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Some Clarifications Ahead of 2023

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Ameer Abdul Aziz

 

By: Amir Abdulazeez

The primary elections of the two leading political parties, APC and PDP had come and gone. The dusts raised by the exercises across various states of the federation are yet to settle. As things are currently going, it is unlikely that the primary election appeal committees of both parties will adequately or significantly settle these dusts to the extent of amounting to a major change of the status quo. Afterall everything was clear, the contests were majorly a measure of financial power.

As usual, our attempts to digest the intrigues and expectations of the upcoming grand 2023 event has once again resulted to endless debates that often lead to more confusions than clarifications. Certain political dynamics cannot be adequately explained by simple analysis or even complex ones. This is truer for cases like Nigeria where deep insight is considered old fashioned, authentic information is always scarce and genuine narratives are always twisted.
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Ahead of the just concluded APC Primaries, many accused Yemi Osinbajo of being a traitor and betrayer by contesting against his benefactor Tinubu. However, few people will understand that only one out of a million people will go so close to the presidency like Osinbajo did without succumbing to the temptation of taking a shot at it. The cabal-theory notwithstanding, he is perhaps the Nigerian Vice President who was closest to the full privileges of the presidency in recent history. At a time, the Professor himself appeared like the next president in waiting. In sincere terms, Osinbajo may feel that running for the Presidency is more of an attempt to fulfil a destiny than betraying a godfather whose help he may not need any longer.

2023 And The Concomitant Credit Of Collaborating With Kwankwaso
May be, many have forgotten, the Vice President had at a time been an Acting President with virtually full Presidential powers. He is aware of people’s confidence in his competence and he quite knows that there are many factors against Tinubu’s candidacy. With the Southwest as the default region where APC will likely have its next candidate, it is only natural he (the second default candidate) tries his luck in case Tinubu (the default candidate) does not get the nod. If he doesn’t contest, how can he cash in on a Tinubu collapse? If he hadnt contested, his promoters would never have forgiven him. Now that he had contested, he knows the extents and limits of his political strengths which might have been hitherto exaggerated.
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Some analysts have accused Tinubu of trying to become President at all cost despite being sick and unstable. What we have forgotten is that, he had since 1998 invested almost 25 years of his life (and health) trying to reach this point and we all know he will need an ultimate reward at the end of it all. Now that the reward is within reach, only one out of a million people will back off over health challenges that are yet to prevent him from managing a public appearance. When he was making all those sacrifices and concessions, many of us did not bother to understand the larger picture of where he was heading to. If not for democracy, one will suggest that, the APC ticket shouldve been handed over to him unopposed
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Therefore, Tinubu has fought for long, he has been in the opposition all his life, he has helped build a new political order in Nigeria. Without him, power will still likely be with the PDP now and may be forever. It’s not his making that his health appears to be failing him at this moment of near fulfilment, but as a human he will continue believing his condition is good enough to manage him to the finish line. The Late President Ƴaradua’s situation in 2010 should teach us some lessons, that of Buhari in 2017 too. Tinubu is certainly not the best APC had on offer capacity-wise, but he is the most formidable, his political structure is out of this world. Win or lose, at least they have repaid a significant part of the debt they owe him.
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In the build up to the primaries, we all thought everyone was an enemy of the South east since the rest of Nigeria had refused to exclusively zone the presidency to the region. In his speech at the APC convention, Ogbonnaya Onu emotionally shouted for justice against the Igbo marginalization. If not for the APC and PDP Southeast delegates who proved the Igbos unpreparedness by refusing to vote for any of their kinsmen, everyone will simply be emotionally blackmailed. Besides, we have all seen how disorganized the Southeast aspirants were across both parties.

In 2003 to 2010, the South east was considered a strong political bloc, but they wasted opportunity after opportunity to consolidate, instead they focused on ethnic and religious politics. Conceding the Presidency to the Southwest in 1999 was largely a Military arrangement executed against democratic principles. The southeast demanding same in a maturing democracy is quite difficult. In this era, no one will dash you the Presidency, you have to earn it.

Another aspirant is NNPP’s Rabi’u Kwankwaso whose critics accuse of being a local champion. However, his supporters insist on rating him higher than Atiku and Tinubu base on tangible track record. However, the debate is not as simple as it seems. The same scale cannot be used to measure Tinubu, Kwankwaso and especially Atiku as their political career paths are distinctively different. The truth is Kwankwaso is a national figure who has invested too much energy on local politics and that was why he was able to achieve what he has achieved. This has come with a price though because he has dominated and taken away all the local relevance that he couldve easily allowed his subordinates to coordinate, a feat that wouldve given him a Tinubu-like aura. At the end, he ends up fighting for crumbs with local people that makes him unavoidably more local than national.

What of Peter Obi? He appears to have more packaging than substance but, he is yet another litmus test for the Southeast. They feel denied, marginalized and short-changed. Their response should be a massive vote for him even if he may not win, they will succeed in sending a strong message ahead of 2027. However, there is a wiser option. They can use Peter Obi as bargaining tool with someone like Kwankwaso for example; form an alliance, challenge the red-cap man to deliver the Northwest zone while they offer southeast and see whether something will come out of it.

The bottom line is that we don’t need to be too much upset or over obsessed with anybody’s ambition, any region’s miscalculations or any party’s misdirection. There are so many choices in the political landscape which our myopia is hindering us from utilizing. For example, if you truly want an Igbo president, Labour party has fielded Peter Obi, if you want somebody whose hands is not shaking, NNPP has fielded Kwankwaso, etc. Quietly do the needful and enjoin others to do same. Give it try, the strong parties and candidates are only frontliners because you and me made them so.

Nigerian public discourse often makes complex political analysis look simple and simple political analysis look complex. And finally, we end up achieving no political analysis at all.

Twitter: @AmirAbdulazeez

Politics

Staying Loyal: Key to Winning Elections in Nigeria-Reno Omokri

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Obasanjo ,Yaradua and Jonathan during the May 29 2007 handover to President Yaradua

Reno Omokri

If you want to win an election in Nigeria, you can’t jump from party to party. Nobody who has done that has ever won an election at the centre in Nigeria from our amalgamation by the British in 1914 to now. Nobody! You can do so at the regional and state level, especially where your region has ethnic homogeneity. But in a pluralistic federation, you are toast if you do that.

Only those who have remained loyal to their parties have ever won elections as Presidents or Prime Ministers in Nigeria. Your party can go into coalition and merger with another party, or it can change its name and your reputation will remain intact. But when you leave your party to join another party, the people also leave you.

No matter what happens within your party, stay there and resolve the situation. Assert yourself th amere. Go from battleground to common ground. If you cannot lead your party out of a crisis, you will not be able to convince non-tribal critical thinking voters that you can lead the country out of crisis.

Tafawa Balewa was a member of the Northern Peoples Congress. He never changed parties. Shagari was a member of the National Party of Nigeria, which was an offshoot of the Northern Peoples Congress. He never changed parties.

Obasanjo, Yar’adua and Jonathan were members of the Peoples Democratic Party. They never changed parties.

Buhari was a member of the All Peoples Party, which later changed its name to the All Nigeria Peoples Party. The party eventually split, and Buhari went with the Congress for Progressive Change, which, in 2013, merged with other parties to form the All Progressives Congress.

Tinubu was a member of the Social Democratic Party, which was dissolved by Abacha in 1993. Following this, he helped found the Alliance for Democracy, which merged with other parties to form the Action Congress of Nigeria in 2006. The ACN merged with other parties to form the APC in 2013.

Nigerian Politicians should learn from history. The best predictor of the future is the past. Between now and 2027, any politician who leaves his party for another party, except where there is a merger, is just wasting his time and money if he contests for the Presidency.

A country struggling with political stability cannot afford a leader who also struggles with his own mental and political stability.

Sadly, in Nigeria, to leave your party in Presidential politics is to live in pity as a perennial candidate!

Reno Omokri is a former Adviser to President Jonathan

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Politics

When Two Kano Elephant fights, The Grass Suffers -Kabiru Anka

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By Kabiru Anka PhD.

 

The political Intrigues in Kano State in recent time can be rationalised within the dictim of the adage of “When two Elephants fight ,the Grass Suffers”.
It all began with series of litigations and media attacks aimed at former Governor of the state and the National Chairman of ALL Progressives Congress (APC) Abdullahi Umar Ganduje ostensibly by the NNPP lead State government of Abba Kabiru Yusuf

The government, using its organs gone filled multiple court cases against Governor Ganduje and his wife, creating a climate of turmoil and uncertainty in the state.

The fact that the government has taken such drastic measures, including an orchestrated suspension of Ganduje from his party at the ward level, highlights the magnitude of the crisis that has emerged at the national party level. Interest groups are now jostling to take advantage of the situation and capitalize on Ganduje’s vulnerabilities to potentially remove him from office.
However, amidst all these Intrigues is the underlying fact aimed at the demolition of the structure of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Kano State.
It didn’t stop at that , there is also the glaring evidence to stop work on all inherited projects of the former government even at great cost to tax the payers.
As a result, the political turmoil in Kano State has far-reaching implications not only for Ganduje but also for the overall stability of the APC in the state and of course the development of the people.
The power play between interest groups and the state government threatens to disrupt the political status quo and create a vacuum that could be exploited by opportunistic elements.
The situation in Kano State is a reflection of the complex and often treacherous nature of Nigerian politics. As Ganduje navigates through this storm of litigation and media attacks, it is crucial for all stakeholders to prioritize the interests of the people and work towards a resolution that upholds the democratic principles on which our society is built. Only through unity and cooperation can we overcome the challenges that lie ahead and forge a path towards a brighter future for Kano State and Nigeria as a whole than witch hunting a man who worked tirelessly for the sustainability of APC in Kano and success recorded during the last general elections.

The citizens of Kano deserve leaders who prioritize their well-being and work towards the common good, rather than engaging in power struggles and personal vendettas.
Moving forward, it is essential for all parties involved to engage in constructive dialogue and find common ground to resolve the political turmoil in Kano State. By focusing on the issues that truly matter to the people, such as infrastructure development, healthcare, education, and job creation, etc.

Ultimately, the future of Kano State rests on the ability of its leaders to rise above petty politics and prioritize the welfare of the citizens than running after a man who did his best to develop the state as governor.
Two many projects we leant have been abandoned while new ones are being flagged off. Ironically Ganduje completed many of the projects initiated by Kwankwaso. Indeed ,when two elephants fight the grass suffers.

Dr Kabiru Anka is political analysis based in Kano

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Politics

Gov. Gida-Gida and Ganduje: The Firing of Unwarranted Political Salvos-Adamu Aminu

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Former Governor Abdullahi Umar Ganduje and Successor Abba Kabir Yusuf

 

By Adamu Aminu.

It is extremely disheartening to see how recently our two elder statesmen, the Kano state Governor, His Excellency, Abba Kabir Yusif, politically known as Abba Gida-Gida, and his immediate predecessor, the ex-Kano and present APC National chairman, Dr. Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, are busy exchanging salvos directly at each other.

The exchanges of verbal brawls through their spokesmen emanated shortly after Governor Abba Kabir Yusif inaugurated two judicial commissions of inquiry to investigate cases of misappropriation of public property, political violence, and missing persons from 2015 to 2019 to 2023.

It was unfortunate; all the accusations and counter-accusations from both sides were riddled with harsh and demeaning words, deemed unrepeatable and unworthy to come from our respected leaders who are beating chests of leading Kano, the state that has reached the zenith of political maturity in the whole nation.

I was automatically dumbfounded by how the exchanged salvos and political sarcasm were randomly so directed at each other, without revisiting the fact that history never lies; someday, posterity will judge them.

This comes at a time when the warring parties should set aside their differences and make Kano their concern and priority, but they resorted to opening the doors of all blackmailing arsenals at their disposal, overtly directed at each other, without knowing that their utterances and accusations are doing more harm than good to Kano state in general.

This came at a time when our counterpart States in the South, like Lagos, Rivers, and others, have already set politics aside and deeply engaged in the execution of developmental projects for their people, but Kano, a state of whole-tenure politics, is dragging feet towards the fulfillment of promises during electioneering campaigns.

At this time when most Kano industries are not functional, there is no portable water, unemployment, poverty, hunger, and thuggery clogging the wheels of Kano’s economic development, instead, they resorted to engaged in trading bitter words and pointing accusing fingers at themselves.

I think it’s time for our Excellency, the state governor Abba Kabir Yusif, and his predecessor Dr. Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, to wake up from their slumbers and stop demeaning themselves politically.

Trading accusations of one’s incompetence, docility, and another’s accusation of land grabbing and rat-like behavior is not the utmost priority for Kano populace.

It’s time to stop deceiving ourselves with the longstanding Kano praise “Kano Tumbin Giwa, Ko dame Kazo An Fika,” which means Kano, the melting pot, whatever you came along with, you’re far left behind. Kano state in this modern era deserves to be far from where it is now.

I do hope and pray that Governor Abba and his predecessor Ganduje make Kano and Kanawas their utmost priority. They are our role models, exchanging incendiary remarks with each other will show that politics isn’t only a dirty game, it’s a dirty war of raining curses and abuses.

They should know that someday around this time, they will be no more; only their legacies will make them immortal in the memory of Kano populace.

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