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Economists Project 12–20 Years Before Nigerians Reap Gains from Tinubu Reforms

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1 month ago

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By Yusuf Danjuma Yunusa

Economists say Nigerians may have to wait between 12 and 20 years to fully feel the benefits of President Bola Tinubu’s economic reforms.

According to them, the measures are likely to deliver gradual improvements in productivity and real incomes rather than immediate relief from high prices and declining purchasing power.

The economists told Nairametrics that major structural reforms typically involve a painful adjustment period before their benefits become evident, adding that the pace of improvement would depend largely on policy stability, infrastructure development, the rule of law and investments in productive sectors of the economy.

Chief Economist and Partner at SPM Professionals, Dr. Paul Alaje, said structural reforms generally take 12 to 20 years before their impact becomes significantly visible, although some countries have recorded meaningful results within six to 10 years.

“On the average, it takes 12 to 20 years before nations start feeling the impact of reforms. That does not necessarily mean such countries will see overnight reduction in their exchange rate. But what they will see is growth in real income as productivity expands,” Alaje told Nairametrics.
Financial economist at Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Dr. Felix Echekoba, also said major economic restructuring usually imposes short-term sacrifices before delivering long-term benefits.

“Most successful economic restructurings around the world imposed short-term sacrifices on the masses before long-term benefits.
“The challenge is working hard enough to ensure that the adjustment period does not become unnecessarily prolonged and that vulnerable citizens are protected,” he said.
According to Professor Tayo Bello, a development economist at Adeleke University, Nigeria’s experience is consistent with the pattern observed in other countries that have undertaken major subsidy and exchange rate reforms.

“There is no case of any country implementing major subsidy removal and exchange rate reforms without experiencing temporary economic distress. What matters are policy stability and whether the reforms ultimately fuel productivity and investment,” Bello said.
Why Nigerians are yet to feel the benefits
Tinubu introduced a series of far-reaching economic reforms after assuming office in May 2023, including the removal of petrol subsidies, liberalisation of the foreign exchange market, electricity tariff increases and tax reforms aimed at improving government revenue and fiscal sustainability.

The reforms have received support from international financial institutions, but their immediate impact has been overshadowed by elevated food and service prices, high interest rates and declining household purchasing power.

Alaje said the absence of key conditions needed to support structural reforms is limiting the speed at which Nigerians can benefit from the government’s policies.

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According to him, countries that have achieved faster results from reforms typically had functional institutions, respect for the rule of law, adequate infrastructure and a high level of citizen awareness.

“A functional system where the rule of law is respected and obeyed, abundant infrastructure evident in the availability of roads, electricity and rail system, as well as high level of citizen awareness” are among the factors that can accelerate the benefits of reforms,” he said.
Alaje said Nigeria still faces significant gaps in these areas, particularly infrastructure and institutional effectiveness.

“Businesses are now approaching the banks, but interest rates are not coming down. It ranges between 30 and 40%. Households are now struggling with a minimum wage of N70,000, with the country’s poverty rate at over 140 million, more than 60% of the population,” he said.
He added that the poorest Nigerians would bear much of the burden during the adjustment period, warning that reforms alone would not be enough to lift millions of people out of poverty within a few years.

“It will take more than a decade for the masses to feel any positive impact of Tinubu’s reforms,” Alaje said.
Infrastructure, investment key to reform gains
Bello said macroeconomic stability achieved through reforms would only provide the foundation for broader economic transformation.

“Macroeconomic stability is only the first step. The real benefits come when reforms are buttressed by investments in infrastructure, manufacturing, agriculture, education and technology,” he said.
He added that countries that successfully transformed their economies combined fiscal and monetary reforms with aggressive industrialisation strategies.

Echekoba similarly said the government must ensure that the adjustment period does not become unnecessarily long while putting measures in place to protect vulnerable households.

The economists’ assessment is consistent with experiences from countries that undertook major economic reforms before recording broader improvements in living standards.

India’s economic liberalisation programme, introduced in 1991 following a balance of payments crisis, helped restore macroeconomic stability within about two years. However, broader gains in foreign investment, industrial growth and poverty reduction became more evident over the following decade.
Ghana’s Economic Recovery Programme, introduced in the 1980s, also took several years before inflation declined significantly and economic growth became more sustainable.
Indonesia’s reforms following the 1997 Asian financial crisis similarly took several years to restore investor confidence and return the economy to a stronger growth path.
Egypt’s 2016 currency flotation and subsidy reforms initially triggered a sharp rise in inflation, which exceeded 30%. The economy subsequently recorded stronger growth, increased foreign investment and improved macroeconomic stability after several years of implementation.
These experiences suggest that the economic benefits of major structural reforms can take several years to become widely visible, particularly where reforms are accompanied by significant increases in the cost of living during the initial adjustment period.

Before the removal of petrol subsidies in 2023, the Federal Government was budgeting about N3.36 trillion annually for fuel subsidy payments.

The Tinubu administration had argued that ending the subsidy would free up resources for infrastructure development and social programmes designed to cushion the impact of the policy on households.

However, the economists said the extent to which Nigerians ultimately benefit from the reforms will depend on how effectively the government deploys the savings and creates conditions for higher productivity, investment and real income growth.

Source: Nairametric

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Kenyan Presidential Aspirant Warns Dangote: ‘Don’t Rush Lamu Refinery, I’ll Send You Back to Nigeria’

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23 minutes ago

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October 11, 2026

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By Yusuf Danjuma Yunusa

A man identified in a viral video as Kenyan presidential aspirant Patrick Osoi has sparked a heated online debate after warning Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote not to rush into establishing an oil refinery in Lamu, saying he would send the businessman back to Nigeria if elected president.

In the clip, said to have been recorded at a Lions Movement event, Osoi says: “I want to tell Aliko Dangote, please don’t rush to start the refinery because, when I’m sworn in as President of Kenya next year, you will be heading back to Nigeria.”

The remarks appear to reference a proposed $16 billion refinery project in Lamu, a coastal county that Kenya has promoted as a future hub for oil and gas infrastructure. Osoi argued that Kenyan investors have the capacity to build and run such a facility without foreign ownership.

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“We don’t need to beg foreigners to develop our resources,” he said, according to a partial transcript of the video. “Kenyans can do it.”

The video has been shared widely on Facebook, X and WhatsApp, drawing mixed reactions. Supporters praised Osoi for what they called a bold defense of economic sovereignty. Critics warned that the comments could scare off foreign investors and strain Kenya’s diplomatic and trade ties with Nigeria.

Dangote, Africa’s richest man and chairman of Dangote Group, has not publicly responded to the clip. His conglomerate operates one of the world’s largest single-train refineries in Nigeria and has investments in cement, sugar, fertilizer and petroleum across Africa.

The Kenyan government has not commented on the video. It was not immediately clear whether the Lamu refinery project involving Dangote is still active or whether Osoi’s remarks reflect any official policy.

Political analysts say the controversy underscores growing public debate in Kenya over foreign investment, local content and control of natural resources ahead of the next general election, expected in 2027.

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NDC’s Kano Governorship Candidate Gwarzo Missing From INEC Final List

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10 hours ago

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October 11, 2026

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By Yusuf Danjuma Yunusa

The National Democratic Congress (NDC) governorship candidate in Kano State, Aminu Abdussalam Gwarzo, is absent from the final list of governorship candidates released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

The three-page list, signed by INEC Secretary Rose Oriaran-Anthony, contains 17 governorship candidates and their running mates for the Kano election, but neither Gwarzo nor any other NDC candidate appears on it.

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Those listed include Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Abacha Muhammed Sani of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and candidates from the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Labour Party (LP), Social Democratic Party (SDP), Action Alliance (AA), African Action Congress (AAC), Action Democratic Party (ADP), All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), Allied Peoples Movement (APM), and New Democratic Party (NDP), among others.

The document provides the names, political parties, ages, genders, and educational qualifications of the candidates and their deputy governorship candidates.

INEC did not state why the NDC candidate was omitted, and the published list does not indicate whether the omission is connected to the party’s nomination process, documentation, or another issue.

The development raises questions about the NDC’s participation in the Kano governorship election, although the list alone does not establish the reason for Gwarzo’s absence.

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Dawakin Tofa Academic Forum Holds Maiden Heroes Day, Honours Former Kano Governor

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October 10, 2026

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The Dawakin Tofa Academic Forum has held its maiden Heroes Day and awards ceremony, honouring 10 distinguished late indigenes of Dawakin Tofa Local Government Area of Kano State for their contributions to education, public service, politics, community development and other fields.

The event, organised by the Dawakin Tofa Academic Forum, brought together academics, community leaders, elders and other stakeholders to celebrate the legacies of prominent personalities who contributed to the development of Dawakin Tofa, Kano State and Nigeria.

Speaking at the ceremony, the chairman of the forum, Dr Junaidu Danladi, said the organisation was established in 2018 to bring together educated indigenes of Dawakin Tofa, including professors, associate professors and other professionals from tertiary institutions.

Danladi said the forum had grown significantly since its establishment, with more than 100 members committed to promoting educational development and recognising individuals whose contributions had positively shaped the community.

He said the maiden Heroes Day was organised to preserve the history of Dawakin Tofa and ensure that the achievements of its prominent sons were documented and remembered by present and future generations.

In his remarks, Surveyor Muhammad Nadu Yahaya, an elder and former commissioner for lands, budget and planning, described the initiative as a timely and commendable development, saying the recognition of distinguished personalities from Dawakin Tofa was long overdue.

Yahaya said the forum represented the intellectual elite of Dawakin Tofa, whose members had demonstrated a commitment to advancing the community through knowledge, innovation and public service.

He commended the organisers for introducing the Heroes Day initiative, describing the selected award recipients as eminent personalities whose influence extended beyond Dawakin Tofa to Kano State and Nigeria.

Yahaya also called on the people of Dawakin Tofa to make additional efforts to distinguish the local government through educational advancement, community development and other innovative initiatives.

He prayed for Allah’s blessings upon the award recipients and the organisers, urging the forum to sustain the programme as an annual event that would inspire younger generations.

Similarly, Madakin Kano, Yusuf Nabahani Cigari, commended the Dawakin Tofa Academic Forum for recognising the achievements of the community’s late prominent figures.

Cigari said Dawakin Tofa was blessed with accomplished individuals across politics, the economy and public service, adding that the local government had a rich history of producing personalities who contributed to the development of Kano State and the country.

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He urged the people of Dawakin Tofa to remain united and work collectively towards the progress of their community, stressing the importance of preserving its heritage and celebrating its achievements.

The former chairman of the Dawakin Tofa Academic Forum, Dr Ameer Abdul Aziz, presented the profiles and contributions of the personalities selected for the maiden edition of the Heroes Day.

Abdul Aziz explained that hundreds of deserving indigenes could be considered for recognition, but the forum selected 10 individuals for the inaugural edition, with the intention of honouring more distinguished personalities in subsequent editions.

Among those honoured was Bello Kano, also known as Madakin Kano, who was born in 1907 and died in 1987. Abdul Aziz said Bello Kano began his career in education as an assistant teacher before rising to become a headteacher at a middle school.

According to Abdul Aziz, Bello Kano also served in different administrative and legislative capacities and contributed to the establishment of primary and post-primary schools in Dawakin Tofa, helping to expand access to education in the area.

Another recipient was Alhaji Adamu Danguguwa, who lived from 1913 to 1988. Abdul Aziz said Danguguwa acquired Qur’anic education and later attended Samaru Agricultural School, where he received agricultural training.

The forum also recognised a former governor of Kano State, “Alhaji Abdu Dawakin Tofa,” born in 1932 and died in 2003, who studied at Kansas University in the United States and served as commissioner for agriculture, deputy governor and governor of Kano State from May to October 1983.

The late Imam of Dawakin Tofa, Mukhtar Iman, who lived from 1935 to 2008, was also honoured for his contributions to reconciliation and efforts to combat illiteracy, according to Abdul Aziz.

The forum recognised Ahmad Ismail Dungurawa, who lived from 1945 to 2008, for his role in struggles for justice and his efforts to promote the interests of ordinary people.

Another award recipient, Aminu Garba Yaro, was celebrated for his generosity and support for children, including assistance to young people seeking educational opportunities. Abdul Aziz said Yaro, who worked with United Bank for Africa, made contributions to the welfare and advancement of others.

The forum also honoured Engineer Magaji Abdullahi, a water engineer who lived from 1947 to 2016, for his contributions to Dawakin Tofa, Kano State and Nigeria. Abdul Aziz said Abdullahi’s professional work and services had made a lasting impact on the community ,a prominent politician and a former Deputy Governor of Kano state from 2003 to 2007.

Abdullahi Maikano Rabiu, who lived from 1949 to 2021, was recognised for his commitment to supporting students, including those he knew personally and others who approached him for assistance, according to Abdul Aziz.

Abdul Aziz described Rabiu as a compassionate individual and a man of wisdom whose generosity helped many people pursue their educational ambitions.

The forum also honoured Alasan Dawakin, who was born in 1946 and died in 2023, for dedicating about five decades of his life to teaching and learning, according to the former chairman.

Another honouree was Malam Abdullahi Maikano, who lived from 1942 to 2023, in recognition of his contributions to the community.

The organisers said the Heroes Day was designed not only to honour the achievements of the deceased personalities but also to encourage younger generations to emulate their commitment to education, service, integrity and community development.

The maiden edition marked an effort by the Dawakin Tofa Academic Forum to document the history of prominent indigenes and establish a platform for celebrating individuals whose contributions might otherwise be forgotten.

The forum is expected to use the initiative to strengthen community ties, promote educational values and encourage the emergence of future leaders committed to the development of Dawakin Tofa and Kano State.

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