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As The Agitation For Power Shift Is Gaining Ground:Will Kwankwaso,Atiku,Others Contest in 2023

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From Our Political Desk

Engineer Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso,the first politician to serve two non consecutive terms as Governor since Nigeria’s return to Democracy in 1999 is nursing the ambition to contest for the presidency of Nigeria.

His first attempt was in Lagos on the 10th and 11 of December 2014 when the main Nigeria’s opposition party warmed up to unseat the ruling PDP in the 2015 General Elections.

But as politics would have it, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso lost to President Muhammad Buhari by becoming second with 954 votes to Buharis over 3 thousand votes.

While Atiku Abubakar another politician from the Northern part of Nigeria who has never been hiding his ambition to rule Nigeria came third and Governor Rochas Okorocha clinched the fourth position .

The publisher of Leadership Confidential Sam -Nda Isiah also came 5th .

Unlike Atiku Abubakar who has since indicated interest to vie for the nation’s topmost seat in 2023,Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso is yet to indicate interest as the race is again gathering momentum.

2023 : Will power shift work?

In 1999 when Nigeria decided to return to Democracy ,Northern power brokers made commitment to handover power to the south on a platter of gold without any sweat from the southern part of Nigeria.

The trio of General Abdulsalam Abubakar, Retired General Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida and Lieutenant General Aliyu Muhammad Gusau picked their former Boss General Olusegun Obasanjo after releasing him from prison , repackaged him , employed known and unknown tactics and on May 29,1999 ,the destiny of the nation was bestowed on Obasanjo for the second time ,but this time not against his personal wish and desire.

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Analysts said the dominant Nigerian press which is concentrated in the south mounted a serious propaganda for the North to handover power to the region, citing the excuse of June 12 1993 election annulment as case study to wrest power from the North.

When Obasanjo finished his 8 years in 2007 ,many understand that the former president was not committed fully to returning power to the North,that was why people said he imposed late President Umaru Musa Yaradua to succeed him despite Yardauas sickness.

So instead of the PDP to maintain the gentleman agreement to field another northerner for the 2011 General Elections, it paved way for Goodluck Jonathan to emerge,that arrangement angered many northerners and when GoodLuck Jonathan won the election,post election violence greeted prominent Northern Nigerian cities where properties of elites were razed and Non indigenes were killed.

Now with 2023 approaching ,the call for powershift as a gentleman agreement has started gaining ground again with minister of works and Housing Babatunde Raji Fashola saying for the agreement to be fulfilled the APC should field a southerner as its flagbearer for 2023 General Elections.

Since 1999,the first time the southwest backed a northerner to become President of Nigeria was in 2015 when the Present Chief Obafemi Awolowo of the region,Senator Bola Ahmad Tinubu,APC National leader asked the west to vote for President Muhmmad Buhari.

By 2023, President Buhari will finish his tenure as provided by the constitution,but the APC is yet to tell Nigerians where it’s candidate is coming from ,or it will allow a free contest between candidates from all regions so that the one backed by the party behind the scene will fly it’s flag.

But another party where a number of Nigerians are shifting their attention to is the main opposition party ,the PDP, Politicians like Alhaji Atiku Abubakar have contested under its platform in 2019, and after supreme court judgements that gave victory to President Buhari,Atiku is now warming up and have been regurgitating his structures across the country to launch him into political reckoning and for 2023 Presidency.

Another politician that slugged it out in 2019 with Atiku Abubakar in the PDP Presidential Primaries held in Photarcourt was former Governor of Kano State Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso who has never hidden his ambition to have a shot at the Presidency beginning from 2015?

If PDP decided to allow a level playing field for Atiku,Kwankwaso,Aminu Waziri Tambuwal ,the incumbent Governor of Sokoto State to go for primaries and any one of them wins,APC will have a tough time to win the Presidency easily if it fields a southerner as its Presidential flagbearer for 2023.

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Middle Belt or Bible Belt of Nigeria? By Aminu Ayama

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Let me begin with full disclosure: I am a Muslim and proudly Hausa-Fulani — a product of both tribes, raised with the blended cultures of me begin with full disclosure: I am a Muslim and proudly Hausa-Fulani — a product of both tribes, raised with the blended cultures North-West. If that alone irritates you, simply waka pass, because what follows will be blunt, factual, and completely unapologetic.

First, let us be clear: there is no such thing as a “Middle Belt region” in Nigeria. Not geographically, not politically, not constitutionally. What exists are six geo-political zones, with the North Central being just one of them.

The growing agitation for what I prefer to call the “Bible Belt”—often disguised as “Middle Belt”—is driven largely by neo-Christian maximalists, especially from Plateau State. And Plateau, let us not pretend, has earned an unfortunate reputation as one of the most hostile places for Muslims to live, transit, or thrive. Many documented incidents show entrenched Islamophobic violence, partisan state actions, and security responses that frequently tilt against Muslims whenever there are communal clashes.

But the proponents of this so-called Middle Belt never call it what it truly is: a Christian-only political sanctuary. Even within the North Central, Christians are not the majority. Only Benue and Plateau have overwhelming Christian populations. In Kogi, Niger, Kwara, and Nasarawa, Muslims form the majority—and each of those states is governed by Muslims.

So how does a minority hope to dominate the majority? How can the tail wag the dog?

This agenda is rooted in a deep-seated hostility toward Muslims, weaponised through disinformation, propaganda, and violence. And beyond the politics, the demands are not only unrealistic—they border on the absurd.

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The dream of a cross-regional Christian confederacy stretching across Nigeria would require forcefully merging Christian pockets in the North Central, North East, and North West—communities that share almost no borders—with one another. Over 90% of the Christian minority communities they list are not even geographically contiguous with Plateau or Benue. The only connected Christian-majority areas are Plateau, Benue, and parts of Southern Kaduna.

To create this so-called Bible Belt would require mass displacement of millions of indigenous Muslims living in these territories. It would produce a Bantu-like, Southern Sudan-type enclave in the heart of a predominantly Muslim region.

We know how South Sudan turned out. Years after global Christian activists—and even Hollywood celebrities like George Clooney—pushed the “Christian genocide” narrative to break it away from Sudan, the new country descended almost immediately into ethnic civil war among people who share the same faith. The activists have since moved on. The people remain with the suffering.

This is precisely the kind of tragedy Nigeria risks if it entertains such a divisive fantasy.

Creating a religious enclave in Northern Nigeria is possible only through civil war, mass ethnic cleansing, and forceful land seizure. No legislative process can achieve it; it would require bullets, not ballots.

Even more unrealistic is the attempt to annex Christian-minority areas of Southern Borno, Southern Yobe, Southern Gombe, Southern Adamawa, Southern Bauchi, and parts of Taraba into this imaginary Bible Belt. Except for Taraba, all these states are Muslim-majority and governed by Muslims.

The Bible Belt crusaders have even stretched their ambitions to the far North-West, claiming Christian communities like Zuru in Kebbi and Southern Kaduna, and naming random Christian minority pockets across Katsina, Zamfara, Jigawa, and Kano as part of their utopian region.

Let us be honest: how does this happen without displacing millions of Muslims?
How do you build a Christian-only belt across a region dominated by Muslims without violence?
How do you redraw boundaries across the North without war?

The truth is simple. This agenda mirrors the same formula used in the Middle East—forceful displacement, land acquisition, and demographic engineering. Nothing short of massive foreign-backed militarisation could make it remotely possible.

And even then, like South Sudan, such a creation would become a landlocked, unstable, ethnically fragmented territory—a permanent war zone.

Nigeria must never walk this path.

The so-called Middle Belt agitation is not about geography or justice. It is about identity politics and fear disguised as self-determination. It is a project built on emotion, not logic. On ethnic resentment, not fairness. On religious exceptionalism, not coexistence.

I welcome any factual challenge to the points made here. Let the arguments come—but let them be grounded in truth, not propaganda.

Aminu Ayama
@aaa

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Kano APC’s Crisis and Senator Barau’s Masterclass in Political Maturity

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Senator Barau

​By Ado Isa Jagaba

​The persistent turmoil within the Kano State Chapter of the All Progressives Congress (APC) has, once again, starkly exposed the deep-seated faultlines dividing the party. Yet, amidst this chaos, a quieter but far more instructive story is unfolding—the dignified restrain and profound political maturity demonstrated by the Deputy Senate President, Senator Barau I. Jibrin, CFR, in the face of sustained internal betrayal.

​In 2021, during the crucial APC State Congress, Senator Barau, then a serving Senator and Chairman of the powerful Senate Committee on Appropriations, was systematically denied any meaningful influence. He was refused even an ex-officio slot at the ward, local-government, and state levels. Furthermore, his known allies were barred from serving as supervisory councillors, political advisers, or special assistants, with any identified supporter being ruthlessly sidelined.

​However, instead of engaging in public retaliation or fueling the internal discord, he executed a masterclass in political focus. He kept his attention strictly on delivering concrete development projects, roads, boreholes, schools, and scholarships. Often extending these dividends of democracy far beyond his Kano North Senatorial constituency.

​A Strategy of Silent Service

​His silence in the face of humiliation was not weakness; it was a strategic choice. This political maturity allowed him to rise above the petty fray and continued his unwavering service to the people. When the same elements later attempted to block his Senatorial ticket, national party elders were compelled to intervene. Barau’s perseverance ultimately paid off. He not only overwhelmingly retained his Senate seat, but was subsequently elevated to the position of Deputy President of the Senate, the fifth highest political office in the country.

​Why Barau’s Conduct is the APC’s Current Lesson

​Barau’s political trajectory offers clear, actionable lessons for the crisis-ridden party.

​Service Over Spite

Despite being denied the gubernatorial ticket and facing attempts to sabotage his Senatorial nomination, the Senator put the party first. He extensively financed the Gawuna/Garo gubernatorial campaign in 2023, played a pivotal role in the APC sweeping five of the six House of Representatives seats in his zone, and generously funded crucial legal battles all the way to the Supreme Court.

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​Empowering the Grassroots

Barau has used his federal influence to empower party faithful, securing over 2,500 APC members position of Senior Legislative Aides, Special Adviser roles and influencing numerous federal appointments. This level of patronage and direct welfare for party members is widely regarded as unmatched in Kano’s recent political history. He has also donated hundreds of vehicles and motorcycles to party leadership at all levels.

​A Figure of Unification

The widespread grassroots call for Barau to run for Governor is not accidental. It is a direct recognition of his proven ability to bridge political divides, deliver tangible results, and provide the much-needed cohesion to a fractured party structure.

​The Desperation of the Cabal

​The same cabal that once exploited the gentlemanly nature of our former leader, Baba Ganduje, to humiliate Senator Barau now finds itself increasingly restless and confused. These elements, having benefited from the system, while neglecting the party’s welfare structure, constantly envy the goodwill and resources Senator Barau has directed towards the APC faithfuls.

​Today, they are desperately oiling fabricated and baseless publications aimed at tarnishing his image and sowing division, particularly by misrepresenting his independent political activities as a direct attack on Baba Ganduje’s personality. They are the same people who, having lost their source of leverage, now resort to hiding behind the former governor, seeking continuous protection to the detriment of the party’s survival as a viable opposition force in Kano.

​Unaware that the Senator is far ahead in strategy and political manoeuvring. Their paid “data boys” propagate falsehoods, trying to portray the powerful Senator as a battle-ready opponent of Ganduje’s political empire. However, their efforts fail daily. The resources they once enjoyed are no longer flowing. They cannot match the abundant political capital and widespread support at the disposal of the Deputy Senate President. A serious political Tsunami is being witnessed as many responsible and loyal party members desert their camp, which was built on a shaky foundation of self-interest rather than genuine party welfare.

​The Clear Lesson

​While critics may correctly argue that internal disagreements are inevitable and that the party should pursue reconciliation, others contend that Barau’s track record of quiet, effective service and broad support makes him the natural candidate to restore cohesion and secure future victories.
​Whatever the political outcome, the lesson for the Kano APC is clear: political maturity, as exemplified and typified by Senator, can transform humiliation into a platform for greater influence and power. The party must acknowledge that the same hands that built critical infrastructure and funded crucial legal battles are now being asked to lead the state.
​As many Kano APC stalwarts succinctly put it, “If you want a governor who can turn the tide of the state, look to the man who turned silence into service.”

Lajawa is a Political Analyst, from Warawa Local Government, Kano State
December 7, 2025
Email: adoisajagaban@gmail.com

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Kano 2027 : Is APC Leadership Collapsing Into DSP Barau’s Structure?

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By Abba Anwar

As some may smell it as vanity upon vanity, to the Deputy Senate President, Distinguished Senator Barau I Jibrin, CFR, the recent endorsement pronouncement by some critical stakeholders of All Progressives Congress (APC) in Kano, in favour of the Senator, is at best, political alignment and realignment.

Though less than half of the former Chairmen of the 44 local governments, distanced themselves with the endorsement of Barau for Kano guber position, come 2027, by the former LGs bosses, the firm stay of about 30 of them around the DSP is regarded by many as Divine intervention for his political survival and emancipation from the clutches of political suffocation, hatred, chain and pain.

Whether the pendulum is swinging in the opposite direction or in anti-clock wise, DSP’s political chemistry is taking all shenanigans back to drawing board. Is like the recent events are suffocating the already established system or culture. A culture that Senator Barau had never been part of its originators or scripters ab initio.

The naturalistic exhibition of some strange political behaviors around the Senator and his not very clear-to many- political strategy, jettison the familiar script to screen political calculation to open and non-gravity space. Which turns and makes the atmosphere to be fierce, crawling, thorny, awkward and embarrassingly confusing.

Apart from some information that I eavesdrop, the public outings of some APC stakeholders from Kano, who make DSP’s office a pilgrimage point, is already turning the atmosphere to move from analog to digital display of new born loyalty and reassurance. As 2027 election period is inching on high speed, new fences are created and some hitherto distanced fences started gluing for another round of marriage of convenience.

As Senator Barau is recently taking the show, more and more elements are racing to be identified with his political empire. Some openly, as encouraged by nation’s rules and regulations via freedom of choice and association, others chose to play ostrich.

Just like in the case of former Commissioners who served under the former Governor, Abdullahi Umar Ganduje CON, who paid an earlier solidarity visit to the Senator, only two or less, came out to dissociate themselves from what transpired during the visit. That is out of over twenty of them. As Barau’s relevance, strength, strategy and octopus-like penetration into so many serious minds and structures, are waxing stronger, the man still maintains his long-held humility in struggle and political behavior.

During those visits, faces of some legislators, serving and former, were sighted. At a point, in one of the solidarity visits, the presence of such legislators was acknowledged and applauded by the man of the match.

Pushing down or rather up, to party leadership, as Divinely guided and designed, the Deputy Senate President, freshly received the delegation of the Kano North Senatorial District Caucus of the APC, led by the Chairman, Alhaji Inuwa Dan Shayi Rimin Gado. Without any acrobatic expression, they were categorical that they paid him a solidarity visit to officially endorse him for Kano guber race, for 2027.

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As they unarguably affirmed and reaffirmed their loyalty and unwavering support, they stepped further to announce that they decided to declare him as the sole gubernatorial candidate of APC for the 2027 general elections.

After acknowledging his serious interventions in the state, in many facets of human endeavor, they believe, he is a messiah, whose contributions to the development of the state, are unprecedented in the state political history. Applauding that, Kano’s political economy will be catapulted into modern day governance, when he gets elected come 2027.

The leader of the Caucus group said to the Senator, that, “You have performed well in terms of attracting developmental projects to our state and region. As such, you are the right person for Kano.”

In the absence of using the word contagious, let me use this expression, the solidarity visits by the former LGs Chairmen and Commissioners has a ripple-effect on how others are rushing to be identified with him. The leader of this Caucus group Dan Shayi, made a particular reference with those solidarity visits.

The way I observe recent scenarios is, another set of the party leadership have reached advanced stage in preparation for their solidarity visit to DSP Barau. Something similar with Ganduje during the reign of Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso, when he was about to complete his second tenure in office. I can vividly remember, when the Association of Local Governments of Nigeria (ALGON), Kano Branch, under the then ALGON Chairman, Murtala Sule Garo, pressurized Kwankwaso to fill Ganduje as the sole candidate for the gubernatorial seat. At last Kwankwaso was forced to succumb to pressure. ALGON’s pressure and other factors gave Ganduje the ticket in 2015.

Yes Kwankwaso and some other powerful hands, both visible and invisible, around him, did not have Ganduje as their choice, but as Allah destined, He, Allah, Said “Ganduje Be,” and he (Ganduje), became.

The same Allah is very much around with all His Supreme Attributes. I’m sure this understanding of Divine and human arithmetic is what is prompting many to come forward. It is true that Barau cannot get into the hearts of all APC people and all electorate in Kano, this fate is what will make such people floating in the ever-anticipated political ocean. Some may chose to build a castle in the air. The possibility of impossibility. As what Walter Rodney may call, “development of underdevelopment.”

I also made an attempt to x-ray another round of solidarity visit to the DSP by the leadership and members of the Tinubu/Barau Kano State Consolidated Forum, led by Hon. Lawal Musa Gwarzo.

The visit, the way I saw it, looks very natural. That the group decided to fall-in and follow suit. As the Senator has, in recent time, been very busy receiving support and solidarity from organised political and non-political clusters. In fact, some visits remain closed from public watch. Deciding that, those involved in such visits are only working round the clock to garner more support and loyalty for the Senator.

The Tinubu/Barau Forum has state spread, as acknowledged and appreciated by the DSP on his Facebook page, that, “During the visit, members of the group reaffirmed their total support for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and my political aspirations. With massive grassroots structures spanning wards, local governments, and the state level, the forum’s membership comprises youths, elders, farmers, teachers, former chairmen, political appointees, and other key stakeholders.”

Some of the consistent remarks, to his visitors remain.”I commend the leadership of this movement for their dedication and consistency. In politics, relationships go beyond party lines—true loyalty, sincerity and shared vision are what truly matter.”

My one and only advice to the Deputy Senate President, is, Your Excellency Sir, humility at victory is one of the necessary prerequisites for great men. History is full of this reality.

Sir, remain humble, simple, responsible, remarkable, tolerant and expectorant.

Anwar writes from Kano
Saturday, 6th December, 2025

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