Borno state governor Kashim Shettima, has pitted Tinubu against the Christians Association of Nigeria (CAN)—the umbrella body for Nigerian Christians which, justifiably or not, feels threatened by the APC’s same faith ticket. Tinubu’s choice of a northern Muslim (rather than a northern Christian) candidate as running mate can hardly be faulted on tactical ground; for although a choice of a northern Christian vice would have indeed balanced the APC ticket on both the regional and religious fault lines, that choice would have alienated the majority of voters in three predominantly Muslim northern geopolitical zones—NW, NE and NC (see figure 1)—which collectively account for 53.1% of total registered Nigerian voters. However, although sentiment of religion—as opposed to that of region (or ethnic group)— is the main thing that makes the average northern Muslim voter tick, it is highly unlikely if APC/Tinubu’s same-faith ticket will confer any extra electoral advantage on Tinubu for two reasons. First, the mood currently in the Muslim-dominated north is that of deep and widespread resentment with the ruling APC and, surprisingly, with Buhari himself who was, before coming to power, almost deified in the region. This dramatic change is attributed to worsening multi-dimensional poverty and pervasive insecurity which seem to have now thrown the average northern (and of course Nigerian) voter in to such a despondency and disillusionment that they have now effectively surrendered the choice of the next president to God—since they, without deferring to His omniscience, voted for Buhari and the result was not as expected or, for many, even catastrophic. Secondly, the PDP’s candidate, Atiku, is also Muslim, which means that both candidates cannot weaponize what Lewis (2007) rightly identifies as the most potent instrument for collective action in the Muslim north—i.e. religion. However, the apparently neutral impact of Tinubu’s same-faith ticket on the majority Muslim northern voters contrasts sharply with the protest it elicited from CAN and other prominent Christian figures and followers.

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But Tinubu is a politician with vast “political logistics” (a euphemism for money required to win elections in Nigeria) and astute organizational capabilities. He also appears to have understood the rudiments of patron-clientelist politics that typifies Nigeria. At the inauguration of his campaign in Jos, Tinubu was able to assemble all 20 APC governors, ministers, and president Buhari to flag off his campaign. He also has significant political capital to make from the rebellion of a group of five (G5) PDP governors who have, since the end of PDP primaries, appeared unwilling to support the candidate of their own party—Atiku. Moreover, northern APC governors’ open support to Tinubu before, during, and after the APC primaries will, if sincere, see them deploy institutional and monetary ‘resources’ to help Asiwaju sweep substantial amounts of the bloc northern votes. I use the conditional ‘if sincere’ to underscore the growing unease among influential northern elites/powerbrokers and electorates with the treatment Atiku is subjected to at the hands of the G-5—a group made up of all Christian governors and all (but one) southern governors. It remains to be seen whether the rebellion of G-5 governors would be an un-disguised blessing for Tinubu or one in disguise for Atiku—if the seeming G-5’s attempt to play the regional/religious cards triggers an equal and opposite reaction up north. For now, two major uncertainties face the APC presidential candidate Bola Tinubu: One, uncertainty about the commitment of the presidency and northern governors/elites whose apparent stakes in Tinubu’s candidacy appear to be limited to the fear of post-tenure probe—something they can risk negotiating with Atiku on if the current general disenchantment with APC lingers on and INEC insists on the use of BVA system which will severely curtail governors’ influence to swing their states to their favourite presidential candidate as they used to. Two, uncertainty about the real electoral consequences of the Christian community’s protests against his Muslim-Muslim ticket. Based on weight to 6 variables (political logistics, home advantage, away (dis)advantage, party popularity, ticket sensitivity, and internal/external networks)—which I codenamed Phaptien Presidential Election Predictor (PPEP)— Tinubu/APC has 35.0% probability of winning the next presidential election.

A Hausa/Fulani, Muslim, and former Nigeria’s vice president, Atiku hails from Adamawa state in the north-east— a zone which has the second least number of registered voters (12.8 million or 13.3%). Atiku’s major strengths are built on five pillars. First, the northern region he comes from has substantial electoral strength with a combined total of 53.1% of registered voters—and should it go down to the wire, he’ll be the clear favourite to sweep most of these votes . Secondly, his party’s balanced (Muslim-Christian) ticket has attracted no opposition from the Christian community. Thirdly, Atiku is also a man of enormous ‘political logistics’ and experience in political mobilization having contested for the presidency on five previous occasions. Fourthly, although without de jure incumbency advantage, Atiku looks set to gain from the lukewarm attitude of some APC politicians, ministers and other interests not favourably disposed to the Tinubu candidacy. For instance, in an interview in October, the current Minister of Labour and Employment, Mr Chris Ngige, refused to show open commitment to the presidential candidate of the ruling party. The body language of almost all current federal ministers betrays this palpable nonchalance to Tinubu’s candidacy. Fifthly, connecting some critical dots together, Atiku appears to enjoy the support of one of the two powerful camps of former military officers/rulers i.e., the camp of former General Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida (IBB) consisting of such influential retired Generals as T.Y Danjuma and Aliyu Gusau. The other one-man camp of former General/President Olusegun Obasanjo appears to be somewhat neutral—that is, if we gloss over the surprisingly very warm reception Obasanjo recently accorded the APC candidate Tinubu with whom he has had bitter political bones to pick.

However, the major challenge for Atiku now is the rebellion of the G-5 governors led by Mr Nyesom Wike—the Governor of Nigeria’s oil-rich Rivers state, which also has the fourth highest number of registered voters in the country. The extent to which G-5 rebellion will affect the chances of Atiku in the presidential election will substantially depend on whether or not INEC deploys the BVA system, which, as argued above, will significantly curtail the influence of governors to swing their states as they desire. Also, the open belligerence of G-5 members to Atiku appears to be having the unintended effects of slowly but surely shifting the sympathy of northern elites and electorates in Atiku’s favour. Just the same way the persistently vehement opposition to APC’s Muslim-Muslim ticket by some prominent northern Christians (such as the former SGF Babachir Lawal and former HoR speaker Yakubu Dogara) is beginning to shift the sympathy of sections of voters in the north towards the APC candidate. Based on PPEP, Atiku currently has 37.5% probability of wining the presidential election.

An Igbo and Christian, former governor of Anambra state, Mr Peter Gregory Obi, comes from the south-eastern zone which has the least number of registered voters (11.5 million or 11.9%). However, Obi’s strength comes from his passionate youthful supporters (nicknamed Obidients) who appear to be in the majority among the registered voters in the south-eastern and south-southern zones. Being the only prominent Christian candidate, Obi also appears to enjoy the sympathy of some voters from this community across the zones. Like the PDP, Labour Party’s Obi’s ticket is also balanced with his vice-presidential candidate, Datti Baba-Ahmad, being a northern Muslim—although an insignificant figure politically. However, in terms of ‘political logistics’, it is doubtful if Obi or his Labour Party has the potentials to ‘mobilize’ voters on a national scale. I can, on a first thought, project Obi to, hands down, win the majority of votes in the south-east and south-south and, possibly, secure the 25% minimum votes in Lagos and, probably, a few other states—that is, if current opposition against Tinubu’s same-faith ticket is of any real electoral significance. However, I can wager my bottom dollar that Obi cannot garner the minimum required 25% votes in 24 states and a simple majority in the first round just like it is also quite unclear who can actually pull that feat between Tinubu and Atiku. Now who, between Atiku and Tinubu, stands to gain or lose from the Obi phenomenon? I think the fact that the bulk of Obi’s supporters were hitherto traditionally pro-PDP and could have otherwise been supporting the PDP/Atiku would plausibly mean that Atiku has lost one of his strongholds. However, Atiku’s loss is obviously no gain for APC here. In fact, if the presidential polls go down to the wire and a re-run is required as widely speculated, alliances between Obi and Atiku look more likely than between Obi and Tinubu—for albeit sharing the same region (south) and, to a large extent, religion (Christianity), the Igbos and Yorubas do not see eye to eye politically. The two major southern ethno-linguistic groups still struggle with solving the Olsonian collective action problem, unlike the predominantly Muslim north (see Lewis, 2007). This highlights the ambiguity of Obi’s impact on the candidates of the two major parties (APC and PDP). Based on PPEP, Obi has 17.5% probability of winning the presidential elections in February.

Former Kano state Governor and Minister of Defence, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso is also a Hausa/Fulani Muslim contesting on the platform of the NNPP. Kwankwaso’s main strength derives from his influence in Kano—a state with the highest number of voters in the north (over 6 million). Kwankwaso’s populist policies have earned him the support of voters among the peasantry in many northern states. However, Kwankwaso’s political reach outside the north is limited mainly to communities of northern migrant workers resident in a coterie of affluent southern states. Like Obi, Kwankwaso is also of limited ‘political logistics’ and looks set to be to Atiku what Obi is to Tinubu. Falling out with the PDP and its top brasses including Atiku, Kwankwaso broke away to form his NNPP apparently on a personal mission to assert his influence or play the spoiler role for PDP/Atiku as some allege. If the presidential election goes down to the wire, it is more likely for Kwankwaso to ally with Tinubu than with Atiku—especially if Kwankwaso is able to weather the storm of multi-faceted pressure currently directed at him by some northern elites/powerbrokers to drop his ambition. Based on PPEP, Kwankwaso 10.0% probability of winning.

To sum up, it is obvious that the emergence of two increasingly popular third-party candidates in Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso have, to an extent, altered what would traditionally have been a two-horse race between two major Nigeria’s political parties—the APC (Tinubu) and PDP (Atiku). However, when the evidence are considered, none of the two third-party candidates has the real potentials to win the presidential contest—although they now look set to, unprecedentedly, have a significant, even indispensable, role to play in who eventually wins the ticket. Other important factors/variables that can influence the outcome of the presidential election pertain to recent amendments in the electoral act especially regarding the use of the Bi-modal Voter Accreditation (BMA) system, and electronic transmission of results from the polling units to the collection centre in real time. Also, depending on dynamics related to the actions, inactions and utterances of political actors, we can expect alignment and re-alignment of forces in both predictable and unpredictable directions going forward. But, in the final analysis, and for now—because time is of the essence in politics—the odds seem to slightly favour the PDP presidential candidate—Atiku Abubakar.

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DSP Barau’s Efforts Against Insecurity and Bills Sponsorship

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By Abba Anwar

An interesting and soundly captivating revelation goes viral and attracting accolades in the media from yesterday, when the Special Adviser on Media, to His Excellency, Deputy Senate President, Barau I Jibrin, PhD, CFR, discloses that, the Senator sponsored 42 Bills in 36 Months.

The Media Aide, Ismail Mudasshir in his press release, says, “A total of 42 bills have so far been sponsored by the Deputy President of the Senate, Senator Barau I Jibrin, in three years, from June 13, 2023, to June 13, 2026, records from the Senate have revealed.

Senator Barau, who represents Kano North Senatorial District, has emerged as the most active lawmaker in the 10th Senate in terms of private member bill sponsorship.”

The breakdown further reveals that, that the Senator sponsored 13 bills in 2023, 9 bills in 2024, 17 bills in 2025 and 3 bills in 2026.

Yes the number of the Bills shows the seriousness, commitment and how patriotic DSP is, because that number places him inches ahead of many Distinguished colleagues. He truly understands and identifies himself with the primary responsibility of a legislator in legislative process, lobby, procedure and oversight functions.

It is absolutely true that, the number of the Bills birthed under his effort are commendable. But more commendable to me, are the Bills that have link with the security of the land. In this context. As insecurity is plaguing hard in the North in particular, and Nigeria in general, anything that has to do with taming the menace and monster of this problem, is an all-important development.

I sometimes disagree with some opinions that, all our leaders are not interested in taming the menace of insecurity in the country. I do so, when I think of good leaders like DSP Jibrin. In his own capacity as a legislator, whose primary and constitutional responsibility lies on legislation, not execution, he is doing well and amazing.

This piece is not on his contributions to security agencies and personnel in his constituency and Kano state in general. It is concentrated only on security – related Bills in the Senate, which he sponsored.

To talk briefly about his constituency and state, while he did a lot in providing operational vehicles and other logistics for the Nigeria Police Force, Kano Command, alongside other security agencies, he did well in the area of infrastructural development in Barracks and other operational locations.

Insurgency and other forms of terrorism hitting hard on us, does not start and end in forests and other hideous, such physical acts are the product of planning, engagement and execution. In this digital age Cybercrimes are crux of the matter, alongside other nefarious activities. With the good understanding of the lingering bad side of this, DSP Jibrin, initiated and sponsored Cybercrimes (Repeal & Re-enactment) Bill, 2023 (SB.64).

Cybercrime is a pregnant of bad traits like hacking government systems, banking fraud, online scams FUNDING BANDITS/KIDNAPPERS, spread of disinformation that incites violence. When DSP understood that, repealing and re-enacting the 2015 Act, could aid in updating penalties, improving coordination with equally relevant agencies like Nigeria Communications Commission (NCC), Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) and Office of the National Security Adviser(ONSA). This will give law enforcement better tools to track cybercriminals. Without this, Nigeria’s digital space stays vulnerable.

Understanding that modern insecurity is not just about guns. Explosives sometimes cause more devastating damage than guns. His Excellency, Deputy Senate President sponsored Explosives Act (Repeal & Re-enactment) Bill, 2023 (SB.70). This has to do with IEDs, bombings, illegal mining explosives used bandits/insurgents. The old Act is outdated. A new Act tightens licensing for quarries, construction, mining companies. It also controls storage and transportation so explosives don’t end up in wrong hands. This, by whatever standard, is a frontline prevention against terrorism and violent crime.

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His genuine concern for our patriotic elements, Armed Forces of the Federal Republic, Senator Jibrin sponsored Armed Forces Comfort Fund Act (Amendment) Bill, 2025 (SB. 882). This has to do with the welfare of our soldiers and direct military operations. It looks at the welfare of soldiers – medical care for injured troops, support for families of fallen soldiers, barracks upgrades.

It is natural to note that if morale and welfare are low, troop effectiveness automatically drops. This Bill ensures the fund works better, so soldiers fighting Boko Haram, bandits, IPOB etc are better supported. Security depends on the reality that fighting force being motivated.

As a global citizen whose worldview and knowledge of how nations struggle against modern crimes, with digital capacity and capability, our all-round Senator sponsored Cryptocurrency Prohibition and Regulation Bill, 2025 (SB.931). This has to do with financial security. A crux of many evils. It is very clear to deeply understand that unregulated crypto is used to move ransom money for kidnapping, fund terrorism, launder proceeds of banditry.

This Bill strengthening prohibition and regulation suggests loudly that Nigeria wants to either ban high-risk crypto or put strict Know Your Customer/ Anti-Money Laundering (KYC/AML) rules. That cuts off a funding channel for criminals. Central Bank and EFCC have alarmed crypto as a security risk since 2021.

To deal with financial crimes and enhance financial security from all ramifications, he saw reason in sponsoring Virtual Asset and Service Providers Bill, 2025 (SB. 956). It looks at VASP exchanges, wallets, crypto brokers. Failure to regulate them could land Nigeria to be blacklisted by Financial Action Task Force (FATF), a global Police for money crimes.

It is globally accepted that, when a nation is blacklisted by FATF, that hurts banking and investment. Which automatically weakens the economy and creates more poverty-driven crime. Regulating VASPs means transactions can be traced, making it harder for kidnappers/bandits to hide money for their notorious activities.

His Bill the National Identity Management Commission (Repeal & Re-enactment) Bill, 2024 (SB.472), is foundational for internal security. As crimes like kidnapping, banditry and terrorism thrive on anonymity, with this Bill, a very strong, clean National ID database with biometrics helps security agencies identify suspects, track movement, block SIM cards of criminals, and secure borders. This Bill has already been passed into Law. It strengthens NIMC to capture more Nigerians and link NIN to SIMs, BVN, and the rest.

Slow development or lack of it, fuels nefarious activities among citizens. With this understanding Senator Jibrin saw a strong reason why he should sponsor and facilitate for the establishment of a development commission. Hence his sponsorship of North West Development Commission (Establishment) Bill, 2023 (SB.90).

It is largely believe that, insecurity in North West region is driven by poverty, no jobs, no schools, abandoned projects etc etc. The Commission is created to rebuild roads, schools, hospitals, create jobs in the 7 states of the region. This tackles root causes of the disturbing and lingering menace. Which means fewer youth join gangs. Especially when the Commission takes-off.

With Constitution Alteration Bills, 2023-2025, sponsorsed by the DSP, many areas concentrate on how to change security architecture. Provisions like SB.262, SB.281, SB.288, SB.403, SB.784, SB.785, SB.786, SB.793, SB.804, SB.907 deal with state police, local government autonomy, security votes transparency, or police reform. We are talking of constitutionalizing fight against insecurity.

Kidnappers den and terrorists hideouts are looked at in the Bill he sponsored, Development Planning and Project Continuity Bill, 2023 (SB.05). Under this the provisions need to do with environmental and/or operational security. It looks at bandoned projects like uncompleted buildings, roads, dams that become hideouts for kidnappers and bandits. This bill forces governments to finish projects before starting new ones. Less abandoned infrastructure means less space for criminals to operate. This also prevents waste of public funds that should go to security.

I am not only looking at the number of Bills sponsored by His Excellency, Distinguished Senator Jibrin, though commendable and encouraging, my concern in this context is the fact that out of the total Bills, 42, 5 hit security head-on, 4 addresses root causes or systems that make security easier. While 3 of the 4 have already become law, these are Cybercrimes, Explosives, NIMC, and NWDC.

I concur with His Excellency’s Media Aide, Mudasshir when he said in his press release, that, “Sponsoring forty-two bills in three years is, without doubt, a colossal legislative feat. Senator Barau, fondly called ‘Maliya’, has always been known as someone who raises the bar to enviable heights in all his endeavours.

He explained further that, “The Deputy Senate President has achieved this alongside the demanding duties of supporting the Senate President in providing leadership for the Senate. At the sub-regional legislature, the ECOWAS Parliament, Senator Barau as the First Deputy Speaker has been playing a key role in the leadership of the regional assembly.”

Anwar writes from Kano
Sunday, 14th June, 2026

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Why NDC Rep Candidate JY Yusuf Remains His Own Biggest Political Obstacle

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As political activities gradually gather momentum ahead of the 2027 general elections, the emergence of Dr. Yusuf Jibril (JY), a former Kano State Commissioner for Agriculture, as the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) candidate for the Rano, Kibiya, and Bunkure Federal Constituency has not come as a surprise to many observers.

After all, this is not his first attempt to secure the seat. However, what remains surprising is his apparent failure to learn some of the fundamental lessons of grassroots politics despite years of political experience.

Politics is not merely about ambition. It is not about appearing on ballot papers every election cycle. It is about relationships, accessibility, empathy, and constant engagement with the people whose votes a candidate seeks. Unfortunately, these are areas in which many constituents believe JY has performed poorly.

Dr. Jibril rose through the ranks of youth politics, a background that ordinarily should have made him a champion of inclusion, consultation, and grassroots mobilization. Instead, many people perceive him as a politician who has distanced himself from the very communities he hopes will elect him.

One of the most persistent criticisms against JY is his alleged inability to build and sustain meaningful relationships across the constituency. Politics thrives on personal connections. Communities expect their leaders and aspiring representatives to share in their moments of joy and stand with them during difficult times. Yet, many constituents complain that JY is rarely visible when communities face challenges or celebrate achievements.

The Rano, Kibiya, and Bunkure Federal Constituency comprises more than 30 wards, each with its own unique concerns and political realities. However, critics argue that JY’s engagement appears to be limited to only a handful of wards. Such a narrow political reach raises serious questions about his understanding of the constituency he seeks to represent.

Some political observers even argue that JY has yet to demonstrate the level of grassroots penetration, political maturity, and constituency-wide engagement expected of someone seeking a seat in the House of Representatives.

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According to these critics, his current political profile more closely resembles that of a ward-level politician than that of a federal lawmaker. They contend that effective representation at the national level requires a candidate with broad-based acceptance, deep community networks, and a proven record of engagement across all wards.

In their view, the constituency needs a politician with greater political calibre, commitment, visibility, and sustained interaction with the electorate, rather than one whose influence appears confined to limited areas.

A candidate seeking election to the House of Representatives is expected to maintain a presence across all corners of the constituency. Representation begins long before election day. It starts with listening to the people, understanding their concerns, and maintaining regular contact with them. Unfortunately, many voters struggle to identify tangible evidence of sustained engagement by JY.

Perhaps the greatest weakness of his political approach is communication. In modern politics, communication is not optional; it is essential. Before voters can support a candidate, they must know who he is, what he stands for, and why he deserves their trust. Effective communication creates familiarity, inspires confidence, and projects leadership.

Yet many political observers argue that JY has failed to establish strong communication channels with the electorate. His message is often absent from public discourse, while his interactions with constituents appear sporadic and insufficient. In a political environment where visibility and engagement determine electoral success, such shortcomings can prove costly.

A politician who does not communicate effectively leaves room for uncertainty, speculation, and voter apathy. Constituents want leaders who listen, respond, and remain accessible. They want representatives who can address misinformation, explain policy positions, and provide timely feedback on community concerns. These are not luxuries; they are basic expectations.

Responsiveness is another critical measure of political leadership. Voters want to feel heard. They want to know that their concerns matter. When politicians fail to engage with constituents, they create a perception of indifference. This perception, whether fair or not, often translates into political consequences at the ballot box.

Trust remains the currency of politics. Trust is earned through consistent actions, transparent communication, and a visible commitment to the welfare of the people. It cannot be demanded, and it certainly cannot be achieved through occasional appearances during election seasons.

As Dr. Yusuf Jibril embarks on yet another journey to the House of Representatives, he faces a difficult challenge. The constituency is no longer interested in titles, past appointments, or political slogans. The people want evidence of commitment, accessibility, and genuine concern for their welfare.

If JY hopes to convince voters in Rano, Kibiya, and Bunkure, he must first confront the growing perception that he remains disconnected from the grassroots. Elections are won through relationships, trust, and continuous engagement—not through ambition alone.

The electorate deserves a representative who is visible, responsive, and deeply rooted in the communities he seeks to serve. Whether JY can transform his political style to meet these expectations remains a question that only the voters can answer.

Buhari Abba writes from Unguwar Liman, Rano.

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Hon. Nazir Alhassan Bachirawa Former UGG/MJB Rep APC Aspirant, Commends  H.E. Gov. Abba Kabir Yusuf on Three Years of People-Oriented Administration

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His Excellency,
The Executive Governor of Kano State,
Engr Abba Kabir Yusuf

A TRIBUTE TO HIS EXCELLENCY ON THE OCCASION OF HIS 3RD YEAR IN OFFICE*

Your Excellency Sir,

On this milestone of your third year as Executive Governor of Kano State, I and my team join millions of Kano people in celebrating a journey defined by purpose, resilience and measurable impact. The mandate entrusted to you in 2023 has matured into visible progress across every sector.

You have governed like a master builder, not chasing applause, but laying foundations. The roads you revived now pulse with commerce. Classrooms you rebuilt now echo with the voices of tomorrow’s leaders. Health facilities you upgraded now stand as refuges where dignity is restored alongside healing.

What distinguishes your leadership most is your commitment to those who came before us. By settling outstanding gratuities and severance entitlements, you honored the service of retirees and former office holders. That act did more than clear arrears, it restored faith. It reminded every public servant that service to Kano will never be forgotten.

Let us also place on record, our profound respect for one of the most difficult sacrifice, yet far-sighted, decisions of your administration: embracing APC, the party of the central government, in the interest of Kano people. Political alignment at that level requires courage. You chose principle over politics, unity over division and development over discord. By bridging Kano with the center, you positioned our state to attract resources, partnerships and opportunities that would have been out of reach. History will record that as statesmanship, not convenience.

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We also hold in deep respect the political courage you demonstrated by wielding the broom to sweep away entrenched “wall Geckos”, that is, by releasing office holders whose loyalty lay elsewhere so that your government could move forward with one mind and one direction. It was a decisive, difficult act. But history teaches that a house divided cannot stand. By clearing space for men and women who share your vision, you ensured that governance would not be held hostage by inertia. That was statesmanship.

Your Excellency, the choice of *Alhaji Murtala Sule Galadima Garo as your deputy* was a brilliant decision that grounded your administration in Kano. As a grassroots politician, he understands our markets, our wards, and the daily realities of our communities. Like strong roots that keep a tall tree firm in a storm, his close connection to the people gives your government depth, balance, and wider reach. With him by your side, the distance between Government House and the last compound in every local government is shorter, and the voice of ordinary citizens reaches the table of power.

Your Excellency, I and my team believed that your swift response to the security challenges in Gwarzo, Shanono and Tsanyawa proves that the safety of Kano people is not just ink in a manifesto, it is the heartbeat of your administration. Like a vigilant shepherd who moves before the wolf scatters the flock, you acted with urgency to shield lives and property before fear could take root. That same resolve extended to the victims and families shattered by bandit attacks, and to the frontline security personnel standing in harm’s way. You looked beyond the numbers and saw grieving families. You looked beyond duty and saw brave men and women at the frontline. Like a father who binds the wounds of his children while strengthening the hands that guard the gate, you chose to comfort the broken and fortify the brave. In that dual commitment, to protect Kano and to heal Kano, governance is revealed not merely as power, but as humanity.

Accordingly, Your emergence unopposed in the APC primaries and the calm wisdom with which you guided fellow aspirants, further affirmed your role as a unifier. You understood that when leaders contend without restraint, the people bear the cost. You chose consensus. Kano is better for it.

Your Excellency, you carry leadership like the baobab carries its crown, not for show, but to shelter all who stand beneath it. You wear responsibility heavier than any title.

As I write this, I do so as an APC aspirant for UGG/MJB Federal Constituency who, through the party’s consensus process, yielded the ticket in deference to party unity. That decision does not diminish my commitment. It strengthens it. My pledge to the good people of UGG/MJB and to this administration remains unshaken.

May Allah SWT continue to guide you, grant you strength and crown your efforts with success that outlives your stewardship. May your name be etched among those who turned vision into heritage.

Kano is moving. Kano is grateful.

With highest regards,
Naziru Alhassan Bachirawa – Ungogo

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