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Nigeria’s Opposition Coalition: Navigating Leadership Tussles, Candidate Selection, and the Road to 2027

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By Yusuf Danjuma Yunusa

The Nigerian political landscape is currently simmering with uncertainty as the country’s embattled opposition coalition grapples with a series of interconnected dilemmas. From internal party squabbles to the high-stakes question of a presidential candidate capable of unseating incumbent Bola Ahmed Tinubu in 2027, the coalition’s path forward is anything but straightforward. This report provides a detailed examination of the key fault lines within the opposition, the strategic calculations underway, and the prospects for a unified challenge against the All Progressives Congress (APC).

The Party Allegiance Conundrum: Stay or Abandon the ADC?

At the heart of the opposition’s immediate crisis is the question of which political platform to adopt. The coalition had previously coalesced around the African Democratic Congress (ADC), but the party has since become deeply factionalised, raising doubts about its viability as a vehicle for a credible electoral challenge. Alternatives such as the New Democratic Congress (NDC) and the People’s Redemption Party (PRP) have been floated as potential replacements.

After intense internal deliberations, coalition leaders have resolved not to abandon the ADC at this critical juncture. Their reasoning rests on two pillars. First, they argue that considerable resources—financial, organisational, and political—have already been invested in building the ADC into a formidable opposition force ahead of the 2027 general election. Second, they contend that the ruling APC’s strategy of suppressing opposition platforms is not unique to the ADC. In their view, leaving the ADC for another party without first cleansing it of “bad eggs” would only export the same dysfunction to any new vehicle. Therefore, calls to exit solely because of the ongoing leadership tussle have been firmly rejected.

The Presidential Candidate Puzzle: Atiku, Obi, Kwankwaso, or Amaechi?

Beyond the party platform issue lies an even more contentious dilemma: who will fly the coalition’s flag as presidential candidate. The quartet of political heavyweights—former Vice President Atiku Abubakar (PDP), former Governor of Anambra Peter Obi (Labour Party/ADC), former Governor of Kano Rabiu Kwankwaso (NNPP), and former Minister of Transport Rotimi Amaechi (APC defector)—each command significant followings. Yet their rivalry threatens to fragment the coalition before it can even take shape.

The Atiku-Obi Ticket Proposition

Political pundits have suggested that the coalition’s strongest chance lies in reviving the 2019 formula: Atiku as presidential candidate and Peter Obi as his running mate. Proponents argue that this combination balances regional and ethnic considerations—Atiku drawing from the north-east and Obi from the south-east—while leveraging the name recognition of both figures. The ticket would also present a direct contrast to President Tinubu’s southern Muslim identity.

The Kwankwaso-Obi Counterproposal

Observers have countered that the electorate may be suffering from “Atiku fatigue,” noting that the former vice president has contested every election cycle since 2007 without success. These analysts argue that it is time for Atiku to step aside and allow a Kwankwaso-Obi pairing, with Kwankwaso at the top and Obi as his deputy. They believe that Kwankwaso’s northern grassroots appeal, combined with Obi’s youth and digital following, could replicate the “outsider” energy that propelled Obi to third place in 2023.

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The Obedient Movement’s Resistance and Obi’s Stated Position

The permutations become more fraught once the Obedient Movement—the sprawling, youth-led network that propelled Peter Obi to unexpected prominence in 2023—is factored in. The movement has been unequivocal: Peter Obi will not deputise for anyone. Its leaders view Obi not merely as a candidate but as the embodiment of a generational and governance reform movement. Any suggestion that he accept a vice-presidential slot is met with fierce resistance.

For his part, Peter Obi has repeatedly stated that he will be on the 2027 presidential ballot as a flag bearer of a party. Observers have interpreted this stance in two ways. Either he remains committed to his previous political platform—the Labour Party, which gave him the ticket in 2023—or he has prepared an alternative in the event that the coalition’s chosen vehicle (the ADC) becomes unworkable.

Speculation of an Obi Exit from ADC

With the ADC’s leadership crisis now fully manifest, social media and political circles are rife with speculation that Obi may soon abandon the ADC altogether. The most likely destination is a return to the Labour Party, where he still enjoys substantial institutional loyalty. However, other unnamed parties are also said to be under consideration. The coalition’s ability to hold together could hinge on whether Obi decides to remain within the fold or strike out on his own.

The Electability Question: Can Obi Defeat President Tinubu?

Beyond the internal machinations, analysts are divided on whether Peter Obi—even if he secures a presidential ticket—can actually defeat President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in 2027.

The Case for Obi’s Victory

Proponents of Obi’s electability point to the momentum he generated in 2023, when he captured over six million votes despite running on a relatively unknown party platform. They argue that if that momentum remains intact—and if he selects a northern Muslim as his running mate to balance the ticket—he could defeat Tinubu. The reasoning rests heavily on the north’s growing disillusionment with the president. Tinubu’s economic policies, including the removal of fuel subsidies and unification of exchange rates, have triggered steep inflation and a cost-of-living crisis. Furthermore, political observers note that Tinubu’s administration has engaged in what many northern elites perceive as the political persecution of prominent northern figures, allegedly to neutralise potential challengers from the region. This combination of economic pain and political marginalisation, they argue, could drive a decisive northern rejection of the incumbent.

The Counterargument: Obstacles to an Obi-Led Ticket

Opposing analysts offer a sobering rebuttal. They note that any ticket with Obi at the top would require a northern politician to accept the vice-presidential slot. But among the coalition’s leading lights—Atiku, Kwankwaso, and even Amaechi—none are likely to subordinate themselves to Obi. Atiku sees himself as the elder statesman and natural standard-bearer. Kwankwaso commands his own northern power base and has little interest in playing second fiddle. Consequently, the prediction that Obi could defeat Tinubu, while not impossible, rests on a political alignment that currently shows no signs of materialising. Without a willing and credible northern running mate, Obi’s chances remain speculative at best.

 

The Nigerian opposition coalition stands at a defining moment. It has chosen to stay and fight for control of the factionalised ADC, rejecting the easier path of switching to a new platform. Yet that decision may prove pyrrhic if the leadership tussle continues to drain energy and credibility. Simultaneously, the unresolved question of a presidential candidate threatens to fracture the alliance before it can present a united front. Peter Obi’s unwillingness to play a subordinate role, coupled with the Obedient Movement’s intransigence, creates a high-stakes bargaining environment. Meanwhile, the coalition’s ultimate viability depends on whether it can translate anti-Tinubu sentiment—particularly in the north—into a coherent electoral strategy.

As 2027 approaches, the opposition would do well to remember that Nigerians are watching not only for charisma but for competence, unity, and a credible plan to address the nation’s deepening economic and security challenges. The current web of dilemmas, if left unresolved, may hand President Tinubu a second term by default.

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No Pay, No Escape: Unpacking Shehu Sani’s Account of Abuja Hospital Lock-Ins

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By Yusuf Danjuma Yunusa

 

The escalating cost of healthcare in Nigeria has reached a critical inflection point, with private hospitals in the Federal Capital Territory now reportedly resorting to security protocols to prevent patients from absconding at night without settling their bills. This stark reality was brought to light on Thursday by former Kaduna Central Senator, Shehu Sani.

In a post on his Facebook page, Sani described witnessing the practice firsthand during a visit to a private clinic in Abuja.

“Some Abuja private hospitals have started taking security measures to ensure that patients don’t escape at night without completely settling their bills. That’s the case when I visited one of the private clinics today,” he wrote.

While he refrained from naming the facility or detailing the specific security steps, his observation underscores a deepening national crisis where medical care is rapidly becoming a luxury, trapping families between the desperation for treatment and the burden of debt.

This practice is merely the symptom of a systemic failure where the rising costs of drugs, diagnostic scans, surgery, and hospital admission fees are pushing citizens to the brink. For many, the choice is no longer between private and public care, but between treatment and survival.

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While patients suffer, health workers argue that hospitals are also struggling under the weight of economic headwinds. With inflation eroding the naira’s value, forex challenges limiting the import of medical supplies, and the removal of fuel subsidies impacting logistics and energy costs, the operational expenses for healthcare facilities have more than doubled in the last 18 months.

While on the other hand, a health practitioner, Ummee Manson, painted a stark picture of Nigeria’s healthcare burden, citing the ordeal of a fictional mother, Mama Chinedu, who had to sell her earrings and borrow money to raise ₦185,000 for her children’s malaria treatment—a bill that, despite saving the children, left the family skipping meals for weeks.

The practitioner noted that this experience mirrors the reality for millions, as it’s documented that in 2024, out‑of‑pocket spending still accounted for 58.3% of total health expenditure, meaning families directly bear the cost of drugs, tests, and hospital care.

The practitioner further warned that such high financial exposure pushes over one million Nigerians into poverty each year, since a single illness can deplete savings, create crushing debt, or force households to abandon care altogether, locking them in a relentless cycle of worsening health and economic distress.

The statistics paint a grim picture of a broken system. Recently released data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) indicates that out-of-pocket spending still accounts for over 70% of total health expenditure in Nigeria. With most families lacking any form of health insurance, they are left to pay directly for services, often depleting their life savings in the process.

In response, both the Nigerian Medical Association (NMA) and various patient advocacy groups are renewing their calls for urgent government intervention. They urge the Federal Government to aggressively expand the National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS) to cover a larger percentage of the population and to regulate the prices of essential medicines to curb exploitation.

For now, however, survival often depends on the kindness of strangers. Many Nigerians are forced to resort to crowdfunding, church donations, and social media appeals to raise funds for life-saving procedures—a precarious lifeline that is not available to everyone.

Health economists and medical professionals warn that without comprehensive reforms, the trend will only worsen, and until structural changes are made, the haunting reality remains: for millions of Nigerians, a hospital bed is a financial gamble, and the price of life is becoming too high to pay.

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Gov. Yusuf Increases Salaries of Two Varsities’ Academic and Non-Academic Staff

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Kano State Governor, Alhaji Abba Kabir Yusuf, has approved the implementation of a new salary review for Academic and Non-Academic Staff of Aliko Dangote University of Science and Technology, Wudil, and Northwest University, Kano.

The new increase in salary was adopted from the Federal Government’s new remuneration package implemented at the Federal Universities in Nigeria.

This was contained in a statement issued by the governor’s spokesman, Sunusi Bature Dawakin Tofa, on Monday.

The approval followed a report and recommendations of a committee constituted by the State Executive Council to examine and review requests by the two state-owned universities for the domestication of the new salary package.

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Under the approved arrangement, the new remuneration package will take effect from January 2026, while payment will commence in September 2026.

The salary review will have a total financial implication of ₦391,847,555.24 monthly, amounting to ₦4,702,170,662.88 annually for the two universities.

For Aliko Dangote University of Science and Technology, Wudil, the monthly financial implication is ₦228,195,210.83, comprising ₦141,082,223.37 for Academic Staff under the ASUU agreement and ₦87,112,987.46 for Non-Academic Staff under SSANU.

For Northwest University, Kano, the monthly implication is ₦163,652,344.41, comprising ₦112,238,985.30 for Academic Staff and ₦51,413,359.11 for Non-Academic Staff.

The government has approved the inclusion of ₦1,567,390,220.96 in the 2026 Supplementary Budget to cover payments from September to December 2026.

Similarly, arrears covering the period from January to August 2026, amounting to ₦3,134,780,441.92, will be provided for under the 2027 Budget.

The decision, according to the committee’s report, is aimed at ensuring industrial harmony and improving the welfare of staff of the two institutions, in line with the implementation of the new remuneration package in federal universities and other state-owned universities.

Governor Yusuf also approved the consideration of Visitation Panels for the two universities and other tertiary institutions in the state, as provided by relevant laws, to strengthen accountability, administration and effective management of the institutions.

The Governor reaffirmed his administration’s commitment to improving the welfare of workers and strengthening the quality of higher education as part of its broader investment in human capital development.

 

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NANS Proposes ₦200 Dues for NYSC Mobilisation

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By Yusuf Danjuma Yunusa

The National Association of Nigerian Students has hinted that payment of its proposed annual ₦200 dues may become a requirement for students seeking mobilisation for the National Youth Service Corps scheme.

The NANS National President, Akinteye Babatunde, disclosed this in a Facebook post on Sunday and Monday while discussing the organisation’s finances and plans to change how its dues are collected.

Babatunde had earlier said NANS would work with the NYSC, and that students might need proof of payment of the association’s dues to be mobilised for camp.

He wrote, “We will be working with NYSC and one of the criteria to be mobilised for camp is NANS dues receipt.”

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However, in a video posted on Monday, Babatunde explained that the association was considering a system that would allow it to collect its dues directly from students rather than relying on student union governments and institutional managements.

He said the annual dues were only ₦200 per student.

According to him, the proposed system was not intended to place an additional financial burden on students but to ensure that NANS had the resources needed to operate independently and represent students effectively.

He said, “This is not an avenue to stress the students further because the due is as low as 200 Naira per student in a year, 200 Naira one year per student.”

Babatunde said the dues were meant to be distributed among the various structures of NANS, including the zonal level, state structures and affiliated student bodies.

He explained that the organisation had struggled to receive its expected capitation from student union governments in recent years.

He said, “We are considering moving from getting the due to capitation to get it to have a platform where we can get it directly from students.”

The NANS president alleged that about 80 to 90 per cent of student union governments were no longer in control of their dues, claiming that some institutions released only a fraction of the money collected to their student unions.

He said this had weakened NANS financially and affected its ability to intervene in student-related issues.

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