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Cover Story – Changing the Game: Key Factors That Will Shape the 2027 Elections Differently from 2023

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8 months ago

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Again, the permutations for the next presidential election, which will be held in 2027, have started. In a deliberate attempt to compare and analyze possible events of 2023 that may likely occur again in the forthcoming 2027 election,  Nigerian Tracker’s Yusuf Danjuma Yunusa, filed the story below:

The electioneering for the 2027 presidential election will, in the next six months, kick-start. The opposition is still scavenging for a potent platform to ride into the field with the ruling All Progressives Congress.

Will the platform be the Social Democratic Party (SDP), which El-Rufai, one of the founders of the ruling All Progressives Congress now belongs to, or the newly sought-after bride, the African Democratic Congress (ADC)?

Asking Dr. Kabir Sufi Sa’id a Public Affairs Analyst based in Abuja whether the political dynamics of the 2023 election will emerge again in the forthcoming 2027 election, he responded:

“There may be some similarities between the 2023 and 2027 contests, as well as some differences,” Dr. Kabir asserted. He noted that there are major changes in the affairs of each of the political parties that contested in the 2023 election.

“During the 2023 election, the case was an incumbent president trying all he could to support his party’s candidate. But that is not the case for the coming 2027 presidential election, as the incumbent president is the one contesting himself.”

“Also, with developments in the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), there are indications that Alhaji Atiku Abubakar will leave the party for another in order to contest for the office of the presidency,” he stressed further.

On that account, it’s safe to say that a faction of the party will definitely leave with Alhaji Atiku. This will undoubtedly bring about a change in the country’s politicking compared to that of 2023.

The political scientist and public affairs analyst further divulged that “with the intended coalition between the ADC and SDP, Nigerians should expect further alignments from some other bigwigs from the opposition parties, just as it was recorded when El-Rufai initially left APC for the SDP,” even as he pointed out that they have still not found common ground among themselves.

He also opined that the only similarity between the 2023 and 2027 elections that is in play at the moment is the fact that the APC, which was the ruling party then, is still the ruling party now. He stated that it may be a rosy journey for the party again into the villa, except if the citizens react to harsh economic policies by voting it out of power.

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Dr. Kabir was further asked if he reads meaning into the absence of former President Buhari and some of his loyalists at the National Summit held at the banquet hall by the ruling All Progressives Congress on the 23rd of May, 2025, where the 22 governors of the party, the leaders of the National Assembly, and its members passed a vote of confidence in President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for a second tenure in the presidency.

The analyst didn’t hesitate to mention that even the Katsina State Governor wasn’t in attendance at the summit. “The former President Buhari wasn’t the only person absent from the summit; his state governor, Dikko Radda was not in attendance either,” he pointed out.

“But the governor’s absenteeism was attributed to a state function, which was beforehand slated to hold on the same day that the APC announced its summit,” he added in the governor’s defense.

“As for the absenteeism of some of Buhari’s loyalists at the summit, it was clearly understood that the CPC faction of the APC, as led by Abubakar Malami, the former attorney general of the federation during Buhari’s administration was absent. However, the Al-Makura faction was in attendance.”

It could be deduced from Dr. Kabir’s revelation above that the APC family is also divided, as Malami’s faction is against the Tinubu administration, while the Al-Makura faction supports it.

Analysis from the last presidential election in all the geopolitical zones in the country shows that the ruling party garnered most of its votes from the North West, which comprises seven states, the K states, Zamfara, and Jigawa. It clinched a total of 2.6 million votes, with its closest rival the PDP, recording nearly the same figure at 2.3 million votes.

Furthermore, in the Northeastern part of the country, which includes Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Taraba, and Yobe states, the ruling party was defeated, with the opposition PDP coming first with 1.7 million votes while it secured 1.1 million votes.

For the two zones above, Peter Obi’s Labour Party managed to secure fourth and third places, respectively, overtaking Kwankwaso’s NNPP in the North East.

However, in what didn’t come as a shock, the Labour Party took the lead in the South-South, which comprises Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Edo, and Delta states. It recorded 1.2 million votes, with the ruling party and PDP coming second and third, respectively.

In the South-West, which is the stronghold of the ruling party’s candidate, the APC overwhelmed the opposition parties, with PDP being the closest, having recorded 941,941 votes, and LP recording 846,478.

The so-called “neutral ground” states also known as the North-Central, comprising six states (Kogi, Niger, Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa, Kwara) and the FCT gave the lead to the opposition PDP with a record of 5.2 million votes. The ruling party came second with 1.7 million votes, while LP came third with 1.4 million votes.

Convincingly and without surprise, LP, in a landslide victory, defeated the ruling party and the opposition PDP with a total of 1.9 million votes in the South-East region. Thus, it is now substantiated that each of the three leading candidates, Tinubu, Atiku, and Obi won their respective zones. It is evident that the battlegrounds for these candidates were the North-West, South-South, and North-Central.

The aforementioned was the political situation in the country as of 2023. There were fierce political permutations and strong political oppositions.

However, as we approach the 2027 presidential election, the story may likely change, considering the political atmosphere of the nation. Currently, there is no serious opposition.

So, the questions remain: What will be the fate of the opposition as the 2027 presidential election draws nearer?

With the division in the ruling All Progressives Congress, will it return its candidate, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to the presidency for a second term?

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El-Rufai’s Counsel Threatens Legal Action Over Airport Face-off

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13 hours ago

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February 12, 2026

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By Yusuf Danjuma Yunusa

 

The legal team of former Kaduna State Governor, Malam Nasir Ahmad El-Rufai, on Thursday condemned what it described as an unlawful attempt by security operatives to arrest their client upon his arrival at the Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja.

In a statement issued in Abuja and signed by Ubong Esop Akpan of The Chambers of Ubong Akpan, counsel to El-Rufai, the lawyers alleged that operatives of the Department of State Services (DSS) attempted to arrest the former governor without presenting a warrant or formal invitation.

According to the statement, El-Rufai arrived in Abuja aboard Egypt Air flight MS 877 from Cairo when security agents moved to detain him.

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The legal team argued that the invitation earlier issued by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) was delivered to El-Rufai’s residence while he was out of the country, describing any demand for immediate appearance as “illogical and impractical.”

The lawyers said they had formally communicated with the EFCC since December 2025, assuring the Commission that El-Rufai would honour the invitation upon his return. They further stated that the EFCC was notified that he would voluntarilyx appear at its office by 10:00 a.m. on Monday, February 16, 2026.

They described the alleged attempt to arrest him despite this commitment as arbitrary and a violation of due process.

The statement further alleged that security operatives seized El-Rufai’s international passport during the encounter, an action the legal team characterised as unlawful.

Citing provisions of the 1999 Constitution (as amended), the lawyers contended that the attempted arrest breached their client’s fundamental rights, including the right to personal liberty, fair hearing, dignity of the human person, freedom of movement and right to own property.

“No government agency possesses unfettered authority to detain citizens without due process,” the statement read, adding that all state institutions are bound by constitutional safeguards.

The legal team demanded the “immediate and unconditional cessation” of any attempt to detain El-Rufai, the return of his passport, and a formal apology for what it termed an infringement on his rights and dignity.

It also maintained that the former governor would honour all legitimate law enforcement summons and would not evade lawful investigation.

The lawyers warned that legal action would be pursued against individuals and agencies allegedly responsible for the incident, stressing that the judiciary remains the proper avenue for resolving the matter.

As of press time, there was no official response from the DSS or the EFCC regarding the allegations.

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Senate Grills AGF Over Zero Capital Allocations, Unpaid Contracts in 2025 Budget

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13 hours ago

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February 12, 2026

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By Yusuf Danjuma Yunusa

The Accountant-General of the Federation (AGF), Dr Shamseldeen Ogunjimi, faced intense questioning on Thursday as the Senate Committee on Finance scrutinised the 2025 budget implementation, citing zero capital allocations to several Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs), mounting unpaid contracts and concerns over the Centralised Payment System.

The heated exchange occurred during the AGF’s budget defence session, where lawmakers voiced frustration over what they described as poor fund releases and low implementation levels despite increased government revenues.

Chairman of the Committee, Senator Sani Musa (Niger East), opened the session with sharp criticism, accusing the Office of the Accountant-General of maintaining what he termed an “unfriendly” posture toward the committee.

“We are not going to take your budget until we are satisfied that your office is ready to do things that will make things work for Nigerians,” Musa said.

He also questioned the continued use of the envelope budgeting system, arguing that it had failed to deliver desired outcomes and should be replaced with a more performance-based framework.

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Senator Danjuma Goje (Gombe Central) described the current situation as “embarrassing,” noting a surge in complaints from contractors over unpaid jobs since 2024.

“We have never seen contractors bombarding us weekly for intervention on non-payment of executed contracts,” Goje said.

He queried the impact of recent fiscal reforms, including the removal of fuel subsidy and the unification of the foreign exchange market, which were expected to boost government revenues.

“The impression given to Nigerians is that more money is available. Where is the money now? Why are contractors owed? And why was there zero allocation for capital votes of most MDAs in 2025?” he asked.

Senator Muntari Dandutse (Katsina South) raised concerns over reports that revenue-generating agencies recorded N28 trillion, yet many contractors remain unpaid and several MDAs have no capital allocation.

“What happened to the N28 trillion?” he asked, adding that the Centralised Payment System had not improved the situation and was allegedly affecting government operations.

Other lawmakers, including Senators Abdul Ningi (Bauchi Central), Asuquo Ekpenyong (Cross River South), Adams Oshiomhole (Edo North), Aminu Abbas (Adamawa Central) and Patrick Ndubueze (Imo North), urged the AGF to advise President Bola Tinubu on the need to prevent possible internal sabotage within the system.

Responding, Ogunjimi attributed the funding challenges to indiscriminate contract awards by some MDAs without confirmed budgetary backing. He said a directive had been issued prohibiting agencies from awarding contracts without available funds.

“As Accountant-General, my office can only disburse funds that are available. I must have the funds before I can release them,” he said.

He also noted that the previous reliance on “Ways and Means” financing had been discontinued in the interest of economic stability.

While acknowledging operational challenges with the Centralised Payment System, the AGF assured lawmakers that steps were being taken to address the issues and improve efficiency.

The committee later moved into a closed-door session with the AGF for further deliberations.

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Fubara Orders Immediate Dissolution of Rivers Executive Council

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13 hours ago

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February 12, 2026

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By Yusuf Danjuma Yunusa

Rivers State Governor, Sir Siminalayi Fubara, has dissolved the State Executive Council with immediate effect.

The announcement was made in a Government Special Announcement issued on Thursday and signed by the Chief Press Secretary to the Governor, Onwuka Nzeshi.

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According to the statement, all Commissioners and Special Advisers have been directed to hand over to the Permanent Secretaries or the most senior officers in their respective ministries without delay.

“His Excellency, Sir Siminalayi Fubara, GSSRS, Governor of Rivers State, has dissolved the State Executive Council,” the statement read.

The governor also expressed appreciation to the outgoing members of the Executive Council for their service and wished them well in their future endeavours.

No reason was provided for the dissolution at the time of filing this report.

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