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Cover Story – Changing the Game: Key Factors That Will Shape the 2027 Elections Differently from 2023

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Again, the permutations for the next presidential election, which will be held in 2027, have started. In a deliberate attempt to compare and analyze possible events of 2023 that may likely occur again in the forthcoming 2027 election,  Nigerian Tracker’s Yusuf Danjuma Yunusa, filed the story below:

The electioneering for the 2027 presidential election will, in the next six months, kick-start. The opposition is still scavenging for a potent platform to ride into the field with the ruling All Progressives Congress.

Will the platform be the Social Democratic Party (SDP), which El-Rufai, one of the founders of the ruling All Progressives Congress now belongs to, or the newly sought-after bride, the African Democratic Congress (ADC)?

Asking Dr. Kabir Sufi Sa’id a Public Affairs Analyst based in Abuja whether the political dynamics of the 2023 election will emerge again in the forthcoming 2027 election, he responded:

“There may be some similarities between the 2023 and 2027 contests, as well as some differences,” Dr. Kabir asserted. He noted that there are major changes in the affairs of each of the political parties that contested in the 2023 election.

“During the 2023 election, the case was an incumbent president trying all he could to support his party’s candidate. But that is not the case for the coming 2027 presidential election, as the incumbent president is the one contesting himself.”

“Also, with developments in the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), there are indications that Alhaji Atiku Abubakar will leave the party for another in order to contest for the office of the presidency,” he stressed further.

On that account, it’s safe to say that a faction of the party will definitely leave with Alhaji Atiku. This will undoubtedly bring about a change in the country’s politicking compared to that of 2023.

The political scientist and public affairs analyst further divulged that “with the intended coalition between the ADC and SDP, Nigerians should expect further alignments from some other bigwigs from the opposition parties, just as it was recorded when El-Rufai initially left APC for the SDP,” even as he pointed out that they have still not found common ground among themselves.

He also opined that the only similarity between the 2023 and 2027 elections that is in play at the moment is the fact that the APC, which was the ruling party then, is still the ruling party now. He stated that it may be a rosy journey for the party again into the villa, except if the citizens react to harsh economic policies by voting it out of power.

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Dr. Kabir was further asked if he reads meaning into the absence of former President Buhari and some of his loyalists at the National Summit held at the banquet hall by the ruling All Progressives Congress on the 23rd of May, 2025, where the 22 governors of the party, the leaders of the National Assembly, and its members passed a vote of confidence in President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for a second tenure in the presidency.

The analyst didn’t hesitate to mention that even the Katsina State Governor wasn’t in attendance at the summit. “The former President Buhari wasn’t the only person absent from the summit; his state governor, Dikko Radda was not in attendance either,” he pointed out.

“But the governor’s absenteeism was attributed to a state function, which was beforehand slated to hold on the same day that the APC announced its summit,” he added in the governor’s defense.

“As for the absenteeism of some of Buhari’s loyalists at the summit, it was clearly understood that the CPC faction of the APC, as led by Abubakar Malami, the former attorney general of the federation during Buhari’s administration was absent. However, the Al-Makura faction was in attendance.”

It could be deduced from Dr. Kabir’s revelation above that the APC family is also divided, as Malami’s faction is against the Tinubu administration, while the Al-Makura faction supports it.

Analysis from the last presidential election in all the geopolitical zones in the country shows that the ruling party garnered most of its votes from the North West, which comprises seven states, the K states, Zamfara, and Jigawa. It clinched a total of 2.6 million votes, with its closest rival the PDP, recording nearly the same figure at 2.3 million votes.

Furthermore, in the Northeastern part of the country, which includes Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Taraba, and Yobe states, the ruling party was defeated, with the opposition PDP coming first with 1.7 million votes while it secured 1.1 million votes.

For the two zones above, Peter Obi’s Labour Party managed to secure fourth and third places, respectively, overtaking Kwankwaso’s NNPP in the North East.

However, in what didn’t come as a shock, the Labour Party took the lead in the South-South, which comprises Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Edo, and Delta states. It recorded 1.2 million votes, with the ruling party and PDP coming second and third, respectively.

In the South-West, which is the stronghold of the ruling party’s candidate, the APC overwhelmed the opposition parties, with PDP being the closest, having recorded 941,941 votes, and LP recording 846,478.

The so-called “neutral ground” states also known as the North-Central, comprising six states (Kogi, Niger, Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa, Kwara) and the FCT gave the lead to the opposition PDP with a record of 5.2 million votes. The ruling party came second with 1.7 million votes, while LP came third with 1.4 million votes.

Convincingly and without surprise, LP, in a landslide victory, defeated the ruling party and the opposition PDP with a total of 1.9 million votes in the South-East region. Thus, it is now substantiated that each of the three leading candidates, Tinubu, Atiku, and Obi won their respective zones. It is evident that the battlegrounds for these candidates were the North-West, South-South, and North-Central.

The aforementioned was the political situation in the country as of 2023. There were fierce political permutations and strong political oppositions.

However, as we approach the 2027 presidential election, the story may likely change, considering the political atmosphere of the nation. Currently, there is no serious opposition.

So, the questions remain: What will be the fate of the opposition as the 2027 presidential election draws nearer?

With the division in the ruling All Progressives Congress, will it return its candidate, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to the presidency for a second term?

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2027: Former 44 Local Government Speakers During Ganduje’s Tenure, Malam Takai Endorse Senator Barau as Kano APC Gubernatorial Candidate

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The Deputy Senate President, Senator Barau I. Jibrin, has confirmed that a forum of former local government speakers in Kano State, who served during the tenure of former Governor Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, have formally endorsed him as the gubernatorial candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) for the 2027 elections.

Senator Barau disclosed this while receiving the delegation, led by Hon. Shuaibu Haruna Gamarya, Chairman of the forum, at his office in the National Assembly, Abuja. He described their visit as a demonstration of unity and commitment to the progress of Kano State.

According to Senator Barau, the delegation, comprising 32 former House Leaders, came with a clear and united message of support. He explained that the group not only declared total backing for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s second-term bid but also adopted him as the APC gubernatorial candidate for Kano in 2027.

Speaking on behalf of the group, Hon. Shuaibu Haruna Gamarya said the forum had overwhelming confidence in Senator Barau’s leadership. He described him as “a senator for all, who, irrespective of constituency, offers support for the well-being and development of Kano State and its people.” Gamarya added: “You are our gubernatorial candidate and governor come May 29, 2027, Insha Allah.”

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The forum’s Secretary, Hon. Usman Muazu Garin Malam, reaffirmed their grassroots commitment, stating: “We, the house leaders, hereby support President Tinubu’s second-term bid and endorse you as the sole APC gubernatorial candidate. All we need is your support, and we will mobilise the grassroots for you.”

Former Speaker of Tofa LGA, Hon. Shehu Halilu, highlighted Senator Barau’s developmental projects across communities. He said: “The bridge you built in our village is saving lives. Your interventions touch women, men, children, farmers, and teachers everywhere. This is why we want you as the next governor of Kano.”

Halilu subsequently moved a motion for the formal adoption of Senator Barau’s candidature for 2027. The motion was seconded by Hon. Sunusi Abdu, former leader of Garko LGA, who declared: “Anybody that is against you is an enemy of Kano and an enemy of APC. That person is also against President Tinubu.”

Alhaji Salihu Sagir Takai, coordinator of the Renewed Hope Initiative in Kano, also lent his voice to the endorsement. He urged party members and stakeholders to work together for APC’s victory in the state, saying: “Choosing Senator Barau as Governor is the best decision for Kano, and promoting his candidature is a duty for all lovers of our state.”

In his remarks, Senator Barau expressed gratitude to Almighty Allah and thanked the forum for their courage, unity, and unwavering belief in Kano’s future. He reminded them of the shared responsibility to restore Kano to its rightful place as a centre of commerce, education, industry, good governance, and social progress.

“With dedication, sincerity, and unity of purpose, we will build a stronger, safer, and more prosperous Kano,” Senator Barau said, praying for Allah’s guidance and success in the journey ahead.

 

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Kano Bans Unauthorized Hisbah Groups, Outlaws ‘Independent Hisbah Fisabilillahi’

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The Kano State Government has issued a sweeping executive order banning the formation and operation of any unauthorized Hisbah-like groups, particularly targeting a self-styled body known as the “Independent Hisbah Fisabilillahi.

 

The order, titled “Kano State Government (Prohibition of the Independent Hisbah Fisabilillahi) Order 2025,” was signed by Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf and publicly read by the Commissioner for Information and Internal Affairs, Comrade Ibrahim Abdullahi Waiya, during a press briefing

 

 

He said the executive order draws its authority from Section 5(2) of the 1999 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (as amended), which vests executive powers in the state governor, including the responsibility to maintain public order and enforce state laws.

 

The Commissioner said government expressed deep concern over the emergence of individuals and groups who have been “undertaking recruitment, mobilization and organisation of persons into a body described as ‘Independent Hisbah Fisabilillahi’, without lawful authority and in contravention of the Laws of Kano State.”

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According to the order, Waiya added, such activities amount to the creation of “parallel, unauthorised enforcement structures within the State,” which the government deems “an unlawful act capable of disturbing the peace” and undermining the statutory functions of the Kano State Hisbah Board.

 

He maintained that the order unequivocally declares that “the formation of Independent Hisbah Fisabilillahi is unlawful and it is prohibited from operating or carrying out any activity in the state.”

Reinforcing the exclusive mandate of the Kano State Hisbah Board, the government emphasized that it “shall remain the sole legally recognized institution in the State” for coordinating Hisbah-related functions. Any impersonation of the Board’s authority, uniforms, symbols, or activities is now officially prohibited.

 

He pointed out that the order further directs all relevant security agencies including the Nigeria Police Force, Department of State Services, and Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps to investigate the organisers and sponsors of the outlawed group, halt all related activities, and take lawful measures to prevent any breach of peace.

 

In a stern warning to the public, Commissioner Waiya explained that “participation in, support for, or affiliation with the Independent Hisbah Fisabilillahi constitutes violation of the laws of Kano State.” Individuals who have already been recruited or approached for recruitment are urged to “disengage immediately and report to the nearest Security Agencies Division, Hisbah Office or Local Government Authority.”

 

According to him also, violators of the order face prosecution under applicable laws for offences including unlawful assembly, impersonation of lawful authorities, and the establishment of unauthorized enforcement groups. The term “Independent Hisbah Fisabilillahi” is broadly defined to include “any group, unit, committee, movement or body organised for the purpose of performing Hisbah-like enforcement functions outside the statutory Hisbah Board.”

 

“The executive order takes immediate effect and is to be gazetted by the Kano State Government Printer. Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf signed the order on December 8, 2025, marking a significant step in the state’s efforts to centralize religious enforcement under lawful authority and prevent the rise of parallel vigilante structures

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Supreme Court Nullifies Tinubu’s Pardon, Restores Maryam Sanda’s Death Sentence

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By Yusuf Danjuma Yunusa

 

Nigeria’s Supreme Court has set aside the presidential pardon granted by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to Maryam Sanda, the Abuja woman convicted of killing her husband, Bilyaminu Bello, during a domestic dispute.

In 2020, the Federal Capital Territory High Court sentenced Sanda to death by hanging, a verdict later upheld by the Court of Appeal in Abuja.

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In contrast, President Tinubu had subsequently commuted the sentence to 12 years’ imprisonment on compassionate grounds.

However, in a narrow 4–1 judgment delivered on December 12, 2025, the Supreme Court restored the initial death sentence. The apex court dismissed Sanda’s final appeal, ruling that it lacked merit and failed to undermine the findings of the lower courts.

Reading the lead judgment, Justice Moore Adumein held that the prosecution had proved its case beyond reasonable doubt, establishing that Sanda unlawfully caused the death of her husband.

He described the presidential pardon as an inappropriate exercise of executive power, particularly because the clemency was issued while the appeal process in a homicide case was still ongoing.

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