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More Clarifications Ahead of 2023-Amir Abdul Aziz

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By: Amir Abdulazeez

 

When President Obasanjo carelessly picked Goodluck Jonathan to serve as ‘Yaradua’s potential Vice President in 2007, little did we know that the politics of picking running mates will later become complex and problematic. The death of Ummaru, ascension of Jonathan, surprise emergence of Namadi Sambo and Patrick Yakowa becoming the first Christian Civilian Governor of Kaduna State would all combine to later add more relevance to the politics of running mate selection. In 2014, APC had more headache in picking a presidential running mate than the presidential candidate himself. It took them so much time and effort that one thought they will organize a fresh convention for that purpose.

Today, the Muslim-Muslim ticket debacle is the bane of Nigerian political discourse. While clamouring for fairness and balance which are needed for a fragile system like Nigeria’s, we should also remember that from 1999 to date, no religion can claim any net gain from this Nigerian version of democracy. Ordinary followers of all religions have been victims of bad governance, even pagans. We have suffered so much so that if a pagan/pagan ticket will eradicate insecurity, fix the economy and bring development while being fair to all interests and affiliations, we should allow it. Therefore, the choice is between searching for solutions and satisfying sentiments; we seem to favour the latter.

A section of public commentators and spectators are already suggesting a walkover for Atiku Abubakar in the 2023 polls. That is the biggest complacency I have ever seen in contemporary Nigerian politics. How can you be facing a ruling party with almost 65% of political stakeholdership in the country and be expecting to have a walkover? Atiku is an institution but his successes in the last two PDP primaries is more of financial supremacy than political dominance. That aside, barring a Buhari-like scenario, Atiku will definitely make a good president. He is perhaps the only fully independent candidate with a clear and accessible blueprint since 2007. In 2011, he had a better manifesto and approach than President Goodluck Jonathan; he only lost the PDP primaries to the power of incumbency. By the way, what happened to the Jonathan 2023 candidacy?

2023 Presidential Election Should be Cancelled; It’s Already Predetermined
From 1992, this is Atiku’s 7th attempt at the Presidency with 2019 being his closest to success. Many believe 2023 is his year and so many obvious factors call for optimism in his camp. However, there are two fundamental things that may haunt Waziri; (in)consistency and (un)popularity. Buhari and Tinubu are successfully reaping the harvests of consistency and perseverance; they sticked to opposition politics all their lives. Atiku shouldve remained in opposition when he decamped to Action Congress in 2007 or shouldve remained in the ruling PDP when he decamped back in 2011. Ambition had kept him running from one place to another making him neither establishment nor anti-establishment. The second question is whether there is a single state in Nigeria which Atiku can secure one million votes or more in 2023? I hope we all remember Dr. Rabi’u Kwankwaso’s 3-K States theory?

Tinubu’s boast in Ogun State over his role in the emergence of Buhari as President needs some revisiting and clarification. For the avoidance of doubt, Muhammadu Buhari did not lose the 2003 presidential elections, it was brutally rigged to return Obasanjo for a second term. 2003 will easily enter the list of the worst elections in modern world history. In 2007, the presidential elections results were simply written, so we cant even call that election not to talk of who won or lost. I have never relied on 2003 and 2007 election figures for any research or serious analysis, because they are largely fabricated. The 2011 elections were relatively fair but at least 40% of the vote was rigged, written or simply inflated especially in the South-South and South-East.

In circumstances like these, we cannot comfortably declare Buhari a loser of all the previous elections he contested and only became a winner when he met Tinubu. It is true that 2015 was the weakest version of political Buhari, it was true that he had lost hope and that the APC merger spearheaded by Tinubu was what brought him back to life. But it is also true that so many other factors other than Tinubu contributed crucially to Buhari’s victory, one major one was the abysmal performance of Goodluck Jonathan. One thing that is however certain is that, without Tinubu’s support, it wouldve been near impossible for Buhari to emerge APC flagbearer against the financial powerhouses in Kwankwaso and Atiku.

This brings us to the argument of access to public funds as the reason why some candidates (not aspirants) are stronger than others. Supporters of a particular presidential candidate even claimed that if their man had equal access to public funds, he would be better than certain candidates. This is laughable; a debate like this will take us nowhere. Just campaign for your candidate and persuade people to vote for him. If we are talking about the abuse of peoples trust and the utilization of our commonwealth for personal political development, none of the major politicians in Nigeria will come out clean. So, let us not deceive ourselves and others.

Where are our smaller political parties who had spent most of their last four years fighting INEC over deregistration? This is a good amount of time they wouldve spent in coming together to form a strong bloc. In case we dont know, 74 of them were deregistered for failing to meet the requirements to continue to exist as political parties. Probably about 10 to 15 of the currently existing will be due for deregistration by this time next year. Instead of them to consider merging to form a decent alternative, theyll rather hang on only to be fighting a legal survival battle with INEC next year. As the strongest and largest intellectual organization in West Africa, I dont even know why ASUU is yet to form a political party or adopt any of the smaller parties to set up a path towards satisfying their own demands all by themselves instead for waiting and hoping for a hopeless Federal Government.

Why is nobody talking about the enormous task ahead of the next president whom credible international reports suggest will have to use 100% of his revenue in servicing (not repaying) debts by 2024? To execute projects or even pay salaries, the next government may have to borrow further. Nigeria is in trouble, we are drowning in the ocean of foreign debts, meanwhile we are concerned over the religion of a presidential candidate more than his ability to bring us out of this mess. Buhari has failed because Jonathan had built a solid foundation for that failure. Now he has built a worse foundation for his successor. Ladies and gentlemen, the possibility and danger of the next president irrespective of his affiliation and preparedness to economically be worse than Buhari is imminent. May God help us.

All of the political dynamics of today are closely related to that of 1999, some a bit earlier. If you have not directly experienced Nigerian political development from 1999 with a mix of some pre-1999 historical knowledge, you will find it difficult if not impossible to connect certain dots that you see today. Extensive and intensive reading may help, but politely interacting with veterans will do better. Social media where most of the political debates occur is dominated by youths who knew little or nothing pre-2011 and dont invest significant time in reading but trying to engage or even confront the same veterans that wouldve been their best opportunity at understanding the genesis of the current situation.
There are some visible changes in Nigeria’s socio-political spaces, although not new but have taken a different twist from the previous. The renewed order is the attempt to criminalize certain political choices against others. Between 2014 to 2018, discourses were dominated by hate, campaigns of calumny, fabrications and outright abuse. Today, political promoters are trying hard to make it appear that only their candidates are good enough and any other choice is treason. This is extremism, lets be careful, everything is a matter of opinion and everyone is entitled to his.

Twitter: @AmirAbdulazeez

Politics

Staying Loyal: Key to Winning Elections in Nigeria-Reno Omokri

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Obasanjo ,Yaradua and Jonathan during the May 29 2007 handover to President Yaradua

Reno Omokri

If you want to win an election in Nigeria, you can’t jump from party to party. Nobody who has done that has ever won an election at the centre in Nigeria from our amalgamation by the British in 1914 to now. Nobody! You can do so at the regional and state level, especially where your region has ethnic homogeneity. But in a pluralistic federation, you are toast if you do that.

Only those who have remained loyal to their parties have ever won elections as Presidents or Prime Ministers in Nigeria. Your party can go into coalition and merger with another party, or it can change its name and your reputation will remain intact. But when you leave your party to join another party, the people also leave you.

No matter what happens within your party, stay there and resolve the situation. Assert yourself th amere. Go from battleground to common ground. If you cannot lead your party out of a crisis, you will not be able to convince non-tribal critical thinking voters that you can lead the country out of crisis.

Tafawa Balewa was a member of the Northern Peoples Congress. He never changed parties. Shagari was a member of the National Party of Nigeria, which was an offshoot of the Northern Peoples Congress. He never changed parties.

Obasanjo, Yar’adua and Jonathan were members of the Peoples Democratic Party. They never changed parties.

Buhari was a member of the All Peoples Party, which later changed its name to the All Nigeria Peoples Party. The party eventually split, and Buhari went with the Congress for Progressive Change, which, in 2013, merged with other parties to form the All Progressives Congress.

Tinubu was a member of the Social Democratic Party, which was dissolved by Abacha in 1993. Following this, he helped found the Alliance for Democracy, which merged with other parties to form the Action Congress of Nigeria in 2006. The ACN merged with other parties to form the APC in 2013.

Nigerian Politicians should learn from history. The best predictor of the future is the past. Between now and 2027, any politician who leaves his party for another party, except where there is a merger, is just wasting his time and money if he contests for the Presidency.

A country struggling with political stability cannot afford a leader who also struggles with his own mental and political stability.

Sadly, in Nigeria, to leave your party in Presidential politics is to live in pity as a perennial candidate!

Reno Omokri is a former Adviser to President Jonathan

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When Two Kano Elephant fights, The Grass Suffers -Kabiru Anka

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By Kabiru Anka PhD.

 

The political Intrigues in Kano State in recent time can be rationalised within the dictim of the adage of “When two Elephants fight ,the Grass Suffers”.
It all began with series of litigations and media attacks aimed at former Governor of the state and the National Chairman of ALL Progressives Congress (APC) Abdullahi Umar Ganduje ostensibly by the NNPP lead State government of Abba Kabiru Yusuf

The government, using its organs gone filled multiple court cases against Governor Ganduje and his wife, creating a climate of turmoil and uncertainty in the state.

The fact that the government has taken such drastic measures, including an orchestrated suspension of Ganduje from his party at the ward level, highlights the magnitude of the crisis that has emerged at the national party level. Interest groups are now jostling to take advantage of the situation and capitalize on Ganduje’s vulnerabilities to potentially remove him from office.
However, amidst all these Intrigues is the underlying fact aimed at the demolition of the structure of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Kano State.
It didn’t stop at that , there is also the glaring evidence to stop work on all inherited projects of the former government even at great cost to tax the payers.
As a result, the political turmoil in Kano State has far-reaching implications not only for Ganduje but also for the overall stability of the APC in the state and of course the development of the people.
The power play between interest groups and the state government threatens to disrupt the political status quo and create a vacuum that could be exploited by opportunistic elements.
The situation in Kano State is a reflection of the complex and often treacherous nature of Nigerian politics. As Ganduje navigates through this storm of litigation and media attacks, it is crucial for all stakeholders to prioritize the interests of the people and work towards a resolution that upholds the democratic principles on which our society is built. Only through unity and cooperation can we overcome the challenges that lie ahead and forge a path towards a brighter future for Kano State and Nigeria as a whole than witch hunting a man who worked tirelessly for the sustainability of APC in Kano and success recorded during the last general elections.

The citizens of Kano deserve leaders who prioritize their well-being and work towards the common good, rather than engaging in power struggles and personal vendettas.
Moving forward, it is essential for all parties involved to engage in constructive dialogue and find common ground to resolve the political turmoil in Kano State. By focusing on the issues that truly matter to the people, such as infrastructure development, healthcare, education, and job creation, etc.

Ultimately, the future of Kano State rests on the ability of its leaders to rise above petty politics and prioritize the welfare of the citizens than running after a man who did his best to develop the state as governor.
Two many projects we leant have been abandoned while new ones are being flagged off. Ironically Ganduje completed many of the projects initiated by Kwankwaso. Indeed ,when two elephants fight the grass suffers.

Dr Kabiru Anka is political analysis based in Kano

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Gov. Gida-Gida and Ganduje: The Firing of Unwarranted Political Salvos-Adamu Aminu

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Former Governor Abdullahi Umar Ganduje and Successor Abba Kabir Yusuf

 

By Adamu Aminu.

It is extremely disheartening to see how recently our two elder statesmen, the Kano state Governor, His Excellency, Abba Kabir Yusif, politically known as Abba Gida-Gida, and his immediate predecessor, the ex-Kano and present APC National chairman, Dr. Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, are busy exchanging salvos directly at each other.

The exchanges of verbal brawls through their spokesmen emanated shortly after Governor Abba Kabir Yusif inaugurated two judicial commissions of inquiry to investigate cases of misappropriation of public property, political violence, and missing persons from 2015 to 2019 to 2023.

It was unfortunate; all the accusations and counter-accusations from both sides were riddled with harsh and demeaning words, deemed unrepeatable and unworthy to come from our respected leaders who are beating chests of leading Kano, the state that has reached the zenith of political maturity in the whole nation.

I was automatically dumbfounded by how the exchanged salvos and political sarcasm were randomly so directed at each other, without revisiting the fact that history never lies; someday, posterity will judge them.

This comes at a time when the warring parties should set aside their differences and make Kano their concern and priority, but they resorted to opening the doors of all blackmailing arsenals at their disposal, overtly directed at each other, without knowing that their utterances and accusations are doing more harm than good to Kano state in general.

This came at a time when our counterpart States in the South, like Lagos, Rivers, and others, have already set politics aside and deeply engaged in the execution of developmental projects for their people, but Kano, a state of whole-tenure politics, is dragging feet towards the fulfillment of promises during electioneering campaigns.

At this time when most Kano industries are not functional, there is no portable water, unemployment, poverty, hunger, and thuggery clogging the wheels of Kano’s economic development, instead, they resorted to engaged in trading bitter words and pointing accusing fingers at themselves.

I think it’s time for our Excellency, the state governor Abba Kabir Yusif, and his predecessor Dr. Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, to wake up from their slumbers and stop demeaning themselves politically.

Trading accusations of one’s incompetence, docility, and another’s accusation of land grabbing and rat-like behavior is not the utmost priority for Kano populace.

It’s time to stop deceiving ourselves with the longstanding Kano praise “Kano Tumbin Giwa, Ko dame Kazo An Fika,” which means Kano, the melting pot, whatever you came along with, you’re far left behind. Kano state in this modern era deserves to be far from where it is now.

I do hope and pray that Governor Abba and his predecessor Ganduje make Kano and Kanawas their utmost priority. They are our role models, exchanging incendiary remarks with each other will show that politics isn’t only a dirty game, it’s a dirty war of raining curses and abuses.

They should know that someday around this time, they will be no more; only their legacies will make them immortal in the memory of Kano populace.

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