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IMF: Dangote Refinery, Supportive Credit Facility, Can Accelerate Nigeria’s Economic Recovery Process

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Aliko Dangote

The International Monetary Fund (IMP) has noted that the non-oil sector of the Nigerian economy could be stronger, benefitting from its recent growth momentum, higher production from the new Dangote Refinery, and supportive credit policies.

In IMF’s Executive Board 2021 Article IV Consultation with Nigeria released recently, the global organisation added that Nigeria’s ratification of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement could also yield a positive boost to the non-oil sector while oil production could rebound, supported by the more generous terms of the Petroleum Industry Act.

According to the IMF, Nigeria exited the recession in the fourth quarter of 2020 and its output rose by 4.1 per cent (y-o-y) in the third quarter, with broad-based growth except for the oil sector, which is facing security and technical challenges.

While growth was projected at 3 per cent for 2021, it stated that headline inflation rose sharply during the pandemic, reaching a peak of 18.2 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) in March 2021, but has since declined to 15.6 per cent in December.

The institution attributed this to the new harvest season and opening of land borders, although it noted that the reported unemployment rates (end 2020) have yet to come down. It, however, confirmed that more recent COVID-19 monthly surveys have shown that employment was back at its pre-pandemic level.

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The beautiful life of the Nigerian university lecturers that you do not know

“Despite the recovery in oil prices, the general government fiscal deficit is projected to widen in 2021 to 5.9 per cent of GDP, reflecting implicit fuel subsidies and higher security spending,” the Fund said. “Moreover, the consolidated government revenue-to-GDP ratio at 7.5 per cent remains among the lowest in the world.

“After registering a historic deficit in 2020, the current account improved in 2021, and gross FX reserves have improved, supported by the IMF’s SDR allocation and Eurobond placements in September 2021.

“Notwithstanding the authorities’ proactive approach to contain COVID-19 infection rates and fatalities and the recent growth improvement, socio-economic conditions remain a challenge. Levels of food insecurity have risen, and the poverty rate is estimated to have risen during the pandemic.”

The directors highlighted the urgency of fiscal consolidation to create policy space and reduce debt sustainability risks and called for significant domestic revenue mobilisation.

“They noted that exchange rate reforms should be accompanied by macroeconomic policies to contain inflation, structural reforms to improve transparency and governance, and clear communications regarding exchange rate policy.

“Directors considered it appropriate to maintain a supportive monetary policy in the near term, with continued vigilance against inflation and balance of payments risks. They encouraged the authorities to stand ready to adjust the monetary stance if inflationary pressures increase,” the consultation noted.

“Directors recommended strengthening the monetary operational framework over the medium term – focusing on the primacy of price stability – and scaling back the central bank’s quasi-fiscal operations. Directors welcomed the resilience of the banking sector and the planned expiration of pandemic-related support measures. They agreed that while the newly launched eNaira could help foster financial inclusion and improve the delivery of social assistance, close monitoring of associated risks will be important. They also encouraged further efforts to address deficiencies in the AML/CFT framework.

“Directors emphasised the need for bold reforms in the trade regime and agricultural sector, as well as investments, to promote diversification and job-rich growth and harness the gains from the African Continental Free Trade Agreement. Improvement in transparency and governance are also crucial for strengthening business confidence and public trust. Directors called for stronger efforts to improve the transparency of COVID-19 emergency spending,” the IMF added.

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NUC hikes private university application fees

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The Federal Government has hiked the application fees for new private universities to N25m, a memo issued by the Executive Secretary of the National Universities Commission, Prof. Abdullahi Ribadu said on Monday.

The previous processing fee was N5m.

The Commission said the move was part of its efforts at repositioning private universities in Nigeria to better meet the needs of the citizenry and for better coordination of the development of the Private University Education sub-sector of the Nigerian University System.

It also said it has identified the need to review the guidelines for the establishment of private universities.

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Atiku, Tambuwal, Imoke in Strategic Closed-Door Meeting with Obasanjo

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Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar on Monday led a delegation to meet with his former boss, ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo at the hilltop residence of the former Nigerian leader in Abeokuta, the Ogun State capital.

The former vice president was accompanied by former Governor of Cross River State, Liyel Imoke and Senator Aminu Tambuwal who is a former governor of Sokoto State.

The agenda of the meeting was not known as of press time but it comes amid plans by opposition politicians to map out strategies to trounce the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and win the 2027 presidential election.

 

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Agitation For the Creation Of 31 More States: Politics Or Development?An Exercise in Futility Unless There Is Consensus – renowned Political Scientist.

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Abbas Yushau Yusuf

Last week the Nigerian House of Representatives during its plenary session told the nation that it received the proposal for the creation of more states numbering thirty-one.

Currently, Nigeria has a 36-state structure and if the proposed thirty-one are added the states will be 67. Nigeria started with three regions and has been restructured by the military and for over 64 years the agitation did not die down.

On February 5th, 2025 the House of Representatives Committee on the Review of the 1999 Constitution announced on Thursday, that it has received 31 proposals for the creation of new states across the six geopolitical zones.

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Deputy Speaker Benjamin Kalu read a letter from the committee during plenary, outlining the conditions that must be met before any state creation requests can be approved.

According to the letter, the proposals include five from the North Central, four from the North East, five from the North West, five from the South East, four from the South-South, and seven from the South West.

Among the states being considered are Okun, Okura, and Confluence (Kogi); Benue Ala and Apa (Benue); FCT State; Amana (Adamawa); Katagum (Bauchi); Savannah (Borno); and Muri (Taraba).

The states also include New Kaduna state and Gujarat states from Kaduna state; Tiga and Ari from Kano, and Kainji from Kebbi state; Etiti and Orashi as the 6th state in the South East, Adada from Enugu, Orlu, and Aba from the South East.

They also include Ogoja from Cross River, Warri from Delta, Ori and Obolo from Rivers; Torumbe from Ondo, Ibadan from Oyo, Lagoon from Lagos, and Ogun, Ijebu from Ogun, Oke Ogun/Ijesha from Oyo/Ogun/Osun states.

According to the letter, Section 8 of the 1999 Constitution as amended outlines specific requirements that must be fulfilled to initiate the process of state creation.

The letter said “a request to the National Assembly for the purpose of creating a new state shall only be passed if a request supported by at least the third majority of members of the Senate and the House of Representatives and the House of Assembly in respect of the area, and the Local Government Council in respect of the area, is received by the National Assembly.

But in an exclusive interview with a renowned Nigerian Political Scientist with Kano state college of Arts and Science, CAS Kano
Dr. Kabiru Saidu Sufi and a traditional title holder of Marafan Dambatta said unless there is consensus it will be an exercise in futility.

“I think like you rightly said states have become a recurring issue in Nigerian politics overtime there have been this agitation, the more states you create the more agitation, you are likely going to have from all quarters and this one is not a new one, and there have been the debate of whether the creation of states will be beneficial or not. The proponents in practice and in theory believe if you create more states, you are creating more avenues to which you will bring government closer to the people, because as it is the size of some of the states is so large and they believe that if some of these states are broken down they will bring government closer to the people, and there is also the issue of administrative efficiency and you know some people that believe if you create more states these states are more viable and you will have more administrative efficiency and thirdly there are those who believe these states are serving as a future training ground for national leaders, so they will go to the federal level and they say most of them start from the states, so some people believe that the more states you have the more training ground you are creating, for future leaders so, then on the other hand there are those people who believe the creator of states is detrimental to political development, for example they believe you are further disuniting people than uniting them, the more states you have the more divided Nigerians are, so there are those who believe we should have few states and they say let’s even go back to the regions, so that Nigerians will have more sense of unity, and some see the states as an avenue where money is being spent, rather than saving which they say we are creating avenues for spending more money than saving, and when you spend more money is not, and there are those that see the more you create the states the more you are bringing further agitations, and there is even this debate whether it’s possible to even create states under civilian dispensation especially taking into consideration the fact that in the past all states were created during the military regime and so there is this issue of constitutional procedure of creating more states, which is not an easy exercise in which Section 19 has laid down procedures which you can amend the constitution for which you can create states and amend borders and this is a very conversant process ranging from getting the two third majority in the two federal chambers of the Senate and House of Representatives and then the two third majority of the 36 states houses of assembly and in some cases there are serious issues, and there is also involvement of getting the four fifth of the states Houses of Assembly and no matter one will look at it and see that it is not an easy exercise and is something that requires a very rigorous procedure and that may not necessarily be easy to satisfy and in that regard one can say is an exercise in futility and no matter the agitation at the end of the day it does not become a reality and the only way we can make it a reality is to have a lead consensus and when the leadership of the country agree to the desirability of the creation of the states then probably they will find a way of making it easier and when there is no lead consensus you find it to be an exercise in futility.”

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