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2023: The Fuss About Regions- Adetayo Balogun

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By Adetayo Balogun

 

 

It’s just more than 500 days to the 2023 Presidential election, and the permutations and possible combinations have started as to who Nigerians should vote. More loudly, discussions about the region to produce the next President has been more apparent and considered more necessary.

 

The Muhammadu Buhari administration has left Nigerians with mixed reactions. If feelers from the populace are anything to go by, it has left the people with more bitter pills to swallow. The excitement that followed the President’s candidacy in 2015 has since been extinguished with excruciating policies, a struggling economy and a shaky security architecture, all placing Nigeria in arguably its worst state yet.

 

Many argue that the current situation was always on the horizon, but Nigerians had little or no choice to make when they voted for Buhari in 2015. The country was in dire straits, and the next best option was always the messiah, hence the heavy support.

 

Four years later, Nigerians had a choice to make again in 2019, and it was former Vice President Atiku Abubakar against the incumbent, Buhari. Despite the noise about the nation’s state and the need for a positive turnaround, Nigerians elected Buhari again, winning mainly in the North and losing popularity in the South. In the 2019 election, the President garnered 44% and 41.7% of the total votes in the North-West and North-East, respectively, but only managed more than 20% in every geopolitical zone in the South except the South West.

 

The belief in the country is that the north voted Buhari in power again, and if left to the South, it’d have been another man at the helm of affairs.

 

In searching for the next President, there’s a debated preference for a Southerner to emerge; however, a section of the populace and those in the political space have clamoured for a united approach to the determination of the next President.

 

Katch Ononuju, the Director-General of the Heritage Centre, in an interview on News Central Television, argued that there’s no politician of the northern extract that can bring Nigerians together again. He said many Nigerians would prefer to see a Southerner become President, as the current administration has shown a nepotistic obsession with the North, which may affect the chances of any Presidential candidate from the region.

 

Political Analyst and the Spokesperson of the Presidential candidate of the PDP in the 2019 election, Segun Showunmi, argues that Nigeria’s next President should be any politician who has a known capacity to lead, regardless of the region he comes from. He said there is a debatable ground for different geopolitical zones to ask for their chance to produce the country’s next President.

 

Of all Nigeria’s geopolitical zones, the North West, which has the country’s highest population, has the state with the highest number of Presidents in Katsina. Late former President Umar Musa Yar’adua and incumbent Buhari are both from the state. Olu Segun Obasanjo from Ogun State and Goodluck Ebele Jonathan from Bayelsa State are known Southerners and have been Nigerian Presidents.

 

Despite this, there’s a belief that the emergence of Jonathan was more accidental than planned. If not for the painful and unfortunate demise of Yar’Adua, the South may never have had a shot at the Presidency beyond Obasanjo’s administration. This, many believe is arguable, but if considered critically and deeply enough, it may give pointers to where the nation stands.

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Goodluck Jonathan’s Emergence – A Southern Argument

 

 

In 2010, after the death of Yar’Adua, some powerful politicians openly stated their preference for a Northern replacement for Yar’Adua, with they argue that a Southerner could not become President again after Obasanjo. The constitution finally prevailed when Jonathan was sworn in as President.

 

The 2011 election would steer a new round of politicking and the powers favoured the former Bayelsa State Governor to finish what he’d started. This, to the Northern core enthusiasts, was a deviation from the expected arrangement. Jonathan’s emergence in 2011 wasn’t without contest, as he defeated Buhari, then of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) in that election. The Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) had Nuhu Ribadu as its Presidential candidate, and the PDP presented Atiku as its flag-bearer. This made Jonathan the strongest Southerner on the ballot, and he emerged.

Federal Govt Tasks State Governments on National Policy On Medical Oxygen

In 2015, the political framework and skeleton that ensured his victory four years earlier had been to a more powerful coalition. The All Progressives Congress and the rest, they say, is history. Jonathan, at the time, had only spent four years of his administration and six in total. More than the arrangement, he was a product of an accidental necessity that left the powers that be with little choice.

 

 

North, South… Does It Matter Where?

 

 

Since 1999, Nigeria has conducted six Presidential elections, and there has been an equitable distribution of regional arrangements, with the North and South producing Presidents two times.

 

This leaves the 2023 regional debate very open to voters’ choices more than political parties’ wishes. The ruling party and the main opposition are yet to state their positions on zoning in clear terms. Although some leading members of both parties have given a hint of their preference and the coming months are expected to lay open more arguments and the proper position of these parties.

 

Zoning, many politicians argue, is not engrained in their party’s constitutions and, therefore, leaves the field open to any interested candidate.

 

For strategy and feasting on the current mood in the country, political analysts have predicted that the leading parties are expected to cede their respective candidacies to the south. This, however, will also depend on the strength and popularity of the individuals ready to take on the mantle of leadership.

 

Some schools of thought also say that some political distributions are merely geographical and hold no essence in the depth of the recognition of regional identity. The North-Central feels hard done by the current administration, yet the tag “north” may stand a chance of ruining its political perception in the south. These arguments, analysts have advised, must be ironed out to produce the best candidate.

 

 

A Matter of “Who”

 

Many Nigerians can be excellent leaders, but not many can handle a complex country like Nigeria. The excruciating situation of Nigeria today begs for a leader with substance.

 

Former Military President Ibrahim Babangida suggests that the next President should be a man not above his 60s and with a good economic sense and coverage of the country. Automatically, this proves he’s looking beyond the possible candidacy of Atiku Abubakar or Bola Ahmed Tinubu; two experienced politicians touted to go head-to-head in 2023.

 

Chima Nnaji, a legal practitioner, said that Nigeria needs “an economic guru and a financial mechanic” to address the dwindling economy and bring the country back to its base. This, he identifies as the root of the troubles in the country.

 

The qualities listed above can be seen in Southern and Northern Nigerians. Still, analysts argue that a combination of possibilities, expected qualities and political arguments places a Southerner in better stead for the Presidency in 2023.

 

How strong that argument is and what Nigerians will decide is only a question of days to come.

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A Baseless Outburst: Kwankwaso’s Statement Falls Flat

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The Northern Youths Merger Group APC has distanced itself from the recent statement made by Engineer Dr. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, the former Governor of Kano State and leader of the Kwankwasiyya movement, criticizing President Ahmad Bola Tinubu’s handling of the security situation in the country.

In a press release signed by the National Coordinator of the group, Hon. Musa Mujahid Zaitawa, the group expressed its disappointment and condemnation of Kwankwaso’s statement, describing it as “baseless” and “shameful”. Zaitawa pointed out that Kwankwaso has a history of opposing the government without justification, citing his previous criticisms of former President Goodluck Jonathan and his current stance against the APC government.

The group questioned Kwankwaso’s credibility, given his roles as a former Minister of Defence, Governor, and Senator, and wondered why he would make such statements at a time when the President is working tirelessly to address the security challenges facing the country. Zaitawa noted that Kwankwaso’s comments were not only unhelpful but also undermined the efforts of the government to ensure peace and stability in the country.

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The statement further highlighted the erosion of support for Kwankwaso among his former associates, including Senator Kawu Sumaila, members of the National Assembly, and other prominent individuals who have abandoned his camp.

The Northern Youths Merger Group APC urged Kwankwaso to desist from making statements that could be perceived as inciting or divisive, and instead, encouraged him to support the government’s efforts to address the country’s challenges. The group emphasized that the Tinubu administration is committed to ensuring security and development in the country and will not be deterred by baseless criticisms.
The Arewa Youths Mager group said they have uncovered a conspiracy by Kwankwaso to use the Kano State Government to politicize the security situation in the state by leveling baseless allegations against former Governor Abdullahi Umar Ganduje and Deputy Senate President Barau Jibrin that they were involved in it, to show that the government of Asiwaju Ahmad Tinubu failed to address the insecurity problem for people of Kano when it comes to the 2027 campaign to turn their backs on the APC.

NYMG warned Kwankwaso to refrain from making statements that could provoke the youth to do illegal things that could cause discord and instability among the people’s

The group also commended President Tinubu’s efforts to address the security situation in the country, including the appointment of a new Minister of Defence and the allocation of funds to support farmers in the North.

 

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Middle Belt or Bible Belt of Nigeria? By Aminu Ayama

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Let me begin with full disclosure: I am a Muslim and proudly Hausa-Fulani — a product of both tribes, raised with the blended cultures of me begin with full disclosure: I am a Muslim and proudly Hausa-Fulani — a product of both tribes, raised with the blended cultures North-West. If that alone irritates you, simply waka pass, because what follows will be blunt, factual, and completely unapologetic.

First, let us be clear: there is no such thing as a “Middle Belt region” in Nigeria. Not geographically, not politically, not constitutionally. What exists are six geo-political zones, with the North Central being just one of them.

The growing agitation for what I prefer to call the “Bible Belt”—often disguised as “Middle Belt”—is driven largely by neo-Christian maximalists, especially from Plateau State. And Plateau, let us not pretend, has earned an unfortunate reputation as one of the most hostile places for Muslims to live, transit, or thrive. Many documented incidents show entrenched Islamophobic violence, partisan state actions, and security responses that frequently tilt against Muslims whenever there are communal clashes.

But the proponents of this so-called Middle Belt never call it what it truly is: a Christian-only political sanctuary. Even within the North Central, Christians are not the majority. Only Benue and Plateau have overwhelming Christian populations. In Kogi, Niger, Kwara, and Nasarawa, Muslims form the majority—and each of those states is governed by Muslims.

So how does a minority hope to dominate the majority? How can the tail wag the dog?

This agenda is rooted in a deep-seated hostility toward Muslims, weaponised through disinformation, propaganda, and violence. And beyond the politics, the demands are not only unrealistic—they border on the absurd.

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The dream of a cross-regional Christian confederacy stretching across Nigeria would require forcefully merging Christian pockets in the North Central, North East, and North West—communities that share almost no borders—with one another. Over 90% of the Christian minority communities they list are not even geographically contiguous with Plateau or Benue. The only connected Christian-majority areas are Plateau, Benue, and parts of Southern Kaduna.

To create this so-called Bible Belt would require mass displacement of millions of indigenous Muslims living in these territories. It would produce a Bantu-like, Southern Sudan-type enclave in the heart of a predominantly Muslim region.

We know how South Sudan turned out. Years after global Christian activists—and even Hollywood celebrities like George Clooney—pushed the “Christian genocide” narrative to break it away from Sudan, the new country descended almost immediately into ethnic civil war among people who share the same faith. The activists have since moved on. The people remain with the suffering.

This is precisely the kind of tragedy Nigeria risks if it entertains such a divisive fantasy.

Creating a religious enclave in Northern Nigeria is possible only through civil war, mass ethnic cleansing, and forceful land seizure. No legislative process can achieve it; it would require bullets, not ballots.

Even more unrealistic is the attempt to annex Christian-minority areas of Southern Borno, Southern Yobe, Southern Gombe, Southern Adamawa, Southern Bauchi, and parts of Taraba into this imaginary Bible Belt. Except for Taraba, all these states are Muslim-majority and governed by Muslims.

The Bible Belt crusaders have even stretched their ambitions to the far North-West, claiming Christian communities like Zuru in Kebbi and Southern Kaduna, and naming random Christian minority pockets across Katsina, Zamfara, Jigawa, and Kano as part of their utopian region.

Let us be honest: how does this happen without displacing millions of Muslims?
How do you build a Christian-only belt across a region dominated by Muslims without violence?
How do you redraw boundaries across the North without war?

The truth is simple. This agenda mirrors the same formula used in the Middle East—forceful displacement, land acquisition, and demographic engineering. Nothing short of massive foreign-backed militarisation could make it remotely possible.

And even then, like South Sudan, such a creation would become a landlocked, unstable, ethnically fragmented territory—a permanent war zone.

Nigeria must never walk this path.

The so-called Middle Belt agitation is not about geography or justice. It is about identity politics and fear disguised as self-determination. It is a project built on emotion, not logic. On ethnic resentment, not fairness. On religious exceptionalism, not coexistence.

I welcome any factual challenge to the points made here. Let the arguments come—but let them be grounded in truth, not propaganda.

Aminu Ayama
@aaa

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Kano APC’s Crisis and Senator Barau’s Masterclass in Political Maturity

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Senator Barau

​By Ado Isa Jagaba

​The persistent turmoil within the Kano State Chapter of the All Progressives Congress (APC) has, once again, starkly exposed the deep-seated faultlines dividing the party. Yet, amidst this chaos, a quieter but far more instructive story is unfolding—the dignified restrain and profound political maturity demonstrated by the Deputy Senate President, Senator Barau I. Jibrin, CFR, in the face of sustained internal betrayal.

​In 2021, during the crucial APC State Congress, Senator Barau, then a serving Senator and Chairman of the powerful Senate Committee on Appropriations, was systematically denied any meaningful influence. He was refused even an ex-officio slot at the ward, local-government, and state levels. Furthermore, his known allies were barred from serving as supervisory councillors, political advisers, or special assistants, with any identified supporter being ruthlessly sidelined.

​However, instead of engaging in public retaliation or fueling the internal discord, he executed a masterclass in political focus. He kept his attention strictly on delivering concrete development projects, roads, boreholes, schools, and scholarships. Often extending these dividends of democracy far beyond his Kano North Senatorial constituency.

​A Strategy of Silent Service

​His silence in the face of humiliation was not weakness; it was a strategic choice. This political maturity allowed him to rise above the petty fray and continued his unwavering service to the people. When the same elements later attempted to block his Senatorial ticket, national party elders were compelled to intervene. Barau’s perseverance ultimately paid off. He not only overwhelmingly retained his Senate seat, but was subsequently elevated to the position of Deputy President of the Senate, the fifth highest political office in the country.

​Why Barau’s Conduct is the APC’s Current Lesson

​Barau’s political trajectory offers clear, actionable lessons for the crisis-ridden party.

​Service Over Spite

Despite being denied the gubernatorial ticket and facing attempts to sabotage his Senatorial nomination, the Senator put the party first. He extensively financed the Gawuna/Garo gubernatorial campaign in 2023, played a pivotal role in the APC sweeping five of the six House of Representatives seats in his zone, and generously funded crucial legal battles all the way to the Supreme Court.

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​Empowering the Grassroots

Barau has used his federal influence to empower party faithful, securing over 2,500 APC members position of Senior Legislative Aides, Special Adviser roles and influencing numerous federal appointments. This level of patronage and direct welfare for party members is widely regarded as unmatched in Kano’s recent political history. He has also donated hundreds of vehicles and motorcycles to party leadership at all levels.

​A Figure of Unification

The widespread grassroots call for Barau to run for Governor is not accidental. It is a direct recognition of his proven ability to bridge political divides, deliver tangible results, and provide the much-needed cohesion to a fractured party structure.

​The Desperation of the Cabal

​The same cabal that once exploited the gentlemanly nature of our former leader, Baba Ganduje, to humiliate Senator Barau now finds itself increasingly restless and confused. These elements, having benefited from the system, while neglecting the party’s welfare structure, constantly envy the goodwill and resources Senator Barau has directed towards the APC faithfuls.

​Today, they are desperately oiling fabricated and baseless publications aimed at tarnishing his image and sowing division, particularly by misrepresenting his independent political activities as a direct attack on Baba Ganduje’s personality. They are the same people who, having lost their source of leverage, now resort to hiding behind the former governor, seeking continuous protection to the detriment of the party’s survival as a viable opposition force in Kano.

​Unaware that the Senator is far ahead in strategy and political manoeuvring. Their paid “data boys” propagate falsehoods, trying to portray the powerful Senator as a battle-ready opponent of Ganduje’s political empire. However, their efforts fail daily. The resources they once enjoyed are no longer flowing. They cannot match the abundant political capital and widespread support at the disposal of the Deputy Senate President. A serious political Tsunami is being witnessed as many responsible and loyal party members desert their camp, which was built on a shaky foundation of self-interest rather than genuine party welfare.

​The Clear Lesson

​While critics may correctly argue that internal disagreements are inevitable and that the party should pursue reconciliation, others contend that Barau’s track record of quiet, effective service and broad support makes him the natural candidate to restore cohesion and secure future victories.
​Whatever the political outcome, the lesson for the Kano APC is clear: political maturity, as exemplified and typified by Senator, can transform humiliation into a platform for greater influence and power. The party must acknowledge that the same hands that built critical infrastructure and funded crucial legal battles are now being asked to lead the state.
​As many Kano APC stalwarts succinctly put it, “If you want a governor who can turn the tide of the state, look to the man who turned silence into service.”

Lajawa is a Political Analyst, from Warawa Local Government, Kano State
December 7, 2025
Email: adoisajagaban@gmail.com

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