By Umar Hamisu Kofar Na’isa

It very dangerous to trigger war on Niger Republic because it will result in serious political and socio-economic consequences said Senator Shehu Sani.

Speaking as a discussant at a Roundtable Discussion on Niger Coup and ECOWAS Intervention: Perspective on Multi-sectoral implications for Nigeria organized by Mambayya House, Aminu Kano Center for Democratic Studies, Bayero University, Kano on Wednesday, 16 August, 2023. Shehu Sani opposed the use of Nigeria’s military to invade Niger Republic with the objective of regime change.

He added that, currently there are over half million of Nigeria’s nationales who have been displaced by Boko Haram, ISWAP and bandits in Northern Nigeria who are hosted in Niger Republic, therefore, Nigeria should not take the risk of triggering war on Niger Republic.

Senator Shehu Sani lamented that, the states that are bordering Niger Republic will come under heat in the event of war. He said the forum wishes brings into notice of both ECOWAS and AU that whenever democracy come under attack either through rigged election or violation of fundamental human rights or breach of the constitution, the duo remains silent. He also reiterated that, coup can only be prevented by making sure that our democracy is a game that is played according to law.

The radical activist and politician added that, the forum is to emphasized on the consequences of war and to state clearly that they are not in support of military rule and to also call on the cirizenry to continue to apply pressure on the government because it is clear that the government is under pressure from France and United States to initiate war, therefore, the government must be mounted with pressure to avoid going to war.

Senator Sani also commended the Senate of the Federal Republic of Nigeria over the rejection of President Tinubu’s proposal for military intervention in Niger Republic. He added that, “when you have a nation that is next to your border, any war will be catastrophic and disastrous to your own country, therefore if this war is triggered, you know when it start but you don’t know its end”.

He finally call for putting pressure on the junta to restore democracy not by switching off the light, but by other actions that will only affect the heads of the junta and support civil groups in Niger in order to restore democracy.

In his presentation on economic implications of the proposed war, Dr. Abdusslam Muhammad Kani, an Economist with Sa’adatu Rimi University of Education, Kano said Nigeria is a key player in ECOWAS because the regional bloc is around four hundred million people and Nigeria is over half of the population of ECOWAS, so the war can lead to devastation in our trade and commerce relationships.

Dr. Kani added that, Nigeria is going to loose investors confidence because ideally, no investor that will invest in an economy which is under military intervention whereby it will lead to reduction in revenue as it witnessed a heightened inflationary pressure due to closure of borders with Niger Republic and other ECOWAS member states.

According to him one of the key implication is that Nigeria’s military defence budjet will be high which will add burden to the country’s debt profile, inflationary pressure leading to too much unemployment, poverty and diversion of the country’s scarce resources that should have been channeled education and other strategic sectors of the economy.

The economists recommended that peaceful dialog should be sustained to ensure peaceful resolution and to restore constitutional order in Niger Republic. He opined that military intervention is a violation of cardinal principles why ECOWAS is established with is promotion of economic integration or cooperation among West Africa.

Also speaking, Amb. Ibrahim Wayya, The President, Kano Civil Society Forum, KCSF stated that the governing system we are practicing in Africa is not really fit to the continent and its not commiserate to our own need and local content. He added that, the democracy that we copied and pasted from England and US is not working.

He further said up till now there are issues of election rigging and stealing the legitimacy of the elected ones and lots af criminality is been committed on the electoral process meanwhile the electoral umpire could not conduct election that is credible and acceptable.

In his address, the Director of Mambayya House, Professor, Habu Muhammad said the rationale behind organizing the Roundtable Discussion was to sensitize Nigerians particularly the Nigerian government about the sectoral implications waging war on a next door neighbour country like Niger Republic.

Professor Habu said it is wrong for ECOWAS to come overnight as a result change over of government which for the attention and perception of all participants, it is something that has to do with internal affairs and the regional bloc should not delve into the affairs of Niger Republic or even undertake military operation in the county.

The political scientist reiterates the need for becoming more conscious and decisive in terms of managing the the crisis through diplomatic processes. He added that these diplomatic and political processes are more constructive, far-reaching and realistic to undertake rather than military action.

The round-table discussion got the participants that cut across the academia, Women groups, Civil
Society Organizations (CSOs), Non-governmental Organizations (NGOs), professional groups,
Security agencies, Labour unions, public commentators, students and the media among others. Discussants and participants critically discussed the current developments in Niger Republic, its multi-sectoral implications for Nigeria and the unity of the ECOWAS. However at the end of the sessions, a communique is issued which stated clearly the resolution, and recommendations for Nigeria, ECOWAS and all other stakeholders at the international level.