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APC,Atiku And The Arrival At The Junction Of The Devil’s Alternative

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Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar

 

By Bala Ibrahim.

In his book, the Devil’s Alternative, investigative journalist Frederick Forsyth opined thus, “Whichever option I choose, men are going to die.”

In what seems similar to what is playing out today, between Russia and the Ukraine, Forsyth’s novel foretold a situation in which the entire Soviet Union wheat crop is destroyed by a devastating disaster, and the population was forced to come face to face with starvation.

Forsyth said America was ready to offer assistance by devising a plan to trade vital food resources with the Russians, in exchange for sensitive political information. But the Politburo, the policymaking committee of the Russian communist party had other ideas: the invasion of Western Europe, to commandeer the food for themselves.

The American president and leaders from around the globe were faced by a difficult choice: should they allow the loss of thousands to save the lives of many more?

With the completion of the PDP primaries this morning, and the choice of Atiku Abubakar as the presidential flag bearer of the party, the APC has arrived at the junction of the Devil’s alternative. Whichever option it chooses, the likelihood of a northern president has become predominantly pre-eminent for Nigeria.

Should the APC follow the footpath of the PDP, or move with the mood of equity, by allowing the emergence of a southern candidate, which could come with some casualty?

Like the dilemma of the American president and leaders from around the globe, should the APC allow the loss of victory to save the terms of a gentlemanly agreement in the name of zoning?

For starters, am not an Atiku supporter, so don’t make any mistake, by thinking that I am promoting his cause. I belong to the other side. But if the truth must be told, Atiku is now the ace, which cannot be axed without the advent of an adversity.

It’s either the APC follow suit by fielding a northern candidate, or get prepared to be crushed at the polls, come 2023.

The emergence of Atiku Abubakar is not accidental, it was meticulously calculated by most of the PDP stake holders, including the garrison governor of Rivers, H.E. Ezenwo Nyesom Wike, I think.

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Although some people are accusing governor Aminu Tambuwal of betraying Wike, by ditching him at the doorstep of the bridge, methinks it was a deal dutifully and beautifully done and delivered. Only the naive, who think that because in the 2019 convention, Wike supported Aminu Tambuwal against Atiku Abubakar, now is the time for pay back. No, good political scientists sometimes deliberately design disagreements in order to arrive at an agreement, and in the process, they deceive the gullible.

When my brother and colleague, Jaafar Jaafar, put out a tweet thus: “To the PDP, Wike is the proverbial lizard that perched on the lip of a clay pot. If they throw stone at him, they will break the pot, and if they allow him, he will pollute the water”, I said Gbwam! my brother has gotten the hoax. The whole thing, including the abracadabra of accusing Kwankwaso, who has since moved to the NNPP, was meant to reboot a ruse.

The biggest challenge before the APC is how to confront the conundrum, especially with regards the fate of the national leader of the party, Chief Bola Ahmed Tinubu, and the thorny issue of zoning.

One big relief for the APC on the issue of zoning is that the principal promoter of the issue is the PDP, and from day one, Atiku Abubakar supported the idea because he thought he was going to be the biggest beneficiary.

When the PDP came to power in 1999, it was based on the unanimous agreement to zone the presidency to the Southwest, to placate the southerners, who were agitated over the death of Chief MKO Abiola, the presumed winner of the annulled 1993 presidential election.

Hand picked Obasanjo, was quick to convince and handpicked Atiku, who had then won the Adamawa state governorship election, to jettison the seat of the governor and move to Abuja as Vice President.

Grapevine information said Obasanjo initially promised to do only one term, but later reneged on that and persuaded Atiku that after two terms as Vice President, he would continue in the villa for another 8 years as President. So he allowed him a second term.

However, Obasanjo did not only do two terms, but tried to run for a third term in 2007. Unhappy with Obasanjo, Atiku fought the third term agenda tooth and nail. For that, Obasanjo is said to have said, he would ensure Atiku never become the president of Nigeria.

So like the APC, with the emergence of Atiku as the candidate of the PDP, Obasanjo is now at the junction of the Devil’s alternative, as power is destined to remain in the north.

It may be recalled that in his book, ‘My Command’, Obasanjo said and I quote, “the British had always wanted the north to rule because it was more amenable and less radical and refractory than the south”. So now that the party that introduced zoning and made him the first beneficiary, has jettisoned the zoning in readiness to keep power in the north, as envisaged by the British, and give the power to his sworn enemy, he has to look for an escape route out of the junction of the Devil’s alternative.

But, like Tinubu said in his congratulatory message to Atiku, PDP would be burdened to explain why Nigerians should give it another opportunity, after squandering 16 years at the central government without much to show. Because, Nigerians are yet to forget the national ruin and mismanagement of our country for 16 years by successive PDP administration and this bad memory will dog the campaign of the PDP Candidate.

Yes, with PDP’s decision to field Atiku, APC may inevitably see it as a patriotic duty to also field in a northerner, because, the party is at the junction of the Devil’s alternative: whichever option it chooses, men are going to die.

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A Baseless Outburst: Kwankwaso’s Statement Falls Flat

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The Northern Youths Merger Group APC has distanced itself from the recent statement made by Engineer Dr. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, the former Governor of Kano State and leader of the Kwankwasiyya movement, criticizing President Ahmad Bola Tinubu’s handling of the security situation in the country.

In a press release signed by the National Coordinator of the group, Hon. Musa Mujahid Zaitawa, the group expressed its disappointment and condemnation of Kwankwaso’s statement, describing it as “baseless” and “shameful”. Zaitawa pointed out that Kwankwaso has a history of opposing the government without justification, citing his previous criticisms of former President Goodluck Jonathan and his current stance against the APC government.

The group questioned Kwankwaso’s credibility, given his roles as a former Minister of Defence, Governor, and Senator, and wondered why he would make such statements at a time when the President is working tirelessly to address the security challenges facing the country. Zaitawa noted that Kwankwaso’s comments were not only unhelpful but also undermined the efforts of the government to ensure peace and stability in the country.

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The statement further highlighted the erosion of support for Kwankwaso among his former associates, including Senator Kawu Sumaila, members of the National Assembly, and other prominent individuals who have abandoned his camp.

The Northern Youths Merger Group APC urged Kwankwaso to desist from making statements that could be perceived as inciting or divisive, and instead, encouraged him to support the government’s efforts to address the country’s challenges. The group emphasized that the Tinubu administration is committed to ensuring security and development in the country and will not be deterred by baseless criticisms.
The Arewa Youths Mager group said they have uncovered a conspiracy by Kwankwaso to use the Kano State Government to politicize the security situation in the state by leveling baseless allegations against former Governor Abdullahi Umar Ganduje and Deputy Senate President Barau Jibrin that they were involved in it, to show that the government of Asiwaju Ahmad Tinubu failed to address the insecurity problem for people of Kano when it comes to the 2027 campaign to turn their backs on the APC.

NYMG warned Kwankwaso to refrain from making statements that could provoke the youth to do illegal things that could cause discord and instability among the people’s

The group also commended President Tinubu’s efforts to address the security situation in the country, including the appointment of a new Minister of Defence and the allocation of funds to support farmers in the North.

 

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Middle Belt or Bible Belt of Nigeria? By Aminu Ayama

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Let me begin with full disclosure: I am a Muslim and proudly Hausa-Fulani — a product of both tribes, raised with the blended cultures of me begin with full disclosure: I am a Muslim and proudly Hausa-Fulani — a product of both tribes, raised with the blended cultures North-West. If that alone irritates you, simply waka pass, because what follows will be blunt, factual, and completely unapologetic.

First, let us be clear: there is no such thing as a “Middle Belt region” in Nigeria. Not geographically, not politically, not constitutionally. What exists are six geo-political zones, with the North Central being just one of them.

The growing agitation for what I prefer to call the “Bible Belt”—often disguised as “Middle Belt”—is driven largely by neo-Christian maximalists, especially from Plateau State. And Plateau, let us not pretend, has earned an unfortunate reputation as one of the most hostile places for Muslims to live, transit, or thrive. Many documented incidents show entrenched Islamophobic violence, partisan state actions, and security responses that frequently tilt against Muslims whenever there are communal clashes.

But the proponents of this so-called Middle Belt never call it what it truly is: a Christian-only political sanctuary. Even within the North Central, Christians are not the majority. Only Benue and Plateau have overwhelming Christian populations. In Kogi, Niger, Kwara, and Nasarawa, Muslims form the majority—and each of those states is governed by Muslims.

So how does a minority hope to dominate the majority? How can the tail wag the dog?

This agenda is rooted in a deep-seated hostility toward Muslims, weaponised through disinformation, propaganda, and violence. And beyond the politics, the demands are not only unrealistic—they border on the absurd.

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The dream of a cross-regional Christian confederacy stretching across Nigeria would require forcefully merging Christian pockets in the North Central, North East, and North West—communities that share almost no borders—with one another. Over 90% of the Christian minority communities they list are not even geographically contiguous with Plateau or Benue. The only connected Christian-majority areas are Plateau, Benue, and parts of Southern Kaduna.

To create this so-called Bible Belt would require mass displacement of millions of indigenous Muslims living in these territories. It would produce a Bantu-like, Southern Sudan-type enclave in the heart of a predominantly Muslim region.

We know how South Sudan turned out. Years after global Christian activists—and even Hollywood celebrities like George Clooney—pushed the “Christian genocide” narrative to break it away from Sudan, the new country descended almost immediately into ethnic civil war among people who share the same faith. The activists have since moved on. The people remain with the suffering.

This is precisely the kind of tragedy Nigeria risks if it entertains such a divisive fantasy.

Creating a religious enclave in Northern Nigeria is possible only through civil war, mass ethnic cleansing, and forceful land seizure. No legislative process can achieve it; it would require bullets, not ballots.

Even more unrealistic is the attempt to annex Christian-minority areas of Southern Borno, Southern Yobe, Southern Gombe, Southern Adamawa, Southern Bauchi, and parts of Taraba into this imaginary Bible Belt. Except for Taraba, all these states are Muslim-majority and governed by Muslims.

The Bible Belt crusaders have even stretched their ambitions to the far North-West, claiming Christian communities like Zuru in Kebbi and Southern Kaduna, and naming random Christian minority pockets across Katsina, Zamfara, Jigawa, and Kano as part of their utopian region.

Let us be honest: how does this happen without displacing millions of Muslims?
How do you build a Christian-only belt across a region dominated by Muslims without violence?
How do you redraw boundaries across the North without war?

The truth is simple. This agenda mirrors the same formula used in the Middle East—forceful displacement, land acquisition, and demographic engineering. Nothing short of massive foreign-backed militarisation could make it remotely possible.

And even then, like South Sudan, such a creation would become a landlocked, unstable, ethnically fragmented territory—a permanent war zone.

Nigeria must never walk this path.

The so-called Middle Belt agitation is not about geography or justice. It is about identity politics and fear disguised as self-determination. It is a project built on emotion, not logic. On ethnic resentment, not fairness. On religious exceptionalism, not coexistence.

I welcome any factual challenge to the points made here. Let the arguments come—but let them be grounded in truth, not propaganda.

Aminu Ayama
@aaa

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Kano APC’s Crisis and Senator Barau’s Masterclass in Political Maturity

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Senator Barau

​By Ado Isa Jagaba

​The persistent turmoil within the Kano State Chapter of the All Progressives Congress (APC) has, once again, starkly exposed the deep-seated faultlines dividing the party. Yet, amidst this chaos, a quieter but far more instructive story is unfolding—the dignified restrain and profound political maturity demonstrated by the Deputy Senate President, Senator Barau I. Jibrin, CFR, in the face of sustained internal betrayal.

​In 2021, during the crucial APC State Congress, Senator Barau, then a serving Senator and Chairman of the powerful Senate Committee on Appropriations, was systematically denied any meaningful influence. He was refused even an ex-officio slot at the ward, local-government, and state levels. Furthermore, his known allies were barred from serving as supervisory councillors, political advisers, or special assistants, with any identified supporter being ruthlessly sidelined.

​However, instead of engaging in public retaliation or fueling the internal discord, he executed a masterclass in political focus. He kept his attention strictly on delivering concrete development projects, roads, boreholes, schools, and scholarships. Often extending these dividends of democracy far beyond his Kano North Senatorial constituency.

​A Strategy of Silent Service

​His silence in the face of humiliation was not weakness; it was a strategic choice. This political maturity allowed him to rise above the petty fray and continued his unwavering service to the people. When the same elements later attempted to block his Senatorial ticket, national party elders were compelled to intervene. Barau’s perseverance ultimately paid off. He not only overwhelmingly retained his Senate seat, but was subsequently elevated to the position of Deputy President of the Senate, the fifth highest political office in the country.

​Why Barau’s Conduct is the APC’s Current Lesson

​Barau’s political trajectory offers clear, actionable lessons for the crisis-ridden party.

​Service Over Spite

Despite being denied the gubernatorial ticket and facing attempts to sabotage his Senatorial nomination, the Senator put the party first. He extensively financed the Gawuna/Garo gubernatorial campaign in 2023, played a pivotal role in the APC sweeping five of the six House of Representatives seats in his zone, and generously funded crucial legal battles all the way to the Supreme Court.

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​Empowering the Grassroots

Barau has used his federal influence to empower party faithful, securing over 2,500 APC members position of Senior Legislative Aides, Special Adviser roles and influencing numerous federal appointments. This level of patronage and direct welfare for party members is widely regarded as unmatched in Kano’s recent political history. He has also donated hundreds of vehicles and motorcycles to party leadership at all levels.

​A Figure of Unification

The widespread grassroots call for Barau to run for Governor is not accidental. It is a direct recognition of his proven ability to bridge political divides, deliver tangible results, and provide the much-needed cohesion to a fractured party structure.

​The Desperation of the Cabal

​The same cabal that once exploited the gentlemanly nature of our former leader, Baba Ganduje, to humiliate Senator Barau now finds itself increasingly restless and confused. These elements, having benefited from the system, while neglecting the party’s welfare structure, constantly envy the goodwill and resources Senator Barau has directed towards the APC faithfuls.

​Today, they are desperately oiling fabricated and baseless publications aimed at tarnishing his image and sowing division, particularly by misrepresenting his independent political activities as a direct attack on Baba Ganduje’s personality. They are the same people who, having lost their source of leverage, now resort to hiding behind the former governor, seeking continuous protection to the detriment of the party’s survival as a viable opposition force in Kano.

​Unaware that the Senator is far ahead in strategy and political manoeuvring. Their paid “data boys” propagate falsehoods, trying to portray the powerful Senator as a battle-ready opponent of Ganduje’s political empire. However, their efforts fail daily. The resources they once enjoyed are no longer flowing. They cannot match the abundant political capital and widespread support at the disposal of the Deputy Senate President. A serious political Tsunami is being witnessed as many responsible and loyal party members desert their camp, which was built on a shaky foundation of self-interest rather than genuine party welfare.

​The Clear Lesson

​While critics may correctly argue that internal disagreements are inevitable and that the party should pursue reconciliation, others contend that Barau’s track record of quiet, effective service and broad support makes him the natural candidate to restore cohesion and secure future victories.
​Whatever the political outcome, the lesson for the Kano APC is clear: political maturity, as exemplified and typified by Senator, can transform humiliation into a platform for greater influence and power. The party must acknowledge that the same hands that built critical infrastructure and funded crucial legal battles are now being asked to lead the state.
​As many Kano APC stalwarts succinctly put it, “If you want a governor who can turn the tide of the state, look to the man who turned silence into service.”

Lajawa is a Political Analyst, from Warawa Local Government, Kano State
December 7, 2025
Email: adoisajagaban@gmail.com

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