By Suleiman Abdullahi Gashuwa

Suleimanasuleiman476@gmail.com

As Kano populace describe their politics in Hausa language “Siyasar Kano, Sai Kano” has proven of what we are seeing today in the political landscape of the state is a replica of what might happen in the 2027 come general election.

it’s no more news that Kano State, a key political centre in Nigeria, has been significantly influenced by two to three persons i.e. Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso, and former governor and now APC national Chairman Abdullahi Umar Ganduje. Their longstanding dominance is now facing challenges, suggesting a potential shift in the political landscape by 2027.

Kwankwaso and Ganduje’s adversary as its stands has left Kano states political atmosphere in a tensed and uncertainty of the state future, which many are of the opinion it’s time to either they address their grievances or what is happening in the state will lead to the emergence of fresh Dark Horses to change the narratives.

Kwankwaso and Ganduje’s strained relationship has led to factionalism, and is now weakening their influence and opening doors for new political figures, and led to the agitation for the emergence of new younger and fresher politicians through social media and grassroots efforts, challenging the Kwankwaso, Shekarau and Ganduje’s dominance that lead Kano to the state it founds itself in at present, with fresh ideas.

Economic challenges and corruption have led to voter fatigue, increasing demands for accountability and effective governance.

The recent Dan Bello’s revelations of various degree of corruption involving the former Kano state local government commissioner Murtala Sule Garo and Ganduje’s wife Hafsat Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, and Kwankwaso’s Nephew Garba Kwankwaso has nature and increase the need for change of the narratives in Kano politics.

Thuggery and increase in number youth going into drug abuse, has left many calling for the emergence of fresh and dark horses who will reform Kano, and revive morality and curb the menace thuggery has caused for decades in the state.

As the 2027 elections approach, the political dynamics in Kano are expected to evolve, especially the crisis likely to be faced by the top three political parties in the state.

Despite been the main opposition party in Kano,, the APC has its internal crisis, which will later expose itself, and might consume the party, and make it lose its influence in upcoming elections.

Having strong Figures growing their Ambitions as governors come 2027, the race is expected to be tough, with Ganduje likely to be at the centre wanting to influence the parties flag bearer, which posed a great treat to the party.

Kano North Powerful Horses:

Kano north might likely be the nerve centre of crisis for the APC in Kano state with powerful politicians likely to contest for the 2027 gubernatorial election.

As various powerful figures within the party assert their ambitions, Ganduje’s ability to maintain control may diminish. The conflicts and rivalries can erode his support base, as loyalty might shift towards emerging leaders who promise change or new opportunities.

The internal crisis within the APC could significantly weaken Abdullahi Ganduje’s longstanding influence in Kano politics because of the tactics implored by Barau Jibrin, Murtal Sule Garo, Abdulahi Tijjani Muhammad Gwarzo.

For instance Barau Jibrin (Maliya), who is Nigeria’s Deputy Senate President, has been fostering his political ambitions since 2023. Till then his influence and aspirations may lead to friction within the party, especially if his goals conflict with those of other prominent figures.

The growing power and ambitions of figures like Barau Jibrin may overshadow Ganduje’s influence, leading to a decline in his ability to dictate party dynamics and candidate selection.

Barau Jibrin’s role at the national level provides him with broader political connections and influence, which can be leveraged to gain support within the party, especially with Ganduje out as the APC National Chairman. Though the duos are currently on the same page and interest but only time will tell.

Barau’s potential to appeal to younger and disillusioned voters through fresh perspectives and policies aligns with the current demand for change in Kano. Age has been on his side, and carrying youth along he has a chance of Becoming the dark horse.

But has a great challenge of his long term rival Murtala Sule Garo from the same Kabo Local government, the fight will be very tough for Barau. Because Murtala has been among the three persons funding the APC at state level. He has also empowered many individuals from different category which made him a deciding factor in the coming race.

There are high tendencies that if Barau emerges the gubernatorial candidate for APC, Garo may be forced to leave the APC, because no matter what, with Barau as Governor, no senator will come out from same local government from Kano north, and that leaves him with no various options.

If Murtala Garo’s candidacy, could either split the vote or force strategic alliances, even though speculations has it that he might potentially defecting to the PDP due to his familial ties with Atiku Abubakar, a issues which stirred interest in Kano’s political scene.

If these rumours were to materialize, Garo’s move could have significant implications for both the NNPP and the APC, and more impact to Barau Jibrin.

For the PDP, Garo’s defection could serve as a much-needed boost, potentially reinvigorating the party’s presence in Kano. His influence and connections could attract disillusioned voters from the APC and even some from the NNPP, enhancing the PDP’s status as a credible opposition.

His relationship with Atiku could also facilitate strategic alliances and resource mobilization, making the PDP and Atiku Abubakar’s presidential ambition bid a more formidable force in the upcoming elections.

Conversely, Garo’s departure from the APC would represent a considerable loss for the party. As a significant player within the APC, his exit could weaken the party’s structure in Kano, especially if he takes loyal supporters with him.

This could create a power vacuum that rivals, particularly the NNPP, would be keen to exploit. The APC would need to reassess its strategies to maintain its influence in the region and prevent further erosion of its base.

Another top possible contender is the state minister for Housing Dr Abdullahi Tijjani Muhammad Gwarzo (Ruwa Baba), who Barau floors during the APC primary that returned him back to the assembly in 2015.

T Gwarzo has been a gubernatorial candidate under CAN which was where he gained his close relationship with the then presidential candidate and Nigeria’s current president Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

With him at the centre and the desperation of Barau Jibrin to maintain his control over the votes in Gwarzo local government, and Kano North he still needs to strategize and look at options to work ahead of them.

Apparently, Dr. Nasiru Yusuf Gawuna having contested for the governorship previously, Gawuna is likely to re-contest. His candidacy could clash with a lot of interests from various quarters because of how he enjoins the overwhelming support if Abdullahi Umar Ganduje in the previous election, thought unconfirmed reports says that he might be forced to contest for the Kano senatorial senator, for fears that he might not be accepted by Kano populace, and until now he hasn’t gotten a federal appointment, which many sees it as a means of manoeuvring him out of the race tactically.

Coming in is Hon Baffa Babba DanAgundi who now occupies the position of the director General of the national centre for Productivity and he hails from Kano Central, he is positioning himself as a potential running mate for any gubernatorial candidate.

His strategic positioning could create alliances or rivalries, depending on the dynamics and support he garners. But he might face serious opposition from many party angles because of stepping on many toes that will rather not having him as a deputy

Each option presents both opportunities and challenges for the respective parties, underscoring the fluidity and unpredictability of the region’s political dynamics.

The NNPP , Kwankwaso, Corruption and other rumbles:

Coming in to the internal crisis brewing within the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) which multifaceted and poses significant challenges to its dominance in Kano.

Kwankwaso control factor remains a critical point, his influence shapes party dynamics. His leadership is now under scrutiny due to corruption scandals involving himself at the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission EFCC, his close relatives and some key officials in Abba Kabir Yusuf’s government, which could undermine public trust and party integrity, from Kano populace.

Furthermore, the NNPP is currently facing a potential defection of prominent figures like Kawu Sumaila and Al-Hassan Rurum because of their different views on the new Kano Emirate law, and accusation of been sidelined on things related to Kano and decisions taking within the party at state levels, which of allowed to leave could weaken the party’s structure and support base.

Their discontent reflects broader dissatisfaction within the party, exacerbated by perceived sidelining of influential members such as Ali Madakin Gini who is the minority leader of the House of Representatives. This marginalization could alienate important factions and erode loyalty among supporters and even him decamping back to the APC especially with his relationship with Barau Jibrin as In-laws.

With only a year remaining to solidify its position and execute various projects to showcase for a re-election by the state governor Abba Kabir Yusuf, the NNPP faces an uphill battle. The combination of internal strife, corruption allegations, and key defections could hinder its effectiveness and electoral prospects in Kano. If not addressed, these issues may lead to a significant decline in the party’s influence, complicating efforts to maintain a stronghold in the region as political dynamics evolve.

Equally one thing that has starts to manifest if the possibility of bigger crisis within the NNPP after the local governments elections. There have been speculations that many chairmanship aspirants where not endorsed by Kwankwaso, and that Kwankwaso anointed persons loyal to him which many sees that it might jeopardised the parties future.

The Tootles Bull dog fighting for survival:
The crisis within the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) has further weakened its influence in Kano politics, allowing other parties like the APC to gain ground. Key figures such as Aminu Wali, Ibrahim Shekarau, Yunusa Dangwani, and Ibrahim Littles are engaged in a power struggle that has fragmented the party and diluted its effectiveness as the primary opposition.

Despite having notable leaders, the PDP’s inability to present a cohesive front has led to a perception of disarray. The ongoing rivalry among these influential figures not only hampers strategic decision-making but also alienates potential supporters. Each leader’s quest for dominance often overshadows collective goals, making it difficult for the PDP to mobilize effectively.

The internal crises faced by the PDP, APC, and NNPP could indeed pave the way for a political revolution in Kano, potentially leading to significant changes in the political landscape. As dissatisfaction grows within these established parties, disillusioned voters may seek alternatives that better address their needs and aspirations.

Despite these analysis only time can tell, what will happen in Kano state politics, with all presidential contenders eyeing to control the state due to the densely concentrated votes there .

As its slogan by its town criers “Kano ta Dabo, Jalla Babbar Hausa, ko da me ka zo am Fika”.

By Aminu Umar

The first generation of Nigerian governors during the 1999 transition of General Abdulsalami Abubakar completed their tenures in 2007. Most of them retired honorably, without being heard teleguiding their successors.

Some anointed candidates who became governors easily revolted against their godfathers in the post-1999 transition of 2007, while other states were taken over by the opposition.

As a bonafide citizen of Kano, one of the most politically sagacious states in Nigeria, I can say the state has been very fortunate in determining who governs it. That is why in 2003, the people voted out Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, the political godfather of Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf, and elected Malam Ibrahim Shekarau. By the time Shekarau finished his term in 2011, his political godson, Malam Salihu Sagir Takai, did not survive the hammer of Kano’s electorate, ending that era of political godfatherism. Again, they gave Governor Abba’s political godfather, Engineer Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, a second chance.

In the 2015 elections, swept by the APC wave across Nigeria, the APC anointed candidate from the Kwankwasiyya camp, and then Deputy Governor of Kano State, Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, won the election by a landslide.

By March 2016, Governor Abdullahi Umar Ganduje declared a political conflict against his former boss, Kwankwaso, allowing Ganduje to rule the state on his own terms. However, after Ganduje’s blunders as governor for eight years, Kano’s electorate saw an opportunity to send a message by voting out his anointed candidates, Nasiru Gawuna and Murtala Sule Garo, in the 2023 general elections.

Now, under the leadership of Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf, the Kwankwasiyya government is in power once again. However, keen political observers understand that Governor Abba is ruling the state under the tight grip of his political godfather, Engineer Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, the national leader of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP).

Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf was Kwankwaso’s personal assistant for a long time before being appointed Commissioner of Works and Housing when Kwankwaso returned as governor in 2011. Fearing a revolt like he experienced with Ganduje, Kwankwaso selected his loyal PA and in-law to become governor.

Now, as Governor Abba enters the last lap of his first term, reports indicate that the governor does not have full control over the state’s affairs. Followers of investigative journalist Danbello are aware of the embarrassing controversy surrounding the procurement of drugs for the 44 local governments. Millions of naira were allegedly diverted to the Ministry of Local Government, led by Comrade Aminu Abdulsalam Gwarzo, who doubles as Deputy Governor.

In a shocking public confession during the Novomed contract controversy, Governor Abba admitted he had no knowledge of the funds being diverted. Imagine, millions of naira were diverted without the knowledge of the state’s chief executive.

It took the intervention of the state’s Anti-Corruption Commission to investigate the Novomed saga, summoning all accused parties, including the caretaker chairmen of local governments and the niece of the NNPP national leader, Musa Garba Musa.

What has further fueled suspicion is that Musa Garba Musa approached the courts to halt his multiple trials by national anti-corruption agencies such as the ICPC and EFCC.

Indeed, if Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf wants another term in 2027, he must break free from the chains of political godfatherism. The way things are going, it seems Kwankwaso is exercising undue influence over political decisions, reducing Governor Abba to a mere deputy in his own administration.

Since the start of Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf’s administration, critical political meetings determining Kano’s fate have been held at Kwankwaso’s Miller Road residence instead of the Government House.

With local government elections slated for October 30, 2024, it has emerged that Senator Kwankwaso and Deputy Governor Aminu Abdussalam will decide the NNPP’s flagbearers, bypassing Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf, the constitutionally recognized leader of the state.

Reports suggest that most current caretaker chairmen will be retained, not by the governor’s choice but by the Deputy Governor, with Kwankwaso’s full backing, further eroding the governor’s authority.

If Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf does not assert his independence and give Kwankwaso the “Fubara treatment”—like Nyesom Wike’s political godson did in Rivers State—his powers will continue to diminish. Kano’s tradition of independent politics, where governors break free from godfathers and work for the people, needs to be revived.

With his election as Governor of Kano State, Governor Abba enjoys the goodwill of the people of Kano, and they are sympathetic to his cause of repositioning the state. However, undue interference and influence from the NNPP’s national leader will definitely cost him his second term in office, which every concerned citizen of the state is worried about.

There are many examples in Nigeria where godsons break away from their godfathers, and nothing happens. Look at the Governor of Edo State, Godwin Obaseki, who, after falling out with his godfather Oshiomhole and defecting to the PDP from the APC, won fairly and squarely and is even about to finish his second term.

The Fubara-Wike feud is also taking an interesting political dimension. The Chris Ngige-Uba saga in Anambra in 2003 was another interesting scenario, in which Chris Ngige saved himself from political oblivion, and there are many more examples.

Aminu Umar is a concerned citizen of Kano

In a recent development, the Maliya Media Reporters have raised concerns over the dissemination of fake news allegedly spread by Sanusi Bature Dawakin Tofa, the spokesperson of Kano State Governor, Abba Kabir Yusuf. The controversy centers around a story titled “Ganduje Loses Grip As 44 Former Council Chairmen Defect to Barau APC Faction,” which was posted on the WhatsApp platform, Kano News Room, by Tofa. The media group claims the story is baseless, misleading, and a deliberate act of mischief, likely carried out on behalf of the Kano State Governor.

According to a statement released by Comrade Adamu Abdullahi Karkasara, Chairman of Maliya Media Reporters, a screenshot of Tofa’s post indicates that the story was shared at 4:32 pm on Friday, with a directive for journalists to attribute it to anonymous sources. Karkasara argued that if Tofa was the source of the story, he should have issued it as an official statement from the Kano Government House, complete with his signature, rather than resorting to anonymous sources.

The Maliya Media Reporters commended the professionalism of Kano journalists, who refrained from spreading the unverified story, upholding the ethical standards of journalism. The group also urged editors and publishers in both online and traditional media to be vigilant against such fake news.

To clarify the facts, the media group noted that on Thursday, former chairmen from the 44 Local Government Areas (LGAs) of Kano State, led by Alhaji Muhammad Baffa Takai, visited Abuja to meet with the Deputy President of the Senate, Senator Barau I Jibrin. The purpose of the meeting was to congratulate Senator Barau on the establishment of the North West Development Commission (NWDC) and to express their gratitude to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for signing the NWDC bill into law.

The media group emphasized that no discussions about the APC or any political party took place during the meeting, which focused solely on attracting more development projects to Kano State.

In light of these revelations, the Maliya Media Reporters called on Tofa to desist from spreading false information that could sow discord among political leaders in Kano. The group urged leaders across all political parties to work together for the development of Kano and Nigeria, in alignment with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda.

Finally, the group expressed hope that Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf would intervene and caution Tofa against further dissemination of fake news, emphasizing that unity and collective effort are crucial in addressing the challenges facing Kano State.