Again, the permutations for the next presidential election, which will be held in 2027, have started. In a deliberate attempt to compare and analyze possible events of 2023 that may likely occur again in the forthcoming 2027 election,  Nigerian Tracker’s Yusuf Danjuma Yunusa, filed the story below:

The electioneering for the 2027 presidential election will, in the next six months, kick-start. The opposition is still scavenging for a potent platform to ride into the field with the ruling All Progressives Congress.

Will the platform be the Social Democratic Party (SDP), which El-Rufai, one of the founders of the ruling All Progressives Congress now belongs to, or the newly sought-after bride, the African Democratic Congress (ADC)?

Asking Dr. Kabir Sufi Sa’id a Public Affairs Analyst based in Abuja whether the political dynamics of the 2023 election will emerge again in the forthcoming 2027 election, he responded:

“There may be some similarities between the 2023 and 2027 contests, as well as some differences,” Dr. Kabir asserted. He noted that there are major changes in the affairs of each of the political parties that contested in the 2023 election.

“During the 2023 election, the case was an incumbent president trying all he could to support his party’s candidate. But that is not the case for the coming 2027 presidential election, as the incumbent president is the one contesting himself.”

“Also, with developments in the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), there are indications that Alhaji Atiku Abubakar will leave the party for another in order to contest for the office of the presidency,” he stressed further.

On that account, it’s safe to say that a faction of the party will definitely leave with Alhaji Atiku. This will undoubtedly bring about a change in the country’s politicking compared to that of 2023.

The political scientist and public affairs analyst further divulged that “with the intended coalition between the ADC and SDP, Nigerians should expect further alignments from some other bigwigs from the opposition parties, just as it was recorded when El-Rufai initially left APC for the SDP,” even as he pointed out that they have still not found common ground among themselves.

He also opined that the only similarity between the 2023 and 2027 elections that is in play at the moment is the fact that the APC, which was the ruling party then, is still the ruling party now. He stated that it may be a rosy journey for the party again into the villa, except if the citizens react to harsh economic policies by voting it out of power.

Dr. Kabir was further asked if he reads meaning into the absence of former President Buhari and some of his loyalists at the National Summit held at the banquet hall by the ruling All Progressives Congress on the 23rd of May, 2025, where the 22 governors of the party, the leaders of the National Assembly, and its members passed a vote of confidence in President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for a second tenure in the presidency.

The analyst didn’t hesitate to mention that even the Katsina State Governor wasn’t in attendance at the summit. “The former President Buhari wasn’t the only person absent from the summit; his state governor, Dikko Radda was not in attendance either,” he pointed out.

“But the governor’s absenteeism was attributed to a state function, which was beforehand slated to hold on the same day that the APC announced its summit,” he added in the governor’s defense.

“As for the absenteeism of some of Buhari’s loyalists at the summit, it was clearly understood that the CPC faction of the APC, as led by Abubakar Malami, the former attorney general of the federation during Buhari’s administration was absent. However, the Al-Makura faction was in attendance.”

It could be deduced from Dr. Kabir’s revelation above that the APC family is also divided, as Malami’s faction is against the Tinubu administration, while the Al-Makura faction supports it.

Analysis from the last presidential election in all the geopolitical zones in the country shows that the ruling party garnered most of its votes from the North West, which comprises seven states, the K states, Zamfara, and Jigawa. It clinched a total of 2.6 million votes, with its closest rival the PDP, recording nearly the same figure at 2.3 million votes.

Furthermore, in the Northeastern part of the country, which includes Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Taraba, and Yobe states, the ruling party was defeated, with the opposition PDP coming first with 1.7 million votes while it secured 1.1 million votes.

For the two zones above, Peter Obi’s Labour Party managed to secure fourth and third places, respectively, overtaking Kwankwaso’s NNPP in the North East.

However, in what didn’t come as a shock, the Labour Party took the lead in the South-South, which comprises Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Edo, and Delta states. It recorded 1.2 million votes, with the ruling party and PDP coming second and third, respectively.

In the South-West, which is the stronghold of the ruling party’s candidate, the APC overwhelmed the opposition parties, with PDP being the closest, having recorded 941,941 votes, and LP recording 846,478.

The so-called “neutral ground” states also known as the North-Central, comprising six states (Kogi, Niger, Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa, Kwara) and the FCT gave the lead to the opposition PDP with a record of 5.2 million votes. The ruling party came second with 1.7 million votes, while LP came third with 1.4 million votes.

Convincingly and without surprise, LP, in a landslide victory, defeated the ruling party and the opposition PDP with a total of 1.9 million votes in the South-East region. Thus, it is now substantiated that each of the three leading candidates, Tinubu, Atiku, and Obi won their respective zones. It is evident that the battlegrounds for these candidates were the North-West, South-South, and North-Central.

The aforementioned was the political situation in the country as of 2023. There were fierce political permutations and strong political oppositions.

However, as we approach the 2027 presidential election, the story may likely change, considering the political atmosphere of the nation. Currently, there is no serious opposition.

So, the questions remain: What will be the fate of the opposition as the 2027 presidential election draws nearer?

With the division in the ruling All Progressives Congress, will it return its candidate, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to the presidency for a second term?