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2023: The Fuss About Regions- Adetayo Balogun

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Nigeria's Map

 

 

 

By Adetayo Balogun

 

 

It’s just more than 500 days to the 2023 Presidential election, and the permutations and possible combinations have started as to who Nigerians should vote. More loudly, discussions about the region to produce the next President has been more apparent and considered more necessary.

 

The Muhammadu Buhari administration has left Nigerians with mixed reactions. If feelers from the populace are anything to go by, it has left the people with more bitter pills to swallow. The excitement that followed the President’s candidacy in 2015 has since been extinguished with excruciating policies, a struggling economy and a shaky security architecture, all placing Nigeria in arguably its worst state yet.

 

Many argue that the current situation was always on the horizon, but Nigerians had little or no choice to make when they voted for Buhari in 2015. The country was in dire straits, and the next best option was always the messiah, hence the heavy support.

 

Four years later, Nigerians had a choice to make again in 2019, and it was former Vice President Atiku Abubakar against the incumbent, Buhari. Despite the noise about the nation’s state and the need for a positive turnaround, Nigerians elected Buhari again, winning mainly in the North and losing popularity in the South. In the 2019 election, the President garnered 44% and 41.7% of the total votes in the North-West and North-East, respectively, but only managed more than 20% in every geopolitical zone in the South except the South West.

 

The belief in the country is that the north voted Buhari in power again, and if left to the South, it’d have been another man at the helm of affairs.

 

In searching for the next President, there’s a debated preference for a Southerner to emerge; however, a section of the populace and those in the political space have clamoured for a united approach to the determination of the next President.

 

Katch Ononuju, the Director-General of the Heritage Centre, in an interview on News Central Television, argued that there’s no politician of the northern extract that can bring Nigerians together again. He said many Nigerians would prefer to see a Southerner become President, as the current administration has shown a nepotistic obsession with the North, which may affect the chances of any Presidential candidate from the region.

 

Political Analyst and the Spokesperson of the Presidential candidate of the PDP in the 2019 election, Segun Showunmi, argues that Nigeria’s next President should be any politician who has a known capacity to lead, regardless of the region he comes from. He said there is a debatable ground for different geopolitical zones to ask for their chance to produce the country’s next President.

 

Of all Nigeria’s geopolitical zones, the North West, which has the country’s highest population, has the state with the highest number of Presidents in Katsina. Late former President Umar Musa Yar’adua and incumbent Buhari are both from the state. Olu Segun Obasanjo from Ogun State and Goodluck Ebele Jonathan from Bayelsa State are known Southerners and have been Nigerian Presidents.

 

Despite this, there’s a belief that the emergence of Jonathan was more accidental than planned. If not for the painful and unfortunate demise of Yar’Adua, the South may never have had a shot at the Presidency beyond Obasanjo’s administration. This, many believe is arguable, but if considered critically and deeply enough, it may give pointers to where the nation stands.

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Goodluck Jonathan’s Emergence – A Southern Argument

 

 

In 2010, after the death of Yar’Adua, some powerful politicians openly stated their preference for a Northern replacement for Yar’Adua, with they argue that a Southerner could not become President again after Obasanjo. The constitution finally prevailed when Jonathan was sworn in as President.

 

The 2011 election would steer a new round of politicking and the powers favoured the former Bayelsa State Governor to finish what he’d started. This, to the Northern core enthusiasts, was a deviation from the expected arrangement. Jonathan’s emergence in 2011 wasn’t without contest, as he defeated Buhari, then of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) in that election. The Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) had Nuhu Ribadu as its Presidential candidate, and the PDP presented Atiku as its flag-bearer. This made Jonathan the strongest Southerner on the ballot, and he emerged.

Federal Govt Tasks State Governments on National Policy On Medical Oxygen

In 2015, the political framework and skeleton that ensured his victory four years earlier had been to a more powerful coalition. The All Progressives Congress and the rest, they say, is history. Jonathan, at the time, had only spent four years of his administration and six in total. More than the arrangement, he was a product of an accidental necessity that left the powers that be with little choice.

 

 

North, South… Does It Matter Where?

 

 

Since 1999, Nigeria has conducted six Presidential elections, and there has been an equitable distribution of regional arrangements, with the North and South producing Presidents two times.

 

This leaves the 2023 regional debate very open to voters’ choices more than political parties’ wishes. The ruling party and the main opposition are yet to state their positions on zoning in clear terms. Although some leading members of both parties have given a hint of their preference and the coming months are expected to lay open more arguments and the proper position of these parties.

 

Zoning, many politicians argue, is not engrained in their party’s constitutions and, therefore, leaves the field open to any interested candidate.

 

For strategy and feasting on the current mood in the country, political analysts have predicted that the leading parties are expected to cede their respective candidacies to the south. This, however, will also depend on the strength and popularity of the individuals ready to take on the mantle of leadership.

 

Some schools of thought also say that some political distributions are merely geographical and hold no essence in the depth of the recognition of regional identity. The North-Central feels hard done by the current administration, yet the tag “north” may stand a chance of ruining its political perception in the south. These arguments, analysts have advised, must be ironed out to produce the best candidate.

 

 

A Matter of “Who”

 

Many Nigerians can be excellent leaders, but not many can handle a complex country like Nigeria. The excruciating situation of Nigeria today begs for a leader with substance.

 

Former Military President Ibrahim Babangida suggests that the next President should be a man not above his 60s and with a good economic sense and coverage of the country. Automatically, this proves he’s looking beyond the possible candidacy of Atiku Abubakar or Bola Ahmed Tinubu; two experienced politicians touted to go head-to-head in 2023.

 

Chima Nnaji, a legal practitioner, said that Nigeria needs “an economic guru and a financial mechanic” to address the dwindling economy and bring the country back to its base. This, he identifies as the root of the troubles in the country.

 

The qualities listed above can be seen in Southern and Northern Nigerians. Still, analysts argue that a combination of possibilities, expected qualities and political arguments places a Southerner in better stead for the Presidency in 2023.

 

How strong that argument is and what Nigerians will decide is only a question of days to come.

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If I Were Ganduje-Prince Daniel Aboki

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If I were His Excellency, Dr Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, I would know when to walk away not in defeat, but with dignity.

If I had a long and storied political career if I had tasted power at nearly every level of governance I would know that there comes a time to let go. If my journey had begun in the late 1980s, holding senior administrative roles in Abuja during the capital’s transition phase including leading the Abuja Municipal Area Council (AMAC) giving me early exposure at the federal level, I would remember the value of legacy.

If, in the 1990s, I had served as Commissioner for Works, Housing and Transport in Kano State under a military administration shaping public infrastructure and policy I would understand what it means to build, not just to hold office.

If, following Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, I had served as Deputy Governor of Kano State under Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso during his first term (1999–2003), and again from 2011 to 2015 during his second tenure, I would recognise the weight of public trust. If, in between, I had served as Executive Secretary of the Lake Chad Basin Commission engaging in international cooperation across Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon and Niger I would appreciate the significance of diplomacy and regional impact.

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If I had been elected Governor of Kano State in 2015 and re-elected in 2019 serving two full terms until 2023 I would know what it means to govern one of the most politically charged states in Nigeria. And if, most recently, I had risen to become National Chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC) the ruling party at the centre I would understand that I had reached the very summit of political influence in the country.

So, if I were Ganduje, after stepping down or being shoved aside from that powerful party chairmanship, I would walk away. I would not stoop so low as to allow myself to be inaugurated or more accurately, paraded by Festus Keyamo as Chairman of the Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria (FAAN). Not after all I had achieved. Not for a role that adds nothing to my stature and only makes headlines for the wrong reasons.

I would not cling to power for power’s sake. At 75, I would not accept tokenism dressed as relevance. I would not downgrade my legacy just to remain in the room.

If I were Ganduje, I would understand that true statesmanship is knowing when to sit back, reflect, and let history take its course. I would invest in mentoring the next generation, building ideas, documenting my journey not scrambling for appointments that offer no real authority, only photo ops and protocol. I wouldn’t be lobbying for roles meant for my children or grandchildren.

I would walk away with grace with my name still intact.

But I am not Ganduje.

Ordinary citizen,
Prince Daniel

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Kwankwaso: The Northern Titan Tinubu Needs for 2027-Lamara Garba

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Head Of Kwankwasiyya Movement and former Governor of Kano,Engineer Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso

 

By: Lamara Garba Azare

In the vast theatre of Nigerian politics, where loyalties shift like desert winds and alliances are often built on the fragile sands of expediency, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso remains a paradoxical figure grounded yet mobile, underestimated yet ever-looming, regional yet national. His name echoes from the narrow alleys of Kano to the polished corridors of Abuja. And in the current recalibration of the political landscape, his relevance is not just intact it is ascending.

As 2027 casts its early shadow on the horizon, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu must begin to examine not only who stands beside him today, but who can help him conquer tomorrow. Among all the northern actors, one name rings with both history and hope: Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso engineer, former governor, former minister, presidential contender, and above all, a man of the people.

Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso’s political journey began long before the return to civilian rule in 1999. He was first elected into the Federal House of Representatives in 1992 under the platform of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), during the short-lived Third Republic. Representing the Madobi Federal Constituency, he quickly rose to prominence and was elected Deputy Speaker of the House a rare feat for a first-time legislator and a reflection of his charisma, competence, and political acumen even at a young age. Though the republic was cut short by the military, Kwankwaso’s early emergence laid the foundation for what would become a long, impactful political career spanning over three decades.

Kwankwaso vs. Ganduje: A Tale of Unequal Titans

The recent ouster of Dr. Abdullahi Umar Ganduje as APC National Chairman has stripped the ruling party of a man who was less a unifying figure and more a lightning rod for controversy. In truth, Ganduje’s political shadow was always smaller than his ambition. Since 2015, when he inherited Kano’s leadership from his former mentor, Ganduje spent more time fighting ghosts than building legacy.
In both the 2019 and 2023 elections, Ganduje’s electoral strength was tested and found wanting. In 2019, he scraped through a victory marred by violence and a controversial rerun. By 2023, he had lost the state completely to Kwankwaso’s New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP). It was a stunning reversal. The man he had once served as deputy and later sought to diminish had not only returned, but reclaimed Kano’s soul.

This contrast cannot be overstated. Where Ganduje represented self-preservation, Kwankwaso represents a movement. Where Ganduje lacked charisma and moral clarity, Kwankwaso commanded loyalty through ideas, sacrifice, and an unbroken connection to the grassroots.
The red cap of Kwankwasiyya is not just cloth; it is a statement of ideology, a badge of discipline, and a symbol of service.

And now, with Ganduje’s shadow gone, the political space is slowly being recalibrated. Even among top APC power brokers, quiet conversations are beginning to emerge conversations that whisper one name, not in opposition, but in strategic admiration: Kwankwaso.

A Northern Giant in the National Equation
Since 1999, no political personality in Northern Nigeria has maintained relevance, respect, and regional command like Kwankwaso. From the days of the Fourth Republic, where he served as Governor under the PDP, to his time as Minister of Defence and later as a senator, Kwankwaso has always been a force unto himself untamed, unbought, and unbowed.
When he returned to the PDP in 2018, he was met not with a red carpet but with resistance. The fight over the Northwest Zonal Chairmanship particularly the betrayal by Senator Bello Hayatu Gwarzo and Governor Aminu Tambuwal—was a painful reminder that in Nigerian politics, past glory is no shield from present conspiracies.

Yet from those ashes, Kwankwaso rose again this time on his own terms. The NNPP, a party once dismissed as fringe, became his new political cathedral. And in 2023, it delivered a seismic political upset, reclaiming Kano and sending shockwaves through the APC and PDP alike.

Tinubu and Kwankwaso: Twin Architects of Modern Nigerian Politics

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There is a poetic symmetry between Tinubu and Kwankwaso, though they emerged from different regions. Both are engineers Tinubu, a political one; Kwankwaso, a literal one. Both began their political ascent in 1999. Both shaped their regions with a mix of discipline, policy, and populist appeal. Both have been godfathers and gladiators, builders and reformers, thinkers and fighters.

In the South-West, Tinubu built Lagos into a political stronghold, produced governors, and designed strategies that eventually toppled a 16-year-old PDP rule. In the North, Kwankwaso built a grassroots machine so formidable that no governor after him has been able to ignore it not even his archrival Ganduje, whose administration was haunted by Kwankwaso’s legacy.

In a country still divided by ethnic fault lines and regional calculations, these two men represent the possibility of a fusion: one that cuts across the Niger, speaks to the heart of the average Nigerian, and brings political pragmatism back into fashion.

There is a growing feeling among some political elders that it may be time these two architects sit on the same drawing board. For those close to the corridors of power, making this happen will be no small task but then again, game-changing alliances never come cheap.

Why Kwankwaso Is Tinubu’s Best Bet for 2027

As 2027 approaches, Tinubu’s path to re-election will not be paved with incumbency alone. He will need:

– A revived North-West,
– A pacified North-Central,
– And a North-East that feels seen and heard.

In this matrix, Kwankwaso is the bridge—the man who can bring youth, clerics, civil servants, and market women to the same political altar.

He has unrivaled grassroots loyalty, a message that resonates with the poor, and an image unmarred by corruption scandals. His political scars are from battles fought not deals made. He is respected even by his enemies.

Moreover, the presence of Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf, a protégé whose leadership in Kano has been widely praised for its focus on education, healthcare, and accountability, provides further moral weight to Kwankwaso’s image. This isn’t a godfather lording over a puppet it’s a mentor standing beside a capable successor.

Convincing Kwankwaso to align will not be easy. It will demand humility from those who once opposed him, and boldness from those who truly seek to renew the party’s northern fortunes. Yet, this is the kind of herculean task that separates transactional politics from visionary strategy.

The Coalition Mirage vs. APC Reality
Some have urged Kwankwaso to pursue a new coalition of smaller parties to mount an alternative challenge in 2027. But Nigeria’s electoral mathematics makes that route perilous. Fragmented structures, uneven financing, and conflicting egos have always doomed such efforts.
By contrast, a well-negotiated return to the APC now rid of Ganduje’s hostility offers Kwankwaso a platform with:

– National presence,
– Executive access,
– And a chance to shape policy from within.
But more importantly, it would allow him to broker a new northern alliance within the party one that reflects competence, not cronies.

And Tinubu, ever the strategist, knows the value of strong allies over loyal placeholders. He doesn’t need praise-singers. He needs doers. In Kwankwaso, he will find not just a partner but a peer.

A New Political Sunrise
Nigeria stands at a crossroads. The disillusionment of the electorate is deep. Hunger is rising, hope is thinning. What the country needs is not just a leader, but a renewal of trust in leadership.

Kwankwaso represents that possibility for the North just as Tinubu once did for the South-West. Together, they can reshape the national discourse, refocus the agenda on development, youth empowerment, and infrastructure, and return Nigerian politics to a place of purpose, not just performance.

Final Words: The Red Cap and the Lion
In the imagery of politics, Kwankwaso’s red cap and Tinubu’s lion emblem are more than symbols. They are signals of identity, strength, and resilience. Together, they could represent a political renaissance.

The North, tired of transactional politics and hollow leadership, is again looking for a voice. And in this moment, there is none louder, clearer, or more credible than that of Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso.

In the theatre of destiny, moments arise that demand bold choices, unlikely alliances, and visionary partnerships. The path to 2027 is not lit by certainty, but by courage. For President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, there can be no greater show of foresight than extending his hand not to flatterers, but to fellow builders. And for Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, the time is ripe not just to return but to rise.

Let the red cap meet the lion. Let North and South speak in one voice. Let the cynics scoff, but let the patriots act. For in the fusion of legacy and legitimacy, of structure and service, of purpose and power Nigeria may yet witness a new dawn.

The crowd is watching. The moment is calling. And history, ever impatient, is ready to be written again. Whispers have already begun. Some knocks may soon reach his door. The question is not whether he’s needed but whether he will answer.

Let the winds of 2027 begin to blow. Let history take its course. And let two of Nigeria’s most enduring architects of democracy forge a path not just to power but to progress.

Lamara Garba Azare, a political analyst, writes from Kano.

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The Debut of DSP Barau and Natural Occurances

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By Abba Anwar

Whether or not the Deputy Senate President, Barau I Jibrin is now the leader of All Progressives Congress (APC) in Kano is subject to understandings and explanations. Being the highest ranking elected person in the configuration of power, at the national level, means a lot in the chemistry of power sharing and influence.

Even before now, I said a lot and complained bitterly to some of the respected APC influencers, movers and shakers in other words, in Kano state, in the way and manner, those close to the former Governor of Kano State and former National Chairman of APC, Dr Abdullahi Umar Ganduje CON, were either ditching or aiding the ditching of this gentleman.

The most annoying part of it, is, how such people off their hands, when the need for image protection of the former governor was seeking genuine attention. Many accounts of this nature will come in my Memoir. Does my reader remember, when the former Chairman of Nassarawa local government, Auwal Shuaibu Aranposu was attacking Ganduje’s political dynasty?

That time, many of our social media people did little in the area of image protection of the dynasty, if you like. They resolved not to participate, because many of them believed Aranposu was more caring to them, though as a member of the opposition New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP), than those saddled with the responsibility of managing media around Baba Ganduje.

Aranposu issue, I think is enough. Not to talk of swapping of the names of our social media actors and others, during the recently conducted screening and primary election of APC aspirants, in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), by ditching agents around the then National Chairman. That was done to prevent our people to get the chicken change allowances from that exercise. Sheer greed and display of cruelty.

When Ganduje was governor, at the tail end of his second tenure, amongst those ditching his political machinery, up to the time he became the National Chairman of APC, some are not even from Kano state. They came, to primarily deconstruct him from all standpoints. Zaman karya da cin amana!

Coming back to DSP Barau, whose political presence means many things to different people. It is simply natural and Divinely designed, how his relevance, influence and shieldy political empire is waxing day in day out.

Before now, many devilish minds set him in clashes with other political heavyweights from Kano North Senatorial District. But to God be the Glory, fences were mended all before general elections. Reasons behind APC’s victory in all elections, leaving behind Kano Central and Kano South at the lowest ebb. In the past elections.

It reached an extent when the normal political disagreement between Senator Barau and the powerful Murtala Sule Garo, former Commissioner for Local Governments and Chieftaincy Affairs and the Deputy Gubernatorial Candidate of APC, in 2023 general election, was fueled by APC detractors within the party. It was Baba Ganduje’s diplomatic intervention that saved the situation. As Garo was made the Director General of Barau campaign organization.

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Senator Barau saw many disturbing developments, that were unarguably avoidable. That made his many paths to become thorny and too difficult to trek barefooted. Being a reserved and significantly humane politician, he remained calm, calculated and compounding.

To make the scenario worse, when Ganduje was exiting from office, after completing his second tenure as the governor of Kano state, he indicated interest in contesting for Senatorial seat, from the same zone with Barau, Kano North. Just as many governors do after completing their tenure in office. Pretending supporters of Ganduje at it again. They fueled, fueled and fueled the disturbing process.

Senator Barau, had to get Abuja backing before he secured his ticket again. While the peaceful Ganduje supported Barau to victory. Just as he did previously. You cannot take away this credit from him.

I think it was from that time, that the former National Chairman started x-raying his close so-called backers around him. When he became the National Chairman, other set of pretenders were either recruited or joined the bandwagon abruptly. More ploys, planless plans and insidious pretenses were injected into the system.

Another credit to Ganduje again was, he joined hands together with Senator Barau, to, at least, pose political threats and confusion to the ruling NNPP in Kano. Whatever happened in Kano, they said “Ganduje.” To the extent that when Kano official loses Raka’a in any of the 5 daily prayers, they said “Ganduje.” When an official’s wife has miscarriage, they said “Ganduje.”

Emirship tussle in Kano, they said “Ganduje.” Emir Aminu Ado Bayero’s stay in Nassarawa palace, they said “Ganduje.” Their inability and ineptitude in providing good governance for people in the state, they said “Ganduje.” He instilled palpable and endless fear in them.

With the Divine debut of the Deputy Senate President, most recently, which happened through many years of perseverance, patience, overlooking attitude and succumbing to frustrations, all frustrations and political anger from NNPP government in Kano, are geared towards the Senator. Many condemnations and rivalry are shifted, largely from Ganduje to Barau.

From within APC family in Kano, those defining Barau as politically handicapped and strategically mispositioned, have since started shifting ground. Some in covert operations, because they benefit from fueling political gap between the duo. Either the gap exists or not, is subject to one’s interpretation.

For many months back, I am privy to information that, Barau has since mended many fences, real and imaginary, with some APC juggernauts in the state. Especially those that are principled and not pretenders. Those who have the love of the party at heart. Not the eye service promoters.

To me, the way I see and understand it, is, Barau’s unwavering and undisputed progression is simply Divine and Godly. Is like God is proving a point for his servants on him. But I still wonder when people say, Barau lacks real politicians by his immediate side. To them, one can only progress politically when he has the kind of certain people by his side. Unknown to them, many people are not the same, when it comes to their modus operandi.

Senator Barau has been in politics for over 40 years. So what else do you need before you identify him as being an expert in political practice and development?

Believe it or not, many members of APC in Kano, honest and pretenders, have started making advances towards the Deputy Senate President. The good side of the story is, Senator Barau knows exactly what he wants from who and how. For long he has been monitoring those around Baba Ganduje. And clearly understands their merits and demerits, or antics, if you wish.

The fact that APC as a strong political party, is not gravitating around personalities, makes one comfortable to understand that, it is still waxing stronger in the national scheme of things.

And for the Deputy Senate President and First Deputy Speaker ECOWAS Parliament, one can say Barau Ikon Allah. That Barau is Allah’s making.

Anwar writes from Kano
July 3rd, 2025

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