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Cover Story – Changing the Game: Key Factors That Will Shape the 2027 Elections Differently from 2023

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Again, the permutations for the next presidential election, which will be held in 2027, have started. In a deliberate attempt to compare and analyze possible events of 2023 that may likely occur again in the forthcoming 2027 election,  Nigerian Tracker’s Yusuf Danjuma Yunusa, filed the story below:

The electioneering for the 2027 presidential election will, in the next six months, kick-start. The opposition is still scavenging for a potent platform to ride into the field with the ruling All Progressives Congress.

Will the platform be the Social Democratic Party (SDP), which El-Rufai, one of the founders of the ruling All Progressives Congress now belongs to, or the newly sought-after bride, the African Democratic Congress (ADC)?

Asking Dr. Kabir Sufi Sa’id a Public Affairs Analyst based in Abuja whether the political dynamics of the 2023 election will emerge again in the forthcoming 2027 election, he responded:

“There may be some similarities between the 2023 and 2027 contests, as well as some differences,” Dr. Kabir asserted. He noted that there are major changes in the affairs of each of the political parties that contested in the 2023 election.

“During the 2023 election, the case was an incumbent president trying all he could to support his party’s candidate. But that is not the case for the coming 2027 presidential election, as the incumbent president is the one contesting himself.”

“Also, with developments in the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), there are indications that Alhaji Atiku Abubakar will leave the party for another in order to contest for the office of the presidency,” he stressed further.

On that account, it’s safe to say that a faction of the party will definitely leave with Alhaji Atiku. This will undoubtedly bring about a change in the country’s politicking compared to that of 2023.

The political scientist and public affairs analyst further divulged that “with the intended coalition between the ADC and SDP, Nigerians should expect further alignments from some other bigwigs from the opposition parties, just as it was recorded when El-Rufai initially left APC for the SDP,” even as he pointed out that they have still not found common ground among themselves.

He also opined that the only similarity between the 2023 and 2027 elections that is in play at the moment is the fact that the APC, which was the ruling party then, is still the ruling party now. He stated that it may be a rosy journey for the party again into the villa, except if the citizens react to harsh economic policies by voting it out of power.

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Dr. Kabir was further asked if he reads meaning into the absence of former President Buhari and some of his loyalists at the National Summit held at the banquet hall by the ruling All Progressives Congress on the 23rd of May, 2025, where the 22 governors of the party, the leaders of the National Assembly, and its members passed a vote of confidence in President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for a second tenure in the presidency.

The analyst didn’t hesitate to mention that even the Katsina State Governor wasn’t in attendance at the summit. “The former President Buhari wasn’t the only person absent from the summit; his state governor, Dikko Radda was not in attendance either,” he pointed out.

“But the governor’s absenteeism was attributed to a state function, which was beforehand slated to hold on the same day that the APC announced its summit,” he added in the governor’s defense.

“As for the absenteeism of some of Buhari’s loyalists at the summit, it was clearly understood that the CPC faction of the APC, as led by Abubakar Malami, the former attorney general of the federation during Buhari’s administration was absent. However, the Al-Makura faction was in attendance.”

It could be deduced from Dr. Kabir’s revelation above that the APC family is also divided, as Malami’s faction is against the Tinubu administration, while the Al-Makura faction supports it.

Analysis from the last presidential election in all the geopolitical zones in the country shows that the ruling party garnered most of its votes from the North West, which comprises seven states, the K states, Zamfara, and Jigawa. It clinched a total of 2.6 million votes, with its closest rival the PDP, recording nearly the same figure at 2.3 million votes.

Furthermore, in the Northeastern part of the country, which includes Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Taraba, and Yobe states, the ruling party was defeated, with the opposition PDP coming first with 1.7 million votes while it secured 1.1 million votes.

For the two zones above, Peter Obi’s Labour Party managed to secure fourth and third places, respectively, overtaking Kwankwaso’s NNPP in the North East.

However, in what didn’t come as a shock, the Labour Party took the lead in the South-South, which comprises Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Edo, and Delta states. It recorded 1.2 million votes, with the ruling party and PDP coming second and third, respectively.

In the South-West, which is the stronghold of the ruling party’s candidate, the APC overwhelmed the opposition parties, with PDP being the closest, having recorded 941,941 votes, and LP recording 846,478.

The so-called “neutral ground” states also known as the North-Central, comprising six states (Kogi, Niger, Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa, Kwara) and the FCT gave the lead to the opposition PDP with a record of 5.2 million votes. The ruling party came second with 1.7 million votes, while LP came third with 1.4 million votes.

Convincingly and without surprise, LP, in a landslide victory, defeated the ruling party and the opposition PDP with a total of 1.9 million votes in the South-East region. Thus, it is now substantiated that each of the three leading candidates, Tinubu, Atiku, and Obi won their respective zones. It is evident that the battlegrounds for these candidates were the North-West, South-South, and North-Central.

The aforementioned was the political situation in the country as of 2023. There were fierce political permutations and strong political oppositions.

However, as we approach the 2027 presidential election, the story may likely change, considering the political atmosphere of the nation. Currently, there is no serious opposition.

So, the questions remain: What will be the fate of the opposition as the 2027 presidential election draws nearer?

With the division in the ruling All Progressives Congress, will it return its candidate, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to the presidency for a second term?

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JUST IN: El-rufai’s Family Issues 7-day Ultimatum for Defence Minister to Retract Comment on Violence

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By Yusuf Danjuma Yunusa

Former Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Mallam Nasir Ahmad El-Rufai, has issued a seven-day ultimatum to the Minister of Defence, General Christopher Musa (rtd.), to provide evidence backing an allegation that El-Rufai planned killings in Southern Kaduna or publicly retract the claim.

Musa had accused the former governor of taking actions that deepened divisions and contributed to insecurity in Kaduna State during his administration between 2015 and 2023.

The minister, on Channels TV’s Politics Today, described the situation in the state during El-Rufai’s tenure as “toxic”, arguing that residents of Southern Kaduna remained unhappy with the former governor over the killings recorded in the area during his administration.

“El-Rufai did a lot of terrible things in Kaduna State. He divided the state into two. In that, if you are from the south, you cannot go to the north to live,” Musa had said during the interview.

When Musa was asked whether the people of Southern Kaduna were still unhappy with the former governor, he said, “If there is anything worse than unhappy. We can never be happy with somebody who has deliberately planned for the killing of our people.”

He also accused El-Rufai of ordering the demolition of houses belonging to people with whom he had personal disagreements.

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But in a statement issued on his behalf by his family, the former governor denied the allegation and demanded retraction.

The statement signed by Hon. Mohammed Bello El-Rufai, eldest son of the former governor, said it was seriously concerned by comments made by the Defence Minister during a live edition of Politics Today on Channels Television on September 3.

The family described the allegation as grave and said it was made without the presentation of evidence to substantiate the claim.

“While General Musa (Rtd.) is entitled to hold and express his personal opinions, the El-Rufai family is equally entitled to demand that such serious allegations be substantiated with credible evidence,” the statement said.

The family therefore called on the Defence Minister to publicly retract the allegation through the same medium on which it was made.

“The family of Mallam Nasir Ahmad El-Rufai, the former Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), former Governor of Kaduna State and Opposition Leader of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), has noted with serious concern the allegations made by General Christopher Musa (Rtd.), Minister of Defence, on 3 September 2026 during a live television broadcast of Politics Today on Channels Television. During the programme, General Musa alleged that Mallam Nasir El-Rufai actively planned killings in Southern Kaduna while serving as Governor of Kaduna State.”

“This grave allegation was made without the presentation of any evidence in support of the claim. While General Musa (Rtd.) is entitled to hold and express his personal opinions, the El-Rufai family is equally entitled to demand that such serious allegations be substantiated with credible evidence.

“In the absence of such evidence, we call on him to publicly retract the allegation through the same medium on which it was made. Accordingly, General Musa (Rtd.) is hereby given seven (7) days from the date of this statement to either provide evidence in support of his allegation or issue a full public retraction and apology.

“Failure to do so will leave the family with no option but to pursue all appropriate legal remedies available under the law in response to these unsubstantiated allegations.”

El-Rufai, who previously served as FCT minister and Kaduna State governor, is currently an opposition leader of the African Democratic Congress (ADC).

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Kano Chemists Threaten Warning Strike Over Alleged PCN Pressure

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The Association of Patent and Proprietary Medicine Vendors (PPMVs) in Kano State has threatened to embark on a warning strike if the Pharmaceutical Council of Nigeria (PCN) does not stop what it described as persistent pressure on its members.

The chairman of the association in Kano State, Comrade Aminu Hikima, disclosed this in an interview with Dala FM Radio, where he expressed concern over what he described as increasing pressure being exerted on members of the association by the regulatory body.

According to Hikima, the association would be forced to take industrial action as a means of drawing attention to the concerns of its members if the situation is not addressed.

Hikima said the planned warning strike was not the association’s preferred option, stressing that its members would rather see the issues resolved through dialogue and intervention by the relevant authorities.

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The Kano State chairman appealed to the PCN to reconsider its approach and stop actions that the association believes are putting unnecessary pressure on chemists operating across the state.

He said members of the association were willing to cooperate with regulatory authorities and comply with lawful requirements, but urged the PCN to ensure that its activities did not unnecessarily disrupt the operations of legitimate medicine vendors.

Hikima also called on the Kano State Government to urgently intervene in the dispute between the association and the PCN in order to prevent the situation from escalating into a warning strike.

The association’s chairman said government intervention was necessary to bring the parties together, address the grievances raised by its members and find a lasting solution to the disagreement.

Hikima further urged the state government to treat the matter as a priority because any disruption in the activities of medicine vendors could have consequences for residents who depend on them for access to medicines and other pharmaceutical products.

He maintained that the association remained committed to working with the government and regulatory authorities to ensure that medicine-related businesses operate within the law while protecting the interests of its members.

The warning by the Kano chemists comes amid calls for greater engagement between medicine vendors and regulatory authorities to resolve disagreements through dialogue rather than industrial action.

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Why Pantami Should Not Be Trusted With The Governance Of Gombe

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Dr Isa Ali Pantami

 

An Excerpt From the Piece of Abu-Ubaida Ibrahim Kùnà: By Danjuma Kala Gombe.

Institutional Authority and Governance Standards

In the course of democratic governance, voters entrust their future to leaders whose credentials and character have been rigorously tested and validated. This responsibility becomes even more critical when candidates seek to lead states like Gombe, which faces complex developmental challenges requiring leaders of proven competence and unquestionable integrity. It is therefore imperative that the electorate scrutinize not merely the promises candidates make, but the foundation upon which those promises rest. When institutional examination reveals serious concerns about a candidate’s qualifications and professional standing, voters deserve to understand those concerns clearly and comprehensively. Such is the case with Prof. Isa Ali Pantami, whose bid for the gubernatorial seat in Gombe State must be evaluated against documented institutional concerns regarding his academic advancement and the procedural irregularities surrounding his appointment.

The question is not whether technical authority was exercised, but whether institutional processes were followed with appropriate rigor, transparency, and adherence to established standards. A leader who demonstrates willingness to advance through processes marked by serious procedural irregularities sends a clear message about how that leader would approach governance itself. Will such a leader respect established institutional standards? Will he ensure transparency in important decisions? Will he accept rigorous scrutiny of his actions? These are not abstract questions posed by academic purists, they are concrete governance concerns that directly affect how a state functions and the standards it represents.

Distinguishing Institutional Roles: ASUU’s Investigative Findings

It is important to clarify institutional roles and authorities in this matter. The Academic Staff Union of Universities, representing professors and scholars across Nigerian universities, does not appoint professors. That authority rests with individual university governing councils, which are the bodies with formal administrative power to make such appointments. The Federal University of Technology, Owerri’s Governing Council is the authority that appointed Pantami to the rank of professor, and as a formal administrative act, that appointment remains in effect because the Governing Council has not formally revoked it.

However, ASUU, as the most authoritative voice of Nigeria’s academic community, conducted a detailed investigative examination of Pantami’s appointment and documented serious concerns about the process and qualifications involved. In 2021, ASUU released findings that were unambiguous and consequential: the appointment process had violated established academic standards and procedures. While ASUU does not have formal authority to revoke the appointment, its investigative findings carry significant institutional weight. They represent the professional judgment of Nigeria’s premier academic body regarding whether established standards were observed. These findings matter not because ASUU appointed Pantami, but because they document whether the appointment process itself met the standards the academic community expects.

Procedural Concerns and Substantive Deficiencies

The substance of ASUU’s documented concerns was both detailed and serious. At the time of Pantami’s appointment to the rank of professor, he possessed only approximately one year of post-doctoral teaching experience. This is extraordinarily limited compared to the established standards within Nigerian universities, where professorial appointments typically require a minimum of several years of demonstrable teaching excellence, research productivity, and scholarly contribution. Traditional academic progression through Senior Lecturer and Reader ranks represents years of scholarly work, successful teaching, and administrative contribution. Pantami had not progressed through these established ranks, a deviation from standard academic practice that raises fundamental questions about whether established advancement criteria were applied.

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Beyond insufficient experience, the appointment process itself exhibited serious procedural irregularities. What constitutes normal academic practice in university systems worldwide is a rigorous, multi-staged evaluation process that typically extends over years, involving departmental assessment, external peer review by leading scholars, examination of publication records, plagiarism verification, and multiple institutional scrutiny layers. Pantami’s appointment process was reportedly concluded in approximately three months. This extraordinary compression raises questions about whether appropriate diligence was observed. Critical evaluation stages were reportedly bypassed or inadequately conducted. Departmental assessments appear not to have been thorough. External reviews do not appear to have been properly executed. Plagiarism checks were reportedly insufficient. Most troublingly, key documents including detailed assessors’ reports and comprehensive publication records were not made available for proper scrutiny. This lack of transparency raises serious questions about institutional process.

Standards, Character, and Governance Judgment

What makes the documented procedural concerns particularly relevant to governance is what they suggest about standards and judgment. Even if the Governing Council had full authority to appoint Pantami through any process it chose, the question for voters is whether the process that was followed reflects the standards Gombe State deserves in its leadership. Did the appointment follow established academic practice? Were decisions made transparently and with appropriate scrutiny? Were qualifications evaluated fairly against established criteria?

ASUU’s investigation documented that the answer to these questions is troubling. The appointment process deviated from established standards. Evaluation stages were bypassed. Transparency was absent. A serious academic body concluded that established procedures were not observed. This is not a matter of whether the Governing Council had the authority to make the appointment, it is a matter of whether the appointment was made through a process that reflects institutional integrity and adherence to established standards. For governance purposes, this distinction is critical. A leader who demonstrated willingness to advance through compromised procedures raises legitimate questions about whether that leader, when in executive position, would similarly circumvent established processes when convenient.

Institutional Standards and State Development

The broader implications for governance are substantial. A governor is not merely an executive responsible for implementing policies and managing resources. A governor is the symbolic and institutional head of state government, representing the values and standards the state expects from leadership. When that governor is someone who advanced through a process that serious academic institutions documented as deviating from established standards, and who continues to hold a rank that such institutions questioned, the message sent to state institutions is concerning.

Governance in Gombe State requires a leader committed to institutional integrity and established processes. The state faces serious developmental challenges in education, healthcare, infrastructure, and economic development. These challenges require leaders who work effectively within institutional frameworks, maintain transparency in decision-making, and earn trust through demonstrated commitment to proper process and institutional standards. A leader whose rise involved procedural irregularities documented by credible institutional authorities raises questions about whether that leader will similarly prioritize convenience over proper process when governing.

The Voter’s Consideration

For Gombe voters, the relevant question is not whether the Governing Council had authority to appoint Pantami. The question is whether the appointment was made through a process reflecting the institutional standards and transparency Gombe deserves. Documented evidence shows the appointment process deviated from established academic practice and involved serious procedural irregularities. This is not trivial. It reflects on institutional values and standards.

Gombe State requires leadership built on demonstrated respect for institutional processes, transparent decision-making, and adherence to established standards. A governor’s past behavior is the most reliable indicator of future conduct. A leader who advanced through a process marked by procedural irregularities, lack of transparency, and deviation from established standards raises legitimate concerns about how that leader would approach governance. Gombe voters deserve a governor whose advancement was achieved through legitimate institutional processes, whose qualifications were fairly evaluated against established criteria, and whose respect for institutional standards is unambiguous. The documented procedural concerns regarding Pantami’s appointment suggest these standards may not characterize his pattern.

Danjuma Kala,
Former Secretary General NUJ, Gombe State, Sept 5, 2026 Gombe State, Nigeria

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