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Cover Story – Changing the Game: Key Factors That Will Shape the 2027 Elections Differently from 2023

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Again, the permutations for the next presidential election, which will be held in 2027, have started. In a deliberate attempt to compare and analyze possible events of 2023 that may likely occur again in the forthcoming 2027 election,  Nigerian Tracker’s Yusuf Danjuma Yunusa, filed the story below:

The electioneering for the 2027 presidential election will, in the next six months, kick-start. The opposition is still scavenging for a potent platform to ride into the field with the ruling All Progressives Congress.

Will the platform be the Social Democratic Party (SDP), which El-Rufai, one of the founders of the ruling All Progressives Congress now belongs to, or the newly sought-after bride, the African Democratic Congress (ADC)?

Asking Dr. Kabir Sufi Sa’id a Public Affairs Analyst based in Abuja whether the political dynamics of the 2023 election will emerge again in the forthcoming 2027 election, he responded:

“There may be some similarities between the 2023 and 2027 contests, as well as some differences,” Dr. Kabir asserted. He noted that there are major changes in the affairs of each of the political parties that contested in the 2023 election.

“During the 2023 election, the case was an incumbent president trying all he could to support his party’s candidate. But that is not the case for the coming 2027 presidential election, as the incumbent president is the one contesting himself.”

“Also, with developments in the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), there are indications that Alhaji Atiku Abubakar will leave the party for another in order to contest for the office of the presidency,” he stressed further.

On that account, it’s safe to say that a faction of the party will definitely leave with Alhaji Atiku. This will undoubtedly bring about a change in the country’s politicking compared to that of 2023.

The political scientist and public affairs analyst further divulged that “with the intended coalition between the ADC and SDP, Nigerians should expect further alignments from some other bigwigs from the opposition parties, just as it was recorded when El-Rufai initially left APC for the SDP,” even as he pointed out that they have still not found common ground among themselves.

He also opined that the only similarity between the 2023 and 2027 elections that is in play at the moment is the fact that the APC, which was the ruling party then, is still the ruling party now. He stated that it may be a rosy journey for the party again into the villa, except if the citizens react to harsh economic policies by voting it out of power.

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Dr. Kabir was further asked if he reads meaning into the absence of former President Buhari and some of his loyalists at the National Summit held at the banquet hall by the ruling All Progressives Congress on the 23rd of May, 2025, where the 22 governors of the party, the leaders of the National Assembly, and its members passed a vote of confidence in President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for a second tenure in the presidency.

The analyst didn’t hesitate to mention that even the Katsina State Governor wasn’t in attendance at the summit. “The former President Buhari wasn’t the only person absent from the summit; his state governor, Dikko Radda was not in attendance either,” he pointed out.

“But the governor’s absenteeism was attributed to a state function, which was beforehand slated to hold on the same day that the APC announced its summit,” he added in the governor’s defense.

“As for the absenteeism of some of Buhari’s loyalists at the summit, it was clearly understood that the CPC faction of the APC, as led by Abubakar Malami, the former attorney general of the federation during Buhari’s administration was absent. However, the Al-Makura faction was in attendance.”

It could be deduced from Dr. Kabir’s revelation above that the APC family is also divided, as Malami’s faction is against the Tinubu administration, while the Al-Makura faction supports it.

Analysis from the last presidential election in all the geopolitical zones in the country shows that the ruling party garnered most of its votes from the North West, which comprises seven states, the K states, Zamfara, and Jigawa. It clinched a total of 2.6 million votes, with its closest rival the PDP, recording nearly the same figure at 2.3 million votes.

Furthermore, in the Northeastern part of the country, which includes Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Taraba, and Yobe states, the ruling party was defeated, with the opposition PDP coming first with 1.7 million votes while it secured 1.1 million votes.

For the two zones above, Peter Obi’s Labour Party managed to secure fourth and third places, respectively, overtaking Kwankwaso’s NNPP in the North East.

However, in what didn’t come as a shock, the Labour Party took the lead in the South-South, which comprises Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Edo, and Delta states. It recorded 1.2 million votes, with the ruling party and PDP coming second and third, respectively.

In the South-West, which is the stronghold of the ruling party’s candidate, the APC overwhelmed the opposition parties, with PDP being the closest, having recorded 941,941 votes, and LP recording 846,478.

The so-called “neutral ground” states also known as the North-Central, comprising six states (Kogi, Niger, Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa, Kwara) and the FCT gave the lead to the opposition PDP with a record of 5.2 million votes. The ruling party came second with 1.7 million votes, while LP came third with 1.4 million votes.

Convincingly and without surprise, LP, in a landslide victory, defeated the ruling party and the opposition PDP with a total of 1.9 million votes in the South-East region. Thus, it is now substantiated that each of the three leading candidates, Tinubu, Atiku, and Obi won their respective zones. It is evident that the battlegrounds for these candidates were the North-West, South-South, and North-Central.

The aforementioned was the political situation in the country as of 2023. There were fierce political permutations and strong political oppositions.

However, as we approach the 2027 presidential election, the story may likely change, considering the political atmosphere of the nation. Currently, there is no serious opposition.

So, the questions remain: What will be the fate of the opposition as the 2027 presidential election draws nearer?

With the division in the ruling All Progressives Congress, will it return its candidate, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to the presidency for a second term?

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Xenophobia: FG Hints at Economic Crackdown on South African Giants MTN, DStv

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By Yusuf Danjuma Yunusa

The Federal Government has hinted at possible measures against South African companies operating in Nigeria, including telecommunications giant MTN, as outrage grows over the continued harassment and attacks on Nigerians living in South Africa.

Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ambassador Bianca Odumegwu-Ojukwu, disclosed this on Thursday, while addressing concerns over the worsening anti-migrant attacks in South Africa and the evacuation of Nigerians from the country.

The minister said Nigeria had exercised restraint and continued to pursue diplomatic engagements but warned that the government might be compelled to explore other options if the attacks persist.

“As I indicated before, there are these huge conglomerates. By the way, there are over 120 South African companies operating in Nigeria.

“Nobody is asking them to provide proof of identity. Nobody is asking South African staff working there whether they are South Africans or Nigerians, and nobody is taking over their shops or businesses.

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“But this is happening to Nigerians in South Africa. So, I think that at some point, we really have to review the options available to us.

“We have MTN, MultiChoice, Stanbic, Protea and many other South African brands spanning multiple sectors,” Odumegwu-Ojukwu said.

The minister, however, stressed that any retaliatory measures would have to follow constitutional provisions and due legislative process.

She explained that the Federal Government was currently engaging South African authorities through diplomatic channels, while the National Assembly would play a constitutional role in determining Nigeria’s response should those efforts fail.

The minister also disclosed that the South African authorities discarded their memorandum of understanding with Nigeria on early warning mechanism which they had signed in October 2025.

She added that the pact was essentially to protect the lives and property of both Nigerians and South Africans in times of conflict like this.

“When it comes to situations like this, of course, it is necessary to be temperate and exercise caution. But when your citizens are being harassed, when your citizens are people who have spent years there, and mind you, some of them are married to South Africans and have children who have known no other home but South Africa, then it becomes a serious concern.

“Now, under these circumstances, they are asking not just Nigerians, but also their South African spouses and their children, to leave South Africa,” the minister said.

Recall that in May, th esenator representing Edo North, Adams Oshiomhole, called for the revocation of licences of South African companies operating in Nigeria, including MTN and MultiChoice, owners of DSTV, following renewed xenophobic attacks against Nigerians in South Africa.

The National Assembly also condemned the attacks, urging the federal government to take immediate diplomatic and protective measures to safeguard Nigerian citizens abroad.

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Accord Party Members in Kano Back Court Ruling, Reaffirm Support for Olawepo-Hashim

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Members, stakeholders and supporters of the Accord Party in Kano State have welcomed the recent intervention of the Court of Appeal in Abuja over the attempted deregistration of political parties by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), describing the decision as a victory for democracy and the rule of law.

The position was contained in a communiqué issued at the end of an emergency meeting of Accord Party members and supporters of Dr. Gbenga Olawepo-Hashim held on Saturday at the Nigeria Union of Journalists (NUJ) Secretariat Conference Hall in Kano, according to the statement signed by the party’s Women Leader, Ambassador Aisha Ibrahim Ya’u, and North West Coordinator, Bashir Muhammad Goje Alade.

According to the communiqué, representatives from all 44 local government areas of Kano State attended the meeting to deliberate on recent judicial developments surrounding the Federal High Court judgment that ordered the deregistration of five political parties, including the Accord Party.

The gathering commended the Court of Appeal sitting in Abuja for granting a stay of execution of the Federal High Court judgment, stating that the appellate court’s action demonstrated a commitment to justice, due process and constitutional governance, according to the communiqué.

The party members expressed confidence in the Nigerian judiciary, describing it as a critical institution for safeguarding democracy and protecting citizens’ rights, the statement said. They noted that the Court of Appeal’s intervention had strengthened public trust in the judicial process and reaffirmed the importance of respecting established legal procedures.

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The meeting also reassured party members and supporters that the Accord Party remains a legally recognised political party pending the final determination of the matter before the courts, according to the communiqué. Participants stressed that all structures, organs and activities of the party remain valid and operational across the country.

In addition, attendees emphasised the importance of political pluralism in sustaining democratic governance, arguing that citizens should continue to enjoy a wide range of political choices, the statement noted. The meeting pledged support for all lawful efforts aimed at preserving multiparty democracy and promoting inclusive political participation.

The stakeholders commended Accord Party members across Kano State and other parts of the country for remaining calm and committed despite the uncertainty generated by the legal dispute, according to the communiqué. They praised supporters for demonstrating maturity and dedication to democratic ideals during the period.

The meeting further reaffirmed its support for Dr. Gbenga Olawepo-Hashim, describing him as a leader committed to national unity, prosperity and democratic development, the statement said. Participants urged party supporters to remain peaceful and focused on advancing the programmes and objectives of the party.

The stakeholders also called on political actors, institutions and other interested parties to respect ongoing judicial proceedings and avoid comments or actions that could interfere with the legal process, according to the communiqué.

At the conclusion of the meeting, participants passed a unanimous vote of confidence in the leadership of Dr. Gbenga Olawepo-Hashim, citing his efforts to strengthen the Accord Party’s structures and presence across wards, local government areas and communities in Kano State and throughout Nigeria, the statement added.

The communiqué was jointly signed by Ambassador Aisha Ibrahim Ya’u, Women Leader, and Bashir Muhammad Goje Alade, North West Coordinator of the Accord Party support group.

 

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In a leaked letter: Deputy Senate President Writes Minister, Seeks Revocation of multi billion Naira Kano–Gwarzo–Dayi Road Contract Over Poor Performance

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The Deputy President of the Senate, Barau I. Jibrin, has written to the Minister of Works, Dave Umahi, requesting the revocation of the contract for the Kano–Gwarzo–Dayi Road project due to the contractor’s poor performance.

The project involves upgrading the approximately 100-kilometre single-lane Kano–Gwarzo–Dayi road into a dual carriageway to improve transportation and facilitate the movement of agricultural produce from rural communities to markets across neighbouring states.

In a leaked letter, sighted by our correspondent which was personally signed by Senator Barau, the lawmaker expressed serious concern over the performance of CGC Nigeria Limited, the contractor handling the project, which was received at the Ministry of Works headquarters on June 8, 2026, noted that despite the allocations of billions to the company.

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Senator Barau stressed that the continued delay in completing the project has negatively affected residents, commuters, and economic activities along the corridor, and called for urgent and immediate action by the Ministry of Works.

According to the letter:
“Given the strategic importance of the Kano–Dayi Road to the socio-economic development of Kano, Katsina and Kebbi States, it is deeply concerning that the contractor has failed to make satisfactory progress despite the allocation of N19 billion and N37 billion to the project under the 2025 and 2026 Appropriation Acts, respectively.

“This persistent lack of progress has resulted in undue hardship for residents, commuters, and other road users.

“In view of the persistent delays and the contractor’s apparent inability to meet expected project milestones, I urge the Ministry to undertake an immediate assessment of its performance and revoke the contract in the interest of the public.”

 

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