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Cover Story – Changing the Game: Key Factors That Will Shape the 2027 Elections Differently from 2023

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Again, the permutations for the next presidential election, which will be held in 2027, have started. In a deliberate attempt to compare and analyze possible events of 2023 that may likely occur again in the forthcoming 2027 election,  Nigerian Tracker’s Yusuf Danjuma Yunusa, filed the story below:

The electioneering for the 2027 presidential election will, in the next six months, kick-start. The opposition is still scavenging for a potent platform to ride into the field with the ruling All Progressives Congress.

Will the platform be the Social Democratic Party (SDP), which El-Rufai, one of the founders of the ruling All Progressives Congress now belongs to, or the newly sought-after bride, the African Democratic Congress (ADC)?

Asking Dr. Kabir Sufi Sa’id a Public Affairs Analyst based in Abuja whether the political dynamics of the 2023 election will emerge again in the forthcoming 2027 election, he responded:

“There may be some similarities between the 2023 and 2027 contests, as well as some differences,” Dr. Kabir asserted. He noted that there are major changes in the affairs of each of the political parties that contested in the 2023 election.

“During the 2023 election, the case was an incumbent president trying all he could to support his party’s candidate. But that is not the case for the coming 2027 presidential election, as the incumbent president is the one contesting himself.”

“Also, with developments in the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), there are indications that Alhaji Atiku Abubakar will leave the party for another in order to contest for the office of the presidency,” he stressed further.

On that account, it’s safe to say that a faction of the party will definitely leave with Alhaji Atiku. This will undoubtedly bring about a change in the country’s politicking compared to that of 2023.

The political scientist and public affairs analyst further divulged that “with the intended coalition between the ADC and SDP, Nigerians should expect further alignments from some other bigwigs from the opposition parties, just as it was recorded when El-Rufai initially left APC for the SDP,” even as he pointed out that they have still not found common ground among themselves.

He also opined that the only similarity between the 2023 and 2027 elections that is in play at the moment is the fact that the APC, which was the ruling party then, is still the ruling party now. He stated that it may be a rosy journey for the party again into the villa, except if the citizens react to harsh economic policies by voting it out of power.

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Dr. Kabir was further asked if he reads meaning into the absence of former President Buhari and some of his loyalists at the National Summit held at the banquet hall by the ruling All Progressives Congress on the 23rd of May, 2025, where the 22 governors of the party, the leaders of the National Assembly, and its members passed a vote of confidence in President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for a second tenure in the presidency.

The analyst didn’t hesitate to mention that even the Katsina State Governor wasn’t in attendance at the summit. “The former President Buhari wasn’t the only person absent from the summit; his state governor, Dikko Radda was not in attendance either,” he pointed out.

“But the governor’s absenteeism was attributed to a state function, which was beforehand slated to hold on the same day that the APC announced its summit,” he added in the governor’s defense.

“As for the absenteeism of some of Buhari’s loyalists at the summit, it was clearly understood that the CPC faction of the APC, as led by Abubakar Malami, the former attorney general of the federation during Buhari’s administration was absent. However, the Al-Makura faction was in attendance.”

It could be deduced from Dr. Kabir’s revelation above that the APC family is also divided, as Malami’s faction is against the Tinubu administration, while the Al-Makura faction supports it.

Analysis from the last presidential election in all the geopolitical zones in the country shows that the ruling party garnered most of its votes from the North West, which comprises seven states, the K states, Zamfara, and Jigawa. It clinched a total of 2.6 million votes, with its closest rival the PDP, recording nearly the same figure at 2.3 million votes.

Furthermore, in the Northeastern part of the country, which includes Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Taraba, and Yobe states, the ruling party was defeated, with the opposition PDP coming first with 1.7 million votes while it secured 1.1 million votes.

For the two zones above, Peter Obi’s Labour Party managed to secure fourth and third places, respectively, overtaking Kwankwaso’s NNPP in the North East.

However, in what didn’t come as a shock, the Labour Party took the lead in the South-South, which comprises Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Edo, and Delta states. It recorded 1.2 million votes, with the ruling party and PDP coming second and third, respectively.

In the South-West, which is the stronghold of the ruling party’s candidate, the APC overwhelmed the opposition parties, with PDP being the closest, having recorded 941,941 votes, and LP recording 846,478.

The so-called “neutral ground” states also known as the North-Central, comprising six states (Kogi, Niger, Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa, Kwara) and the FCT gave the lead to the opposition PDP with a record of 5.2 million votes. The ruling party came second with 1.7 million votes, while LP came third with 1.4 million votes.

Convincingly and without surprise, LP, in a landslide victory, defeated the ruling party and the opposition PDP with a total of 1.9 million votes in the South-East region. Thus, it is now substantiated that each of the three leading candidates, Tinubu, Atiku, and Obi won their respective zones. It is evident that the battlegrounds for these candidates were the North-West, South-South, and North-Central.

The aforementioned was the political situation in the country as of 2023. There were fierce political permutations and strong political oppositions.

However, as we approach the 2027 presidential election, the story may likely change, considering the political atmosphere of the nation. Currently, there is no serious opposition.

So, the questions remain: What will be the fate of the opposition as the 2027 presidential election draws nearer?

With the division in the ruling All Progressives Congress, will it return its candidate, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to the presidency for a second term?

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Breaking :Gov. Yusuf Resigns NNPP Membership as Kano Political Realignment Deepens

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Kano State Governor, Alhaji Abba Kabir Yusuf, has formally resigned his membership of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP), citing deepening internal crises and the need to safeguard the broader interest of the people of Kano State.

This was contained in a statement signed by the governor’s spokesperson, Sunusi Bature Dawakin Tofa on Friday.

The Governor, in a letter addressed to the Chairman of Diso-Chiranchi Ward, NNPP, Gwale Local Government Area, officially communicated his decision to withdraw from the party with effect from Friday 23rd January 2026.

“I write with a deep sense of gratitude to formally notify the leadership of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) of my decision to resign my membership of the party, with effect from Sunday, 25 January 2026.”

Governor Yusuf expressed appreciation to the party for the platform and support extended to him throughout his political engagement with the NNPP.

“I remain sincerely appreciative of the opportunity given to me by the party, its leadership, and members across Kano State to be part of its political journey since 2022, as well as the support, goodwill, and cooperation extended to me during my time in the party.”

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He pointed to persistent internal disputes and legal challenges that have continued to unsettle the party’s structure nationwide.

“In recent times, the party has been confronted with persistent internal challenges arising from leadership disagreements and ongoing legal processes, many of which are presently before the courts for judicial determination.”

According to the Governor, the internal disagreements have widened divisions and weakened cohesion within the party.

“The growing disenfranchisement among party members has created deep divisions within the party structure, resulting in cracks that appear increasingly irreconcilable and have generated uncertainty at both state and national levels.”

Governor Yusuf stated that his decision followed careful reflection and was guided strictly by public interest considerations.

“After careful reflection, and without prejudice to the party’s capacity to resolve its internal challenges, I have come to the conclusion that my resignation is in the best interest of the people of Kano State.”

He emphasized that the decision was taken in good faith and without bitterness.

“This decision is taken in good faith, without any ill will, and with a continued commitment to peace, unity, and the progress of Kano State.”

The Governor is resigning today along with 21 members of the State Assembly, 8 members of the House of Representatives and 44 Local Government Chairmen of Kano state.

The resignation letter was acknowledged by the party Secretary, Diso-Chiranchi Ward, Hon. Kabiru Zubairu who commended the Governor for his laudable projects on infrastructure, urban renewal, health, education and economic empowerment.

“I wish to concur with His Excellency on the lingering crisis in our party, though we are trying our best to contain it, but we have no option than to accept the resignation of a one and most performing Governor of the NNPP.”

 

Signed
Sunusi Bature Dawakin Tofa,
Director General,
Media and Publicity,
Government House, Kano

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Oluwafemi hails Tinubu’s ambassadorial postings, urges driven agenda for Nigeria’s key mission

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Sir Victor Oluwafemi, KJW, a leading international development expert, media mogul, and Isle of Man-based member of the Nigerian diaspora, has commended President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, GCFR, for approving the posting of ambassador designates to strategic foreign missions, describing the decision as a timely step towards repositioning Nigeria’s diplomacy for measurable national value.

Oluwafemi, the principal architect of Policy as a Platform (PaaP) and Results as a Service (RaaS), said Nigeria’s missions must now adopt a modern delivery discipline that converts goodwill into outcomes. He explained that *PaaP* is a structured approach for translating national priorities into clear mission workflows and service standards, while RaaS  is a quarterly scorecard system for tracking results, including partnerships secured, investment leads progressed, trade outcomes, and improvements in diaspora and consular service delivery.

“Diplomacy must be more than protocol. It must translate into investment pipelines, trade opportunities, diaspora confidence, and a reputation lift that is backed by delivery,” Oluwafemi said.

He urged the newly appointed envoys, particularly the ambassador-designate to the United States, to adopt a clear three-point agenda that can be applied across Washington, London, and Paris, while recognising that Washington remains Nigeria’s most strategic theatre for investment mobilisation and diaspora confidence building.

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Three priority actions for immediate activation

1. Establish an embassy-convened Diaspora and investment council.
Oluwafemi advised each mission to inaugurate a structured council bringing together diaspora leaders, business chambers, institutional partners, and credible investors, supported by a quarterly calendar and committee mandates. He said this will institutionalise engagement, reduce fragmentation, and create a permanent platform for mobilisation.

2. Launch an annual flagship investment and diaspora conference with a Deal Room.

He called for a signature annual conference hosted by each mission, anchored in a Deal Room that showcases vetted opportunities, matches partners, and tracks post-event progress. For the United States, he recommended a Nigeria–US Diaspora Prosperity Conference and Deal Room in Washington, DC, designed to convert goodwill into bankable pipelines and sustained investment momentum.

3. Publish a quarterly mission results scorecard under the RaaS discipline
Oluwafemi said every mission should publish a simple quarterly scorecard tracking measurable outputs, including partnerships secured, investment enquiries progressed, trade and export facilitation outcomes, diaspora engagement metrics, and service improvements. He noted that transparent reporting will strengthen credibility and distinguish Nigeria’s diplomacy as outcomes-led.

“Washington should become the benchmark mission by institutionalising PaaP-style delivery workflows and RaaS scorecard reporting, while London and Paris drive the same discipline through their own strategic corridors,” he added.

The Presidency announced that President Tinubu approved Ambassador Ayodele Oke as the ambassador designate to France, Retired Colonel Lateef Kayode Are as the ambassador designate to the United States of America, and Ambassador Amin Mohammed Dalhatu as the high commissioner designate to the United Kingdom.

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National Grid Collapses for First Time in 2026

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By Yusuf Danjuma Yunusa

Nigeria’s national power grid experienced a total collapse on Friday, January 23, 2026 the first such failure this year. Data from the Nigerian Independent System Operator (NISO) confirmed that power generation plunged to zero megawatts (MW) by 1:00 PM.

As a result, load allocation to all 11 electricity distribution companies (DisCos) dropped to zero MW. Affected DisCos include: Abuja, Benin, Eko, Enugu, Ibadan, Ikeja, Jos, Kaduna, Kano, Port Harcourt, and Yola.

This incident follows a pattern of recurring grid instability throughout 2025, during which multiple system collapses were recorded—the last occurring on December 29. These repeated failures persist despite ongoing upgrades intended to enhance national grid capacity and reliability.

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The collapse comes shortly after the Niger Delta Power Holding Company (NDPHC) announced the restoration of an additional 450 MW to the grid. This followed scheduled maintenance on the Geregu National Integration Power Project (NIPP) plant, which was expected to boost overall supply.

In related developments, NISO had partnered with the West African Power Pool Information and Coordination Centre (WAPP-ICC) in November 2025 to conduct synchronization tests between Nigeria’s grid and the wider West African power network a initiative aimed at improving regional energy security and resilience.

The latest collapse raises renewed concerns over the fragility of Nigeria’s electricity infrastructure and its impact on economic and daily activities.

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