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Northern Nigeria and the Inevitable Transition

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By Adamu Tilde

Time and tide are two phenomena that can neither be wished away nor dismissed with a wave of a hand. A tide would sweep you away while time won’t wait for you to be ready. It’s on these premises I will proceed to discuss the five phenomena that, for quite a while, I strongly believe, have been strangulating the economic development of the Nigeria’s Muslim North; invariably, until a deliberate, soul-searching, controlled and honest conversation on these phenomena is being organized and debated, the region will continue to lead in posting poor human development indices.

1. Population Explosion and Birth Control

Population, in itself, is not the problem. The problem is when you have an idle, unskilled population fiercely competing for scarce resources. For example, take a father with a monthly income of N100,000 having two children and a wife to cater for. That father, all things being equal, can afford a house rent of, say, N150,000 per annum, moderately feed his family, enroll his kids in a modest primary school, and most importantly, can afford to spare some time to attend to the social and psychological needs of his kids. Not that this is entirely okay, but certainly it’s far better than what is mostly obtained in the region.

Now, imagine another father with equal income but having two wives and ten children. There is no way he can provide for his family like the first father, no matter how much he tries because the resources are not enough, and they can never be. The result is that there is a greater likelihood of the children of the first father growing and becoming responsible adults, thus a high chance of making decent income and better life choices, given the strong correlation between acquiring quality education and economic success. In the case of the second father, the same cannot be optimistically inferred.

But a person can argue that it’s the responsibility of the government to provide free and quality education. Doubtless. However, the government’s irresponsibility isn’t a tenable excuse for one to be irresponsible. One will still have to carry one’s cross.

The truth of the matter is that Nigeria’s Muslim North must arrest its unbridled race of producing ‘needless’ number of children; this in addition to stepping up to the challenge of being responsible to the ones already around. Traditional, religious, and political stakeholders must brace up for the challenge of forcing the bitter pill of birth control down the throats of the population. No economic growth can be achieved with an uneducated, unskilled, and idle population.

2. Bank Interest and Economic Growth

Economic growth and development are tied to the acquisition of capital. There are basically two ways to acquire a capital: inheritance and bank loans. Very few members of the population have rich parents whom they can rely upon for seed capital, so that rules out the ‘inheritance factor’ for most of the population. The ready option is to access loans from banks. But banks charge interest, and interest on bank loan, according to the mainstream interpretation of the Muslim North, is haram (prohibited). This is the dilemma the Muslim North has found itself deep in for years, and has failed to provide a third option.

Bank interest is a reality we have to deal with. The consequence of not doing so may translate into a poverty-ravaged society which will, most certainly, birth all the imaginable societal dysfunctions: banditry, terrorism, violence, maternal mortality, child malnutrition, diseases, VVF, etc. Our best bet is to reinterpret the position of interest on bank loans. If no doctrinal reconciliation can be made, alternatively, the likes of Taj Bank and Jaiz Bank should engage in massive expansion and aggressive promotion. At the moment, they are doing very poorly.

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3. The Challenge of Socialist Orientation and Excessive Fatalism

The historical connection of the Muslim North to slavery had, subconsciously, produced a huge amount of population that believes free lunch is a birthright on one hand. On another hand, a skewed understanding of Islam produces a population with uncommon romance with excessive fatalism all in the name of belief in predestination (qadr). To be fair to the early Islamic scholars of the region, the fatalistic orientation was not entirely theirs; people have this tendency of always attributing their failures and carelessness to the softest and easiest doctrine they can relate to.

Notwithstanding, the triple effects of the remnants of slavery, socialist orientation, and influence of the [distorted] belief in predestination have, in no small measure, helped in creating people with a chronic sense of entitlement and fatalistic tendencies. A person would get his wife pregnant and be expecting his brother working in Abuja to foot the bills of the naming ceremony and whatnot. Nephews would be insulting and cursing uncles for their failures to give them (free) money. Younger and, sometimes, older siblings would be cursing and slandering a successful brother for not doing enough in giving them money to discharge their personal responsibilities. Students would not read very well or study courses that demand serious effort and longer duration, only to graduate with the wrong belief that “it isn’t about what you study, but it’s ‘albarkan karatu’ (‘the blessing in what you have studied’)”.

This cannot continue. Everyone must carry his own cross. People must learn to take personal responsibilities and appreciate the relationship between cause and effect, effort and reward. Prayer is not a substitute for hard work, and it never will be. [Caveat: this is not to discourage supporting those who genuinely deserve to be supported.]

4. Women Participation in the Economy

There is just no way Nigeria’s Muslim North can make meaningful strides in modernity, economic growth and development when half of its population is caged and denied reasonable participation in the region’s economic activities. The culture that sees women as mere appendages of men, whose raison d’être is to attend to the dictates of men is archaic, nihilistic and incompatible with reality. Not only that we must take the responsibility of educating our womenfolk very seriously, but we must also ensure that, after being educated, they also participate in the economic activities of their choices, and be adequately rewarded for their contributions. We cannot continue with the obsolete, retrogressive culture of locking our womenfolk at homes. One half of the population cannot salvage the whole alone, and that we know from firsthand and secondhand experiences. By the way, why should a woman’s success be a threat to a man?

5. Investment in Education

After all said and done, nothing — I repeat, nothing— can be achieved without a deliberate, massive, and continuous investment in education by individuals and governments. At the moment, we are doing very poorly in that regard. Modern economy is built on the tripod of good governance, quality education, and relevant skills. The last two can only be acquired through standard schooling on which, at the moment, we have very little to brandish. Northern Nigeria as a region of over 100 million people has only two business schools, ten medical schools (of which two were recently established), five veterinary schools, one agriculture-based university, three technology-based universities. This is not normal. No region can compete while recording this abysmal performance in knowledge production.

No doubt, the world is a spectrum for endless possibilities. But possibilities remain what they are: possibilities. Without the knowledge and skill sets to harness and maximize the opportunities that abound in the region and beyond, nothing would happen. That’s why the North, and by extension Nigeria, is littered with the presence of Indians, Chinese, Lebanese making a killing from the economy while native Nigerians are neck-deep in poverty, penury, and perpetual anger.

The five phenomena highlighted above are, by no means, exhaustive. The Muslim North of Nigeria has two fight-or-flight options from which cue can be taken. One, the North must begin to hold critical, soul-searching, and honest conversations on the inevitable transition to modernity so that the changes anticipated can be controlled and determined, where cultural peculiarities and religious sensibilities can be taken into account. Two, the transition and changes will inevitably and assuredly happen, but at a pace the region cannot control, and with consequences better imagined. The Muslim North must choose its battle. And to choose not is also a choice. At the end, the choice and the cross are North’s to make and carry respectively.

Opinion

When Power Meets Purpose: Why Abba Kabir Yusuf’s APC Move Is Kano’s Necessary Turn

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By Abdulkadir Ahmed Ibrahim (Kwakwatawa), FNGE.

In politics, moments arise when loyalty to a platform must give way to loyalty to the people. There are seasons when courage is not found in standing still, but in moving forward with clarity of purpose. Kano State stands at such a moment. The planned defection of Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf to the ruling All Progressives Congress is not an act of betrayal. It is a call to responsibility, a deliberate choice shaped by necessity, foresight, and the overriding interest of Kano and its people.

Perhaps power, when isolated, grows weak. Governance, when detached from the centre, struggles to deliver. Since the emergence of Abba Kabir Yusuf as governor, Kano has found itself standing alone in the national space. Federal presence is thin, strategic attention limited. The state that once sat confidently at the table of national influence now watches key decisions pass by without its voice fully heard. This isolation is not a reflection of the governor’s intent or capacity; it is the reality of operating outside the ruling structure in a political environment where access often determines outcomes.

It is common knowledge that governors do not govern in a vacuum. Roads, security, education, health, and economic revival depend on cooperation between state and federal authorities. When that bridge is weak, the people bear the cost. Kano today needs bridges, not walls. It needs inclusion, not distance. It needs a seat where decisions are shaped, not a gallery where outcomes are merely observed.

The internal tension surrounding the emirate question has further deepened uncertainty. While history and tradition demand respect, governance demands stability. Prolonged disputes distract leadership, unsettle investors, and weigh heavily on public confidence. At such a time, a governor requires strong institutional backing and political leverage to navigate sensitive reforms with balance and authority. Standing alone makes that task far more difficult than it ought to be.

More troubling is the visible absence of federal projects and partnerships. In a country where development is often driven by political proximity, Kano cannot afford to remain on the margins. A state of its stature, population, and historical relevance deserves more than sympathetic silence. It deserves action, presence, and partnership.

It is within this context that Abba Kabir Yusuf’s movement toward the APC must be understood. Not as personal ambition, but as strategic realism. Not as political convenience, but as a pathway to unlock opportunities long denied by distance from power.

By extension, Senator Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso stands at a defining crossroads. History has placed him in a rare position. He is respected across party lines, commands a loyal following, and remains one of the most influential political figures in Northern Nigeria. Above all, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu holds him in high regard. They share a common political generation, having both served as governors in 1999, shaped by the same democratic rebirth and seasoned by time and experience.

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In addition, one can recall that both Rabi’u Kwankwaso and Bola Tinubu were at the National Assembly under the platform of the now defunct Social Democratic Party, SDP, during the short-lived 3rd Republic. The former was the Deputy Speaker at the House of Representatives while the latter was a Senator together with Late Senator Engineer Magaji Abdullahi who was also elected under the same SDP ticket.

Late Engineer Magaji Abdullahi a former Deputy Governor of Kano State (2003 to 2007) and also a former Chief Executive of the State owned Water Resources and Engineering Construction Agency, WRECA, in the 1980s was a benefactor of Engineers Rabi’u Kwankwaso and Abba Kabir Yusuf were they first met as members of staff.

The late successful Kano technocrat, accomplished engineer, career civil servant charismatic and vibrant national politician was a close ally and associate of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu starting from the SDP days and the duo was some of the foundation members of the APC.

The President’s repeated extension of an olive branch to Kwankwaso is therefore not accidental. These gestures are acknowledgements of value, respect, and shared history. They signal recognition of Kwankwaso’s political weight and his capacity to contribute meaningfully at the national level. When such calls come consistently, wisdom suggests they should not be ignored. Kwankwaso should heed the call by moving along with the political direction of Kano State.

The truth is unavoidable. The political home Kwankwaso once built no longer offers the shelter it promised. The NNPP is enmeshed in internal crises that threaten its very identity. Court cases over party ownership and recognition pose serious risks. With the Independent National Electoral Commission recognising one faction amid raging disputes, the platform has become unstable ground for any serious electoral ambition. Under these circumstances, entering the 2027 race either with Abba Kabir Yusuf seeking re election on the NNPP platform or Kwankwaso pursuing a presidential ambition would amount to gambling against history and reason.

The alternatives are no better. The Peoples Democratic Party is fractured, weakened by internal contradictions and persistent leadership disputes. Its once formidable structure now struggles to inspire confidence. The African Democratic Congress, on the other hand, is ideologically and historically uncomfortable for Kwankwaso. Many of its leading figures were once his fiercest rivals. They resisted him in the PDP and are unlikely to allow him meaningful influence now. Political memory is long, and grudges rarely dissolve.

Beyond current realities lies a deeper lesson from history. Regional parties, no matter how passionate or popular within their strongholds, have rarely succeeded on the national stage. From the First Republic to the Fourth, the pattern remains consistent. Nigeria rewards broad coalitions, not narrow bases. Power flows where diversity converges.

The APC today represents that convergence. It is not perfect, but it is expansive. It is national in outlook, broad in structure, and firmly in control of the federal machinery. For Kano, aligning with the APC is not surrender. It is strategy. It is an investment in relevance, access, and development.

For Abba Kabir Yusuf, the move is about delivering tangible dividends of democracy. For Kwankwaso, it is about securing a future that reflects his stature and experience. Loyalty, in its truest sense, is not blind attachment to a platform. It is fidelity to the welfare of followers, to the aspirations of a people, and to the demands of the moment.

Politics is not static. It is a living conversation between ideals and realities. When realities change, wisdom adapts. Kano’s future demands bold choices, not sentimental delays. The music is louder now. The moment is clearer. The door is open.

History favours those who recognise when to move. For Abba Kabir Yusuf and Senator Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso, the path toward the APC is not a retreat from principle. It is a step toward purpose. They should go back to where they rightly belong. And for Kano, it may well be the bridge back to the centre, where its voice belongs and its destiny can be fully pursued.

Abdulkadir, a Fellow of Nigerian Guild of Editors, former National Vice President of the NUJ, Veteran Journalist, was the Press Secretary of the former Deputy Governor Late Engineer Magaji Abdullahi.

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Opinion

Legislative Brilliance : DSP Barau Lights Up Al-Hikmah University

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By Abba Anwar

The management of Al-Hikmah University, Ilorin, Kwara state, shopped for an individual politician, whose intervention cuts across all sections of the country, with vigor, informed scholarship, skilful understanding of democracy and a patriotic contributor for national development. In their search, they stop on the table of the Deputy Senate President, Distinguished Senator Barau I Jibrin, CFR, as they invited him to deliver the Convocation Lecture during the 15th Convocation Ceremony of the University, Wednesday.

Looking at the title of the lecture, “Managing Executive–Legislature Relations towards Democratic Consolidation in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic,” it is glaring that, only informed political leaders, with the needed exposure, could add value to the discussion. Not vague and fairy tales tellers.

Amidst scholars, democrats and activists, Senator Barau explores legislative expertise and scholarly advancement of discussion about genuine democracy around national development. A position that underscores the imperative of harmonious executive-legislative relations for Nigeria’s democratic consolidation.

While the lecture did not focus “… on the evolving relationship between the executive and legislative arms of government since Nigeria’s return to democratic rule in 1999,” only, the lecture positions the DSP as a scholarly voice of governance.

Being a member of the House of Representatives in 1999 and now a Senator, Deputy Senate President, to be precise, and looking beyond his state or any micro political entity, he believes, profoundly that, the executive and the legislature must work together to address the challenges plaguing the nation.

As he delved into figurative identification of the productive and close nexus relationship that exists between the National Assembly and the executive arm under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, GCFR, he enunciated that, only collaborative effort, amongst the two arms, could save the country. Hence, in his own terms, both executive and legislature are unarguably on the same page, of making Nigeria great again.

Apart from his scholarly discussion on the theme, his interventions in the education sector, back home in Kano and the nation in general, informed all decisions across the academic environment, there, and students’ bodies, to present to him Awards of Excellence. To officially recognize him as an icon for the development of the education sector in the land.

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They all appreciated his contributions to students through scholarships scheme, for studies in different fields of study. Both within and outside the country. As thousands get access to his scheme. He was identified as one of the leading national politicians whose contributions to education are immensely spotted and glaring. Some defined him as a National Messiah for Education.

Many Professors and academics, who attended the lecture, described him as a scholar in his own right. Whose arguments in the paper he presented, showcase how deeply rooted he is in the art of governance, legislation and engaging democratic activism.

The Deputy Senate President believes that, “A consolidated democracy is one in which political actors, institutions, and citizens internalise democratic norms, and where the probability of democratic breakdown becomes remote.”

He got standing ovation when he paraphrased, Diamond’s (1999) argument that, “In Nigeria’s Fourth Republic, democratic consolidation extends beyond the regular conduct of elections. It encompasses adherence to constitutionalism, respect for separation of powers, accountability, rule of law, and effective inter-institutional collaboration.

The Executive-Legislature relationship therefore constitutes a critical arena in which democratic values are either strengthened or undermined.”

DSP’s deeper knowledge of national democratic structure and his patriotic engagement for national cohesion and adherence to global experience, came on board when he posits that, “Early years of the Fourth Republic were marked by frequent conflicts over leadership of the National Assembly, budgetary processes, impeachment threats, and oversight functions which constitute impediments towards democratic consolidation after prolonged military rule.”

All the bottlenecks in his classical analysis stem from “Executive dominance inherited from prolonged military rule, weak institutional capacity within the Legislature, partisan competition overriding constitutional responsibility and
personalisation of power rather than institutional governance.”

Distinguished Senator Barau’s Al-Hikmah University’s presentation of Convocation Lecture, pushed many to accept the fact and the obvious that, he is indispensably a rare gem in legislative environment and a political stretcher in the national scheme of things. A national figure with global outreach. A gentleman with informed mind, capable hands and coordinated brain. Whose silence and humility are not defeatist, but calculative strategy.

One of the things that you cannot take away from him is, he is a political figure with thoughtful approach to politics.

In his elderly advice to the graduands he said, “As graduands of Al-Hikma University step into society, I urge you to uphold democratic values, demand accountable governance, and contribute intellectually and ethically to Nigeria’s democratic consolidation. Democracy is not sustained by institutions alone, but by enlightened citizens and principled leaders.”

The concluding part of his paper, speaks volume about his unwavering belief in democratic process, patriotic leadership style and informed understanding of national politics devoid of ethnic chauvinism. Hear the gentleman, ” Distinguished audience, Nigeria’s Fourth Republic has endured longer than any previous democratic experiment in our history.

This endurance, however, must be matched with qualitative democratic deepening. Managing Executive–Legislature relations with wisdom, restraint, and constitutional fidelity is central to this task.”

Anwar writes from Kano
Thursday, 8th January, 2026

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Opinion

Beyond the Godfather’s Shadow: Why Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf Chose Kano Over a Provincial Presidential Quest

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​By Kabiru Sani Dogo Maiwanki

​The recent pronouncements by Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso regarding Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf’s strategic political recalibration have finally stripped away the façade, exposing the profound ideological fissures within the NNPP hierarchy. In a caustic address delivered Saturday evening, the Senator characterized the Governor’s newfound autonomy as a “betrayal” of a far more egregious nature than that of his predecessor, Abdullahi Ganduje. However, in this vitriolic attempt to cast himself as the victim of political infidelity, Kwankwaso inadvertently betrayed a disconcerting truth: he viewed the incumbent administration not as a sovereign executive entity, but as a subordinate instrument of his personal political estate.

​Senator Kwankwaso remarked that, as a presidential hopeful, his fundamental expectation was that the administration he purportedly “installed” would function as a geopolitical centrifuge—a financial and logistical catalyst designed to project the Kwankwasiyya hegemony into neighboring Northwestern territories. He expressed profound chagrin that, over two years into this mandate, the machinery of the Kano State government has not been weaponized to “conquer” even Jigawa State for his political brand. This revelation is remarkably candid; it implies that the Senator’s patronage of the current administration was never rooted in the socio-economic advancement of the Kano populace, but was instead a cynical stratagem to treat the state’s commonwealth as a private war chest for a singular, ego-driven presidential odyssey.

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​By resisting this role, Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf has committed what Kwankwaso perceives as an unpardonable “sin,” but what objective observers must recognize as a courageous act of institutional integrity. The Governor’s refusal to allow the Kano State treasury to be cannibalized for regional political expansion is a resounding victory for fiscal prudence and administrative transparency. It represents a principled rejection of the archaic practice where public commonwealth is weaponized to bolster the narrow political interests of a singular godfather at the expense of the citizenry.

​The depth of the Senator’s desperation is now laid bare for all to see. In a striking reversal from his usual posture of absolute authority, Kwankwaso has been reduced to making public appeals for reconciliation. His recent plea—openly asking anyone with access to the Governor to “beg him to come back”—reveals a leader who has finally grasped the magnitude of his loss. It is the sound of a man who realizes that the “innocent aide” he once underrated has not only secured his independence but has taken the soul of the movement with him.

​It is therefore essential for Kwankwaso and other political leaders who pride themselves on their political stature to realize that there is a limit to how long they can continue to deceive and exploit their followers. Respect must be reciprocal; whether between a leader and the led, there is a definitive limit to the amount of insult, manipulation, and contempt any person can endure.

Whenever you push a supporter to the brink and their patience finally runs out, the consequences of their anger will certainly be unpleasant for those in power.
​For the well-meaning people of Kano, this is a moment to offer unalloyed commendation. Governor Abba deserves praise for his steadfastness in protecting the state’s allocations and for prioritizing the welfare of the masses over the expansionist agenda of a political empire. Abba Kabir Yusuf has chosen to be the custodian of the people’s trust rather than a puppet for personal ambition, and in doing so, he has redefined the essence of leadership in Kano.

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