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Actors, Likely Alliances And Winner Of Nigeria’s Presidential Election

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Major Presidential candidates Atiku,Obi, Kwankwaso and Tinubu

 

By Hamisu Hadejia

Voters in Africa’s biggest democracy, Nigeria, prepare to go the polls February 2023. They will elect governors, state and federal legislators and the president to lead the biggest African economy when the tenure of the incumbent president Muhammadu Buhari ends on May 29, 2023. Mr Buhari of the All-Progressives Congress (APC) came to power on a wave of populist support with the triple promises to fix Nigeria’s economy, address insecurity and ‘kill corruption before corruption kills Nigeria’. The extent of the success or failure of president Buhari and the ruling APC in fulfilling these promises remain for Nigerians to assess. However, on November 17, the federal government of Nigeria through its statistics bureau (the National Bureau of Statistics) reported that 63% of Nigerians (133 million people) are multidimensionally poor. According to the CIA factbook, Nigeria has a total population size of 225,082,083 million people as of 2022, and most of it consist of young men and women between the age bracket of 18 to 40 years.

Since Nigeria’s return to democratic rule in 1999, the high rate of poverty in the oil-rich West African country especially in the rural areas had forced many voters to barter their votes for monetary and or material rewards from power-hungry politicians. However, two recent developments could significantly curb electoral malpractices related to vote buying and results manipulation. First is the insistence by Prof. Mahmood Yakubu, the chairman of Nigeria’s electoral body, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), to deploy the Bimodal Voter Accreditation (BVA) system and to transmit ‘elections results to the INEC Result Viewing Portal (IReV) in real-time on election day’. On this issue, the INEC chair is backed by section 50 sub-section 2 of the Electoral Act, 2022 which states that ‘voting at an election and transmission of results under this Act shall be in accordance with the procedure determined by the Commission.’ If this is done, election rigging which usually manifests in manipulation of results at the local and state collation centres could be greatly curtailed, if not eliminated. Also, the rampant use of ‘incident forms’ by manipulative politicians to transform registered ghost voters into accredited ones will be significantly minimized by the adoption of the BVA system. Secondly, the decision in October by Nigeria’s apex bank (the CBN) to redesign and replace the country’s top three-naira notes (N200, N500 and N1000) within a three-month window (until January 21, 2023) is seen by many analysts as targeting political moneybags. The CBN though maintains that its currency redesign policy was to mop up the excess unbanked N2.7 trillion (85%) of money in circulation out of the total supply of N3.23 trillion. Whether or not and the extent to which currency redesign policy, introduction of the BVA system and new provisions in the electoral act 2022 will help engender free and fair elections remains to be confirmed in the forthcoming 2023 polls.

However, president Buhari’s vow to bequeath a legacy of free and fair elections in 2023 may be a promise Nigerians can hang onto if the president’s apparent neutral posture during his party’s primaries meant his absence of personal stakes in the next elections. The presidential election is of particular interest to Nigerians and to the international community. Of the 18 presidential contenders, four appear to be the most prominent, namely: former Lagos state governor Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the ruling APC, former vice president Atiku Abubakar of the PDP, former Anambra state governor Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) and former Kano state governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP). What are the strengths and weaknesses of these presidential contenders? Who is likely to carry the day?

To address these questions, I should begin with the caveat that Nigeria’s 2023 presidential election scheduled for February 25th has never been this complicated for the political bookmakers to forecast. There is no doubt that two major political parties—the ruling APC and opposition PDP—still remain the dominant parties. However, the emergence and increasing popularity of such third-party candidates as Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso has made the presidential contests unprecedentedly unpredictable. This is even acknowledged by no less a stakeholder than the electoral body, INEC, which stated on November 18 through its commissioner, Mr Festus Okoye, that it prepares for possible presidential run-off. This position is obviously underpinned by certain new dynamics on the political scene in Nigeria.

Since first republic’s Chief Nnamdi Azikiwe, no Igbo politician—perhaps not even the Biafra secessionist commander-turned-politician Chief Odumegwu Ojukwu and his All-Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA)—has succeeded in uniting the hitherto politically passive and rudderless mainly Christian south-eastern Igbo voters under one political umbrella (the Labour Party). Thus, effectively, each of Nigeria’s three major ethnic groups—Hausa/Fulani, Yoruba and Igbo— now has a formidable presidential candidate in Atiku, Tinubu and Obi, respectively. Historically, region (or ethnic group) and religion have exerted huge influence on politics and voting patterns in Nigeria. Against the backdrop of these and other factors which will be highlighted as we go along in our analysis, how could one rate the chances of these four prominent presidential contenders?

A Yoruba, Muslim and former governor of Lagos, Tinubu hails from the south-western zone which accounts for the second highest number of registered voters (18.3 million out of the total 96.3 million i.e., 19%) in the country. As a candidate of the ruling APC, Tinubu should enjoy the incumbency advantage. However, the circumstances of his winning the party’s primaries—without the overt support of the incumbent president whom he had earlier publicly lampooned in the build up to the primaries when he allegedly got wind of him not being the preferred presidency choice—meant that the incumbency factor may not yet be assured for Asiwaju. Also, the choice of a Muslim vice-presidential candidate in former Borno state governor Kashim Shettima, has pitted Tinubu against the Christians Association of Nigeria (CAN)—the umbrella body for Nigerian Christians which, justifiably or not, feels threatened by the APC’s same faith ticket. Tinubu’s choice of a northern Muslim (rather than a northern Christian) candidate as running mate can hardly be faulted on tactical ground; for although a choice of a northern Christian vice would have indeed balanced the APC ticket on both the regional and religious fault lines, that choice would have alienated the majority of voters in three predominantly Muslim northern geopolitical zones—NW, NE and NC (see figure 1)—which collectively account for 53.1% of total registered Nigerian voters. However, although sentiment of religion—as opposed to that of region (or ethnic group)— is the main thing that makes the average northern Muslim voter tick, it is highly unlikely if APC/Tinubu’s same-faith ticket will confer any extra electoral advantage on Tinubu for two reasons. First, the mood currently in the Muslim-dominated north is that of deep and widespread resentment with the ruling APC and, surprisingly, with Buhari himself who was, before coming to power, almost deified in the region. This dramatic change is attributed to worsening multi-dimensional poverty and pervasive insecurity which seem to have now thrown the average northern (and of course Nigerian) voter in to such a despondency and disillusionment that they have now effectively surrendered the choice of the next president to God—since they, without deferring to His omniscience, voted for Buhari and the result was not as expected or, for many, even catastrophic. Secondly, the PDP’s candidate, Atiku, is also Muslim, which means that both candidates cannot weaponize what Lewis (2007) rightly identifies as the most potent instrument for collective action in the Muslim north—i.e. religion. However, the apparently neutral impact of Tinubu’s same-faith ticket on the majority Muslim northern voters contrasts sharply with the protest it elicited from CAN and other prominent Christian figures and followers.

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But Tinubu is a politician with vast “political logistics” (a euphemism for money required to win elections in Nigeria) and astute organizational capabilities. He also appears to have understood the rudiments of patron-clientelist politics that typifies Nigeria. At the inauguration of his campaign in Jos, Tinubu was able to assemble all 20 APC governors, ministers, and president Buhari to flag off his campaign. He also has significant political capital to make from the rebellion of a group of five (G5) PDP governors who have, since the end of PDP primaries, appeared unwilling to support the candidate of their own party—Atiku. Moreover, northern APC governors’ open support to Tinubu before, during, and after the APC primaries will, if sincere, see them deploy institutional and monetary ‘resources’ to help Asiwaju sweep substantial amounts of the bloc northern votes. I use the conditional ‘if sincere’ to underscore the growing unease among influential northern elites/powerbrokers and electorates with the treatment Atiku is subjected to at the hands of the G-5—a group made up of all Christian governors and all (but one) southern governors. It remains to be seen whether the rebellion of G-5 governors would be an un-disguised blessing for Tinubu or one in disguise for Atiku—if the seeming G-5’s attempt to play the regional/religious cards triggers an equal and opposite reaction up north. For now, two major uncertainties face the APC presidential candidate Bola Tinubu: One, uncertainty about the commitment of the presidency and northern governors/elites whose apparent stakes in Tinubu’s candidacy appear to be limited to the fear of post-tenure probe—something they can risk negotiating with Atiku on if the current general disenchantment with APC lingers on and INEC insists on the use of BVA system which will severely curtail governors’ influence to swing their states to their favourite presidential candidate as they used to. Two, uncertainty about the real electoral consequences of the Christian community’s protests against his Muslim-Muslim ticket. Based on weight to 6 variables (political logistics, home advantage, away (dis)advantage, party popularity, ticket sensitivity, and internal/external networks)—which I codenamed Phaptien Presidential Election Predictor (PPEP)— Tinubu/APC has 35.0% probability of winning the next presidential election.

A Hausa/Fulani, Muslim, and former Nigeria’s vice president, Atiku hails from Adamawa state in the north-east— a zone which has the second least number of registered voters (12.8 million or 13.3%). Atiku’s major strengths are built on five pillars. First, the northern region he comes from has substantial electoral strength with a combined total of 53.1% of registered voters—and should it go down to the wire, he’ll be the clear favourite to sweep most of these votes . Secondly, his party’s balanced (Muslim-Christian) ticket has attracted no opposition from the Christian community. Thirdly, Atiku is also a man of enormous ‘political logistics’ and experience in political mobilization having contested for the presidency on five previous occasions. Fourthly, although without de jure incumbency advantage, Atiku looks set to gain from the lukewarm attitude of some APC politicians, ministers and other interests not favourably disposed to the Tinubu candidacy. For instance, in an interview in October, the current Minister of Labour and Employment, Mr Chris Ngige, refused to show open commitment to the presidential candidate of the ruling party. The body language of almost all current federal ministers betrays this palpable nonchalance to Tinubu’s candidacy. Fifthly, connecting some critical dots together, Atiku appears to enjoy the support of one of the two powerful camps of former military officers/rulers i.e., the camp of former General Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida (IBB) consisting of such influential retired Generals as T.Y Danjuma and Aliyu Gusau. The other one-man camp of former General/President Olusegun Obasanjo appears to be somewhat neutral—that is, if we gloss over the surprisingly very warm reception Obasanjo recently accorded the APC candidate Tinubu with whom he has had bitter political bones to pick.

However, the major challenge for Atiku now is the rebellion of the G-5 governors led by Mr Nyesom Wike—the Governor of Nigeria’s oil-rich Rivers state, which also has the fourth highest number of registered voters in the country. The extent to which G-5 rebellion will affect the chances of Atiku in the presidential election will substantially depend on whether or not INEC deploys the BVA system, which, as argued above, will significantly curtail the influence of governors to swing their states as they desire. Also, the open belligerence of G-5 members to Atiku appears to be having the unintended effects of slowly but surely shifting the sympathy of northern elites and electorates in Atiku’s favour. Just the same way the persistently vehement opposition to APC’s Muslim-Muslim ticket by some prominent northern Christians (such as the former SGF Babachir Lawal and former HoR speaker Yakubu Dogara) is beginning to shift the sympathy of sections of voters in the north towards the APC candidate. Based on PPEP, Atiku currently has 37.5% probability of wining the presidential election.

An Igbo and Christian, former governor of Anambra state, Mr Peter Gregory Obi, comes from the south-eastern zone which has the least number of registered voters (11.5 million or 11.9%). However, Obi’s strength comes from his passionate youthful supporters (nicknamed Obidients) who appear to be in the majority among the registered voters in the south-eastern and south-southern zones. Being the only prominent Christian candidate, Obi also appears to enjoy the sympathy of some voters from this community across the zones. Like the PDP, Labour Party’s Obi’s ticket is also balanced with his vice-presidential candidate, Datti Baba-Ahmad, being a northern Muslim—although an insignificant figure politically. However, in terms of ‘political logistics’, it is doubtful if Obi or his Labour Party has the potentials to ‘mobilize’ voters on a national scale. I can, on a first thought, project Obi to, hands down, win the majority of votes in the south-east and south-south and, possibly, secure the 25% minimum votes in Lagos and, probably, a few other states—that is, if current opposition against Tinubu’s same-faith ticket is of any real electoral significance. However, I can wager my bottom dollar that Obi cannot garner the minimum required 25% votes in 24 states and a simple majority in the first round just like it is also quite unclear who can actually pull that feat between Tinubu and Atiku. Now who, between Atiku and Tinubu, stands to gain or lose from the Obi phenomenon? I think the fact that the bulk of Obi’s supporters were hitherto traditionally pro-PDP and could have otherwise been supporting the PDP/Atiku would plausibly mean that Atiku has lost one of his strongholds. However, Atiku’s loss is obviously no gain for APC here. In fact, if the presidential polls go down to the wire and a re-run is required as widely speculated, alliances between Obi and Atiku look more likely than between Obi and Tinubu—for albeit sharing the same region (south) and, to a large extent, religion (Christianity), the Igbos and Yorubas do not see eye to eye politically. The two major southern ethno-linguistic groups still struggle with solving the Olsonian collective action problem, unlike the predominantly Muslim north (see Lewis, 2007). This highlights the ambiguity of Obi’s impact on the candidates of the two major parties (APC and PDP). Based on PPEP, Obi has 17.5% probability of winning the presidential elections in February.

Former Kano state Governor and Minister of Defence, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso is also a Hausa/Fulani Muslim contesting on the platform of the NNPP. Kwankwaso’s main strength derives from his influence in Kano—a state with the highest number of voters in the north (over 6 million). Kwankwaso’s populist policies have earned him the support of voters among the peasantry in many northern states. However, Kwankwaso’s political reach outside the north is limited mainly to communities of northern migrant workers resident in a coterie of affluent southern states. Like Obi, Kwankwaso is also of limited ‘political logistics’ and looks set to be to Atiku what Obi is to Tinubu. Falling out with the PDP and its top brasses including Atiku, Kwankwaso broke away to form his NNPP apparently on a personal mission to assert his influence or play the spoiler role for PDP/Atiku as some allege. If the presidential election goes down to the wire, it is more likely for Kwankwaso to ally with Tinubu than with Atiku—especially if Kwankwaso is able to weather the storm of multi-faceted pressure currently directed at him by some northern elites/powerbrokers to drop his ambition. Based on PPEP, Kwankwaso 10.0% probability of winning.

To sum up, it is obvious that the emergence of two increasingly popular third-party candidates in Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso have, to an extent, altered what would traditionally have been a two-horse race between two major Nigeria’s political parties—the APC (Tinubu) and PDP (Atiku). However, when the evidence are considered, none of the two third-party candidates has the real potentials to win the presidential contest—although they now look set to, unprecedentedly, have a significant, even indispensable, role to play in who eventually wins the ticket. Other important factors/variables that can influence the outcome of the presidential election pertain to recent amendments in the electoral act especially regarding the use of the Bi-modal Voter Accreditation (BMA) system, and electronic transmission of results from the polling units to the collection centre in real time. Also, depending on dynamics related to the actions, inactions and utterances of political actors, we can expect alignment and re-alignment of forces in both predictable and unpredictable directions going forward. But, in the final analysis, and for now—because time is of the essence in politics—the odds seem to slightly favour the PDP presidential candidate—Atiku Abubakar.

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Senator Barau and Endorsement (s) Palaver : An Assessment

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By Abba Anwar

Recent events concerning endorsement of the Deputy Senate President, Distinguished Senator Barau I Jibrin, CFR, by the former Chairmen of local governments in Kano state, for the position of a governor, is not only attractive, the endorsement is a picture depicting what to come and what not to come.

Though some Chairmen came out immediately, to dissociate selves from the endorsement story, I still believe that, those who were with the DSP at the endorsement table, have every tight to make their own political choices. Yes political choice is a right ascribe to all citizens by laws, rules and regulations governing political behaviors of the citizenry.

Take it or leave it, such endorsements, including the one from the part of the former Commissioners, who served under the former Governor Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, CON, were not in place by nature or accident. Yes some of the Commissioners came out to dismiss, the endorsement, as did by some former Chairmen.

The thing is, Barau, Nasiru Yusuf Gawuna and Murtala Sule Garo, among others, have every right to contest for any position, come 2027 political rainy season. Even those who may have interest and waiting for the time and situation, to become deciding factors (raba gardama), they too, have an equal right to contest alongside Barau, Gawuna and Garo.

The debate about will it be Barau or Gawuna or Garo or any other person, is dependent upon examined chances, opportunities and rightful political behavior of the major actors. While a SWOT analysis can provide clearer platform for good assessment, individual belief in the real project, can also strengthen the entire process.

By SWOT analysis I mean, both the leadership and followership within the realm of All Progressives Congress (APC) and other non-APC people, including mere voters, those who only appear to cast vote during elections, but do not belong to any political party, demand to gauge and weigh individual preference concerning Strength, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT), then the real picture of who is likely to win or lose and election will emerge.

For example, one cannot still take away credits like attachment to grassroot, link with all segments of the party, deeply entrenched state visibility, frankness in all matters, display of clear direction to all people he relates with, real and genuine Tawakkul (giving everything to Allah), kalamu waheed (keeping his words), if you like and remembering his people under sun under rain, from Garo.

For Barau, you cannot take away from him qualities like, deep knowledge of national politics, more knowledgeable about worldview, carrying many things on his head, to the point that many see him as an always – busy-leader, who quickly forgets those around him, because he plans for their better tomorrow, very productive representative whose primary constituency is always in his chest and an a dear leader with an infrastructural-mind. You see structures everywhere courtesy him.

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As for Gawuna, my reader and I, cannot take away from him qualities like, very charismatic, gorgeous, whose political gorgeousness takes him closer to people, particularly urban dwellers, receptive and accomodative appearance, from the first look at him, smily face, signifying open mind and simple.

My assessment of these gentlemen is how people see them. While I will not say a word on their shortcomings, because some could be subjective positions from people’s view, mine is just to give advice to the party, both leaders and followers and the endorsement process.

Lest I forget, left to me, Barau will be more productive when fixed in higher position there. Is just a matter of lobbying. If at all, we have good lobbyists from Kano, now. Any position above his current position. Or similar, with more impact. Mention any position that comes to your mind. This is my understanding of his self development. But one shouldn’t be shielded from his political choice. Yes agreed, he can be fix in all positions.

From the look of things, Gawuna – Garo ticket may not hold millions of litters of water. Hence, not a switchover of the duo’s ticket, but a provision of level playing ground, where each one of them has equal right and opportunity to contest for the gubernatorial seat. Whoever emerges at the intra – party election, can get the full support of the other. This, to me, is doable. Still Gawuna and Garo should have access and right to their freewill.

At the same time, those who appear to be cowards, politically, like Inuwa Waya, should be re-invited to rejoin the party and the race. At least for the life saving intervention of their political survival and strategy. Even if Waya is patiently waiting for any opportunity for returning match against those who alleged to have deceived him in the past, I think he should be patient enough to slug it out from within. He alone, for his political survival, is entitled to his democratic choice.

Kano’s gubernatorial race come 2027, may not witness anything close to an upcoming of a dark horse or dark horses in the race. Unless if a dark horse is abruptly coming from the other side of the table. I may be right or wrong. I also stand to be corrected.

For all aspirants, kindly remind yourselves the simple, bitter and indisputable truth that, resources alone are not always determining factor for political victory. What depicts this polical historicity are the cases of the period of the first civilian governor of old Kano state, Muhammad Abubakar Rimi. Followed by Malam Ibrahim Shekarau’s period.

Though during Rimi one could argue that, there was refined political ideology, as a driving force for democratic culture, democracy and political behavior for all the then political parties. But during Shakarau, political ideology was utterly absent compared to Rimi’s time. But there was a movement, called Guguwar Buhari or at best Buhariyya movement. In all the two scenarios nowhere, resources alone gave victory.

Politics goes with time, happenings, breaking situations, political development, existing structures, level of engagement and genuine realities at play. So 2027 will definitely not come with fresh polical ideology and Guguwar Buhari. But, and but, there could be a more fresher development that can take the centrestage.

Endorsement, endorsement and endorsement. I have no problem with any form of endorsement. But proponents of endorsement should be wise enough to play their cards in a way that they will not be swindled. I mean endorsement to any individual must be vigilant, strategic and cautious.

Come to think of these scenarios. Barau- Baffa Dan Agundi ticket, Garo-Zaura ticket, Gawuna-Garo ticket. A food for thought to all.

While Kano is bigger than imposition of candidates, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is not a new entrant into political struggle and fight for sustainable democracy, if Kano APC will not and is not ready to work together, it is very simple for Tinubu to uproot them from the stage and replace them with any choice he deems fit.

My take. Where Garo can make a no-nonsense Governor, where discipline reigns, Gawuna can make a modern Governor, where charisma reigns and Barau can make a clever Governor whose attachment to all can be not strong and temporary, with sound knowledge of national politics.

Anwar writes from Kano
Thursday, 4th December, 2027

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Dear President Tinubu, Murtala Sule Garo Matters

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By Aminu Dahiru

Ever since the All Progressives Congress (APC) lost the 2023 governorship election in Kano State, a highly contested race, which ended in the court, I have been expecting President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to find a space within his cabinet or somewhere else to accommodate the APC deputy governorship candidate of the party in the state in the 2023 election in Kano State, Alhaji Murtala Sule Garo.

My readers may ask why I am bringing up the issue of Alhaji Murtala Sule Garo now and of what significance is this call to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s political future.

I have observed and analyzed the president’s political journey, what some call the political sagacity of His Excellency President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, and have come to the conclusion that Tinubu takes grassroots mobilization or movements and their movers seriously. This is one reason which makes the president a political wizard of our time. And by every standard, Murtala Sule Garo is out to add a touch of vitality to the “Renewed Hope Agenda”, which has its roots so deep in service to Nigeria.

Being the most populous state and potentially the biggest democracy in Nigeria, Kano remains a strong voting bloc capable of shaping elections. Therefore, identifying and drawing near those who can detect Kano’s political pulse should be one of the president’s prime concerns.

The political enigma, the youth triumphantly call “Commander”, Alhaji Murtala Sule Garo is a formidable political figure in Kano State and beyond. He commands hundreds of youth organizations.

For years, Alhaji Murtala Sule Garo has been in the possession of the string; he moves youth movements in the state at one go. However, this is not for nothing. Garo labored for it and conquered the hearts of youths. Youth and women empowerment, job creation, and commitment to social development top agendas in Alhaji Murtala Sule’s political dictionary.

Thick Political Muscles …

Arguably, aside from the immediate past National Chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Dr Abdullahi Umar Ganduje CON, Alhaji Murtala Sule Garo is the most prominent and active political figure in the APC in Kano State. The teaming youth and women he commands are evidence of this. From Garo in Kabo Local Government to Gabasawa LG, Dambata to Gaya LG, Commander’s political structure runs across the forty-four local government areas of Kano state; and this political motorcade slews through villages, towns and cities. Youths flow in on a daily basis.

For example, the one-million-man campaign march for Tinubu Ganduje led in Kano State prior to the 2023 presidential election, along with many more political mobilizations, owes its success to Alhaji Murtala Sule Garo’s effective mobilization skills. The commander is to Ganduje what “Man Friday” to Robinson Crusoe. Trust, loyalty and capacity bind the two political leaders.

Garo is Green…

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The Tinubu administration needs to pay more attention to and invest more on nurturing youth – youth inclusion. Undoubtedly, the government has appointed youths into key positions. As President Tinubu envisaged it, still youth inclusion is the future of politics in Nigeria and Alhaji Murtala Sule Garo symbolizes healing, health, youth and political fertility. He is someone to whom hundreds of thousands of youths look up to.

A source of delight to Kano APC members…

In government and out of government this political figure has given a political lifeline to APC members in Kano State. For example, during Ramadan and Sallah festivities, Alhaji Murtala Sule Garo donated millions of naira to families, party elders and the APC social media team members. He has clung to this habit of fertilizing the party ever since.

It was to calm the nerves of the Commander’s teeming supporters that Dr Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, on a podium, told the APC supporters in the state that Alhaji Murtala Sule Garo’s appointment is underway. This did not only put a smile on the faces of the audience, but also rekindled hope.

Youth have been yearning to see loyal party members and capacitated political leaders like Commander appointed into key positions; to them this, equates life and/or an ever-lasting commitment to their well-being.

Garo and Detractors
There are strong allegations that some individuals in key positions are working tirelessly to block Alhaji Murtala Sule Garo from receiving a federal government appointment. They fear that Commander’s rising popularity is eclipsing their perceived failure. But this approach is shortsighted and dangerous.

The APC in Kano state urgently needs Garo’s expertise and widespread appeal to unseat the ruling NNPP in 2027.

To date, despite his being out of government for a while, Garo is the most acceptable APC member in Kano state, owing to his generosity.

Kano 2023 governorship election

Despite the apparent challenges which hindered the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Kano from retaining the governorship seat, the party’s candidate, Nasiru Yusuf Gawuna, still managed to secure 890,705 votes, representing approximately 45.03% of the total votes, as against Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf, who polled 019,602, approximately 51.55%.

Traditionally the people of Kano state tend to grow disenchanted with any government or a political party after every eight years, often opting for change But Alhaji Murtala Sule Garo’s exceptional organisational capacity to mobilization skills played a crucial role in preventing the party from suffering a complete loss.

There were perceptions that the Buhari-led Federal Government was determined to politically humiliate former governor Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, thereby complicating the APC position in the state. We all know what happened in court.

Garo and Kano by-elections

Renowned politicians and political pundits have pointed out that the APC’s loss in Bagwai/Shanono state assembly by election and as well as its narrow escape from defeat in Ghari/Tsanyawa state assembly by-election can largely be attributed to the sidelining of Commander. The margin of 10,851 votes in Bagwai/Shanono was a clear sign of the party’s weakened grassroots presence. In Ghari/Tsanyawa it was alleged that over voting saved the APC from loss.

Many believe that the absence of a trusted grassroots mobilizer like Commander significantly impacted the APC’s performance in the elections. His deep connection with voters would have made a big difference and possibly led the party to victory.

Despite these encumbrances, based on the foregoing, I respectfully urge someone within the corridors of power to convey this crucial message to President Tinubu. The prolonged delay in the appointment of Alhaji Murtala Sule Garo should amicably and decisively be addressed.

Commander is a political asset akin to tonnes of fertilizer that has kept political fields in Kano State fertile and vibrant.

Your Excellency, granting a political appointment to this widely respected political figure will be a significant boost to the APC’s chances of reclaiming in 2027.

Aminu Dahiru wrote from Gwale, Kano

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Senator Barau Jibril and the Political Reclamation of Kano State by the APC

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Dr Suleiman Saboda Sarki

 

The resurgence of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Kano State cannot be possible without the pivotal role being played by Senator Barau Jibril. Known for his humility, visionary leadership, and people-centered politics, Senator Barau has become a stabilizing force and a unifier whose actions have revitalized public confidence in the APC. His contributions span human development, infrastructure, peace-building, and political inclusivity that formed a comprehensive foundation for the party’s reclamation of political strength in Kano state. This can be attested by looking at the following:

Leadership Rooted in Humility and Compassion

Senator Barau Jibril’s rise to political prominence is anchored in a character defined by humility and compassion. His leadership style emphasizes service rather than self-promotion, fostering trust among citizens. He maintains a close relationship with communities, listens to their concerns, and approaches governance with empathy. This humility has positioned him as a leader who understands the struggles of ordinary people and responds with genuine care and approach that strengthens the APC’s moral legitimacy in Kano State.

Commitment to Human and Infrastructural Development

A key hallmark of Senator Barau’s political vision is his dedication to both human and infrastructural development. He consistently advocates for initiatives aimed at empowering citizens through education, skill acquisition, and economic opportunities. Additionally, his focus on infrastructure such as transport networks, public facilities, community development projects reflects his belief that strong physical structures are essential for long-term growth. By successfully merging these two dimensions of development, he has broadened the APC’s influence and demonstrated what purposeful leadership can achieve.

Healthy, Non-Vindictive Politics

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In a society where political competition often breeds hostility, Senator Barau stands out for practicing politics without grudges. He maintains cordial relationships across political divides and emphasizes dialogue over confrontation. This disposition has helped reduce needless tensions within the state’s political environment and fostered unity within the APC. His insistence on reconciliation and maturity in political conduct has strengthened the party and endeared him to both supporters and neutral observers.

Equitable Execution of Capital Projects Across All Senatorial Districts

Senator Barau is widely acknowledged for ensuring that development does not stop at the borders of his constituencies. His approach prioritizes equity, ensuring that capital projects are executed across all senatorial districts of Kano State. This even distribution of development such as spanning roads, schools, health facilities, and community empowerment projects has created a sense of inclusion for all regions. As a result, citizens increasingly view the APC as a party committed to fairness and statewide progress.

Champion of Peace and Stability

Peace and stability are prerequisites for meaningful development, and Senator Barau has consistently championed both. Through active engagement with traditional rulers, community leaders, youth groups, and political actors, he promotes dialogue as the most effective conflict-resolution tool. His role in mediating tensions and encouraging harmonious coexistence has significantly contributed to the environment of political stability that allowed the APC to regain strong footing in the state.

Facilitating Federal Appointments for Kano Indigenes

Another key contribution of Senator Barau is his role in ensuring that Kano State indigenes are adequately represented at the federal level. Through strategic advocacy and political influence, he facilitated the appointments of qualified Kano citizens into various federal government positions. These appointments not only empower individuals but also strengthen Kano’s relevance in national decision-making. This inclusive representation boosts local confidence in the APC’s commitment to the state’s growth and visibility.

Advancing Education Through Institutions and Sponsorships

Senator Barau has also demonstrated an unwavering commitment to the advancement of Kano State. This is evident in his efforts to support the establishment of higher learning institutions and affiliated centers that expand access to quality education. Additionally, he has sponsored numerous students to pursue studies within Nigeria and abroad, thus fostering a new generation of empowered, skilled citizens. His dedication to education reflects his belief that developing human capital is the most sustainable path to long-term progress and political stability.

Finally, the political reclamation of Kano State by the APC will be a multifaceted achievement, and Senator Barau Jibril’s influence stands at its core. His humility, compassion, development-driven governance, peaceful politics, inclusive leadership, and unwavering investment in people have combined to strengthen the APC’s credibility and reconnect it with the aspirations of Kano’s citizens. Senator Barau represents a model of leadership where integrity meets action by offering a blueprint for how political service can truly uplift a state and its people.

Dr. Usman Suleiman Sarki Madobi

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