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Nigeria’s Opposition Coalition: Navigating Leadership Tussles, Candidate Selection, and the Road to 2027

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By Yusuf Danjuma Yunusa

The Nigerian political landscape is currently simmering with uncertainty as the country’s embattled opposition coalition grapples with a series of interconnected dilemmas. From internal party squabbles to the high-stakes question of a presidential candidate capable of unseating incumbent Bola Ahmed Tinubu in 2027, the coalition’s path forward is anything but straightforward. This report provides a detailed examination of the key fault lines within the opposition, the strategic calculations underway, and the prospects for a unified challenge against the All Progressives Congress (APC).

The Party Allegiance Conundrum: Stay or Abandon the ADC?

At the heart of the opposition’s immediate crisis is the question of which political platform to adopt. The coalition had previously coalesced around the African Democratic Congress (ADC), but the party has since become deeply factionalised, raising doubts about its viability as a vehicle for a credible electoral challenge. Alternatives such as the New Democratic Congress (NDC) and the People’s Redemption Party (PRP) have been floated as potential replacements.

After intense internal deliberations, coalition leaders have resolved not to abandon the ADC at this critical juncture. Their reasoning rests on two pillars. First, they argue that considerable resources—financial, organisational, and political—have already been invested in building the ADC into a formidable opposition force ahead of the 2027 general election. Second, they contend that the ruling APC’s strategy of suppressing opposition platforms is not unique to the ADC. In their view, leaving the ADC for another party without first cleansing it of “bad eggs” would only export the same dysfunction to any new vehicle. Therefore, calls to exit solely because of the ongoing leadership tussle have been firmly rejected.

The Presidential Candidate Puzzle: Atiku, Obi, Kwankwaso, or Amaechi?

Beyond the party platform issue lies an even more contentious dilemma: who will fly the coalition’s flag as presidential candidate. The quartet of political heavyweights—former Vice President Atiku Abubakar (PDP), former Governor of Anambra Peter Obi (Labour Party/ADC), former Governor of Kano Rabiu Kwankwaso (NNPP), and former Minister of Transport Rotimi Amaechi (APC defector)—each command significant followings. Yet their rivalry threatens to fragment the coalition before it can even take shape.

The Atiku-Obi Ticket Proposition

Political pundits have suggested that the coalition’s strongest chance lies in reviving the 2019 formula: Atiku as presidential candidate and Peter Obi as his running mate. Proponents argue that this combination balances regional and ethnic considerations—Atiku drawing from the north-east and Obi from the south-east—while leveraging the name recognition of both figures. The ticket would also present a direct contrast to President Tinubu’s southern Muslim identity.

The Kwankwaso-Obi Counterproposal

Observers have countered that the electorate may be suffering from “Atiku fatigue,” noting that the former vice president has contested every election cycle since 2007 without success. These analysts argue that it is time for Atiku to step aside and allow a Kwankwaso-Obi pairing, with Kwankwaso at the top and Obi as his deputy. They believe that Kwankwaso’s northern grassroots appeal, combined with Obi’s youth and digital following, could replicate the “outsider” energy that propelled Obi to third place in 2023.

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The Obedient Movement’s Resistance and Obi’s Stated Position

The permutations become more fraught once the Obedient Movement—the sprawling, youth-led network that propelled Peter Obi to unexpected prominence in 2023—is factored in. The movement has been unequivocal: Peter Obi will not deputise for anyone. Its leaders view Obi not merely as a candidate but as the embodiment of a generational and governance reform movement. Any suggestion that he accept a vice-presidential slot is met with fierce resistance.

For his part, Peter Obi has repeatedly stated that he will be on the 2027 presidential ballot as a flag bearer of a party. Observers have interpreted this stance in two ways. Either he remains committed to his previous political platform—the Labour Party, which gave him the ticket in 2023—or he has prepared an alternative in the event that the coalition’s chosen vehicle (the ADC) becomes unworkable.

Speculation of an Obi Exit from ADC

With the ADC’s leadership crisis now fully manifest, social media and political circles are rife with speculation that Obi may soon abandon the ADC altogether. The most likely destination is a return to the Labour Party, where he still enjoys substantial institutional loyalty. However, other unnamed parties are also said to be under consideration. The coalition’s ability to hold together could hinge on whether Obi decides to remain within the fold or strike out on his own.

The Electability Question: Can Obi Defeat President Tinubu?

Beyond the internal machinations, analysts are divided on whether Peter Obi—even if he secures a presidential ticket—can actually defeat President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in 2027.

The Case for Obi’s Victory

Proponents of Obi’s electability point to the momentum he generated in 2023, when he captured over six million votes despite running on a relatively unknown party platform. They argue that if that momentum remains intact—and if he selects a northern Muslim as his running mate to balance the ticket—he could defeat Tinubu. The reasoning rests heavily on the north’s growing disillusionment with the president. Tinubu’s economic policies, including the removal of fuel subsidies and unification of exchange rates, have triggered steep inflation and a cost-of-living crisis. Furthermore, political observers note that Tinubu’s administration has engaged in what many northern elites perceive as the political persecution of prominent northern figures, allegedly to neutralise potential challengers from the region. This combination of economic pain and political marginalisation, they argue, could drive a decisive northern rejection of the incumbent.

The Counterargument: Obstacles to an Obi-Led Ticket

Opposing analysts offer a sobering rebuttal. They note that any ticket with Obi at the top would require a northern politician to accept the vice-presidential slot. But among the coalition’s leading lights—Atiku, Kwankwaso, and even Amaechi—none are likely to subordinate themselves to Obi. Atiku sees himself as the elder statesman and natural standard-bearer. Kwankwaso commands his own northern power base and has little interest in playing second fiddle. Consequently, the prediction that Obi could defeat Tinubu, while not impossible, rests on a political alignment that currently shows no signs of materialising. Without a willing and credible northern running mate, Obi’s chances remain speculative at best.

 

The Nigerian opposition coalition stands at a defining moment. It has chosen to stay and fight for control of the factionalised ADC, rejecting the easier path of switching to a new platform. Yet that decision may prove pyrrhic if the leadership tussle continues to drain energy and credibility. Simultaneously, the unresolved question of a presidential candidate threatens to fracture the alliance before it can present a united front. Peter Obi’s unwillingness to play a subordinate role, coupled with the Obedient Movement’s intransigence, creates a high-stakes bargaining environment. Meanwhile, the coalition’s ultimate viability depends on whether it can translate anti-Tinubu sentiment—particularly in the north—into a coherent electoral strategy.

As 2027 approaches, the opposition would do well to remember that Nigerians are watching not only for charisma but for competence, unity, and a credible plan to address the nation’s deepening economic and security challenges. The current web of dilemmas, if left unresolved, may hand President Tinubu a second term by default.

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Kenyan Presidential Aspirant Warns Dangote: ‘Don’t Rush Lamu Refinery, I’ll Send You Back to Nigeria’

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By Yusuf Danjuma Yunusa

A man identified in a viral video as Kenyan presidential aspirant Patrick Osoi has sparked a heated online debate after warning Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote not to rush into establishing an oil refinery in Lamu, saying he would send the businessman back to Nigeria if elected president.

In the clip, said to have been recorded at a Lions Movement event, Osoi says: “I want to tell Aliko Dangote, please don’t rush to start the refinery because, when I’m sworn in as President of Kenya next year, you will be heading back to Nigeria.”

The remarks appear to reference a proposed $16 billion refinery project in Lamu, a coastal county that Kenya has promoted as a future hub for oil and gas infrastructure. Osoi argued that Kenyan investors have the capacity to build and run such a facility without foreign ownership.

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“We don’t need to beg foreigners to develop our resources,” he said, according to a partial transcript of the video. “Kenyans can do it.”

The video has been shared widely on Facebook, X and WhatsApp, drawing mixed reactions. Supporters praised Osoi for what they called a bold defense of economic sovereignty. Critics warned that the comments could scare off foreign investors and strain Kenya’s diplomatic and trade ties with Nigeria.

Dangote, Africa’s richest man and chairman of Dangote Group, has not publicly responded to the clip. His conglomerate operates one of the world’s largest single-train refineries in Nigeria and has investments in cement, sugar, fertilizer and petroleum across Africa.

The Kenyan government has not commented on the video. It was not immediately clear whether the Lamu refinery project involving Dangote is still active or whether Osoi’s remarks reflect any official policy.

Political analysts say the controversy underscores growing public debate in Kenya over foreign investment, local content and control of natural resources ahead of the next general election, expected in 2027.

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NDC’s Kano Governorship Candidate Gwarzo Missing From INEC Final List

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By Yusuf Danjuma Yunusa

The National Democratic Congress (NDC) governorship candidate in Kano State, Aminu Abdussalam Gwarzo, is absent from the final list of governorship candidates released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

The three-page list, signed by INEC Secretary Rose Oriaran-Anthony, contains 17 governorship candidates and their running mates for the Kano election, but neither Gwarzo nor any other NDC candidate appears on it.

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Those listed include Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Abacha Muhammed Sani of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and candidates from the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Labour Party (LP), Social Democratic Party (SDP), Action Alliance (AA), African Action Congress (AAC), Action Democratic Party (ADP), All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), Allied Peoples Movement (APM), and New Democratic Party (NDP), among others.

The document provides the names, political parties, ages, genders, and educational qualifications of the candidates and their deputy governorship candidates.

INEC did not state why the NDC candidate was omitted, and the published list does not indicate whether the omission is connected to the party’s nomination process, documentation, or another issue.

The development raises questions about the NDC’s participation in the Kano governorship election, although the list alone does not establish the reason for Gwarzo’s absence.

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Dawakin Tofa Academic Forum Holds Maiden Heroes Day, Honours Former Kano Governor

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The Dawakin Tofa Academic Forum has held its maiden Heroes Day and awards ceremony, honouring 10 distinguished late indigenes of Dawakin Tofa Local Government Area of Kano State for their contributions to education, public service, politics, community development and other fields.

The event, organised by the Dawakin Tofa Academic Forum, brought together academics, community leaders, elders and other stakeholders to celebrate the legacies of prominent personalities who contributed to the development of Dawakin Tofa, Kano State and Nigeria.

Speaking at the ceremony, the chairman of the forum, Dr Junaidu Danladi, said the organisation was established in 2018 to bring together educated indigenes of Dawakin Tofa, including professors, associate professors and other professionals from tertiary institutions.

Danladi said the forum had grown significantly since its establishment, with more than 100 members committed to promoting educational development and recognising individuals whose contributions had positively shaped the community.

He said the maiden Heroes Day was organised to preserve the history of Dawakin Tofa and ensure that the achievements of its prominent sons were documented and remembered by present and future generations.

In his remarks, Surveyor Muhammad Nadu Yahaya, an elder and former commissioner for lands, budget and planning, described the initiative as a timely and commendable development, saying the recognition of distinguished personalities from Dawakin Tofa was long overdue.

Yahaya said the forum represented the intellectual elite of Dawakin Tofa, whose members had demonstrated a commitment to advancing the community through knowledge, innovation and public service.

He commended the organisers for introducing the Heroes Day initiative, describing the selected award recipients as eminent personalities whose influence extended beyond Dawakin Tofa to Kano State and Nigeria.

Yahaya also called on the people of Dawakin Tofa to make additional efforts to distinguish the local government through educational advancement, community development and other innovative initiatives.

He prayed for Allah’s blessings upon the award recipients and the organisers, urging the forum to sustain the programme as an annual event that would inspire younger generations.

Similarly, Madakin Kano, Yusuf Nabahani Cigari, commended the Dawakin Tofa Academic Forum for recognising the achievements of the community’s late prominent figures.

Cigari said Dawakin Tofa was blessed with accomplished individuals across politics, the economy and public service, adding that the local government had a rich history of producing personalities who contributed to the development of Kano State and the country.

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He urged the people of Dawakin Tofa to remain united and work collectively towards the progress of their community, stressing the importance of preserving its heritage and celebrating its achievements.

The former chairman of the Dawakin Tofa Academic Forum, Dr Ameer Abdul Aziz, presented the profiles and contributions of the personalities selected for the maiden edition of the Heroes Day.

Abdul Aziz explained that hundreds of deserving indigenes could be considered for recognition, but the forum selected 10 individuals for the inaugural edition, with the intention of honouring more distinguished personalities in subsequent editions.

Among those honoured was Bello Kano, also known as Madakin Kano, who was born in 1907 and died in 1987. Abdul Aziz said Bello Kano began his career in education as an assistant teacher before rising to become a headteacher at a middle school.

According to Abdul Aziz, Bello Kano also served in different administrative and legislative capacities and contributed to the establishment of primary and post-primary schools in Dawakin Tofa, helping to expand access to education in the area.

Another recipient was Alhaji Adamu Danguguwa, who lived from 1913 to 1988. Abdul Aziz said Danguguwa acquired Qur’anic education and later attended Samaru Agricultural School, where he received agricultural training.

The forum also recognised a former governor of Kano State, “Alhaji Abdu Dawakin Tofa,” born in 1932 and died in 2003, who studied at Kansas University in the United States and served as commissioner for agriculture, deputy governor and governor of Kano State from May to October 1983.

The late Imam of Dawakin Tofa, Mukhtar Iman, who lived from 1935 to 2008, was also honoured for his contributions to reconciliation and efforts to combat illiteracy, according to Abdul Aziz.

The forum recognised Ahmad Ismail Dungurawa, who lived from 1945 to 2008, for his role in struggles for justice and his efforts to promote the interests of ordinary people.

Another award recipient, Aminu Garba Yaro, was celebrated for his generosity and support for children, including assistance to young people seeking educational opportunities. Abdul Aziz said Yaro, who worked with United Bank for Africa, made contributions to the welfare and advancement of others.

The forum also honoured Engineer Magaji Abdullahi, a water engineer who lived from 1947 to 2016, for his contributions to Dawakin Tofa, Kano State and Nigeria. Abdul Aziz said Abdullahi’s professional work and services had made a lasting impact on the community ,a prominent politician and a former Deputy Governor of Kano state from 2003 to 2007.

Abdullahi Maikano Rabiu, who lived from 1949 to 2021, was recognised for his commitment to supporting students, including those he knew personally and others who approached him for assistance, according to Abdul Aziz.

Abdul Aziz described Rabiu as a compassionate individual and a man of wisdom whose generosity helped many people pursue their educational ambitions.

The forum also honoured Alasan Dawakin, who was born in 1946 and died in 2023, for dedicating about five decades of his life to teaching and learning, according to the former chairman.

Another honouree was Malam Abdullahi Maikano, who lived from 1942 to 2023, in recognition of his contributions to the community.

The organisers said the Heroes Day was designed not only to honour the achievements of the deceased personalities but also to encourage younger generations to emulate their commitment to education, service, integrity and community development.

The maiden edition marked an effort by the Dawakin Tofa Academic Forum to document the history of prominent indigenes and establish a platform for celebrating individuals whose contributions might otherwise be forgotten.

The forum is expected to use the initiative to strengthen community ties, promote educational values and encourage the emergence of future leaders committed to the development of Dawakin Tofa and Kano State.

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