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Zulum is Coming-Dr Aliyu Tilde

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Professor Babagana Umara Zulum

 

People should forgive my ignorance if what I write here does not come to pass. His Excellency, Professor Babagana U. Zulum, the Governor of Borno State, the subject of this article, should overlook my wrong forecast at the political climate and not feel offended if indeed I am proven wrong. It is just an attempt to add one to another to make two. I have not spoken to him or to any politician about the 2023 presidency. My only sources on the matter are the eyes of a keen observer and the ears of a good listener. Now, come with me.

Professor Zulum dissolved his cabinet yesterday. This is quite unusual of a straight forward person whose appointments are determined more by merit than by political expediency. Is there an emergency? Yes, I think.

His ruling All Peoples Congress (APC) has been playing chess with the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) regarding the zoning of the Presidency. Our friend, Farouk Adamu Aliyu, a confidant of the President, has about a year ago told the BBC Hausa Service that their party’s choice for president will depend on the choice of the opposition—meaning, if the PDP would give a northerner its ticket, then APC will have no choice but to do so too. The North is where the bulk of the votes resides.

That calculation still holds. The APC Chairman said as much last week when he said that the ticket of the party is open to all interested aspirants. APC is not doing this at its own volition. In fact, it has some very sleezy remarks for PDP’s likelihood to field a northern candidate. In an interview published by Punch three days ago, Mr. Osita Okechukwu, a founding father of the PDP furiously accused PDP of being Machiavellian and responsible for APC’s return to the drawing board. Mr. Okechukwu:

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“They (PDP) want to capture power by all means, indeed using Machiavellian tactics. We all know that PDP is famished, thirsty and desperate to win Presidency in 2023… The PDP is aware that President Buhari will not be on the ballot in 2023, therefore, for them there is a void to fill. They must have reasoned that the Buhari’s Vote Bank would be up for grabs if they go north. The PDP’s calculation is a desperate one, and selfish to the extent that they breached their own constitution and their age-long die-hard supporters in the South, especially the South-East.”

Here, I wonder who is more desperate for power between the APC and the PDP. Mr. Okechukwu and the APC should then be more pious and politically correct than the PDP by sticking to a southern presidential ticket. But abandoning the south and looking up north, thus copycatting the PDP, leaves him and his party at no better moral position than the former. And if indeed President Buhari has a 12 million votes bank, why would not the APC just sit back, ask the him to open his vote bank and give his party the 12 million it claims is there? The truth is that pragmatic politicians like the Chairman of the party, Senator Abdullahi Adamu, knows very well that those votes are no longer there. They have been washed away by seven years of Buhari’s presidency to the extent that today you cannot find again him appearing on the poster of any northern candidate—from counsellor to president.

People like the APC National Chairman knows that losing power in Nigeria is “next in agony only to Day of Judgement,” as the Chairman of PDP in Bauchi State put it with all seriousness at the party’s stakeholders meeting way back in 2020. The APC National Chairman was himself a PDP Governor. He is only being honest. Rather than give the ticket to a southerner when the party has failed northerners by the low performance of the President and lose the election to a northern PDP candidate, he is ready to throw away the moral costume of zoning and save the party and its members a day of judgement on earth. He honestly knows that today Northerners are not safe and comfortable enough to brave a southern presidency. They are not at all in a gentleman’s mood of 1999.

In its choice of a northern candidate, we all expect the APC under Senator Adamu to be ruthlessly surgical. He knows well that former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Governors Bala Mohammed, Aminu Tambuwal and Bukola Saraki are there to break into the “12 million vote bank,” and selecting a less renowned candidate in the APC means apocalypse for the party in 2003.

Coming to the north, the APC would naturally go for someone more appealing to the electorate than just a shared regional identity. Afterall, nobody can be more northern than the Turaki of Adamawa, the Kauran Bauchi, or the Mutawallen Sokoto. APC needs someone who is both northern, undoubtedly, and who can sweep the votes as certain as tomorrow’s sunrise in its favour, someone who has the additional quality that northerners always crave for: a penchant for the common man, a bent for justice and, now, after the sad experience of Buhari, a brave performer who cannot sacrifice the north for any other region and who can arrest the unprecedented level of insecurity and underdevelopment in the region with the courage of a warrior. In short, he must be the athlete who, right from when the gun is fired, when the candidates emerge, give the PDP a good run for its money, making the elections conclusive before they even take place.

This is where Professor Zulum comes into APC presidential equation. Than him there is not an APC candidate today in the north who can foot the above bill better for the party. It is a pervasive perception in the north that he is honest, brave, courageous, competent, down to earth, no-nonsense, empathetic—the embodiment of northern perception of an iconic leader and thus to the Machiavellian APC, the perfect Tyson who, on a good day, to knockout the PDP with a bloody nose within few seconds of the match. Few northerners, if any, can bet their dime against this. I am not doubting that there are candidates that can perform as well as Zulum in the PDP. However, politics, they say, is about perception. It favours Zulum. Add to it the incumbency privileges of the CBN, INEC, Aso Villa and other uncountable resources of government.

Zulum has therefore found himself in the position of many other unintentional candidates who ruled this country before: Tafawa Balewa, 1976 Obasanjo, Shagari, 1984 Buhari, 1999 Obasanjo, Yar’adua, and Jonathan. He has not bought the form yet, even as I write this article. That is not to say that there have not been behind the scene consultations on the matter between him and the Party. There must have been some. But it was getting late as at yesterday. Hence the cabinet dissolution—I continue to think.

If our speculation on this emergency is correct, Zulum has to rush and dissolve the cabinet because there is no gubernatorial candidate of APC in his Borno State and INEC is adamant on its June 6 deadline for parties to submit the names of their candidates. Going beyond 6 May means that in case Zulum is contesting for the Presidency—which many strongly believe he will be conscripted by his party to do at the dying minute—no member of his cabinet would succeed him because they will not be able to meet the one-month statutory requirement of quitting any political appointment before the party’s primaries.

That is why as soon as I heard yesterday that he has dissolved his cabinet, I heard the sound of the last pin drop in the dark, quiet night of my supposition, 500 km from Maiduguri . Otherwise, it is not in the style of the tall, straight-forward professor to dissolve a cabinet this late in his tenure. With it done now, his cabinet members and indeed any other APC member in Borno can aspire to contest the seat of the Governor.

Zulum is coming.

Dr. Aliyu U. Tilde
6 May 2022

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Opinion

Nasir El-rufai: The Strategic Politician in Recent Times

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By Abubakar Sadiq Dauda

Malam, as he is fondly called, is a very brilliant politician with alot of success stories. He is a genius per excellence when it comes to politics. He sets his main priorities and cares less about other sub priorities that may not yield to any serious positive impact. That simple act of setting his main target and work tirelessly to ensure that he delivers on the mandate makes him an outstanding politician.

In 2013, he was the brain behind the formation of APC. He committed his entire time and energy to bring Tinubu, Buhari and Atiku into thesame fold. The goal then was to defeat the ruling party, PDP.

Initially, he refused to compromise on his main target by not seeking for any elective position, which he knows may affect the chances of achieving his main priority. As fate will swing into his favour, former President Muhammadu Buhari, who was the major contender in the opposition as it was then, requested that El-rufai must contest for Kaduna governorship position in 2015. The rest is now history.

Fast-forward to 2023, El-rufai showed his zealousness and potentials by going for the bigger ‘fish’ again. His main objective was to make sure Tinubu (who hail from the South) succeeds Buhari, and APC should continue to take charge of the affairs of Kaduna state. He chose not to vie for any office in other for him to commit his time, effort and resources to achieve his main objective. The rest as they say is now history.

Again, today being the 10th of March, 2025, a well known discourse (judging by strategic meetings held recently) was finalized, formalized and brought into the public sphere by thesame figure, Nasir El-Rufai. The theme which is well known in many quarters is to make sure that the Government of the day at both national and at state level (emphasis on Kaduna) lost the election that will graciously take place in 2027.

Malam is fully committed to attain thesame success he recorded particularly in 2015 and 2023. In other for Malam to be successful, he will remain steadfast, focused and committed in achieving his main objective (judging by his past precedence).

Unlike many politicians and political actors, Malam believes in personal sacrifices to ensure that he gets the job done. He is able to outline is main priorities and commit all he has to attain the greater success he aspire, not minding whose ox is gored.

His fearlessness, foresight, brilliance, hard-work has overtime proves beyond doubt that he is indeed a strategic politician who should not be taken in for a ride.

Sadiq is a political analyst, writes from Kano and can be reached via sadiqdauda55@gmail.com

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Opinion

Ganduje Decorates Barau, Political General

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From Abba Anwar

Thrilled by the consistent effort of the Deputy Senate President, Barau I Jibrin, CFR, in making the All Progressives Congress (APC) waxing stronger across Nigeria, the National Chairman of APC, His Excellency (Dr) Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, CON, decorates the DSP with a title of Political General.

As the hall of the event to receive members of the Coalition of Atiku Abubakar Support Groups, from 19 Northern states, into the fold of the ruling APC, roared with standing ovation, the National Chairman continued, “Distinguished Barau I. Jibrin’s capacity is beyond his constituency, Kano North or Kano State.”

Silencing all hues and cries about Barau’s role in accepting members of other parties at the local level, Ganduje reminded that, “Initially people thought Distinguished Barau I. Jibrin, representing Kano North Senatorial District, is only working in Kano for receiving members of other political parties to APC in Kano.

But you can see that, he is going beyond that. He is liberating those people especially those committed to democracy, convincing them to join APC, not only from Kano or from North, but from other parts of the country.”

He commended that,” Senator Barau is a real political General.”

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To further show his inner most appreciation of the Deputy Senate President’s effort in strengthening the party from many fronts, Ganduje concurred that,”… after the Fasting period all members of this Coalition will be gathered in Abuja under the leadership of Distinguished Senator Barau Jibrin, so that we invite Mr President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the Vice President, Senate President and Right Honorable Speaker, House of Representatives, to formally receive all your members.

In order to register the death and the collapse of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in Nigeria. Not only in the Northern part of the country.”

The National Chairman of APC was at the event with all members of the National Working Committee of the party. What this indicates is, how important and relevant is Barau’s effort in molding party structures and brilliant engagement in the nation’s political experiment.

Recent cemented relationship between Ganduje and Barau signals many things for the party and individuals. Alignment and realignment, among other political strategies, are a condition that scares APC opponents, real and perceived, in Kano, North and the country as a whole.

The way I see it, is this, as Barau started with local push, in accepting local politicians, entertainers and political novices, in some circumstances, his recent engagement with Coalition of Atiku Support Groups, speaks volume in understanding how deep he has gone in the national scheme of things of the ruling APC. He is more or less, becoming a pillar. Particularly with the endorsement of the National Chairman.

What Barau is up to, is subject to many interpretations. Depending on the side of the prism one is standing. But one fundamental item in his activities is this, that, he is making the party to be more visible, more vibrant, more relevant and stronger in multi-faceted manifestations. Left to me, I can say Barau is not too much concerned about local politics.

On his part, DSP appreciated that, since Ganduje became the National Chairman of APC, “… since he came in we did not lose any election. The party is waxing stronger day in day out. He has shown that he is capable. So we are proud of you Mr Chairman Sir.”

Adding that, “We thank you for making Kano state proud we thank you for making North West proud. And we thank you for making Nigeria proud. His Excellency Dr Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, CON, proves to all that he is a detribalised national leader.”

Anwar, was Chief Press Secretary to the former Governor of Kano State, Dr Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, CON, and can be reached at fatimanbaba1@gmail.com

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Opinion

Barau’s Kano Project : Kwankwasiyya, Kannywood, TikTok Deserters

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By Abba Anwar

Whether or not those joining All Progressives Congress (APC) in Kano state, through Deputy Senate President, Barau Jibrin CFR, are doing that with genuine mind and valid reason, the fact remains, that, political opposition and politicking are becoming lively day in day out, in the state.

The recent hues and cries shaping party cross carpeting, with particular reference to the DSP’s engagement with Kwankwasiyya followers, Kannywood elements and some identified TikTokers is on increase in the state. Both freedom of expression and freedom of choice at play.

Believe it or not, one cannot separate Barau and APC in this political engagement. Those changing party membership under Barau, are changing to APC ultimately, not to Barau. Because the institution is the party, APC, not Barau.

It is clear to all that, Barau is positioning himself against 2027 Kano Project. That in itself isn’t a political sin. If his target is Kano, as a political space, his feats achieved within a specified period of time, go beyond Kano. Not to talk of his primary constituency, Kano North Senatorial District.

Let me say this, before now, I faulted Barau’s strategy for welcoming political opponents, Kwankwasiyya followers especially. Arguing that, what was the wisdom behind welcoming someone today, who could reverse back to where he exited, in few days time

I later realized that, as some Kwankwasiyya elements use Barau as an entry point, it was revealed openly to the Deputy Senate President, that, some of those coming to APC through him, were planted as moles for the opposition. With this, he pays back to them, using “repentant elements,” as paid agents within the opposition circle.

Reason for one-touch strategy, as I blamed him the other time. (laughter).

So it is now not very clear whether those making u-turn after taking “oath” before Barau, are genuinely going back to where they started, Kwankwasiyya, in this context. The same thing applies to Kannywood elements, artistes and TikTokers.

But what interests onlookers most, is his indifferent behavior about all the hues and cries. Which, to me, it appears like he is acting a particular script by accepting opposition elements into APC. Whose script and from where? Such questions remain unanswered.

I am envisaging that some big shots are making their wave to Barau, as an entry point. This time around, it is not the issue of Kannywood actors /actress, or artistes or other similar individuals. People of greater substance and relevance by all political standard. Ours is to wait and see.

But let me assure my readers that, when that situation comes its natural way, more storm will overwhelm APC opponents in Kano, and elsewhere by extension. So who is calling the shot?

Some people argue that, among all those with positions from Kano state, either elected or appointed, with the exception of the National Chairman of All Progressives Congress (APC) Dr Abdullahi Umar Ganduje CON, – who, by constitutional provision, cannot vie for Kano governorship position again – Barau stands better chance.

As an addendum also, you cannot compare Barau with the current governor of Kano State, Alhaji Abba Kabir Yusuf, in terms of productivity, creative mind, political experience, exposure, charisma, intellectual sagacity, public presentation, public relations, domineering posture, independent mind and action, enhanced interpretation of political engagement and unwavering loyalty and support to party ideals and manifesto.

Without fear of mincing words, I can say, Barau can make a good governor than the current governor of our dear state, Yusuf. I am just being scientific. Just compare their achievements so far in the state. Though, Barau coming from the legislative arm, but his interventions, real interventions, to the lives of ordinary Kano man, are unmatched. Compared to that of the governor. Yes the governor.

But the way I see it, is this, if achievements are the yardstick for measuring one’s political chances, to me, Barau’s relevance goes beyond Kano, or merely his primary constituency, Kano North. I stand to be corrected. If one’s achieved feats are indices, I bet my position.

To me, if Kwankwasiyya’s cross carpeting, through the entry point, Barau, is reversible, as some of them provided that explanation, by their action, there is nothing extraordinary when Kannywood people alongside TikTokers, follow suit.

Take it or leave it, Barau’s visibility in Kano political space, is something not to be taken for granted. The ploy upon ploy smuggle into the threshold of political engagement in the state, are enough reasons to explain to you that, Barau is not a political dummy. Neither an inexperienced political flagship. Someone with the highest position in the National Assembly, from North West,with the exception of Kaduna, that produces Speaker of the House of Representatives.

Anwar, was Chief Press Secretary to the former Governor of Kano State, Dr Abdullahi Umar Ganduje CON and can be reached at fatimanbaba1@gmail.com

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