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2023 Presidential Elections and the Battle Between Two Categories of Northern Elders

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_ By Ibraheem A.Waziri

1. Every election season in Nigeria, comes with its provoking premises and issues! This time around, apart from the usual North and South, Muslims and Christians divides that are often, most prominent than party affiliations; a new dynamic which has not yet caught public attention, has been added up to the mix. The struggle to maintain relevance between two different categories of Northern eldership or leadership. These two categories, in the realm, are separated primarily by the order of generational cohort (GC) in age!

2. Falling back to the scholars in anthropology, we learn that a GC is usually pegged at 15-20 years. All persons born within such intervals are regarded to more or less, belong to the same groupings defined by same circumstances; social, economic, cultural events, and would likely share some core elements in perspectives, tastes and life preferences.

3. Since the completion of the taking over of Northern Nigeria by the British in 1903, a generation of who will eventually become Nigerians, from the territory, began to be given birth to, that same year. Therefore the first generational cohorts (GC) of Northern Nigerians can be said to be those born between 1903 and 1919. That is if the mode at which boys usually reach puberty is considered as the norm to be 16 years!

4. The second GC came between 1919-35. The third was between 1936-51. This GC is the one that did 1967 military counter coup and prosecuted the then Nigerian civil war from the Northern Nigerian side and led by 2nd GC member, General Yakubu Gowon as Head of Nigerian state.

5. One can be right to say that the 3rd GC of Northern Nigerians has been influencing, politics and governance policy not only in the North but in Nigeria, since that time till the present! The politicians among them, intellectuals and business owners have been holding the region at its nape!

PDP Presidential Rally:Atiku To Inaugurate 500 Capacity Quranic School In Kano

6.After the 2019 elections, some pundits among us have been harping about the fate of the North come 2023; being it obvious that the 3rd GC are threatened by senesces and therefore are very weak. The assumption is they will reach a consensus among themselves to identify able group of successors that they could handover the affairs of thè North and fade themselves into retirement; having put in their best for about 57 years now! The longest any GC have been there and probably would ever be.

7 None of us thought that the successor cohort, the 4th GC, born between 1952-67, will need to necessarily put up a fight to dislodge the 3rd GC from the power circle ànd forcefully take over like what is happening now in the ruling party.

8. However, since the statement made in Abeakuta on the 25th of January, 2023, in a campaign rally, by Asiwàju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the All Progressive Congress’ (APC) party presidential candidate; to the effect that there are saboteurs in the Presidency – which ironically is occupied by his party – who are against his emergence as winner of the 2023 presidential Elections slated to hold 25th of February, 2023.

9.Bola Ahmed Tinubu, though a Southerner, enjoys the support of the 14 of the 19 Northern Governors, who are from the ruling party. 11 of them also belong to 4th GC. 1 belongs (Borno State) to 5th GC.

*10. Kaduna State Governor, an outspoken element among them, has granted series of interviews on the 1st and 2nd February 2023. To a number of media Houses including BBC, TVC, in both Hausa and English, implying that, some 3rd GC Northern influencers around President Muhammadu Buhari ( who is himself a member of thè same cohort), as plotting to work against their candidate! By following other means take sure a member of the 3rd GC, Atiku Abubakar of the opposition People Democratic Party (PDP) and a Northerner, emerges as the winner of the 2023 presidential Elections!

11. The ultimate question now, apparently, is whether, the people in the North will agree to prolong the tenure of leadership and eldership of the 3rd GC Northerners, adding another 8 years to their 57 years, making it 65 long years. Or in the alternative, they want to handover the realms of their leadership and eldership to the 4th GC Northerners; to bring their own uniqueness unto the table early enough.

12. What is obvious is the 4th GC Northerners, who were born during the years building up to the civil war to its end, have different perspectives and arguments about how Northerners should see themselves and live with their neighbours in Nigeria. They don’t view Southerners with the kind of suspicion the 3rd GC Northerners think of them. It is why in the first place they would resolve to fulfill the unwritten agreement of power shift to the South in 2023.

13. Some members of the 5th GC of Northerners, either, those born between 1968-83, would appreciate seeing a new perspective taking control of the space and atmosphere of Northern Nigeria come 25th February 2023. It will guarantee an experiment with fresher perspectives that are sure catalyst to positive change and comprehensive progress not the one same old perspective that has dominated the space for 57 years.

14. Also it is only when the 4th GC Northerners move a little higher in the ladder, that the 5th GC Northerners, post civil war generation, will enjoy certain degree of influence at some social plane. The same thing with the 6th GC Northerners, born between 1984-1998, military rule generation. Also the 7th GC Northerners, born between 1999 – 2015, Fourth Republic, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) rule generation. Each movement on the ladder creates opportunities of growth and stability for others to play their role and display their God given talent for the benefits of all.

15. These, can be among reasons why the majority of Northern Nigerians would consider lending their support to the 4th GC Northern leaders, in their bid to take control now. Politicians and bureaucrats like Elrufai, intellectuals and opinion leaders like Dr. Aliyu Tilde, Mahmud Jega; Abdulaziz Abdulaziz of the 5th GC and a host of other businessmen and religious leaders, deserve this chance to move us to another level of life changing perspective with Asiwàju Bola Ahmed Tinubu Nigerian leadership come 25th February, 2023!

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Politics

Uncovered: How APC Caucus Award Councillorship Ticket After ₦1.7M Payment

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In a surprising development, the All Progressives Congress (APC) Caucus in Dorayi Ward, Gwale Local Government Area, Kano State, have come under scrutiny for their method of selecting a councillorship candidate.

Following the screening process, nine candidates were disqualified, leaving only two contenders for the position. According to reliable sources, when the APC ward Caucas were unable to reach a consensus on who should represent the party, they proposed an unusual solution.

The two remaining candidates were given 24 hours to deposit ₦2 million each into the account of the Caucas Chairman.

The source said “The following morning one of the candidates paid ₦1.7 million into the Caucas chairman’s account. Despite not meeting the full ₦2 million demand, the Caucas reportedly awarded him the councillorship ticket.”

This decision has sparked widespread discontent among other aspirants and party members, with many expressing outrage over the alleged monetization of the selection process.

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Some candidates, who were excluded from the race, are reportedly planning to lodge formal complaints with the Kano State APC Chairman, arguing that the procedure undermines the principles of fairness and merit in the party.

“This is not how a democratic process should work,” said one of the aspirants who requested anonymity. “We are supposed to serve the people, not buy our way into the office. The leadership of our party must intervene and address this issue before it damages the party’s reputation.”

However, the chairman of the screening committee Ado Gambo Jaen confirmed that the committee requested 2 million naira from each of the two candidates, Ibrahim Adamu and Aliyu Ali Sango, to assess their readiness for the councillorship position.

While submitting their report to the APC Gwale local chairman, Ado Gambo Jaen said “We requested the money to see who among the candidates is truly ready to take on the role.” Ibrahim Adamu paid 1.7 million naira, securing his spot as the councillorship candidate.

The controversy highlights growing concerns about internal party politics within the APC, especially at the grassroots level, where money is increasingly seen as a deciding factor in elections.

As the dust settles, all eyes will be on how the Kano State party leadership responds to the allegations and whether any further action will be taken.

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2027: To Destabilize the PDP, Wike Is Rooting for a Makinde/Fintiri Ticket – Tudun Wada

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Comrade Adnan Tudunwada
Adnan Mukhtar Tudun Wada

 

By Adnan Mukhtar Tudun Wada

The attempt to destabilize the opposition PDP by Wike and his people is not good for democracy. Wike is using Damagum to actualise his mission which will fail in the soonest. Damagum’s days as Acting National Chairman of PDP are numbered, this is clear.

All the party’s heavyweights are strategising to take control of the party by doing everything possible that will not plunge the party into a series of litigation.

The idea of the Wike camp at the end is to present Makinde as a Presidential candidate and Fintiri as Vice President.

Atiku as a disciple of Shehu Yar’Adua is a master strategist. Wike knows this better and if he is doubting Waziri’s capacity, he should come back and contest again. Politics is not about making noise or being arrogant, is all about being strategic to become a winner at the end.

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Damagum and other members of the NWC who are doing the bidding of Nyesom Wike should enjoy themselves for now before the convention of the party.

They want litigation and nobody will open the door for them to destroy the party.

Tudun Wada is a young PDP member from Kano state

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Kano State Politics Faces Major Shift as Kwankwaso and Ganduje’s Influence Declines

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By Suleiman Abdullahi Gashuwa

Suleimanasuleiman476@gmail.com

As Kano populace describe their politics in Hausa language “Siyasar Kano, Sai Kano” has proven of what we are seeing today in the political landscape of the state is a replica of what might happen in the 2027 come general election.

it’s no more news that Kano State, a key political centre in Nigeria, has been significantly influenced by two to three persons i.e. Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso, and former governor and now APC national Chairman Abdullahi Umar Ganduje. Their longstanding dominance is now facing challenges, suggesting a potential shift in the political landscape by 2027.

Kwankwaso and Ganduje’s adversary as its stands has left Kano states political atmosphere in a tensed and uncertainty of the state future, which many are of the opinion it’s time to either they address their grievances or what is happening in the state will lead to the emergence of fresh Dark Horses to change the narratives.

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Kwankwaso and Ganduje’s strained relationship has led to factionalism, and is now weakening their influence and opening doors for new political figures, and led to the agitation for the emergence of new younger and fresher politicians through social media and grassroots efforts, challenging the Kwankwaso, Shekarau and Ganduje’s dominance that lead Kano to the state it founds itself in at present, with fresh ideas.

Economic challenges and corruption have led to voter fatigue, increasing demands for accountability and effective governance.

The recent Dan Bello’s revelations of various degree of corruption involving the former Kano state local government commissioner Murtala Sule Garo and Ganduje’s wife Hafsat Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, and Kwankwaso’s Nephew Garba Kwankwaso has nature and increase the need for change of the narratives in Kano politics.

Thuggery and increase in number youth going into drug abuse, has left many calling for the emergence of fresh and dark horses who will reform Kano, and revive morality and curb the menace thuggery has caused for decades in the state.

As the 2027 elections approach, the political dynamics in Kano are expected to evolve, especially the crisis likely to be faced by the top three political parties in the state.

Despite been the main opposition party in Kano,, the APC has its internal crisis, which will later expose itself, and might consume the party, and make it lose its influence in upcoming elections.

Having strong Figures growing their Ambitions as governors come 2027, the race is expected to be tough, with Ganduje likely to be at the centre wanting to influence the parties flag bearer, which posed a great treat to the party.

Kano North Powerful Horses:

Kano north might likely be the nerve centre of crisis for the APC in Kano state with powerful politicians likely to contest for the 2027 gubernatorial election.

As various powerful figures within the party assert their ambitions, Ganduje’s ability to maintain control may diminish. The conflicts and rivalries can erode his support base, as loyalty might shift towards emerging leaders who promise change or new opportunities.

The internal crisis within the APC could significantly weaken Abdullahi Ganduje’s longstanding influence in Kano politics because of the tactics implored by Barau Jibrin, Murtal Sule Garo, Abdulahi Tijjani Muhammad Gwarzo.

For instance Barau Jibrin (Maliya), who is Nigeria’s Deputy Senate President, has been fostering his political ambitions since 2023. Till then his influence and aspirations may lead to friction within the party, especially if his goals conflict with those of other prominent figures.

The growing power and ambitions of figures like Barau Jibrin may overshadow Ganduje’s influence, leading to a decline in his ability to dictate party dynamics and candidate selection.

Barau Jibrin’s role at the national level provides him with broader political connections and influence, which can be leveraged to gain support within the party, especially with Ganduje out as the APC National Chairman. Though the duos are currently on the same page and interest but only time will tell.

Barau’s potential to appeal to younger and disillusioned voters through fresh perspectives and policies aligns with the current demand for change in Kano. Age has been on his side, and carrying youth along he has a chance of Becoming the dark horse.

But has a great challenge of his long term rival Murtala Sule Garo from the same Kabo Local government, the fight will be very tough for Barau. Because Murtala has been among the three persons funding the APC at state level. He has also empowered many individuals from different category which made him a deciding factor in the coming race.

There are high tendencies that if Barau emerges the gubernatorial candidate for APC, Garo may be forced to leave the APC, because no matter what, with Barau as Governor, no senator will come out from same local government from Kano north, and that leaves him with no various options.

If Murtala Garo’s candidacy, could either split the vote or force strategic alliances, even though speculations has it that he might potentially defecting to the PDP due to his familial ties with Atiku Abubakar, a issues which stirred interest in Kano’s political scene.

If these rumours were to materialize, Garo’s move could have significant implications for both the NNPP and the APC, and more impact to Barau Jibrin.

For the PDP, Garo’s defection could serve as a much-needed boost, potentially reinvigorating the party’s presence in Kano. His influence and connections could attract disillusioned voters from the APC and even some from the NNPP, enhancing the PDP’s status as a credible opposition.

His relationship with Atiku could also facilitate strategic alliances and resource mobilization, making the PDP and Atiku Abubakar’s presidential ambition bid a more formidable force in the upcoming elections.

Conversely, Garo’s departure from the APC would represent a considerable loss for the party. As a significant player within the APC, his exit could weaken the party’s structure in Kano, especially if he takes loyal supporters with him.

This could create a power vacuum that rivals, particularly the NNPP, would be keen to exploit. The APC would need to reassess its strategies to maintain its influence in the region and prevent further erosion of its base.

Another top possible contender is the state minister for Housing Dr Abdullahi Tijjani Muhammad Gwarzo (Ruwa Baba), who Barau floors during the APC primary that returned him back to the assembly in 2015.

T Gwarzo has been a gubernatorial candidate under CAN which was where he gained his close relationship with the then presidential candidate and Nigeria’s current president Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

With him at the centre and the desperation of Barau Jibrin to maintain his control over the votes in Gwarzo local government, and Kano North he still needs to strategize and look at options to work ahead of them.

Apparently, Dr. Nasiru Yusuf Gawuna having contested for the governorship previously, Gawuna is likely to re-contest. His candidacy could clash with a lot of interests from various quarters because of how he enjoins the overwhelming support if Abdullahi Umar Ganduje in the previous election, thought unconfirmed reports says that he might be forced to contest for the Kano senatorial senator, for fears that he might not be accepted by Kano populace, and until now he hasn’t gotten a federal appointment, which many sees it as a means of manoeuvring him out of the race tactically.

Coming in is Hon Baffa Babba DanAgundi who now occupies the position of the director General of the national centre for Productivity and he hails from Kano Central, he is positioning himself as a potential running mate for any gubernatorial candidate.

His strategic positioning could create alliances or rivalries, depending on the dynamics and support he garners. But he might face serious opposition from many party angles because of stepping on many toes that will rather not having him as a deputy

Each option presents both opportunities and challenges for the respective parties, underscoring the fluidity and unpredictability of the region’s political dynamics.

The NNPP , Kwankwaso, Corruption and other rumbles:

Coming in to the internal crisis brewing within the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) which multifaceted and poses significant challenges to its dominance in Kano.

Kwankwaso control factor remains a critical point, his influence shapes party dynamics. His leadership is now under scrutiny due to corruption scandals involving himself at the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission EFCC, his close relatives and some key officials in Abba Kabir Yusuf’s government, which could undermine public trust and party integrity, from Kano populace.

Furthermore, the NNPP is currently facing a potential defection of prominent figures like Kawu Sumaila and Al-Hassan Rurum because of their different views on the new Kano Emirate law, and accusation of been sidelined on things related to Kano and decisions taking within the party at state levels, which of allowed to leave could weaken the party’s structure and support base.

Their discontent reflects broader dissatisfaction within the party, exacerbated by perceived sidelining of influential members such as Ali Madakin Gini who is the minority leader of the House of Representatives. This marginalization could alienate important factions and erode loyalty among supporters and even him decamping back to the APC especially with his relationship with Barau Jibrin as In-laws.

With only a year remaining to solidify its position and execute various projects to showcase for a re-election by the state governor Abba Kabir Yusuf, the NNPP faces an uphill battle. The combination of internal strife, corruption allegations, and key defections could hinder its effectiveness and electoral prospects in Kano. If not addressed, these issues may lead to a significant decline in the party’s influence, complicating efforts to maintain a stronghold in the region as political dynamics evolve.

Equally one thing that has starts to manifest if the possibility of bigger crisis within the NNPP after the local governments elections. There have been speculations that many chairmanship aspirants where not endorsed by Kwankwaso, and that Kwankwaso anointed persons loyal to him which many sees that it might jeopardised the parties future.

The Tootles Bull dog fighting for survival:
The crisis within the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) has further weakened its influence in Kano politics, allowing other parties like the APC to gain ground. Key figures such as Aminu Wali, Ibrahim Shekarau, Yunusa Dangwani, and Ibrahim Littles are engaged in a power struggle that has fragmented the party and diluted its effectiveness as the primary opposition.

Despite having notable leaders, the PDP’s inability to present a cohesive front has led to a perception of disarray. The ongoing rivalry among these influential figures not only hampers strategic decision-making but also alienates potential supporters. Each leader’s quest for dominance often overshadows collective goals, making it difficult for the PDP to mobilize effectively.

The internal crises faced by the PDP, APC, and NNPP could indeed pave the way for a political revolution in Kano, potentially leading to significant changes in the political landscape. As dissatisfaction grows within these established parties, disillusioned voters may seek alternatives that better address their needs and aspirations.

Despite these analysis only time can tell, what will happen in Kano state politics, with all presidential contenders eyeing to control the state due to the densely concentrated votes there .

As its slogan by its town criers “Kano ta Dabo, Jalla Babbar Hausa, ko da me ka zo am Fika”.

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