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Actors, Likely Alliances And Winner Of Nigeria’s Presidential Election

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Major Presidential candidates Atiku,Obi, Kwankwaso and Tinubu

 

By Hamisu Hadejia

Voters in Africa’s biggest democracy, Nigeria, prepare to go the polls February 2023. They will elect governors, state and federal legislators and the president to lead the biggest African economy when the tenure of the incumbent president Muhammadu Buhari ends on May 29, 2023. Mr Buhari of the All-Progressives Congress (APC) came to power on a wave of populist support with the triple promises to fix Nigeria’s economy, address insecurity and ‘kill corruption before corruption kills Nigeria’. The extent of the success or failure of president Buhari and the ruling APC in fulfilling these promises remain for Nigerians to assess. However, on November 17, the federal government of Nigeria through its statistics bureau (the National Bureau of Statistics) reported that 63% of Nigerians (133 million people) are multidimensionally poor. According to the CIA factbook, Nigeria has a total population size of 225,082,083 million people as of 2022, and most of it consist of young men and women between the age bracket of 18 to 40 years.

Since Nigeria’s return to democratic rule in 1999, the high rate of poverty in the oil-rich West African country especially in the rural areas had forced many voters to barter their votes for monetary and or material rewards from power-hungry politicians. However, two recent developments could significantly curb electoral malpractices related to vote buying and results manipulation. First is the insistence by Prof. Mahmood Yakubu, the chairman of Nigeria’s electoral body, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), to deploy the Bimodal Voter Accreditation (BVA) system and to transmit ‘elections results to the INEC Result Viewing Portal (IReV) in real-time on election day’. On this issue, the INEC chair is backed by section 50 sub-section 2 of the Electoral Act, 2022 which states that ‘voting at an election and transmission of results under this Act shall be in accordance with the procedure determined by the Commission.’ If this is done, election rigging which usually manifests in manipulation of results at the local and state collation centres could be greatly curtailed, if not eliminated. Also, the rampant use of ‘incident forms’ by manipulative politicians to transform registered ghost voters into accredited ones will be significantly minimized by the adoption of the BVA system. Secondly, the decision in October by Nigeria’s apex bank (the CBN) to redesign and replace the country’s top three-naira notes (N200, N500 and N1000) within a three-month window (until January 21, 2023) is seen by many analysts as targeting political moneybags. The CBN though maintains that its currency redesign policy was to mop up the excess unbanked N2.7 trillion (85%) of money in circulation out of the total supply of N3.23 trillion. Whether or not and the extent to which currency redesign policy, introduction of the BVA system and new provisions in the electoral act 2022 will help engender free and fair elections remains to be confirmed in the forthcoming 2023 polls.

However, president Buhari’s vow to bequeath a legacy of free and fair elections in 2023 may be a promise Nigerians can hang onto if the president’s apparent neutral posture during his party’s primaries meant his absence of personal stakes in the next elections. The presidential election is of particular interest to Nigerians and to the international community. Of the 18 presidential contenders, four appear to be the most prominent, namely: former Lagos state governor Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the ruling APC, former vice president Atiku Abubakar of the PDP, former Anambra state governor Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) and former Kano state governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP). What are the strengths and weaknesses of these presidential contenders? Who is likely to carry the day?

To address these questions, I should begin with the caveat that Nigeria’s 2023 presidential election scheduled for February 25th has never been this complicated for the political bookmakers to forecast. There is no doubt that two major political parties—the ruling APC and opposition PDP—still remain the dominant parties. However, the emergence and increasing popularity of such third-party candidates as Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso has made the presidential contests unprecedentedly unpredictable. This is even acknowledged by no less a stakeholder than the electoral body, INEC, which stated on November 18 through its commissioner, Mr Festus Okoye, that it prepares for possible presidential run-off. This position is obviously underpinned by certain new dynamics on the political scene in Nigeria.

Since first republic’s Chief Nnamdi Azikiwe, no Igbo politician—perhaps not even the Biafra secessionist commander-turned-politician Chief Odumegwu Ojukwu and his All-Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA)—has succeeded in uniting the hitherto politically passive and rudderless mainly Christian south-eastern Igbo voters under one political umbrella (the Labour Party). Thus, effectively, each of Nigeria’s three major ethnic groups—Hausa/Fulani, Yoruba and Igbo— now has a formidable presidential candidate in Atiku, Tinubu and Obi, respectively. Historically, region (or ethnic group) and religion have exerted huge influence on politics and voting patterns in Nigeria. Against the backdrop of these and other factors which will be highlighted as we go along in our analysis, how could one rate the chances of these four prominent presidential contenders?

A Yoruba, Muslim and former governor of Lagos, Tinubu hails from the south-western zone which accounts for the second highest number of registered voters (18.3 million out of the total 96.3 million i.e., 19%) in the country. As a candidate of the ruling APC, Tinubu should enjoy the incumbency advantage. However, the circumstances of his winning the party’s primaries—without the overt support of the incumbent president whom he had earlier publicly lampooned in the build up to the primaries when he allegedly got wind of him not being the preferred presidency choice—meant that the incumbency factor may not yet be assured for Asiwaju. Also, the choice of a Muslim vice-presidential candidate in former Borno state governor Kashim Shettima, has pitted Tinubu against the Christians Association of Nigeria (CAN)—the umbrella body for Nigerian Christians which, justifiably or not, feels threatened by the APC’s same faith ticket. Tinubu’s choice of a northern Muslim (rather than a northern Christian) candidate as running mate can hardly be faulted on tactical ground; for although a choice of a northern Christian vice would have indeed balanced the APC ticket on both the regional and religious fault lines, that choice would have alienated the majority of voters in three predominantly Muslim northern geopolitical zones—NW, NE and NC (see figure 1)—which collectively account for 53.1% of total registered Nigerian voters. However, although sentiment of religion—as opposed to that of region (or ethnic group)— is the main thing that makes the average northern Muslim voter tick, it is highly unlikely if APC/Tinubu’s same-faith ticket will confer any extra electoral advantage on Tinubu for two reasons. First, the mood currently in the Muslim-dominated north is that of deep and widespread resentment with the ruling APC and, surprisingly, with Buhari himself who was, before coming to power, almost deified in the region. This dramatic change is attributed to worsening multi-dimensional poverty and pervasive insecurity which seem to have now thrown the average northern (and of course Nigerian) voter in to such a despondency and disillusionment that they have now effectively surrendered the choice of the next president to God—since they, without deferring to His omniscience, voted for Buhari and the result was not as expected or, for many, even catastrophic. Secondly, the PDP’s candidate, Atiku, is also Muslim, which means that both candidates cannot weaponize what Lewis (2007) rightly identifies as the most potent instrument for collective action in the Muslim north—i.e. religion. However, the apparently neutral impact of Tinubu’s same-faith ticket on the majority Muslim northern voters contrasts sharply with the protest it elicited from CAN and other prominent Christian figures and followers.

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But Tinubu is a politician with vast “political logistics” (a euphemism for money required to win elections in Nigeria) and astute organizational capabilities. He also appears to have understood the rudiments of patron-clientelist politics that typifies Nigeria. At the inauguration of his campaign in Jos, Tinubu was able to assemble all 20 APC governors, ministers, and president Buhari to flag off his campaign. He also has significant political capital to make from the rebellion of a group of five (G5) PDP governors who have, since the end of PDP primaries, appeared unwilling to support the candidate of their own party—Atiku. Moreover, northern APC governors’ open support to Tinubu before, during, and after the APC primaries will, if sincere, see them deploy institutional and monetary ‘resources’ to help Asiwaju sweep substantial amounts of the bloc northern votes. I use the conditional ‘if sincere’ to underscore the growing unease among influential northern elites/powerbrokers and electorates with the treatment Atiku is subjected to at the hands of the G-5—a group made up of all Christian governors and all (but one) southern governors. It remains to be seen whether the rebellion of G-5 governors would be an un-disguised blessing for Tinubu or one in disguise for Atiku—if the seeming G-5’s attempt to play the regional/religious cards triggers an equal and opposite reaction up north. For now, two major uncertainties face the APC presidential candidate Bola Tinubu: One, uncertainty about the commitment of the presidency and northern governors/elites whose apparent stakes in Tinubu’s candidacy appear to be limited to the fear of post-tenure probe—something they can risk negotiating with Atiku on if the current general disenchantment with APC lingers on and INEC insists on the use of BVA system which will severely curtail governors’ influence to swing their states to their favourite presidential candidate as they used to. Two, uncertainty about the real electoral consequences of the Christian community’s protests against his Muslim-Muslim ticket. Based on weight to 6 variables (political logistics, home advantage, away (dis)advantage, party popularity, ticket sensitivity, and internal/external networks)—which I codenamed Phaptien Presidential Election Predictor (PPEP)— Tinubu/APC has 35.0% probability of winning the next presidential election.

A Hausa/Fulani, Muslim, and former Nigeria’s vice president, Atiku hails from Adamawa state in the north-east— a zone which has the second least number of registered voters (12.8 million or 13.3%). Atiku’s major strengths are built on five pillars. First, the northern region he comes from has substantial electoral strength with a combined total of 53.1% of registered voters—and should it go down to the wire, he’ll be the clear favourite to sweep most of these votes . Secondly, his party’s balanced (Muslim-Christian) ticket has attracted no opposition from the Christian community. Thirdly, Atiku is also a man of enormous ‘political logistics’ and experience in political mobilization having contested for the presidency on five previous occasions. Fourthly, although without de jure incumbency advantage, Atiku looks set to gain from the lukewarm attitude of some APC politicians, ministers and other interests not favourably disposed to the Tinubu candidacy. For instance, in an interview in October, the current Minister of Labour and Employment, Mr Chris Ngige, refused to show open commitment to the presidential candidate of the ruling party. The body language of almost all current federal ministers betrays this palpable nonchalance to Tinubu’s candidacy. Fifthly, connecting some critical dots together, Atiku appears to enjoy the support of one of the two powerful camps of former military officers/rulers i.e., the camp of former General Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida (IBB) consisting of such influential retired Generals as T.Y Danjuma and Aliyu Gusau. The other one-man camp of former General/President Olusegun Obasanjo appears to be somewhat neutral—that is, if we gloss over the surprisingly very warm reception Obasanjo recently accorded the APC candidate Tinubu with whom he has had bitter political bones to pick.

However, the major challenge for Atiku now is the rebellion of the G-5 governors led by Mr Nyesom Wike—the Governor of Nigeria’s oil-rich Rivers state, which also has the fourth highest number of registered voters in the country. The extent to which G-5 rebellion will affect the chances of Atiku in the presidential election will substantially depend on whether or not INEC deploys the BVA system, which, as argued above, will significantly curtail the influence of governors to swing their states as they desire. Also, the open belligerence of G-5 members to Atiku appears to be having the unintended effects of slowly but surely shifting the sympathy of northern elites and electorates in Atiku’s favour. Just the same way the persistently vehement opposition to APC’s Muslim-Muslim ticket by some prominent northern Christians (such as the former SGF Babachir Lawal and former HoR speaker Yakubu Dogara) is beginning to shift the sympathy of sections of voters in the north towards the APC candidate. Based on PPEP, Atiku currently has 37.5% probability of wining the presidential election.

An Igbo and Christian, former governor of Anambra state, Mr Peter Gregory Obi, comes from the south-eastern zone which has the least number of registered voters (11.5 million or 11.9%). However, Obi’s strength comes from his passionate youthful supporters (nicknamed Obidients) who appear to be in the majority among the registered voters in the south-eastern and south-southern zones. Being the only prominent Christian candidate, Obi also appears to enjoy the sympathy of some voters from this community across the zones. Like the PDP, Labour Party’s Obi’s ticket is also balanced with his vice-presidential candidate, Datti Baba-Ahmad, being a northern Muslim—although an insignificant figure politically. However, in terms of ‘political logistics’, it is doubtful if Obi or his Labour Party has the potentials to ‘mobilize’ voters on a national scale. I can, on a first thought, project Obi to, hands down, win the majority of votes in the south-east and south-south and, possibly, secure the 25% minimum votes in Lagos and, probably, a few other states—that is, if current opposition against Tinubu’s same-faith ticket is of any real electoral significance. However, I can wager my bottom dollar that Obi cannot garner the minimum required 25% votes in 24 states and a simple majority in the first round just like it is also quite unclear who can actually pull that feat between Tinubu and Atiku. Now who, between Atiku and Tinubu, stands to gain or lose from the Obi phenomenon? I think the fact that the bulk of Obi’s supporters were hitherto traditionally pro-PDP and could have otherwise been supporting the PDP/Atiku would plausibly mean that Atiku has lost one of his strongholds. However, Atiku’s loss is obviously no gain for APC here. In fact, if the presidential polls go down to the wire and a re-run is required as widely speculated, alliances between Obi and Atiku look more likely than between Obi and Tinubu—for albeit sharing the same region (south) and, to a large extent, religion (Christianity), the Igbos and Yorubas do not see eye to eye politically. The two major southern ethno-linguistic groups still struggle with solving the Olsonian collective action problem, unlike the predominantly Muslim north (see Lewis, 2007). This highlights the ambiguity of Obi’s impact on the candidates of the two major parties (APC and PDP). Based on PPEP, Obi has 17.5% probability of winning the presidential elections in February.

Former Kano state Governor and Minister of Defence, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso is also a Hausa/Fulani Muslim contesting on the platform of the NNPP. Kwankwaso’s main strength derives from his influence in Kano—a state with the highest number of voters in the north (over 6 million). Kwankwaso’s populist policies have earned him the support of voters among the peasantry in many northern states. However, Kwankwaso’s political reach outside the north is limited mainly to communities of northern migrant workers resident in a coterie of affluent southern states. Like Obi, Kwankwaso is also of limited ‘political logistics’ and looks set to be to Atiku what Obi is to Tinubu. Falling out with the PDP and its top brasses including Atiku, Kwankwaso broke away to form his NNPP apparently on a personal mission to assert his influence or play the spoiler role for PDP/Atiku as some allege. If the presidential election goes down to the wire, it is more likely for Kwankwaso to ally with Tinubu than with Atiku—especially if Kwankwaso is able to weather the storm of multi-faceted pressure currently directed at him by some northern elites/powerbrokers to drop his ambition. Based on PPEP, Kwankwaso 10.0% probability of winning.

To sum up, it is obvious that the emergence of two increasingly popular third-party candidates in Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso have, to an extent, altered what would traditionally have been a two-horse race between two major Nigeria’s political parties—the APC (Tinubu) and PDP (Atiku). However, when the evidence are considered, none of the two third-party candidates has the real potentials to win the presidential contest—although they now look set to, unprecedentedly, have a significant, even indispensable, role to play in who eventually wins the ticket. Other important factors/variables that can influence the outcome of the presidential election pertain to recent amendments in the electoral act especially regarding the use of the Bi-modal Voter Accreditation (BMA) system, and electronic transmission of results from the polling units to the collection centre in real time. Also, depending on dynamics related to the actions, inactions and utterances of political actors, we can expect alignment and re-alignment of forces in both predictable and unpredictable directions going forward. But, in the final analysis, and for now—because time is of the essence in politics—the odds seem to slightly favour the PDP presidential candidate—Atiku Abubakar.

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Stakeholders Back Murtala Sule Garo For Kano Deputy Governor

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Resolution of the Old APC stakeholders’ meeting held last night regarding the nomination of Deputy Governor of Kano State following the resignation of former Deputy Governor Aminu Abdulsalam Gwarzo.

Based on this, His Excellency the Governor of Kano State, Alh. Abba Kabir Yusuf, gave the former APC members the opportunity to nominate 3 individuals to present to him so he can select one that everyone agrees on.

Engr. Rabiu Suleiman Bichi expressed his interest. He is currently the Chairman of the Hadejia-Jamare River Basin Authority. He received support only from the former Kano APC Chairman, Hon. Abdullahi Abbas.

Hon. Kabiru Alhassan Rurum also got support only from the former Kano APC Secretary, Hon. Ibrahim Zakari Sarina. He is currently the House of Representatives member representing Rano/Kibiya and Bunkure Local Governments.

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Hon. Murtala Sule Garo was the former APC Deputy Governorship candidate in the 2023 general election where they got a significant number of votes…

He is from the same federal constituency as the former Deputy Governor who resigned.

Hon. Garo received backing from Senator Abdulrahman Kawu Sumaila, Hon. Alhassan Ado Doguwa, Hon. Abubakar Bichi, Hon. Abdulmumin Kofa, Hon. Sani Bala, Eng. Hamisu Cidari, Hon. Abdullahi M Gwarzo, Hon. Abdullahi Rogo, Hon. Sagir Koki, Hon. Yusuf Badau, Alh. Abdulsalam AA Zaura, Sen. Bashir Lado, ATM Gwarzo, Alh. Nasir Koki, and APC state assembly members, Minority Leader, Hon. Labaran Abdul Madari, Deputy Minority Leader, Hon. Ayuba Labaran and 9 others making almost 90% of the Stakeholders.

Then Malam Salihu Takai and Alh. Usman Alhaji were also debated with, on the argument that Kano South must be considered, but they have no candidate.

Now awaiting the final Nomination by His Excellency the Executive, Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf.

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EXCLUSIVE: How DSP Barau Douses Tension In Kano’s Noisy Politics

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By Abba Anwar

Amid Engulfing Political Brouhaha in Kano State, His Excellency, Deputy Senate President, Distinguished Senator Barau I Jibrin, CFR, has recently been busy empowering hundreds of thousands of his constituents, with the sum of One Hundred Thousand Naira (N100, 000), each.

As the polity is tensed recently with the exit of two APC heavyweights, joining African Democratic Congress (ADC), His Excellency Nasiru Yusuf Gawuna, the immediate past Deputy Governor, who was the Gubernatorial flagbearer of the APC, in 2023 election and the former Governor of the state, His Excellency Kabiru Ibrahim Gaya, Senator Barau keeps eyes on the development of party members, particularly in his constituency, Kano North zone.

While politicians are busy discussing the new political wave in the state, DSP Barau has since flagged-off the grand empowerment programme for his constituents. Is in continuation of his efforts to stimulate economic activities across the Kano North Senatorial District and other parts of the state. This, at the expense of soured political engagements, being witnessed.

As his Special Assistant on Media and Publicity, Hon. Shitu Madaki Kunchi, his Senior Legislative Aide, Hon Kabiru Ado Lakwaya, along other dignitaries represented the Senator for the take-off recently. Which from there all local governments committees were dispatched to all the 13 local governments across Kano North Senatorial District. To fully take charge of the effective implementation of the programme.

The programme will go through December, this year, 2026. It is a year-round intervention. Visible tension in some quarters, already started subsiding. As people are kept busy with economic reinforcement.

A total of 15,600 persons would be given a N100,000 capital grant in 12 months across 13 LGAs of the Kano North Senatorial District. Each of the LGAs will have 100 beneficiaries monthly for 12 months. This is part of the correct measures taken to purposely engineer economic growth for individuals and their families. Grown and independent economy first, before any other thing.

After inauguration of the grand programme, the representative of the DSP, Hon Madaki, urged all committees that were raised for the activity, Special Assistants, Senior Legislative Aides to the DSP and all other stakeholders across the zone, to make sure that the programme succeeds.

When we look at it critically, we can say, Senator Jibrin is doing it differently. In a traditional way of such empowerment programmes, it is the sum of either Ten Thousand Naira (N10,000) or Twenty Thousand Naira (N20,000) that are distributed to beneficiaries. But Senator’s programme goes beyond that, with the sum of One Hundred Thousand Naira (N100,000) to each beneficiary.

With the kind of political tension ravaging the state, across, the ruling and other opposition parties, this empowerment programme comes at a better time, to douse tension and make people busy, being empowered economically.

The important and essential aspect of the programme, in cushioning the effect of hardship, felt in the land, is that the positive result does not stop at the 15,600 beneficiaries, through one year duration of the project. It is an initiative with multiplier effect. Under each and every beneficiary, out of their total number of 15,600, there are other dependents, as immediate families, other relations and friends.

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The sum of One Hundred Thousand Naira, even in urban setting, isn’t a joke, for small businesses. Not to talk of rural communities. With this development, many people will definitely turn blind eyes on the political tension springing up, in the state recently. The empowerment will take people away from being possessors of idle mind. Which has always been a devil’s workshop.

So without fear of contradiction, I can posit that, Distinguished Senator’s clear understanding of our setting, is not only an asset to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), in Kano, but also to the government and good people of the state. Bravo my Senator, Bravo.

Less interested in unnecessary political debates, criticisms and counter-criticisms, he believes that, intervention in man’s development is primary. While any other things are secondary. Because of this foresight, in the pipeline, is another plan advanced to cater for other categories of people. Under it, for example in the transportation sector, 130 vehicles will be allocated to various groups to enhance the Kano North Transport Services. This is just as 1,000 motorcycles would be distributed to commercial riders, headmasters, teachers, students and other categories of people across Kano North Senatorial District.

Women are not left out. They too, meet DSP’s magnanimous engagement. As no fewer than 1,300 sewing machines and 1,300 grinding machines are set for distribution to 2,600 women. Additionally, 1,300 deep freezers and 1,300 noodle-making machines, along with bags of flour, are set aside to small-scale business owners to support food processing, storage, and other income-generating ventures across the senatorial district.

To the chagrin of all, he doesn’t keep secondary schools students and pupils away from benefiting, under his people-oriented projects, For the young students, 1,300 bicycles are set aside distribution to school children in the Senatorial district to ease transportation challenges and enhance access to education.

While the heated polity keeps many away from remembering their constituents, His Excellency, the Deputy Senate President, keeps his eyes on all categories for accessing dividends of democracy, for safe growth and development. Under this, for sports development, jerseys and footballs would be provided to 1,950 teams. A total of 150 teams will benefit from each of the 13 LGAs in Kano North Senatorial District to promote grassroots sports development and provide opportunities for young people to showcase their talents.

Understanding the basic fact that, all parts of Kano need similar interventions, he also assured that, similar things would be extended to other zones, of Kano Central and Kano South, after its completion in Kano North.

Observers believe that, the tensions engulfing the state recently, could be address squarely through multi-faceted interventions. Like the ones brought to limelight by the people’s DSP.

Investigation reveals that, some thousands of universities students and other tertiary institutions, who benefited from Barau I Jibrin Education Foundation’s Scholarship Scheme, are planning to stage a solidarity procession for the Senator. But he turned down the plan, urging them to concentrate on their studies.

His words to them, “Please concentrate on your studies. Don’t over-heat the polity. This is not what we need. We need peaceful coexistence, mutual understanding of our political realities, growth and development of our dear state and our motherland, Nigeria.”

A gentleman with indelible taste of peace, tranquility, a quintessential leader of quality substance, strong, focused, down-to-earth intellectual, kind-hearted national leader, detribalised legislator, with sound skills for debate and enduring political actor.

He also called on those who are currently attending post-graduate courses across the globe, sponsored by the his Foundation, to also face their studies and come back home with flying colours, at the completion of their studies.

He urged them to continue as good Ambassadors for Kano state and Nigeria. While concentrating on their studies. Adding that, “Mingle with other people across the globe. Meet other Africans and see how you can aid Africa’s sustainable development.”

Distinguished Senator speaking as an able First Deputy Speaker of ECOWAS Parliament. Whose interest has always been regional integration, Africa’s development and global cohesion among cultures and settlements.

Anwar writes from Kano
Friday, 10th April, 2026

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A Remarkable Homecoming: Kano Unites in Support of Abba Kabiru Yusuf, Signaling a Strong Endorsement for Bola Ahmed Tinubu in 2027

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By: Nasiru Yusuf Gwadabe

Saturday, 4th April 2026 will not fade easily from the living memory of Kano. It is a date that has already secured its place in the history of the ancient city, not through official proclamation, but through the overwhelming expression of its people. From the very moment the aircraft conveying Abba Kabir Yusuf touched down at about noon, Kano transformed into a living theatre of emotion, loyalty, and political meaning. What began as a homecoming soon evolved into something far deeper, a dual expression of confidence in state leadership and a rising chorus of national political alignment.

What followed defied imagination. The governor could barely step forward without being surrounded by a surging crowd, eager not just to see him, but to connect with him. From approximately 12 noon until about 9 o’clock, movement itself became an extraordinary challenge. It was not resistance that slowed the governor’s convoy, but an outpouring of affection so powerful that it turned a simple journey into a historic procession.

The journey from the airport to the Government House, which ordinarily takes not more than fifteen minutes, stretched into nearly ten hours. What should have been a routine drive became a prolonged passage through a sea of humanity. The motorcade moved slowly, almost ceremonially, as if guided by the collective will of the people rather than the force of engines.

At every junction, the story repeated itself. The convoy would halt, not out of necessity, but out of insistence. Citizens stepped forward to offer prayers, raising their hands and voices in supplication for the governor’s success. These were not symbolic gestures. They were deeply felt expressions of hope, trust, and shared destiny. In those pauses, the line between the leader and the people seemed to disappear, replaced by a bond rooted in mutual belief.

Kano is not a city that offers such devotion lightly. It is politically aware,
historically grounded, and known for its ability to assess leadership with clarity. Yet on this day, its verdict was unmistakable. The scale of the reception, the patience of the crowd, and the emotional intensity of the moment all pointed to one undeniable truth. Abba Kabir Yusuf is not merely occupying an office. He is occupying the hearts of his people.

To describe him as a homeboy is to capture the essence of this connection. He is seen not as a distant authority, but as one who understands the rhythm of the streets, the struggles of ordinary citizens, and the aspirations that define Kano’s future. This familiarity has translated into trust, and that trust has now found its most visible expression in the streets.

Yet beyond the celebration of a leader’s return, a second narrative steadily took shape, one that aligned Kano’s political voice with the national leadership of Bola Ahmed Tinubu. What unfolded was not only a reaffirmation of faith in the governor, but also a growing endorsement of the President, expressed through chants, symbols, and the unmistakable enthusiasm of the crowd.

What unfolded on that Saturday goes beyond spectacle. It carries deep political significance. In a system where legitimacy is often contested, moments like these serve as powerful indicators of public confidence. The crowd was not assembled. It emerged. It was not directed. It was inspired. And in its sheer magnitude, it delivered a message louder than any campaign could convey.

That message is clear. Kano believes in Abba Kabir Yusuf. Kano stands with him. At the same time, Kano is increasingly aligning with the leadership of Bola Ahmed Tinubu, projecting a unified political direction that stretches from the state to the centre.

The long hours from noon to night were not a burden to the people. They were an offering. Every minute spent waiting, every step taken alongside the convoy, every prayer raised was a contribution to a shared narrative. It was a way of saying that leadership, when it is genuine, does not stand apart from the people. It walks among them.

While addressing the mammoth gathering that thronged the streets, Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf expressed deep appreciation for the overwhelming show of love and solidarity, describing it as a clear endorsement of his administration’s direction and achievements. He noted that such a reception was not only humbling but also a powerful motivation to intensify efforts toward delivering more developmental projects across all sectors of the state.

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He assured the people that their confidence would not be taken for granted, emphasizing that the administration remains committed to consolidating its gains and expanding its impact beyond 2027. In what appeared to be a pointed message to political opponents, the governor remarked that the unprecedented turnout had already sent a strong signal about the future, particularly to those suggesting that his tenure would be limited to a single term. According to him, the people of Kano have, through their actions, demonstrated where their loyalty lies.

“Today’s outing is no doubt an indication of your unalloyed support and endorsement for our administration to continue with the laudable initiatives that will make Kano greater,” he declared, while challenging any political contender to mobilize a similar organic gathering. The statement carried a clear undertone, positioning the event not just as a welcome ceremony, but as an early barometer of political strength ahead of the 2027 elections.

Importantly, the governor used the moment to reaffirm Kano State’s alignment with the Federal Government under the leadership of Bola Ahmed Tinubu. He emphasized that sustained collaboration with the centre remains vital for attracting federal interventions and accelerating development across the state.

In a more direct political appeal, he called on the people of Kano to translate their visible enthusiasm into electoral action by supporting President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in the 2027 general elections. He stressed that continuity at the federal level would not only consolidate ongoing reforms but also guarantee greater opportunities and development for Kano State.

The response from the crowd reinforced this call. From the airport through the major streets, chants in support of the President grew louder, blending seamlessly with those of the governor. Supporters waved party symbols and openly affirmed their readiness to stand with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, turning the reception into a powerful demonstration of dual loyalty and shared political purpose.

For many observers, this was more than a moment of celebration. It was a declaration of alignment. The people of Kano, through their sheer numbers and visible enthusiasm, projected confidence not only in their governor but also in the leadership at the centre. The endorsement of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu was not staged. It emerged organically, carried on the voices of thousands who see continuity as a pathway to progress.

This groundswell of support speaks to a broader political reality. Kano remains one of the most influential political blocs in the country, and its direction often shapes national outcomes. By rallying behind both Abba Kabir Yusuf and President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the people have signaled a convergence of interests that could prove decisive in the coming electoral cycle.

The electrifying reception, marked by chants, music, and a sea of party symbols, brought movement across key roads to a standstill as residents came out in solidarity. The massive turnout underscores the governor’s growing political influence and the deepening connection between his administration and the people. It also reflected the role of grassroots mobilization across all levels, drawing participation from party executives, political office holders, traders, youth groups, and entertainers. The crowd took nearly eight hours to escort the governor from the airport to the Government House, a journey that ordinarily lasts just fifteen minutes.

The reception stands as one of the largest in Kano’s recent political history, second only to the massive turnout recorded on 12th January 2024 following the Supreme Court judgment. In both instances, the people’s response has served as a clear signal of political direction and public sentiment.

As the governor finally made his way through the vast crowd late in the evening, the significance of the moment remained unmistakable. This was more than a return from official engagements. It was a reaffirmation of trust, a visible endorsement of leadership, and a powerful reminder of the bond between Kano and its governor.

Saturday, 4th April 2026 will be remembered not just for the crowd, but for what the crowd represented. It will be remembered as the day Kano stood still, not in silence, but in solidarity. A day when the streets spoke, when the people declared their confidence, and when a leader’s journey home became a collective experience.

And as the echoes of that historic welcome continue to ripple across the political landscape, one conclusion rises above all others. This was not merely a reception. It was a statement of strength, a public reaffirmation of mandate, and a quiet but powerful signal of what lies ahead. In the language of politics, moments like these are not accidental.

They are indicators of momentum, of acceptance, and of a growing consensus. If the future is shaped by the will of the people, then Kano has already begun to write its next chapter, one that places Abba Kabir Yusuf firmly at its center, while echoing a resounding and unmistakable endorsement of Bola Ahmed Tinubu as the path forward to 2027.

Nasiru Yusuf Gwadabe, a Veteran Journalist, retired Editor with CTV writes from Kano

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