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Kano:The Knock On Head Of Nigeria’s Kingmaker

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By Bala Ibrahim.

Historically, Kano was created in 1967 from the former northern region. Geographically, it is located between Katsina state to the northwest, Jigawa state to the northeast, Bauchi state to the southeast, and Kaduna state to the southwest. According to all the national censuses, Kano State is the largest state by population in Nigeria. Also, according to the voter register presented by the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, Kano has the second largest number of registered voters, with close to 6 million people on the roll.

And precisely that is the crucial crux of this article- the political position of Kano in Nigeria.

In other words, is Kano a kingmaker by virtue of its population strength? If yes, is it exploiting that political strength, or simply surrendering to the position of a knock on the head?

Despite Anointing Gawuna,Inuwa Waya To Contest APC Primaries

History has shown that Kano has never produced a democratically elected President. It has never gotten the position of an elected Vice President, or a Senate President. The highest position held by any son of the soil of Kano is that of the Speaker, House of Representative. Yet, it is Nigeria’s reservoir of votes.

Pursuant to the ongoing scramble to grab the access key to the highest seat of power in Nigeria, and my deliberate silence on the issue, a friend sent a message to me, and I quote:

“Salam Sir, have been eagerly waiting to read your take on the endless list of APC presidential aspirants, despite the huge prices of N100m. Perhaps with your views on the permutations and the chances of each candidate, plus clues to decoding Buhari’s kept to chest preferred successor!”

Initially, my intention was to stay mute, until things get to a particular turning point, or a decisive time when the need would necessary arise for the search of a wild card. That is the time when any change in situation, especially the change that would bring big beneficial results to the horse that is coasting to victory comes. At that time, all attention would shift to Kano, the state that always settles the contest.

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Yes, with close to 6 million registered voters, and a high level of political consciousness, Kano is simply Nigeria’s political goal-getter.

Consistently, and continuously, Kano has been the decider on who emerges the political President of Nigeria. And it does so despite the fact that the system has never given any of its sons or daughters the chance to stand as a candidate in any of the big parties, since 1999.

The closest Kano got on the road to the Villa in Abuja was in 1993, when late Bashir Tofa was made the National Republican Convention, NRC, candidate, in the annulled June 12 presidential election that was organised by the military government of General Ibrahim Babangida.

President Muhammadu Buhari, who said he would not disclose his preferred successor for fear of the successor being killed, received nearly 90 percent of Kano state’s vote in 2015, when he got a 1.7 million vote edge that accounted for more than half of his final margin of victory over the then incumbent president Goodluck Ebele Jonathan.

Again in 2019, PMB won his re-election bid by defeating his closest rival Atiku Abubakar, the former Nigeria’s Vice President that was bitten by over 3 million votes, courtesy of the 1.4 million votes given to him by the combined contributions of the 44 local government areas of Kano State.

While my friend’s concern centres on the endless list of APC presidential aspirants, despite the huge prices placed on the Expression of Interest and Nomination forms, my worry is on why no son of Kano is amongst those on the long list, despite the population strength of the state.

Is the kingmaker surrendering to the position of a knock on the head?

Reports have it that the ruling APC has raked in the sum of N1.23 billion from the sale of Expression of Interest and Nomination forms to 17 Presidential aspirants. As of last week, it was gathered that 17 Presidential aspirants had already paid N100 million each for the forms. This is good, even though EFCC is threatening to investigate the sources of such humongous nest egg.

From reports, the list of the presidential aspirants that have picked their forms include, the Minister of State for Education, Emeka Nwajiuba, Jigawa state Governor, Abubakar Badaru, Ebonyi State Governor, Dave Umahi; his Kogi State counterpart, Yahaya Bello; the National Leader of the party, Senator Bola Tinubu and Senator Rochas Okorocha. No single name from Kano.

The question begging for answer is, is the kingmaker surrendering to the position of a knock on the head?

Economic scientists may see population density as a problem that could put pressure on the economy, especially as it influences land allocation, food, infrastructure, and health/human services. But political scientists may have a reversed view.

To them, population density is an advantage, because in democracies, office holders emerge through voting, where the winner is determined by the highest votes.

Every serious aspirant is scrambling to gain the attention and approval of the Kano voters. But while Badaru from neighbouring Kano is keen to go into the contest, no one from amongst the nearly 20 million people in Kano state, of which close to 6 million are registered voters, has shown interest in leading Nigeria.

Is the kingmaker surrendering to the position of a knock on the head?

Politics

Freedom of Choice in Democracy: Why Kano Must Come First

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By Dr. Mukhtar Bello Maisudan

At the heart of any functioning democracy lies a core principle: freedom of choice. This is not simply a slogan; it is a fundamental democratic value upheld by scholars and practitioners alike. From Robert Dahl’s classical theories of polyarchy to Adam Przeworski’s work on democratic accountability, the ability of citizens—and their elected leaders—to reassess alliances and make independent political choices is central to democratic life. It is through this lens that the anticipated/planned decision by the Governor of Kano State to join the All Progressives Congress (APC) must be understood not as betrayal or disloyalty, but as an exercise of democratic agency in pursuit of service to the people of Kano.
Political theorist Robert Dahl argued that democracy is best understood as a system in which citizens have the continuing opportunity to influence decisions by choosing among alternative leaders and policies. In “Democracy and Its Critics,” Dahl emphasizes that political competition, realignment, and choice are not flaws in a system—they are signs of a healthy, responsive democracy. If democratic governance is to live up to its ideals, it must allow its actors the freedom to rethink, reassess, and reorient. This academic foundation supports the view that a political decision like the governor’s intended move is not a violation of democratic norms, but rather a legitimation of them.

Scholar Adam Przeworski, in his work on democratic accountability, stresses that leaders in a democracy are accountable first to the electorate, and not to permanent political patrons or ideological loyalties. Przeworski writes that democracy “requires leaders to be responsive to the preferences of their constituents over time,” implying that flexibility in political alignment is part of responsiveness, not defiance. In this context, the governor’s anticipated decision to join the APC can be seen as an attempt to align Kano State more effectively with federal structures to secure resources, representation, and political leverage for the state. Such a recalibration is not self-serving in itself; it is consistent with the demands of democratic accountability that prioritize public interest.

Kano State is not a laboratory for personal loyalties. It is a large, diverse, and dynamic state with pressing developmental needs—needs that transcend party labels. Political scientist Larry Diamond argues in “Developing Democracy” that the essence of democratic leadership is the capacity to deliver effective governance and improve citizens’ welfare. By this measure, the legitimacy of political decisions must ultimately be judged by their impact on the lives of citizens. Consider key areas where Kano State’s government has demonstrated focus and progress:
Infrastructure development: Sustained investment in road networks to improve transportation and commerce across urban and rural areas.
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Education reforms: Efforts to improve learning outcomes, enhance school environments, and provide opportunities for Kano’s youth.

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Healthcare delivery: Expanding community health services and strengthening public health institutions.

Urban renewal and sanitation: Upholding the dignity of public spaces and improving living conditions in towns and cities.
Economic empowerment: Programs aimed at supporting small businesses, traders, and vulnerable populations.

These are pragmatic governance actions that speak to a vision of development beyond political rhetoric.

Critics may label the governor’s anticipated decision a “betrayal” of Dr. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso. However, such a framing collapses complex political dynamics into oversimplified moral judgments. Political scientists Hana Bäck and Patrick Dumont point out in their research on party systems that politics is inherently dynamic and rooted in strategic considerations, not static allegiances.

Kwankwaso himself is engaged in political navigation and future planning—an entirely legitimate democratic pursuit. If political motivation is acceptable for one leader, it cannot be disallowed for another without creating a double standard that undermines democratic equity.

Democracy thrives in environments of tolerance, dialogue, and mutual respect. Political scientist Benjamin Barber, in “Strong Democracy,” highlights the importance of civic engagement based on deliberation rather than confrontation.

When politics devolves into bitterness, vendettas, and personal attacks, society suffers—not just the political actors involved. It is the people who pay the price. Kano has always been politically vibrant. It must now demonstrate political maturity—showing that disagreements can exist without descending into hostility, and that diverse opinions do not have to fracture communal harmony.

The governor’s anticipated decision—and the public debate surrounding it—presents a test for Kano’s democratic culture. Will we default to partisan outrage, or will we embrace a more reflective understanding of politics as a shared effort to improve human well-being? Democracy is more than a transient contest of power; it is a system of freedom, responsibility, and mutual tolerance. As the Nigerian scholar Claude Ake reminded us, democracy must be rooted in citizens’ everyday lives, not in elite posturing. Kano State must remain above the politics of bitterness and vengeance. Let us focus on inclusive development, respectful disagreement, and collective advancement. Let us celebrate democratic choice and reject divisions that weaken the bonds of community. In the end, history will not remember who switched party cards. It will remember who delivered good governance, served the people earnestly, and strengthened the bonds of unity in diversity. That is the standard Kano deserves—and that is the standard democracy demands.

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Abba Kabir Yusuf and the Politics of Strategic Realignment: Why the APC Option Makes Sense

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By Comrade Najeeb Nasir Ibrahim
Kano Concern Citizens for Good Governance

In politics, leadership is measured not by emotional loyalty to platforms, but by the courage to make strategic decisions that protect stability, relevance, and the collective interest of the people. Recent reports indicating that the Executive Governor of Kano State, Abba Kabir Yusuf, may defect from the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC) should therefore be assessed with political maturity rather than sentiment.

Kano State, Nigeria’s most populous state, occupies a critical position in national politics. Any political decision taken by its governor has implications far beyond party structures—it directly affects governance, development, and Kano’s bargaining power at the federal level.

The Political Reality Behind the Decision

Governor Yusuf emerged under the NNPP, largely supported by the Kwankwasiyya movement. However, evolving political realities—particularly internal divisions within the NNPP and increasing national realignments—have made the status quo difficult to sustain.

The open invitation extended by the APC, reportedly backed by key party stakeholders, reflects recognition of Governor Yusuf’s political weight. More significantly, indications that a large majority of NNPP lawmakers in the Kano State House of Assembly may follow him suggest that this is not an isolated ambition but a calculated collective shift.

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Why the APC Alignment Is a Wise Decision

First, alignment with the ruling party at the federal level enhances access to national resources, infrastructure funding, and policy collaboration. In Nigeria’s political system, federal-state harmony often determines the pace and scale of development. Kano cannot afford isolation at the centre.

Second, internal crises within the NNPP have increasingly become a distraction to governance. Political stability is essential for effective leadership. A move to the APC could consolidate political forces, reduce factional conflicts, and allow the governor to focus squarely on service delivery.

Third, with the 2027 general elections approaching, political foresight is essential. The APC’s nationwide structure, institutional depth, and electoral machinery offer a broader and more sustainable platform than a fragmented opposition party. This positioning strengthens both the governor’s future prospects and Kano’s influence in national decision-making.

Fourth, the move could contribute to building a wider northern political coalition—an important factor in shaping national leadership and policy outcomes in Nigeria.

Responding to the Critics

Critics frame the potential defection as a betrayal of loyalty to the Kwankwasiyya movement. While loyalty has its place, governance must always come before political sentiment. Political movements are vehicles for progress, not permanent constraints.

Others raise concerns about ideological inconsistency. However, Nigerian politics has long been shaped by strategic realignments. What ultimately matters is not party branding, but the ability to deliver dividends of democracy to the people.

Implications for Kano Politics

This moment represents a turning point in Kano’s political history. It signals a possible fragmentation of the Kwankwasiyya structure, a redefinition of long-standing political alliances, and a reshaping of opposition strength within the state. More importantly, it underscores early preparations for the decisive 2027 elections.

Conclusion

Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf’s reported move toward the APC should be seen as a strategic and forward-looking political decision, driven by the need for stability, development, and relevance in national politics. While the decision carries political risks, leadership often demands difficult choices.

History will ultimately judge this decision by its outcomes. If Kano secures greater development, stronger federal collaboration, and political stability, then this move will stand as a wise and timely decision made in the best interest of the people.

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Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf’s Defection:A Strategic Path To Peace,Development And Stability

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By Tijjani Sarki
Good Governance Advocate & Public Policy Analyst
31st December,2025

Politics, when stripped of emotions and partisan sentiments, is ultimately about results. The reported decision of Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf to align Kano State with the ruling party at the centre should therefore be examined from the standpoint of peace, development, security, and long-term stability, not mere party loyalty. When viewed objectively, this move holds strong potential to reposition Kano for inclusive growth and internal harmony.

KANO AND THE COST OF POLITICAL ISOLATION
Historically, Kano State has often found itself operating on a political wavelength different from that of the Federal Government. Across different eras PRP/NPN, ANPP/PDP, PDP/APC, NNPP/APC this misalignment has repeatedly come with consequences. Despite Kano’s enormous population, commercial dominance, and strategic importance in Northern Nigeria, the state has frequently complained of inadequate federal presence in key appointments, budgetary considerations, and flagship national projects.
Political isolation, whether real or perceived, has a cost. It limits access, weakens bargaining power, and fuels a sense of exclusion. Over time, this environment also breeds internal political tension, deepens factional rivalries, and distracts leadership from governance to constant political firefighting.

DEFECTION AS A TOOL FOR PEACE AND STABILITY
One often overlooked advantage of aligning with the ruling party is the reduction of political hostility between the state and the centre. When a governor enjoys smoother access to federal institutions and decision-makers, it lowers the temperature of confrontation and creates room for cooperation.

For Kano, this has direct implications for internal peace and security. Federal-state synergy improves intelligence sharing, strengthens coordination between security agencies, and enhances federal responsiveness to security challenges. In a state as politically vibrant and densely populated as Kano, stability is not optional it is foundational.

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Furthermore, internal political crises thrive where there is uncertainty and fragmentation. A clearer political direction and stronger centre-state relationship can reduce elite conflict, calm rival power blocs, and allow the government to focus on governance rather than survival.

DEVELOPMENT FLOWS WHERE ACCESS EXISTS
Development does not occur in a vacuum. While competence and vision matter, access and influence often determine which states attract federal projects, pilot programmes, and strategic investments. Aligning with the ruling party gives Kano a louder voice at the national table a platform to push for
Improved federal road and rail infrastructure
Expanded security and social intervention programmes
Increased representation in federal boards and agencies
Stronger consideration in national budgetary planning
Kano’s population size alone justifies greater federal attention. Its markets, agricultural value chains, and human capital make it a natural hub for industrial expansion. Political alignment enhances the state’s ability to convert these advantages into tangible outcomes.

SECURITY, INVESTMENT, AND SOCIAL CALM
Investors, both local and international, are drawn to environments of predictability and political stability. A Kano that enjoys harmonious relations with the Federal Government sends a strong signal of confidence. Improved security cooperation, reduced political friction, and steady policy direction all combine to create a more attractive investment climate, which in turn generates jobs and reduces social tension.
Relative peace is not merely the absence of conflict, it is the presence of opportunity.

When people see development projects, employment prospects, and functional governance, political agitation naturally declines.

KANO INTEREST FIRST THE REAL TEST
While the defection itself is strategic, its success will be measured by how well it is used. Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf must ensure that this political repositioning is not reduced to symbolism. Kano’s interest must come first always.
This means, Aggressively negotiating federal presence in Kano
Demanding recognition proportionate to Kano’s contribution to national life Prioritising security, youth employment, and infrastructure
Using access to power to unify, not polarise, the state

CONCLUSION: PRAGMATISM OVER SENTIMENT
In politics, stubborn isolation rarely produces progress. Strategic alignment, when done with clarity of purpose, can unlock peace, development, and stability. Governor Yusuf’s move should therefore be seen as a pragmatic response to Kano’s historical experience, not a betrayal of ideals.
If this opportunity is used wisely, Kano stands to gain relative peace, improved security coordination, stronger development outcomes, and a more stable political environment. The real task now is delivery.

History will not judge the governor by the party he joined, but by what Kano gained because of the decision.

Sarki write from Kano
Can be reached via responsivecitizensinitiative@gmail.com

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