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Zulum is Coming-Dr Aliyu Tilde

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Professor Babagana Umara Zulum

 

People should forgive my ignorance if what I write here does not come to pass. His Excellency, Professor Babagana U. Zulum, the Governor of Borno State, the subject of this article, should overlook my wrong forecast at the political climate and not feel offended if indeed I am proven wrong. It is just an attempt to add one to another to make two. I have not spoken to him or to any politician about the 2023 presidency. My only sources on the matter are the eyes of a keen observer and the ears of a good listener. Now, come with me.

Professor Zulum dissolved his cabinet yesterday. This is quite unusual of a straight forward person whose appointments are determined more by merit than by political expediency. Is there an emergency? Yes, I think.

His ruling All Peoples Congress (APC) has been playing chess with the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) regarding the zoning of the Presidency. Our friend, Farouk Adamu Aliyu, a confidant of the President, has about a year ago told the BBC Hausa Service that their party’s choice for president will depend on the choice of the opposition—meaning, if the PDP would give a northerner its ticket, then APC will have no choice but to do so too. The North is where the bulk of the votes resides.

That calculation still holds. The APC Chairman said as much last week when he said that the ticket of the party is open to all interested aspirants. APC is not doing this at its own volition. In fact, it has some very sleezy remarks for PDP’s likelihood to field a northern candidate. In an interview published by Punch three days ago, Mr. Osita Okechukwu, a founding father of the PDP furiously accused PDP of being Machiavellian and responsible for APC’s return to the drawing board. Mr. Okechukwu:

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“They (PDP) want to capture power by all means, indeed using Machiavellian tactics. We all know that PDP is famished, thirsty and desperate to win Presidency in 2023… The PDP is aware that President Buhari will not be on the ballot in 2023, therefore, for them there is a void to fill. They must have reasoned that the Buhari’s Vote Bank would be up for grabs if they go north. The PDP’s calculation is a desperate one, and selfish to the extent that they breached their own constitution and their age-long die-hard supporters in the South, especially the South-East.”

Here, I wonder who is more desperate for power between the APC and the PDP. Mr. Okechukwu and the APC should then be more pious and politically correct than the PDP by sticking to a southern presidential ticket. But abandoning the south and looking up north, thus copycatting the PDP, leaves him and his party at no better moral position than the former. And if indeed President Buhari has a 12 million votes bank, why would not the APC just sit back, ask the him to open his vote bank and give his party the 12 million it claims is there? The truth is that pragmatic politicians like the Chairman of the party, Senator Abdullahi Adamu, knows very well that those votes are no longer there. They have been washed away by seven years of Buhari’s presidency to the extent that today you cannot find again him appearing on the poster of any northern candidate—from counsellor to president.

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People like the APC National Chairman knows that losing power in Nigeria is “next in agony only to Day of Judgement,” as the Chairman of PDP in Bauchi State put it with all seriousness at the party’s stakeholders meeting way back in 2020. The APC National Chairman was himself a PDP Governor. He is only being honest. Rather than give the ticket to a southerner when the party has failed northerners by the low performance of the President and lose the election to a northern PDP candidate, he is ready to throw away the moral costume of zoning and save the party and its members a day of judgement on earth. He honestly knows that today Northerners are not safe and comfortable enough to brave a southern presidency. They are not at all in a gentleman’s mood of 1999.

In its choice of a northern candidate, we all expect the APC under Senator Adamu to be ruthlessly surgical. He knows well that former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Governors Bala Mohammed, Aminu Tambuwal and Bukola Saraki are there to break into the “12 million vote bank,” and selecting a less renowned candidate in the APC means apocalypse for the party in 2003.

Coming to the north, the APC would naturally go for someone more appealing to the electorate than just a shared regional identity. Afterall, nobody can be more northern than the Turaki of Adamawa, the Kauran Bauchi, or the Mutawallen Sokoto. APC needs someone who is both northern, undoubtedly, and who can sweep the votes as certain as tomorrow’s sunrise in its favour, someone who has the additional quality that northerners always crave for: a penchant for the common man, a bent for justice and, now, after the sad experience of Buhari, a brave performer who cannot sacrifice the north for any other region and who can arrest the unprecedented level of insecurity and underdevelopment in the region with the courage of a warrior. In short, he must be the athlete who, right from when the gun is fired, when the candidates emerge, give the PDP a good run for its money, making the elections conclusive before they even take place.

This is where Professor Zulum comes into APC presidential equation. Than him there is not an APC candidate today in the north who can foot the above bill better for the party. It is a pervasive perception in the north that he is honest, brave, courageous, competent, down to earth, no-nonsense, empathetic—the embodiment of northern perception of an iconic leader and thus to the Machiavellian APC, the perfect Tyson who, on a good day, to knockout the PDP with a bloody nose within few seconds of the match. Few northerners, if any, can bet their dime against this. I am not doubting that there are candidates that can perform as well as Zulum in the PDP. However, politics, they say, is about perception. It favours Zulum. Add to it the incumbency privileges of the CBN, INEC, Aso Villa and other uncountable resources of government.

Zulum has therefore found himself in the position of many other unintentional candidates who ruled this country before: Tafawa Balewa, 1976 Obasanjo, Shagari, 1984 Buhari, 1999 Obasanjo, Yar’adua, and Jonathan. He has not bought the form yet, even as I write this article. That is not to say that there have not been behind the scene consultations on the matter between him and the Party. There must have been some. But it was getting late as at yesterday. Hence the cabinet dissolution—I continue to think.

If our speculation on this emergency is correct, Zulum has to rush and dissolve the cabinet because there is no gubernatorial candidate of APC in his Borno State and INEC is adamant on its June 6 deadline for parties to submit the names of their candidates. Going beyond 6 May means that in case Zulum is contesting for the Presidency—which many strongly believe he will be conscripted by his party to do at the dying minute—no member of his cabinet would succeed him because they will not be able to meet the one-month statutory requirement of quitting any political appointment before the party’s primaries.

That is why as soon as I heard yesterday that he has dissolved his cabinet, I heard the sound of the last pin drop in the dark, quiet night of my supposition, 500 km from Maiduguri . Otherwise, it is not in the style of the tall, straight-forward professor to dissolve a cabinet this late in his tenure. With it done now, his cabinet members and indeed any other APC member in Borno can aspire to contest the seat of the Governor.

Zulum is coming.

Dr. Aliyu U. Tilde
6 May 2022

Opinion

Amnesty International Report and My Questions to Them

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– Sufyan Lawal Kabo

sefjamil3@gmail.com

 

The recent condemnation issued by Amnesty International against the Kano State Government over the alleged killing of five persons during activities surrounding the swearing in of the new Deputy Governor has continued to raise serious concerns among many observers in Kano.

 

While every responsible citizen condemns violence and the loss of innocent lives, many are asking whether Amnesty International acted professionally and fairly before rushing to issue a strong public accusation against the government of Kano State.

 

Amnesty International, can a government that has invested heavily in ending political thuggery and street violence genuinely be accused of sponsoring the same violence it is fighting to eliminate?

 

Would a government that established the Safe Corridor Kano Model, profiled thousands of repentant youths, and committed over six hundred million naira for rehabilitation, empowerment and reintegration of former thugs suddenly turn around to encourage killings and chaos?

 

Can Amnesty International deny the fact that Kano has battled political thuggery and Yan Daba violence for decades, long before the present administration came into office? And among previous administrations, which government confronted the problem more directly than the administration of Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf?

 

What political benefit would any serious government gain from encouraging violence against citizens at a time it is working to secure public trust ahead of future elections?

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Before issuing its condemnation, did Amnesty International contact the Kano State Government, the Police, DSS, Civil Defence, or any recognised security agency in Kano to verify the allegation properly? Or has social media content now become sufficient evidence for an international organisation claiming credibility and neutrality?

 

How did Amnesty International arrive at such a sensitive conclusion without presenting verifiable evidence to the public? And how sure are the people of Kano that those supplying information to the organisation are not politically biased individuals determined to damage the image of the present administration?

 

Is it professional for a respected international body to release emotionally charged reports involving deaths and violence without balanced investigation, fair hearing, or proper engagement with relevant authorities?

 

Can Amnesty International also deny the visible security efforts of the Kano State Government under Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf, including stronger collaboration with security agencies, community security initiatives, deployment of operational support, and consistent public warnings against political violence and hooliganism?

 

If the government’s objective was violence, why would it continue investing public resources into youth rehabilitation, anti thuggery programmes and community peace initiatives?

 

The truth remains that Kano State Government has already condemned every act of violence connected to the incident and security agencies are reportedly investigating the matter. The government has also maintained its commitment to bringing perpetrators to justice according to law.

 

Amnesty International must therefore understand that careless or poorly verified reports on sensitive matters can create unnecessary tension, damage public confidence and unfairly malign governments making visible efforts to solve difficult social problems.

Kano deserves fairness. The people deserve peace. And organisations claiming international credibility must uphold professionalism, objectivity and thorough investigation before issuing reports capable of inflaming public emotions and damaging institutional reputations.

 

Sefjamil writes from Abuja

 

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Opinion

Evidence First: Why Amnesty International’s Kano Claims Cannot Stand-Mamman Iro

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By Mamman Iro Kano

May 7, 2026

On May 5, 2026, Kano State witnessed a moment of constitutional significance. Alhaji Murtala Sule Garo was formally sworn in as Deputy Governor, completing the executive structure of an administration that has navigated months of political turbulence with a clarity and a purposefulness that its governance record continues to validate. Within hours of that ceremony, Amnesty International released a report alleging that five people had been killed in connection with the event. The Kano State Government, in a formal press statement signed by the Commissioner for Information and Internal Affairs, Ibrahim Abdullahi Waiya, described the claim as misleading, unfounded, and mischievous, stating that active inquiries conducted with relevant security agencies produced no official report or credible evidence to support it, and that no violent incident occurred at the Kano State Government House or its surroundings during the official function. That irreconcilable gap between what Amnesty International alleged and what verified institutional assessments confirm is where this analysis begins, and where the evidence, examined honestly and without partisan filter, must ultimately speak for itself.

Let us be precise about what Amnesty International has alleged, because precision about the nature of an allegation determines the standard of evidence required to sustain it. This is not a vague claim about generalised insecurity in a northern Nigerian state. It is a specific allegation that five human beings were killed in direct connection with a formal state government ceremony, at or near the seat of the Kano State executive. That is among the most serious categories of claim available in the vocabulary of human rights reporting, and it carries a correspondingly heavy evidentiary burden. It attributes to a sitting administration not merely a failure to prevent violence but a direct and operational causal relationship between its own institutional activities and the deaths of five people. The fundamental question this analysis asks is straightforward: does the available evidence meet that burden? On the basis of the documented record, the answer is no.

The government’s rebuttal, issued through Commissioner Waiya on the same day as the Amnesty International report, establishes several institutionally grounded counter-claims that any responsible assessment must engage with seriously rather than dismiss as reflexive political defensiveness. The government states that it conducted active inquiries with relevant security agencies specifically to investigate the alleged incident and found no official report or credible evidence to support it. It states that no violent incident occurred at Government House or its surroundings during the swearing-in ceremony. It further notes that the Nigerian leadership of Amnesty International has, in its assessment, repeatedly demonstrated bias and unprofessional conduct in reports relating to Kano State while overlooking comparable developments elsewhere in the country, and it has called upon the organisation’s international leadership to monitor its Nigerian chapter’s activities in order to protect the organisation’s global integrity. These are specific, falsifiable, and institutionally grounded positions. They deserve the same investigative engagement that Amnesty International’s original allegations received, and the absence of independent forensic confirmation of the alleged deaths from any local security structure, community stakeholder, or civil society organisation with verifiable on-the-ground presence represents a critical and unresolved gap in the evidentiary foundation upon which the international narrative rests.

The methodological questions raised by this incident go beyond the specific facts of May 5, 2026, and engage with a broader and more consequential concern about how international human rights monitoring is conducted in environments as politically complex as Kano State. In today’s digital information environment, allegations circulate at velocities that far outpace the deliberate, forensically grounded verification processes that responsible documentation requires. Video content spreads without verified timestamps, geographic authentication, or editorial context. Short clips are selectively edited and repurposed, constructing plausible-seeming narratives from fragmentary and decontextualised evidence. Responsible human rights reporting, particularly in a state with Kano’s political and security complexity, must demonstrably rise above these limitations. Any attempt to directly implicate a state government in acts of organised violence must be supported by credible forensic evidence establishing verifiable operational linkages between institutional authority and the specific conduct alleged, verified intelligence assessments from recognised security structures, a documented understanding of the longstanding criminal rivalries and territorial disputes operating among youth groups in the affected communities, and independent on-the-ground verification involving community leaders, traditional authorities, and civil society organisations before conclusions are publicly disseminated. The Unifier Project’s considered assessment is that the claims advanced against Kano State on May 7, 2026, do not demonstrably meet these standards.

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Beyond the specific facts of May 5, the broader institutional record of the Kano State Government presents a body of documented evidence that fundamentally complicates the narrative of state-sponsored violence. The administration’s Safe Corridor Kano Model, its flagship rehabilitative intervention targeting youth restiveness and street violence, has already profiled over 2,030 repentant youths for enrollment into its structured rehabilitation and reintegration programme. More than six hundred million naira has been approved for the first phase alone, targeting one thousand beneficiaries through vocational training, psychosocial support, and community reintegration pathways. These are not aspirational policy commitments. They are quantified, budgeted, and operationally active institutional investments in dismantling the conditions that produce youth violence. The logical incompatibility between an administration that has committed over N600 million to youth rehabilitation and an administration simultaneously accused of orchestrating the killing of citizens at its own official functions is not a rhetorical flourish. It is a substantive evidentiary consideration that any responsible investigation is obligated to address directly and honestly before reaching the conclusions that Amnesty International has chosen to advance.

The full governance record of this administration further deepens that incompatibility. Kano State is implementing a N1.477 trillion budget for 2026, the largest in its history, with 68 percent directed at capital projects. It has invested over N800 million in youth empowerment programmes benefiting more than 5,300 young people, disbursed over N334 million directly to 6,680 women entrepreneurs across all 44 local government areas, and deployed 2,000 trained Neighbourhood Watch operatives as a community-centred security intervention designed to reduce violent confrontations at the grassroots level. Kano ranked first in Nigeria’s 2025 NECO results. Its hospitals are being upgraded. Its roads are being rebuilt. Its farmers are receiving fertiliser, its dams are being constructed, and its young people are being empowered with tools, capital, and opportunity. This is the operational context within which any characterisation of this administration’s relationship to the welfare and safety of its citizens must be situated. It is a context that demands engagement rather than dismissal from any monitoring body that claims to be conducting evidence-based human rights assessment.

There is a further dimension to this controversy that must be named clearly and without diplomatic evasion. The perception, held by a growing number of informed observers within Kano’s civic and political communities, that Amnesty International applies differential levels of scrutiny to Kano State relative to comparable or more severe situations elsewhere in Nigeria, is not a fringe complaint or a partisan deflection. It is a concern about the institutional evenhandedness that determines whether human rights advocacy functions as a genuine instrument of accountability or as a mechanism of selective narrative construction. When a state government with a documented N600 million rehabilitation investment, a quantified youth empowerment record, and a formal security agency finding of no evidence for the alleged incident is subjected to internationally amplified allegations of organised violence without the forensic verification that such allegations require, the credibility deficit that results belongs not only to the monitoring organisation but to the broader enterprise of international human rights advocacy whose authority depends on its perceived consistency and impartiality. This is a concern that the international leadership of Amnesty International, if it takes its institutional mission seriously, cannot afford to disregard.

The position advanced in this commentary is neither anti-accountability nor pro-impunity. It is, precisely and unambiguously, pro-evidence. Accountability without evidence is not accountability. It is accusation. And accusation, however institutionally prestigious its source, does not become fact through repetition, amplification, or the authority of the body advancing it. It becomes fact through verification, corroboration, and the honest and transparent application of the evidentiary standards that distinguish responsible human rights documentation from the uncritical transmission of unverified claims. Kano State, its government, its institutions, and its 20 million people deserve to be assessed on the basis of verified evidence rather than viral narratives. The international community deserves human rights reporting that it can trust because it has earned that trust through methodological rigour rather than claimed through institutional reputation. And the communities of Kano State, who live with the real and daily consequences of how their home is characterised to the world, deserve nothing less than the truth, told with the honesty, the precision, and the evidentiary integrity that their situation demands. Evidence must come first. It must always come first. And until it does, claims of the gravity advanced against Kano on May 7, 2026, cannot, in good conscience, be allowed to stand unchallenged.

 

 

 

Mamman Iro Kano wrote in from Gwarzo Road, Kano, Kano State.

May 7, 2026

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Opinion

The Unifier Perspective: Unifier Project Formally Contests the Evidentiary Basis of Amnesty International’s Claims Regarding the May 5 Kano Incident

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Issued by the Unifier Project, Kano State

May 7, 2026

The Unifier Project, a strategic grassroots coordination and civic engagement initiative with operational structures across all 44 Local Government Areas of Kano State, has formally and comprehensively contested the evidentiary basis, the methodological framework, and the investigative rigour of the claims recently circulated by Amnesty International regarding the unfortunate events of May 5, 2026. In a statement issued from its State Secretariat in Kano, the organisation expressed serious concern about what it characterises as a pattern of premature conclusion-drawing that privileges the velocity of digital content circulation over the deliberate, community-engaged, and forensically grounded verification processes that responsible human rights documentation demands.

The Unifier Project wishes to state unequivocally that its position in this matter is not one of reflexive institutional defensiveness or partisan political alignment. It is a principled insistence on the application of the same evidentiary standards, the same contextual rigour, and the same methodological discipline that credible human rights advocacy demands of the governments and institutions it monitors. The organisation stands firmly for truth, due process, and the protection of community peace, and it is precisely those values that compel it to challenge characterisations of the May 5 incident that, in its assessment, rely disproportionately on fragmented viral content and speculative interpretive frameworks rather than verified, independently corroborated, and contextually grounded investigative evidence.

The incident of May 5, 2026, as assessed by local security institutions, community stakeholders, and civil society organisations with direct knowledge of the affected communities, involved individuals and groups with longstanding criminal histories, territorial disputes, and inter-factional rivalries whose origins significantly predate the current administration and whose dynamics are embedded in the specific social and geographic conditions of the communities in which they operate. The Unifier Project maintains that any credible and responsible investigation of events in these communities must engage substantively with this documented local context before advancing conclusions about political motivation, institutional complicity, or state-level orchestration. To assign political causation to events whose most proximate and most documented explanation is criminal confrontation, in the absence of forensic evidence establishing direct operational linkages between political decision-making and the conduct alleged, is to substitute analytical convenience for investigative integrity.

The organisation draws particular attention to the documented policy commitments of the Kano State Government as a body of institutional evidence that any serious investigative framework is obligated to engage with rather than treat as irrelevant background. The administration has pursued a structured, programmatically defined, and resource-backed approach to addressing youth restiveness and street violence through the Safe Corridor initiative, a rehabilitative framework explicitly designed to create pathways for the social reintegration, vocational empowerment, and psychosocial recovery of vulnerable young people previously associated with organised criminality and street violence. The internal coherence of any allegation of state-sponsored violence must be evaluated against the totality of a government’s documented institutional behaviour. An administration that has invested public resources, political capital, and programmatic infrastructure in a deescalation framework of this scope cannot credibly be implicated, without compelling forensic evidence, in the simultaneous engineering of the very instability that its own institutional architecture is demonstrably designed to eliminate.

The Unifier Project also draws attention to the broader governance context within which the events of May 5, 2026, must be situated. The Kano State Government is currently implementing its most ambitious development budget in the state’s recorded history, a N1.477 trillion appropriation for 2026 with 68 percent directed at capital expenditure spanning education, infrastructure, healthcare, and social protection. It has invested over N800 million in youth empowerment programmes benefiting more than 5,300 young people across the state, disbursed over N334 million directly to 6,680 women entrepreneurs across all 44 local government areas, and deployed 2,000 trained Neighbourhood Watch operatives as a community-centred security intervention explicitly designed to reduce violent confrontations and strengthen civilian-security cooperation at the grassroots level. These are not abstract policy commitments. They are documented, verifiable, and independently assessable institutional actions that constitute the operational context within which any characterisation of this administration’s relationship to violence and instability must be rigorously evaluated.

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With respect to the methodological concerns that this incident raises for the broader practice of international human rights monitoring, the Unifier Project wishes to articulate clearly the evidentiary standards that it considers non-negotiable for any responsible investigative conclusion regarding events of this nature. These include credible forensic evidence establishing verifiable operational linkages between institutional decision-making authority and the specific conduct alleged, verified intelligence assessments from recognised and accountable security structures with direct knowledge of the affected communities, a demonstrated and documented understanding of the longstanding rivalries, territorial histories, and criminal network dynamics operating among youth groups in the specific localities concerned, and independent on-the-ground verification processes that meaningfully engage traditional authorities, community leaders, civil society organisations, and relevant law enforcement institutions before conclusions are formed and publicly disseminated. Without these foundational standards, investigative outputs risk functioning not as instruments of accountability but as mechanisms of institutional narrative-building that may, whether intentionally or otherwise, distort rather than illuminate the complex realities they purport to document.

The organisation further notes that the long-term credibility and institutional authority of global human rights bodies depend critically on the perceived consistency, proportionality, and methodological evenhandedness of their monitoring activities across different regions, different administrations, and different categories of political actor. Investigative patterns that appear to apply differential evidentiary thresholds or differential levels of scrutiny to different communities generate, among those communities, a perception of selective activism that is difficult to distinguish from politically motivated monitoring, and that ultimately undermines the culture of civic accountability that responsible human rights organisations exist to strengthen rather than selectively deploy. The Unifier Project does not raise this concern to deflect legitimate scrutiny. It raises it because the integrity of international human rights advocacy as a global public good depends on its practitioners holding themselves to the same standards of evidence, consistency, and contextual honesty that they demand of others.

Kano State is a community in active, measurable, and documented transformation. Its urban renewal programmes, governance reforms, public sector modernisation initiatives, and community stabilisation efforts represent a sustained and verifiable commitment to building a safer, more inclusive, and more prosperous society for its more than 20 million residents. The Unifier Project, with its operational presence across all 44 Local Government Areas and its direct engagement with ward-level civic structures throughout the state, is positioned to affirm, from direct community knowledge, that this transformation is real, that it is generating tangible improvements in the daily lives of ordinary citizens, and that it deserves to be assessed on the basis of its documented outcomes rather than characterised through the lens of allegations that remain forensically unsubstantiated and contextually inadequate.

The Unifier Project reaffirms its commitment to civic accountability, community protection, and the defence of due process as foundational values of democratic governance. It respectfully but firmly urges Amnesty International to engage in a more collaborative, locally informed, and forensically rigorous investigative process, one that prioritises direct engagement with community stakeholders, traditional authorities, security institutions, and civil society actors with verifiable local knowledge, before issuing globally amplified conclusions whose reputational, political, and institutional consequences for the communities concerned are significant and lasting. Allegations of the gravity advanced in this instance should carry only one weight, the weight of independently verified, contextually grounded, and forensically corroborated evidence. The Unifier Project will continue to discharge its responsibility to the people of Kano State by ensuring that the state’s story is told with the accuracy, the balance, and the contextual integrity that its communities deserve.

About the Unifier Project: The Unifier Project is a strategic grassroots coordination and civic engagement initiative committed to community mobilisation, administrative transparency, civic participation, and the strengthening of socio-political unity across Kano State. With operational structures spanning all 44 Local Government Areas and active engagement at ward and polling unit levels throughout the state, the organisation serves as a community-anchored platform for informed civic advocacy, responsible public discourse, and the protection of Kano’s social and institutional integrity.

Signed:

Unifier Project, Kano State

Media and Strategic Communications Unit

May 7, 2026

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