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SPECIAL REPORT:Broken Frontlines: The Human and Political Costs of Nigeria’s Unfinished Insurgencies”

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By Yusuf Danjuma Yunusa

Since the transition from military to civilian rule in 1999, Nigeria has been grappling with multiple, simultaneous insurgencies and large-scale internal conflicts that have severely tested the authority of the state, resulted in massive humanitarian crises, and threatened national cohesion. The most prominent of these are the Boko Haram Insurgency in the Northeast, the Farmer-Herder Conflicts in the Middle Belt, the Militancy in the Niger Delta, and the rising Banditry in the Northwest. These conflicts are rooted in a complex interplay of historical grievances, economic marginalization, ethno-religious tensions, poor governance, and environmental pressures.

1.The Boko Haram Insurgency:

This is the most lethal and internationally recognized insurgency in Nigeria’s recent history.

Origins & Ideology:

Founded in 2002 by Mohammed Yusuf in Maiduguri, Borno State, as a radical Islamist sect advocating for the strict implementation of Sharia law and rejecting Western education (“Boko Haram” translates to “Western education is forbidden”).

It was initially fueled by widespread poverty, political corruption, and a sense of alienation among the Muslim youth in the Northeast.

However, not long enough, the group turned violently insurgent after a 2009 crackdown by security forces, which resulted in the extrajudicial killing of its founder. Under Abubakar Shekau’s leadership, it launched a full-scale guerrilla war against the Nigerian state.

Key Phases and Evolution:

Phase 1 (2009-2013): Intensification of attacks, including bombings of police stations, the UN headquarters in Abuja (2011), and churches. The declaration of a state of emergency in three northeastern states in 2013.

Phase 2 (2014-Present): Peak of territorial control. The group captured and held significant territory, including Gwoza, which Shekau declared the capital of an Islamic caliphate. The Chibok schoolgirls’ abduction in 2014 brought global attention.

Factionalization (2015-Present): In 2015, Boko Haram pledged allegiance to the Islamic State (ISIS), becoming the “Islamic State West Africa Province” (ISWAP). A rift grew between the more globally-focused ISWAP and Shekau’s more brutal faction, leading to his death in a clash with ISWAP in 2021. ISWAP now dominates, controlling rural areas and lake islands, employing sophisticated tactics, and imposing taxes on communities.

The Impact:

Human Cost: Over 35,000 deaths and millions displaced, creating a severe humanitarian crisis.

Territorial & Economic: Vast areas of Borno, Yobe, and Adamawa states were rendered ungovernable, devastating agriculture and trade.

Regional Spillover: The conflict has spread to neighboring Chad, Niger, and Cameroon.

Government Response:

Primarily military, involving large-scale operations and the establishment of a Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF).

Criticized for human rights abuses, a slow initial response, and failure to fully secure liberated territories, leading to a protracted conflict.

2.The Farmer-Herder Conflict in the Middle Belt
Often described as Nigeria’s “silent war,” this conflict has resulted in more annual fatalities than Boko Haram in recent years.

Root Causes:

Environmental Pressure: Desertification in the north has pushed Fulani herders southward into the fertile Middle Belt farmlands.

Resource Competition: Competition over dwindling water and pasture resources, exacerbated by climate change.

Breakdown of Traditional Protocols: The collapse of traditional conflict-resolution mechanisms and cattle routes.

Ethno-Religious Dimension: The conflict is often framed as Muslim (Fulani herders) versus Christian (predominantly Christian farming communities), adding a volatile layer to the resource struggle.

Nature of the Conflict:

Characterized by brutal attacks on villages, with reprisal killings creating a cycle of violence.

The conflict has become increasingly militarized, with farming communities and herder groups forming militias for self-defense, which often turn to aggression.

The Impact:

Death and Displacement: Thousands killed annually, with massive internal displacement

Food Security: Attacks on farming communities threaten Nigeria’s food basket, contributing to food inflation.

Communal Polarization: Deepened ethno-religious divides, threatening national integration.

Government Response:

Widely perceived as inadequate and slow. The government has been accused of bias and failing to hold perpetrators accountable.

Proposed solutions like the National Livestock Transformation Plan (NLTP) have seen limited implementation due to funding and political challenges.

3.Niger Delta Militancy
This insurgency is fundamentally an economic and environmental struggle, directly targeting the nation’s economic lifeline—oil production.

What Led to the Emergence of the Militancy?

Resource Curse & Marginalization: Despite producing the nation’s wealth, the Niger Delta region suffers from extreme poverty, environmental devastation from oil spills, and a lack of basic infrastructure.

Grievance: Communities feel cheated out of the benefits of their resources, leading to deep-seated anger against the federal government and multinational oil companies.

Evolution of the Conflict:

1990s – Early 2000s: Localized protests and activism (e.g., the Ogoni movement led by Ken Saro-Wiwa).

Mid-2000s Insurgency: Escalation into a full-blown insurgency led by groups like the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND). They conducted widespread pipeline bombings, kidnappings of oil workers, and attacks on oil installations, crippling oil production.

Government Amnesty (2009): President Yar’Adua’s administration introduced an Amnesty Program, offering monthly stipends and training to militants who disarmed. This was largely successful in reducing violence and restoring oil production for several years.

The amnesty program has been criticized as a temporary fix that did not address underlying issues of development and corruption.

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A new wave of “oil bunkering” or artisanal refining has emerged, led by sophisticated criminal syndicates, causing massive pollution and revenue loss. Groups like the “Delta Avengers” have also threatened a return to militancy.

4.Banditry and Rural Violence in the Northwest
This is a rapidly escalating crisis, often described as an “insurgency” due to its scale and organization.

Nature of the Conflict:

Initially attributed to criminal gangs involved in cattle rustling, these groups have evolved into highly organized, militarized networks.

They operate from forest reserves, launching attacks on villages, mass kidnappings for ransom (especially from schools), and imposing taxes on communities.
The primary drivers are similar to the Middle Belt: climate change, poverty, and a breakdown of rural security.

The Impact:

Humanitarian Crisis: Widespread displacement, making parts of Zamfara, Katsina, Kaduna, and Sokoto states unlivable, until the recent development which has escalated to almost every part of the country. Nigerians in most parts of the northern regions of the country have been experiencing grave terrorism since the beginning of the month of November this year.

Food Security: Farmers are unable to access their fields, threatening agricultural output.

Collapse of Education: Mass school abductions have led to widespread school closures. From higher institutions down to primary schools have been closed down in the past few days due to abduction of students.

Government Response:

Military operations and aerial bombardments have had limited success.The conflict is complicated by allegations of collaboration between bandits and some security officials and local elites. The Kebbi School Girls were released but no one knows if the terrorists were the ones who willingly let them go; or if it’s the government that negotiated with them by paying ransom; or if they were captured by the security operatives. The citizens are being left in the dark.
Terrorism as illustrated in its four different kinds above, are the things fueling insurgencies in this country.

Why Are All These Happening?

A decade Analyst of Nigeria’s security, Yakubu Mohammed, shared that insurgencies are happening in Nigeria for several obvious reasons of which failure of governance, economic factors and the degenerated security capacity of the country’s military engine room are not left out.

“All these insurgencies are, at their core, symptoms of state failure—the inability to provide security, justice, economic opportunity, and basic services to all citizens,” he said.

Mr. Yakubu said that poverty, unemployment (especially among youth), and rampant corruption are key drivers of recruitment into all these violent groups. Here, the Analyst made mentioned of one Mamman Nur–a close associate of the late Boko Haram leader, Abubakar Shekau. According to Mr. Yakubu, the Mamman Nur was lured back into the Boko Haram structure after he had left with money in hard currency when his friend, Shekau, heard that he was suffering, riding Okada before he could feed his family.

On the security architecture of the Nigeria’s military, Mr. Mohammed highlighted that “the Nigerian security forces are overstretched, underfunded, and sometimes accused of corruption and human rights abuses, undermining public trust.”

Why Has Nigerian Government Successively Failed To End The Insurgencies?

Speaking with a retired Major, Abubakar Salisu, he disclosed that the inability of successive governments of Nigeria to conquer insurgencies lies in the fact that they have made “fundamental and repeated errors.”

“We did not fail to tackle insurgencies because the task was impossible. We failed because our governments have made fundamental and repeated errors,” Major Salisu said.

The retired Major also added that funds meant for the fight against the terrorism are always diverted or misappropriated for selfish gains.

“Cancer of corruption, as I always call it, has been one of the reasons we failed in the fight against insecurity.”

He continued, “funds meant for arms, ammunition, intelligent equipment, and troops welfare have been systemically looted overtime.”

Major Salisu was generous enough to mention how some of the funds are being looted by stating emphatically that payrolls are padded with non-existent soldiers, and the salaries are pocketed by commanders and politicians. This means you have a battalion on paper that is, in reality, a company-strength unit on the ground, stretched thin and overwhelmed.

In his responses, the retired Major made it clear that the government at the helm of affairs always strive to do their best, but bottleneck effect usually occurs from the corridors of the military Chiefs who are the ones culpable of the funds diversion crimes.

“Billions are allocated for new weapons, armoured vehicles, and drones. What arrives, if it arrives at all, is often outdated, overpriced, or completely unsuitable for the theatre of operation.
This puts our men at a severe tactical disadvantage against insurgents who often have better, more mobile weaponry.”

The plot twist in the interview came shocking and disappointing when he mentioned that some of the top military officers are in bed with the terrorists. He mentioned that operations are most times being sabotaged due to breach in the security arrangements which gives the terrorists upper hand during confrontation.

“There are powerful individuals in the political and business class whose financial interests are tied to the continuation of the conflict”, Major Salisu asserted.

When asked to buttress, he further mentioned that “a prolonged insurgency is a cash cow. It allows for continuous security votes, inflated contracts, and a diversion of national resources. Ending it would end their gravy train.”

The retired Major conclusively mentioned that military operations from behind the scenes are being politicised, reason why results are not coming forth with regards to the fight against insecurity.

“The operational command of the military is often influenced by political considerations. There is constant interference from Abuja. We are told to advance, then ordered to halt for “negotiations” or “ceasefires” that the enemy uses to regroup and rearm.”

On that note, Major Salisu boastfully mentioned that a certain former governor from one of the Northern states–North West–who is now serving as a Minister is a better illustration of what he insinuated about political interference in the military operations against insurgencies in the country

A word of advice from the retired Major emphasized that until a government is ready to cut out the cancer of corruption, empower the military professionally, and follow a clear, consistent, and comprehensive national strategy that combines security with development, the country will continue to fight these insurgencies in perpetuity. A situation he described as a national tragedy.

Yusuf Danjuma Yunusa is a freelance journalist and a reporter with the Nigerian Tracker News. He can be reached via: 07069180810, or theonlygrandeur@gmail.com

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Education Stakeholders, SBMC Train Students on Skills for Self-Reliance

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Education stakeholders and School-Based Management Committees (SBMC) in Kano State have stressed the need to equip students with practical skills alongside formal education to prepare them for self-reliance and reduce dependence on government employment.

Chairman of the School-Based Management Committees (SBMC) in Kano State, Tijjani Haladu Baraya, said the skills training programme was important because education should not only prepare students to obtain certificates but should also equip them with practical knowledge that can enable them to earn a living after graduation.

Baraya explained that the initiative was designed to teach students various skills while they are still in school, stressing that having formal education does not necessarily guarantee automatic access to government employment.

According to him, the reality of the current employment market makes it necessary for students to acquire additional skills that would enable them to create opportunities for themselves rather than waiting for government jobs.

He said, “If you study, you will not necessarily get a government job,” adding that the programme was specifically introduced to teach children in schools practical skills that would enable them to rely on themselves after completing their education.

Baraya further emphasised the importance of encouraging female students to acquire vocational and entrepreneurial skills, noting that such knowledge could help women become economically independent and contribute meaningfully to their families and communities.

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The SBMC chairman said the committees were fully supporting the initiative because students could graduate with both academic certificates and practical skills, which, according to him, would give them a better chance of becoming self-reliant.

He added that equipping students with skills would also enable them to support their parents and reduce the financial pressure on families, particularly at a time when employment opportunities were becoming increasingly competitive.

Similarly, the Chairman of the Parent-Teachers Association (PTA) in Kano State, Dalhatu Salhu Maijumuri, described the training of students in practical skills as a highly important initiative capable of producing significant benefits for students, families and society.

Maijumuri said the programme would have a far-reaching impact because students who acquired practical skills could use them to establish businesses or provide services for themselves instead of waiting indefinitely for formal employment.

According to him, the era when students completed their education and immediately secured government jobs had largely passed, making it necessary for the education system to respond to the changing realities of the labour market.

“Gone are the days when students finish school and they will immediately get a government job,” Maijumuri said, pointing to the intense competition for the limited employment opportunities available.

He explained that where an organisation had only a few vacancies, thousands of qualified applicants could compete for the same positions, making reliance solely on formal employment an increasingly difficult option for young people.

“For example, now if there is a vacancy for like ten personalities, you will see hundred thousand people jostling for it,” the PTA chairman said, stressing the need for students to develop alternative means of livelihood.

Maijumuri therefore urged stakeholders in the education sector to continue supporting skills acquisition programmes in schools, saying that practical training would give students the ability to become self-reliant and productive members of society.

He further said that empowering students with vocational and entrepreneurial skills would not only benefit the individuals involved but would also reduce pressure on government to provide jobs for every graduate.

The PTA chairman also maintained that investment in skills acquisition would benefit future generations because children who received both formal education and practical training would be better positioned to contribute to economic development and build sustainable livelihoods.

He said the combination of academic education and practical skills would therefore strengthen the education system and ensure that students were prepared not only to seek employment but also to create employment opportunities for themselves and others.

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Economists Project 12–20 Years Before Nigerians Reap Gains from Tinubu Reforms

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By Yusuf Danjuma Yunusa

Economists say Nigerians may have to wait between 12 and 20 years to fully feel the benefits of President Bola Tinubu’s economic reforms.

According to them, the measures are likely to deliver gradual improvements in productivity and real incomes rather than immediate relief from high prices and declining purchasing power.

The economists told Nairametrics that major structural reforms typically involve a painful adjustment period before their benefits become evident, adding that the pace of improvement would depend largely on policy stability, infrastructure development, the rule of law and investments in productive sectors of the economy.

Chief Economist and Partner at SPM Professionals, Dr. Paul Alaje, said structural reforms generally take 12 to 20 years before their impact becomes significantly visible, although some countries have recorded meaningful results within six to 10 years.

“On the average, it takes 12 to 20 years before nations start feeling the impact of reforms. That does not necessarily mean such countries will see overnight reduction in their exchange rate. But what they will see is growth in real income as productivity expands,” Alaje told Nairametrics.
Financial economist at Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Dr. Felix Echekoba, also said major economic restructuring usually imposes short-term sacrifices before delivering long-term benefits.

“Most successful economic restructurings around the world imposed short-term sacrifices on the masses before long-term benefits.
“The challenge is working hard enough to ensure that the adjustment period does not become unnecessarily prolonged and that vulnerable citizens are protected,” he said.
According to Professor Tayo Bello, a development economist at Adeleke University, Nigeria’s experience is consistent with the pattern observed in other countries that have undertaken major subsidy and exchange rate reforms.

“There is no case of any country implementing major subsidy removal and exchange rate reforms without experiencing temporary economic distress. What matters are policy stability and whether the reforms ultimately fuel productivity and investment,” Bello said.
Why Nigerians are yet to feel the benefits
Tinubu introduced a series of far-reaching economic reforms after assuming office in May 2023, including the removal of petrol subsidies, liberalisation of the foreign exchange market, electricity tariff increases and tax reforms aimed at improving government revenue and fiscal sustainability.

The reforms have received support from international financial institutions, but their immediate impact has been overshadowed by elevated food and service prices, high interest rates and declining household purchasing power.

Alaje said the absence of key conditions needed to support structural reforms is limiting the speed at which Nigerians can benefit from the government’s policies.

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According to him, countries that have achieved faster results from reforms typically had functional institutions, respect for the rule of law, adequate infrastructure and a high level of citizen awareness.

“A functional system where the rule of law is respected and obeyed, abundant infrastructure evident in the availability of roads, electricity and rail system, as well as high level of citizen awareness” are among the factors that can accelerate the benefits of reforms,” he said.
Alaje said Nigeria still faces significant gaps in these areas, particularly infrastructure and institutional effectiveness.

“Businesses are now approaching the banks, but interest rates are not coming down. It ranges between 30 and 40%. Households are now struggling with a minimum wage of N70,000, with the country’s poverty rate at over 140 million, more than 60% of the population,” he said.
He added that the poorest Nigerians would bear much of the burden during the adjustment period, warning that reforms alone would not be enough to lift millions of people out of poverty within a few years.

“It will take more than a decade for the masses to feel any positive impact of Tinubu’s reforms,” Alaje said.
Infrastructure, investment key to reform gains
Bello said macroeconomic stability achieved through reforms would only provide the foundation for broader economic transformation.

“Macroeconomic stability is only the first step. The real benefits come when reforms are buttressed by investments in infrastructure, manufacturing, agriculture, education and technology,” he said.
He added that countries that successfully transformed their economies combined fiscal and monetary reforms with aggressive industrialisation strategies.

Echekoba similarly said the government must ensure that the adjustment period does not become unnecessarily long while putting measures in place to protect vulnerable households.

The economists’ assessment is consistent with experiences from countries that undertook major economic reforms before recording broader improvements in living standards.

India’s economic liberalisation programme, introduced in 1991 following a balance of payments crisis, helped restore macroeconomic stability within about two years. However, broader gains in foreign investment, industrial growth and poverty reduction became more evident over the following decade.
Ghana’s Economic Recovery Programme, introduced in the 1980s, also took several years before inflation declined significantly and economic growth became more sustainable.
Indonesia’s reforms following the 1997 Asian financial crisis similarly took several years to restore investor confidence and return the economy to a stronger growth path.
Egypt’s 2016 currency flotation and subsidy reforms initially triggered a sharp rise in inflation, which exceeded 30%. The economy subsequently recorded stronger growth, increased foreign investment and improved macroeconomic stability after several years of implementation.
These experiences suggest that the economic benefits of major structural reforms can take several years to become widely visible, particularly where reforms are accompanied by significant increases in the cost of living during the initial adjustment period.

Before the removal of petrol subsidies in 2023, the Federal Government was budgeting about N3.36 trillion annually for fuel subsidy payments.

The Tinubu administration had argued that ending the subsidy would free up resources for infrastructure development and social programmes designed to cushion the impact of the policy on households.

However, the economists said the extent to which Nigerians ultimately benefit from the reforms will depend on how effectively the government deploys the savings and creates conditions for higher productivity, investment and real income growth.

Source: Nairametric

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C-JTF Kano Urges Government to Strengthen Community-Based Security Groups

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The Commander General of the Coalition for Community-Based Security Organisation (C-JTF), Kano State Command, Sani Elmansur, has urged the Kano State Government to strengthen and properly integrate community-based security groups into the state’s security architecture to address growing challenges of insecurity, drug abuse and street gang activities.

Elmansur made the call while offering recommendations on ways the government could improve security across Kano State, stressing that the complexity of contemporary security challenges requires stronger collaboration between conventional security agencies and community-based organisations.

According to him, the Kano State Government should bring together registered community-based security groups that have been established to support conventional security agencies, rather than allowing their activities to operate without adequate coordination and supervision.

Elmansur said the leadership of many of the recognised community security organisations possesses considerable knowledge of community safety and security matters, adding that their experience should be properly harnessed in the fight against crime.

He explained that community-based security personnel are not merely individuals who patrol neighbourhoods, but include leaders and members with knowledge of local security conditions and the ability to identify emerging threats within their communities.

The C-JTF commander further called for specialised training for government-established initiatives such as the “Anti-Phone Snatching” groups, saying their effectiveness could be improved if they were exposed to modern security techniques and professional methods of crime prevention.

According to Elmansur, the government should ensure that such groups receive adequate training in modern security operations, surveillance, intelligence gathering, communication and appropriate responses to security threats.

He expressed concern over situations in which suspected street gangs or “Yan Daba” allegedly operate for long periods in some neighbourhoods without immediate intervention from conventional security personnel, despite reports being made by residents.

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Elmansur said that in some instances, residents could report the activities of street gangs and wait for between one and two hours before security personnel arrive at the affected locations, a situation he said could expose residents and their property to unnecessary danger.

He, however, noted that security patrols and checkpoints alone may not be sufficient to deter criminal elements if the criminals are able to identify the security personnel and avoid their locations.

According to him, criminals may simply stay away from areas where they see security personnel conducting regular patrols, only to resume their activities after the officers leave, thereby reducing the effectiveness of conventional patrol strategies.

Elmansur therefore recommended the establishment of security posts in areas identified as hotspots for youth gangs and other criminal activities, saying such locations should have a continuous security presence rather than occasional patrols.

He said the government should identify neighbourhoods where large numbers of unruly youths and suspected criminal elements congregate and establish security structures that can remain operational around the clock.

The C-JTF commander explained that a system of continuous community surveillance would enable security personnel and community-based organisations to respond more quickly whenever suspicious activities are detected.

Elmansur also advocated stronger intelligence gathering at the grassroots, stressing that residents are often the first to notice unusual movements, gatherings or activities that could develop into serious security threats.

He maintained that if information about suspicious activities is obtained early and promptly transmitted to the appropriate security authorities, security agencies would have a better opportunity to prevent crimes before they occur.

According to him, the adoption of such a proactive security strategy would help reduce street violence, clashes and other forms of criminal activity within Kano metropolis and surrounding communities.

Elmansur emphasised that the objective of the recommendations is not to replace conventional security agencies, but to create stronger cooperation between them and properly trained, registered and coordinated community-based security organisations.

He urged the Kano State Government to consider a comprehensive framework for coordinating the various community security groups operating across the state, including clear responsibilities, reporting channels, training requirements and supervision.

The C-JTF commander said such coordination would prevent duplication of efforts and ensure that community security organisations complement the work of the police and other conventional security agencies.

He further stressed the importance of protecting the lives and property of residents, describing security as a collective responsibility requiring the participation of government, security agencies, community organisations and citizens.

“Those are some of the recommendations we are giving to the government in order to protect the lives and property of the people,” Elmansur said.

He added that a properly coordinated community-based security system, backed by modern training and effective collaboration with conventional security agencies, could significantly contribute to restoring peace and reducing criminal activities across Kano State.

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