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2023: The Fuss About Regions- Adetayo Balogun

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By Adetayo Balogun

 

 

It’s just more than 500 days to the 2023 Presidential election, and the permutations and possible combinations have started as to who Nigerians should vote. More loudly, discussions about the region to produce the next President has been more apparent and considered more necessary.

 

The Muhammadu Buhari administration has left Nigerians with mixed reactions. If feelers from the populace are anything to go by, it has left the people with more bitter pills to swallow. The excitement that followed the President’s candidacy in 2015 has since been extinguished with excruciating policies, a struggling economy and a shaky security architecture, all placing Nigeria in arguably its worst state yet.

 

Many argue that the current situation was always on the horizon, but Nigerians had little or no choice to make when they voted for Buhari in 2015. The country was in dire straits, and the next best option was always the messiah, hence the heavy support.

 

Four years later, Nigerians had a choice to make again in 2019, and it was former Vice President Atiku Abubakar against the incumbent, Buhari. Despite the noise about the nation’s state and the need for a positive turnaround, Nigerians elected Buhari again, winning mainly in the North and losing popularity in the South. In the 2019 election, the President garnered 44% and 41.7% of the total votes in the North-West and North-East, respectively, but only managed more than 20% in every geopolitical zone in the South except the South West.

 

The belief in the country is that the north voted Buhari in power again, and if left to the South, it’d have been another man at the helm of affairs.

 

In searching for the next President, there’s a debated preference for a Southerner to emerge; however, a section of the populace and those in the political space have clamoured for a united approach to the determination of the next President.

 

Katch Ononuju, the Director-General of the Heritage Centre, in an interview on News Central Television, argued that there’s no politician of the northern extract that can bring Nigerians together again. He said many Nigerians would prefer to see a Southerner become President, as the current administration has shown a nepotistic obsession with the North, which may affect the chances of any Presidential candidate from the region.

 

Political Analyst and the Spokesperson of the Presidential candidate of the PDP in the 2019 election, Segun Showunmi, argues that Nigeria’s next President should be any politician who has a known capacity to lead, regardless of the region he comes from. He said there is a debatable ground for different geopolitical zones to ask for their chance to produce the country’s next President.

 

Of all Nigeria’s geopolitical zones, the North West, which has the country’s highest population, has the state with the highest number of Presidents in Katsina. Late former President Umar Musa Yar’adua and incumbent Buhari are both from the state. Olu Segun Obasanjo from Ogun State and Goodluck Ebele Jonathan from Bayelsa State are known Southerners and have been Nigerian Presidents.

 

Despite this, there’s a belief that the emergence of Jonathan was more accidental than planned. If not for the painful and unfortunate demise of Yar’Adua, the South may never have had a shot at the Presidency beyond Obasanjo’s administration. This, many believe is arguable, but if considered critically and deeply enough, it may give pointers to where the nation stands.

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Goodluck Jonathan’s Emergence – A Southern Argument

 

 

In 2010, after the death of Yar’Adua, some powerful politicians openly stated their preference for a Northern replacement for Yar’Adua, with they argue that a Southerner could not become President again after Obasanjo. The constitution finally prevailed when Jonathan was sworn in as President.

 

The 2011 election would steer a new round of politicking and the powers favoured the former Bayelsa State Governor to finish what he’d started. This, to the Northern core enthusiasts, was a deviation from the expected arrangement. Jonathan’s emergence in 2011 wasn’t without contest, as he defeated Buhari, then of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) in that election. The Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) had Nuhu Ribadu as its Presidential candidate, and the PDP presented Atiku as its flag-bearer. This made Jonathan the strongest Southerner on the ballot, and he emerged.

Federal Govt Tasks State Governments on National Policy On Medical Oxygen

In 2015, the political framework and skeleton that ensured his victory four years earlier had been to a more powerful coalition. The All Progressives Congress and the rest, they say, is history. Jonathan, at the time, had only spent four years of his administration and six in total. More than the arrangement, he was a product of an accidental necessity that left the powers that be with little choice.

 

 

North, South… Does It Matter Where?

 

 

Since 1999, Nigeria has conducted six Presidential elections, and there has been an equitable distribution of regional arrangements, with the North and South producing Presidents two times.

 

This leaves the 2023 regional debate very open to voters’ choices more than political parties’ wishes. The ruling party and the main opposition are yet to state their positions on zoning in clear terms. Although some leading members of both parties have given a hint of their preference and the coming months are expected to lay open more arguments and the proper position of these parties.

 

Zoning, many politicians argue, is not engrained in their party’s constitutions and, therefore, leaves the field open to any interested candidate.

 

For strategy and feasting on the current mood in the country, political analysts have predicted that the leading parties are expected to cede their respective candidacies to the south. This, however, will also depend on the strength and popularity of the individuals ready to take on the mantle of leadership.

 

Some schools of thought also say that some political distributions are merely geographical and hold no essence in the depth of the recognition of regional identity. The North-Central feels hard done by the current administration, yet the tag “north” may stand a chance of ruining its political perception in the south. These arguments, analysts have advised, must be ironed out to produce the best candidate.

 

 

A Matter of “Who”

 

Many Nigerians can be excellent leaders, but not many can handle a complex country like Nigeria. The excruciating situation of Nigeria today begs for a leader with substance.

 

Former Military President Ibrahim Babangida suggests that the next President should be a man not above his 60s and with a good economic sense and coverage of the country. Automatically, this proves he’s looking beyond the possible candidacy of Atiku Abubakar or Bola Ahmed Tinubu; two experienced politicians touted to go head-to-head in 2023.

 

Chima Nnaji, a legal practitioner, said that Nigeria needs “an economic guru and a financial mechanic” to address the dwindling economy and bring the country back to its base. This, he identifies as the root of the troubles in the country.

 

The qualities listed above can be seen in Southern and Northern Nigerians. Still, analysts argue that a combination of possibilities, expected qualities and political arguments places a Southerner in better stead for the Presidency in 2023.

 

How strong that argument is and what Nigerians will decide is only a question of days to come.

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As Garo Takes Oath, Electorate In Kano’s 484 Wards Are Represented

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By Abba Anwar

As His Excellency, the Executive Governor of Kano State, Abba Kabir Yusuf superintendents the official swearing – in of His Excellency, Murtala Sule Garo, electorate in all the 484 political wards, across the 44 local governments of the state, will begin to feel well represented. Especially those within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). Alongside others from other parties. And even non-party individuals.

According to an analyst, from one of the political research groups based in Abuja, Garo is one of the few politicians in Kano, who have direct and real contacts in each and every ward in the state. So bringing him to the corridor of power, is not only strategic, but politically engaging.

Agreed he has his tentacles across all the 44 local governments and all the 484 wards, coupled with his well wishers across the state. Both state and non-state actors. Today’s swearing-in is not only one of the symbols of state political development, it is aptly conceived in the most designed inclusive political success stories.

While Garo was patiently waiting for the swearing – in, many more political reconciliations took place across political divides, intra and inter. With outstanding results all over camps, communities and individuals. He, outrightly, becomes a unifier for Kano First Agenda. The way I see it, is this, His Excellency, the Deputy Governor, is also one of the hottest cakes in the state now. A position, he enjoys for a long time before now.

His acceptance speech, says a lot in what he believes to be his cardinal principles, as a Deputy Governor. Without any doubt, Governor Yusuf, will find true loyalty, glued support and deliberate delivery in governance, government and the governed, in him.

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What is so fascinating at the swearing – in event, is the presence of His Excellency, Deputy Senate President, Distinguished Senator Barau I Jibrin, CFR, whose relationship with HE Garo has always been seen as a bit sour. An explanation, that, I, used to counter-argue on different occasions.

DSP’s presence, marks the beginning of new APC in Kano. I now see unity upon unity in Kano APC. This development alone, is promising, productive, engaging and fruitful. It says a bunch about fence mending effort, initiated and executed by some covertly notable individuals. Some of whom are not even from Kano.

The presence of the former Governor of the state, the Sardauna of Kano, Malam Ibrahim Shekarau, an embodiment of humility, during the event, is another symbol of excellence, signifying victory for the party in Kano. Shekarau, another icon whose visibility cuts across all the 44 local governments. The architect of Shoorah political dynasty. A sensitive leader, whose love among his people is largely genuine and unqualifiable.

The Senator representing Kano South, Senator Abdurrahman Kawu Sumaila’s attendance, at the event, sends signal to opposition parties, that Kano APC is one indivisible political entity. That cements its power, relevance and domineering effect across the length and breadth of the the state. Victory assured!

Without crossing any boundary, let me say this, part of the strong qualities of HE Garo is loyalty, straightforwardness, KALAMU WAHID, and taking his people closer to his heart. He cares for each and every member of his supporters community, not only in Kano, but even outside the state. His becoming so endearing to his people, supporters and well wishers, has never been accidental.

With DSP, Shekarau and Sumaila at the centre, HE Yusuf and HE Garo at the state level, along other critical stakeholders, Kano APC is waxing stronger, well positioned and expressly attractive. In unity the party can make wonders, make and not mar.

Let me assure the people’s governor, that, keeping HE closer, than usual, will aid the government in maintaining popular grassroot support, from now to election period and beyond. More so, closer understanding and cohesion between our leaders, especially between DSP Jibrin and HE Garo will help the governor in trickling down democratic dividends. In an appreciative manner.

The more our dear governor assigns responsibilities to HE Garo, the more chances for smooth administration. His Excellency, the Deputy Governor alone can shoulder all matters to do with, serving party loyalists, effective political strategy in the land and tension absorption.

Anwar writes from Kano
Tuesday, 5th May, 2026

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Kaduna 2027:The Man For The Job, Usman Shehu Bawa

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By Gimbiya Abdu, Kaduna

EARLY LIFE AND EDUCATION

Born in Kaduna in April 1973 into the family of Alhaji Bawa Garba – the businessman who pioneered satellite and cable TV in Northern Nigeria and launched the Kaduna International Trade Fair – Usman Shehu Bawa Garba, the 5th of 13 children, grew up with an early appreciation for access and enterprise.

He began his primary education at Kaduna Polytechnic Staff School, continued at Kaduna Capital School, and started secondary school at Sardauna Memorial College before transferring to the American-run Essence International School, where he graduated in 1993. He proceeded to Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, earning a Bachelor’s degree in Geography in 1999.

THE MAN BEHIND THE NAME: CHARACTER AND VALUES

Even as a student, Usman Bawa Garba was known as a man of the people, well-liked by his peers and teachers alike, already exhibiting the quiet, grounded leadership that would define his politics.

Humility remains his hallmark. Unassuming and approachable, he consistently seeks ways to make lasting impact in people’s lives. That instinct drives his low-key philanthropy, and he engages freely with all citizens irrespective of ethnicity or religion – a direct reflection of his upbringing.

FROM ANPP TO THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY: SERVICE AND TRACK RECORD

Hon. Usman Shehu Bawa Garba began his political career in the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), contesting for the House of Representatives to represent Kaduna North. He later joined General Muhammadu Buhari’s Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) and won his seat in the 2011 general elections, serving as Deputy Chairman of the House Committee on Communications, and periodically as Acting Chairman.

As a legislator from 2011 to 2015, Hon. Shehu ABG made impact by delivering people-focused projects across education, health, water and infrastructure in Kaduna North Federal Constituency.

ACHIEVEMENTS

ICT AND DIGITAL EDUCATION

He established and equipped solar-powered ICT centres at Kaduna State University, GSS Doka Boys, and Sardauna Memorial College, and drove early school digitalisation by donating over 400 computers.

Beneficiary schools included Kaduna Capital School, Sardauna Memorial School, GSS Ungwan Sarki, GSS Doka, GSS Independence Way, Nuruddeen Islam School Malali, GSS Badarawa, GSS Hayin Banki, and Rimi College, each receiving over 100 computers to expand digital learning access.

These centres remain operational today, with beneficiaries gaining digital skills, employment, freelancing opportunities and launching small tech ventures.

EDUCATION AND YOUTH DEVELOPMENT

Beyond ICT, he renovated classrooms and improved learning facilities in several public schools, including Abdullahi Gwandu College and Kaduna Capital School. Through the Shehu ABG Foundation, he funded free ICT training, SSCE sponsorships, and scholarships for indigent students.

In 2025 alone, the Foundation provided CBT training for 5,000 JAMB/UTME candidates and paid fees for 1,500–3,000 applicants. Internal tracking shows a majority met admission requirements, with many securing placements in tertiary institutions.

The Foundation also awarded health-field scholarships to 100 youths across all 23 LGAs.

WATER AND HEALTHCARE INTERVENTIONS

He delivered boreholes across the 12 wards of Kaduna North, improving access to clean and safe water. Notably, a 40,000-litre water facility was installed at Kawo Motor Park, easing water scarcity for motorists and travellers heading to Northern Nigeria. In healthcare, he constructed and upgraded primary healthcare facilities to strengthen grassroots services, including Ungwan Shanu Primary Health Care, enhancing community-level delivery.

ECONOMIC EMPOWERMENT AND JOB CREATION

Constituents remember tangible impact beyond speeches. He quietly distributed over 61 cars, countless motorcycles, grinding and sewing machines, irrigation pumps and direct cash support to youth, women, and elders. His private-sector experience in enterprise growth and youth empowerment complemented this.

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He facilitated employment for many young people into federal establishments including NIPOST, National Ear and Throat Hospital Kaduna, Federal Neuropsychiatric Hospital Kaduna, University of Nigeria Nsukka, Nigerian Army, Nigeria Police Force, Immigration Service, and NSCDC.

Through his ABG Computer School and skills acquisition programs, beneficiaries transitioned into income-generating activities, with several now running small businesses in fish farming, poultry, and ICT, and employing others.

SUSTAINED PHILANTHROPY AND INCLUSION

Since leaving the National Assembly, Hon. Shehu has maintained a steady, state-wide rhythm of intervention. His Ramadan relief efforts have distributed more than 10,000 bags of staple food and grains to widows, elders, persons with disabilities, and low-income households, alongside over ₦250 million in cash aid to orphans and vulnerable families.

These interventions are non-discriminatory as Christian communities have equally received Christmas gifts, educational support, and humanitarian assistance.

The Foundation has also implemented education support and relief across all 8 LGAs of Southern Kaduna between 2023 and 2025, reaching thousands of beneficiaries.

Hon. Usman Shehu Bawa Garba frames this as a personal culture of giving “even when not holding office,” aimed at easing hardship and expanding access. While in the National Assembly, his committee experience which included Diaspora, Health, Gas Resources, Electoral Matters, gave him a wide view of Kaduna’s bottlenecks.

THE 2027 MANDATE: A PEOPLE-FIRST GOVERNORSHIP AGENDA

Now a governorship aspirant under the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) for 2027, he has chosen the PDP as the most inclusive and nationally competitive platform to deliver people-oriented governance in Kaduna State. He is framing his record into a platform focused on four pillars:

1. SECURITY: To tackle the current security challenges facing the state, Hon. Shehu plans to deploy community-based security backed by ward-level intelligence gathering; invest in technology-driven surveillance and rapid response systems; tackle root causes through mass youth employment and skills programs.

2. INCLUSION FOR YOUTH, WOMEN, AND PERSONS WITH DISABILITIES: Given the diversity of Kaduna State, inclusion of youth, women and persons with disabilities is paramount in building an inclusive, prosperous and united state. In this stead, Hon. Bawa Garba plans to expand access to quality healthcare and education; sustain scholarship schemes, promote digital skills training, and implement targeted empowerment programmes for all.

3. FOOD SECURITY AND ECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION: The importance of ensuring food security given the current economic hardship and rising cost of food items cannot be overemphasized. Hon. Shehu outline some of his plans in this regard to include: support irrigation and cooperatives; drive investment in agro-processing, mini-grids, as well as investments in ICT hubs to create jobs.

4. GRASSROOTS GOVERNANCE: Regarding grassroots governance, Hon. Shehu is a strong advocate of local government autonomy. If elected governor, he will ensure the local government receives direct funding with full transparency, and he will define a clear role for traditional rulers in strengthening grassroots security and governance.

What makes Hon. Usman Shehu Bawa Garba different is grassroots acceptance across all regions, a consistent record of youth-focused interventions and a unifying approach to leadership that cuts across religious and ethnic lines.

The thread linking father and son remains the same: building infrastructure people can use to live meaningful livelihoods, carried forward with humility and a people-first approach.

Without doubt, S.H.E.H.U. is an embodiment of:
S – Service
H – Humility
E – Empathy
H – Honesty
U – Unity

Not through grand gestures or photo opportunities, but by deliberately and intentionally asking: How can we make the lives of our people better?

THE PLEDGE: Inclusive Governance for a greater Kaduna:
If elected in 2027, Hon. Shehu Usman Bawa Garba will govern through wide, continuous consultation with all Kaduna people – including traditional and religious leaders, technocrats, market associations, labour unions, farmers’ cooperatives, women’s groups, youth organisations, persons with disabilities, the elderly, and the underserved – irrespective of religion, ethnicity, or political creed.

His administration will deliver responsive, people-driven services that confront today’s harsh economy: affordable healthcare and quality education, food security via irrigation and input support, jobs through agro-processing, mini-grids and ICT hubs, and security that lets families and businesses thrive.

The measure is simple: no citizen regrets their vote. With transparency and inclusion, Hon. Shehu Usman Bawa Garba will deliver real dividends of democracy, restore dignity to livelihoods, and return Kaduna to peace, prosperity, and its past glory.

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Nigerian Opposition Parties: Divided Within, Weakened by External Forces

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By Ali Sabo

Nigeria’s democracy is facing a quiet but dangerous shift, not through the abolition of opposition parties, but through their systematic weakening. What is unfolding across the country’s political landscape increasingly suggests not just coincidence or internal dysfunction, but a pattern in which opposition parties are being fractured in ways that ultimately benefit the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

At the heart of this crisis is the steady disintegration of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). While internal divisions have long existed, recent developments point to something more strategic. The prominent role of Nyesom Wike, a leading PDP figure now serving as the FCT Minister within the APC government has blurred the line between opposition and ruling party influence. His continued leverage within PDP structures, combined with legal battles over party leadership, which were put to bed yesterday by the Supreme Court has effectively paralysed the party at a critical moment in Nigeria’s democratic cycle.

The pattern does not end with the PDP. The Labour Party, which energised millions of voters in the last election, is now entangled in leadership disputes and factional crises that have weakened its national momentum. The New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) faces similar fragmentation. Even newer coalition efforts around the African Democratic Congress (ADC), led by Senator David Mark, are already showing signs of destabilisation before they can fully consolidate.

Individually, each of these crises might be explained away as internal party failure. But taken together, they reveal a broader pattern: every major opposition platform is simultaneously weakened, divided, or distracted. This is where the question of interference becomes unavoidable.

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The circulation and reported video allegedly involving the Chief of Staff to the President, has intensified concerns that these outcomes may not be entirely organic. The suggestion that political actors are being encouraged to remain within opposition parties in order to destabilise them, if true, reflects a strategy that does not eliminate opposition outright, but renders it ineffective from within.

Even beyond that video, Nigeria’s political history shows that power is rarely neutral in moments like this. Influence is exercised through alliances, inducements, strategic appointments, and the leveraging of state and legal processes. When key opposition figures align closely with the ruling establishment while retaining influence in their original parties, it creates conditions for internal sabotage that are difficult to prove, but impossible to ignore.

To be clear, opposition parties are not without fault. Weak internal democracy, personality-driven leadership, and lack of ideological clarity have made them vulnerable. But vulnerability alone does not explain the consistency and timing of the crises now affecting nearly all major opposition platforms.

What emerges is a political environment where: Opposition parties are internally divided, leadership struggles consume their energy, legal disputes stall their progress, and, ultimately, the ruling party faces a fragmented and ineffective challenge

This is how dominant-party systems are built, not by banning opposition, but by ensuring it cannot function effectively.

Nigeria is not yet a one-party state. But if the current trajectory continues, it risks becoming something just as troubling: a system where opposition exists, but only in form, not in strength.

The danger here is not only political; it is democratic. When voters begin to feel that alternatives are weak, compromised, or deliberately undermined, trust in the system erodes. Participation declines. Cynicism grows. And power becomes increasingly concentrated.

The responsibility, therefore, is twofold. The ruling party must recognise that long-term legitimacy depends on fair competition, not strategic dominance at all costs. And opposition parties must urgently rebuild internal cohesion and resist forces, internal or external that seek to divide them.

Because in the end, democracy is not sustained by the strength of those in power alone, but by the presence of a credible, independent, and resilient opposition.

Ali Sabo is a political analyst, and he writes from Kano

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