Connect with us

Politics

14.2 Percent: The Electoral Arithmetic That Exposes the Fundamental Fragility of Peter Obi’s 2027 Northern Strategy

Published

1 month ago

on

 

 

By Aliyu Mohammed Idris, PhD,

Advert

There is a particular kind of political optimism that refuses to be corrected by evidence. It is the optimism that survives a catastrophic electoral performance, reinterprets the catastrophe as a near-miss, constructs an elaborate narrative of stolen victory to explain away the margin of defeat, and then proceeds to the next electoral cycle with essentially the same strategic assumptions, the same candidate, and the same fundamental misreading of the political landscape that produced the catastrophe in the first place. It is the optimism currently driving Peter Obi’s 2027 presidential campaign under the banner of the Nigeria Democratic Congress, and it is an optimism that the verified electoral arithmetic of the 2023 presidential election exposes, with the cold and irrefutable precision of numbers, as a strategy built on a foundation that the facts of Nigerian political geography simply do not support.
The numbers are not in dispute. They are drawn from the official records of the Independent National Electoral Commission, verified by multiple fact-checking organisations, and confirmed by the Africa Report’s real-time election coverage. Peter Obi secured 43.0 percent of votes from the South in the 2023 presidential election and only 14.2 percent from the North. That 14.2 percent figure is not merely a disappointing performance or a correctable underachievement. It is a structural indictment of a campaign that presented itself as a genuinely national movement while failing to build anything resembling a genuinely national electoral coalition. In Gombe State, he polled 26,160 votes against Atiku’s 319,123. In Sokoto, he managed 6,568 votes. In state after state across the North-West and North-East, his performance was so marginal as to be politically irrelevant in the context of a contest governed by the constitutional requirement that a winning presidential candidate must secure not merely the most votes nationally but at least 25 percent of votes cast in no fewer than 24 of Nigeria’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.
The constitutional arithmetic is the most devastating dimension of this electoral reality. Nigeria’s presidential election is not won by national popular vote alone. It is won by a combination of national plurality and geographic distribution, a system specifically designed to ensure that the president of a federation as diverse as Nigeria cannot be elected on the strength of a single region’s enthusiasm, however overwhelming that enthusiasm may be. In 2023, Peter Obi won the South-East with majorities that were, in several states, greater than 90 percent of votes cast. In Anambra, his home state, he polled 584,621 votes. In Enugu, he secured 91.42 percent of total votes cast. These were extraordinary performances. But they were extraordinary performances in a geographically concentrated region that, however impressive its margins, could not on its own satisfy the constitutional distribution requirement that makes a presidential victory mathematically possible. The 25 percent threshold in 24 states is not a formality. It is the architectural expression of Nigeria’s federal character, and Peter Obi’s 2023 campaign failed to meet it not because of electoral malpractice alone, as his supporters persistently claim, but because the underlying electoral coalition he had built was geographically insufficient to satisfy a constitutional standard that any serious presidential campaign must plan from the outset to meet.
The question for 2027 is whether the Obi-Kwankwaso ticket has credibly addressed this structural deficiency. The honest answer, when examined against the current political landscape of Northern Nigeria, is that it has not, and that the specific political assets that Kwankwaso was expected to bring to the ticket have been substantially eroded by the events of the past two years in ways that the NDC’s campaign strategists appear to be either unaware of or unwilling to acknowledge. Kwankwaso’s political capital in the North was always most concentrated in Kano State, where the Kwankwasiyya movement had built a formidable grassroots organisation over more than a decade of investment in community mobilisation, welfare distribution, and political education. That organisation delivered Kano State for the NNPP in the 2023 governorship election, producing the administration of Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf, the man who was supposed to be the institutional expression of Kwankwaso’s continued relevance as a northern political force.
But Governor Yusuf is no longer Kwankwaso’s man. He decamped to the APC earlier in 2026, taking with him the 36 members of the Kano State House of Assembly and all 44 local government chairmen, in one of the most consequential political defections in Kano’s recent history. The Kwankwasiyya movement, which was already showing signs of internal stress before the defection, has been structurally fractured by the departure of the governor it helped elect. The political organisation that Kwankwaso was counting on to deliver Kano’s substantial electoral weight to the Obi-Kwankwaso ticket in 2027 is now a significantly diminished force operating in a state whose government, whose legislative machinery, and whose local government structures are all aligned with the APC and the federal administration of President Tinubu. Beyond Kano, Kwankwaso’s influence across the wider North-West and North-East was always more aspirational than organisational, more a function of his national profile than of the kind of ward-level mobilisation infrastructure that actually moves voters on election day.
The one-term promise that Obi has repeatedly deployed as a tool for managing northern political anxieties about southern presidential dominance adds a further layer of analytical complexity to the electoral arithmetic question, because it highlights the extent to which the NDC’s northern strategy is built on political arrangements rather than genuine political support. A presidential candidate who needs to offer a constitutionally unenforceable promise to serve only a single term in order to persuade northern stakeholders to consider supporting him is a candidate who is acknowledging, in the most direct possible terms, that the northern support he is seeking is contingent rather than organic, transactional rather than ideological, and dependent on political calculations that could shift dramatically between now and the February 2027 polling date. Political opinion across Northern Nigeria, as Vanguard’s reporting confirmed, remains sharply divided over the one-term promise, with many stakeholders describing it as politically strategic but lacking enforceable guarantees. That assessment is correct. And a northern electoral strategy built on a promise that cannot be legally enforced, delivered by a candidate whose history of party-switching has demonstrated a consistent willingness to abandon commitments when political conditions become inconvenient, is a strategy whose foundations deserve the most rigorous scrutiny.
The electoral mathematics of 2027 are not fundamentally different from those of 2023. The constitutional threshold is the same. The geographic distribution requirement is the same. The northern political landscape, far from having been transformed in Obi’s favour by the Kwankwaso alliance, has in critical respects shifted against him, with Kano State, the single most important northern electoral prize, now firmly within the APC’s political architecture following Governor Yusuf’s defection. The 14.2 percent that Obi secured from the North in 2023 was not a floor from which he will inevitably rise with the right running mate and the right messaging. It was a ceiling built by a combination of the IPOB credibility deficit, the geographic concentration of the Obidient Movement’s energy, the constitutional distribution requirement’s structural demands, and the deep cultural and political instincts of northern voters whose relationship with presidential candidates is governed by a set of expectations and requirements that Peter Obi’s campaign, in 2023 and so far in 2027, has not demonstrated the capacity or the willingness to genuinely meet. The numbers said it clearly in 2023. They are saying it still. The question is whether anyone in the NDC’s campaign structure is listening

Related Topics:

Politics

2027: Loyalty Reloaded As Gov Yusuf Picks Deputy Garo As Running Mate

Published

2 days ago

on

July 14, 2026

By

 

By Abba Anwar

I chose to caption this piece “2027 Loyalty Reloaded…” bearing in mind what His Excellency Governor of Kano State, Abba Kabir Yusuf said, to show his absolute confidence in his Deputy His Excellency Murtala Sule Garo, as governance pays back for loyalty.

It was at the instance of all federal political appointees meeting with the governor at Governor’s Lodge, Asokoro, Abuja, when the Governor bluntly announced to the faces and hearing of all that, “I have no regrets for choosing Garo as my Deputy in the last few months, and he has proven to be the right choice so far. I want to confirm to you that I have every confidence in him.”

This puts a halt to all speculations before picking HE Garo as Deputy Governor that, his loyalty could be divided when appointed as the Deputy Governor after the resignation of the former Governor, His Excellency Aminu Abdussalam Gwarzo.

To zip the mouth and bad intention of some politicians and to let everyone who cares to listen that, in less than four months, Governor Yusuf believes in HE Garo’s total and absolute loyalty, he picks him again to become his running mate come 2027.

He disclosed this during the meeting as disclosed by Sunusi Bature Dawakin Tofa Director General Media and Publicity, in a press release issued, that “Kano State Governor, Alhaji Abba Kabir Yusuf, has officially announced the nomination of his Deputy, His Excellency Murtala Sule Galadima Garo, as his running mate for the 2027 governorship election.”

Advert

The release discloses that, “He expressed satisfaction with the working relationship between them, noting that Garo had demonstrated competence, dedication, and a strong sense of responsibility in the discharge of his duties.” I now understand the main reason and wisdom behind Governor’s bold decision in sending his Deputy as his representative, in major events. Within and outside Kano.

If not because of this trust and confidence the Governor has in his Deputy he wouldn’t have sent the Deputy to stand for him, during the visit of the high-powered delegation from European Union Ambassadors, USA Independence Day held in US Embassy Abuja and the just concluded Northern Governors Security Summit, among many other equally important events. Only loyalty, from Deputy’s side and confidence from Governor’s side, give this golden opportunity.

Part of the testimony given by the Governor for his choice in HE Garo, as running mate for 2027 is for his “… outstanding loyalty, commitment, and unwavering passion for the development of Kano State since assuming office as Deputy Governor,” speaks volumes about Deputy’s place in both the heart of his principal, the Governor and the art of governance in the state. By now HE Garo understands most significantly and clearly that, loyalty pays. What pays the most, is trust in Allah’s overall decisions, as says repeatedly by the Deputy. All those close to him know what I’m saying exactly.

The release reiterated that, the Governor has all the backing and goodwill support for the Deputy, indicating the nadir of the confidence of the Governor in his Deputy. As the release reads, “The Governor also passed a vote of confidence on the Deputy Governor, describing him as a dependable partner whose contributions have strengthened the administration’s drive to deliver meaningful development across Kano State.”

As a responsible leader who cares about the the unity, strength and the survival of the party beyond election periods, he urged, “… party leaders, political appointees, and supporters to remain united and committed as the administration continues to consolidate on its achievements while preparing for the 2027 general elections.”

By whatever standard and measurement, the union between Governor Yusuf and his Deputy, Garo, started on sound footing with the full support, cooperation and honest engagement of the Governor. While the Deputy is paying back with true loyalty embedded with good substance.

This features stronger administration and focused leadership. The way HE Garo responds to party demands and governance, with the consent of his principal, the Governor, it becomes clearer that, it will be a finer, healthier and merrier 2027 and beyond.

Anwar writes from Kano
Tuesday, 14th July, 2026

Continue Reading

Politics

How Umar Haruna Doguwa Is Uniting Kano APC for Tinubu and Governor Abba to Succeed in 2027 Elections

Published

4 days ago

on

July 12, 2026

By

 

By Sadiq Ali Sango

As political activities gradually gather momentum ahead of the 2027 general elections, the importance of party unity cannot be overstated. Political parties that enter elections divided often struggle to achieve their objectives, regardless of the popularity of their candidates.

In Kano State, one of Nigeria’s most politically influential states, the Chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Umar Haruna Doguwa, appears to have made unity the cornerstone of his leadership.

Since assuming office as chairman of the Kano APC, Doguwa has devoted considerable energy to reconciling party members, strengthening internal structures and restoring confidence among stakeholders.

His leadership style has been characterised by consultation, inclusiveness and constant engagement with party leaders and grassroots members across the state.

One of the notable developments under his leadership has been the return of key political figures to the APC.

The decision of former Kano State Governor, Ibrahim Shekarau, and prominent politician Bello Hayatu Gwarzo to join the party has been widely interpreted by supporters as evidence of renewed confidence in the APC’s leadership and direction in Kano.

Advert

Another important test of leadership came during the party’s primary elections. In many states, party primaries often end in prolonged disputes and defections.

In Kano, however, the APC leadership worked to minimise disagreements. Where misunderstandings arose, Doguwa reportedly prioritised dialogue and reconciliation, meeting with stakeholders and encouraging peaceful resolutions.

These efforts helped the party move forward with fewer internal divisions.

His commitment to party cohesion is perhaps most visible in his ongoing tour of Kano’s 44 local government areas. Rather than limiting his engagements to state-level meetings, he has chosen to visit local party structures, meeting with elders, women, youth groups and ward executives.

The objective is to strengthen relationships, address concerns, encourage unity and prepare the party’s grassroots machinery well ahead of the next elections.

Supporters believe this grassroots mobilisation is essential because Kano has historically played a decisive role in Nigeria’s electoral politics.

A united and well-organised party structure, they argue, will be better positioned to mobilise voters and conduct effective campaigns.

Doguwa’s political mission extends beyond managing the affairs of the APC. His ambition is to build a united platform capable of supporting President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf and all APC candidates in achieving success in the 2027 elections. This objective explains his emphasis on reconciliation, inclusion and grassroots engagement.

Doguwa believes that electoral success begins long before campaigns officially commence. It starts with building trust among party members, resolving differences early and ensuring that every stakeholder feels valued. His consultations across the state reflect that philosophy.

Politics is ultimately about organisation as much as popularity. Elections are won not only through campaign rallies but also through strong party structures, disciplined members and effective grassroots mobilisation.

As the countdown to the next general elections continues, sustaining internal cohesion may prove to be one of the APC’s greatest assets. If the current reconciliation efforts are maintained and the party continues to consolidate its support base, Kano APC could approach the 2027 elections with greater confidence and organisational strength than it has enjoyed in recent years.

Sadiq Ali Sango is an APC Youth Activist based in Kano

Continue Reading

Politics

Kano Secured: HE Garo Represents Gov Yusuf at High-Level Northern Security Summit

Published

5 days ago

on

July 11, 2026

By

 

By Abba Anwar

Kano State Deputy Governor, His Excellency Murtala Sule Garo represented his principal, His Excellency Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf, at the recently held Northern Nigeria Security Summit in Kaduna. An action commended by experts bearing in mind the legacy left by HE Garo in the promotion of peace and security when he was Commissioner for Local Governments and Chieftaincy Affairs. Among other reasons.

It is believe that, Governor Yusuf saw wisdom in sending his Deputy, for the simple reason that, he clearly understands how HE Garo was instrumental in the peace the state enjoyed before his coming to power in 2023. In the last administration.

At the state level, before the coming of this administration, the then administration gave Garo, then Commissioner, some portion of the responsibility of promoting peace and fighting insecurity across our 44 local government areas. Go and ask for further details from the then Chairmen of the LGs. And see productivity and commitment in place.

Zonal Security Summits were held across the three Senatorial Districts the, when local government councils played key role in collaboration with security agencies in managing the entire process. As Commissioner for local governments, Garo proved his mettle in the areas of peace building and standardization of security architecture and network.

Those who were involved in the process then, can better understand what this piece is saying. One cannot take away the credit of peace building and secured environment in the state, in the last administration. That became possible and sustainable due to the full cooperation of the security agencies and the proper teamwork of relevant stakeholders.

I was amazed when I spotted HE Garo in Kaduna in the midst of Northern states’ governors attending an all-important and all-inclusive Northern Nigeria Security Summit, which is still in the labor room trying to give birth to Northern Nigeria Security Trust Fund. Where each and every state is earmarked and expected to contribute One Billion Naira (N1b) monthly.

The Summit was under the leadership of the Chairman of the Northern Governors’ Forum, Governor of Gombe state, His Excellency Muhammad Yahaya Inuwa, came at the right time and with the right people, our able Governors. May Almighty Allah see you through.

Advert

I saw wisdom in Governor Yusuf’s decision to send his Deputy HE Garo to represent him there. Apart from being another indication showcasing how confident the Governor is, in his Deputy, it also clearly shows that HE Yusuf knows and understands why teamwork with clear purpose means.

I can still remember vividly clear that in the last administration Garo’s unwavering support to peaceful Kano, through enhancement of community policing strategy and management, stemming from our local communities was visible and encouraging. Kudos to all the then local governments Chairmen, across all the 44 local governments in the state.

With this Security Trust Fund, if allowed to work, with the federal cooperation, the eluded peace in the North could start rebooting. Especially when political will is embedded in the entire process.

When Governor Inuwa highlighted that, “Across the North, in every state, the threats posed by banditry, terrorism, kidnapping, drug abuse and other forms of criminality have continued to undermine peaceful coexistence, disrupt livelihoods and weaken social cohesion, thereby slowing down the pace of development in our great region,” what readily came to my mind was, how Governor Yusuf’s administration is putting efforts on youth empowerment and fight against drug abuse.

To fight the nefarious activities of the underworld, Kano established Neighborhood Watch Guards few months back. They are dispatched to communities for enhancing our security system and strategy. Vices like house burglary, phone snatching, etc are downsized profoundly. Unlike before the coming on board of the Watch. This also helps in drastically changing the narrative on youth restiveness.

Few days to the Northern Nigeria Security Summit, Kano state Governor Yusuf announced the establishment of the High-Powered State Task Force on Fight Against Drug Abuse. What is so fascinating, is not the body, but the leadership and its structure. The leadership of the Task Force alone shows political will and genuine commitment from the part of the government.

In other words, Kano has been aligning with the philosophy behind the spirit of the just unveiled Northern Nigeria Security Summit, which gives birth to the Security Trust Fund.

The Governor’s representative in the person of HE Garo reveals much in the honest commitment of the state. Being one of the brains behind Kano’s feats in the area of peace and security, as obtained in the last administration. His contributions towards the peaceful Kano then, was spotted by many security operatives at the time. So sending him to represent his principal, the Governor, at the Northern Security Summit, was not by mere coincidence. It was assessed, deliberated upon, agreed and soundly designed.

The LOYAL DEPUTY (emphasis mine), as described by Governor Yusuf in recently held public event, believes in charting a new course for the security of Kano, Northern Nigeria and the country in general. In so many private discussions long before now, since his time as Commissioner in the last administration, I know how deeply concerned he has been in the security of the Northern Nigeria. So exposing him to this regional effort is commendable by all standard.

Anwar writes from Kano
Saturday, 11th July, 2026

Continue Reading

Trending