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Dangote refinery: Dangers of a single narrative – sifting facts from emotion | RICHARD AKINOLA

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Richard Akinola

 

When the Dangote refinery controversy blew up, naturally as someone wired to support anyone l perceive to be oppressed, this time, Dangote, l lined up in support of the richest man in Africa.

I perceived he was being unduly treated by the Downstream and Midstream regulators, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA). For days, l had heated arguments with people with opposing views on this matter. However, Ademola Adigun, one person l respect on this app, cautioned that people should not be too emotive on this matter but seek knowledge. I took that as a challenge.

Subsequently, in an attempt not to look foolish out of emotive consideration, l opened my mind to critically study the issues involved and even the nitty gritty technical details of the oil and gas system. And because l owe an obligation to educate people, l had to open up myself to information, researching on this issue and the petroleum sector, devoid of emotion.

While several groups of people, including one of my constituencies -the Civil society, have made pilgrimages to the humongous site of the Dangote refinery, unarguably, the largest private refinery in World, l decided, what in my opinion, was sifting facts from emotion. The issue has even reverberated in the hallowed Chambers of the House of Representatives, where the adhoc committee set up to investigate the issue, among other issues in the upstream and midstream petroleum section, was dissolved yesterday.

In a report today by Daily Nigeria, the Speaker, Abbas Tajuddeen, dissolved the committee over alleged compromise by some members of the committee who had exculpated the richest man in Africa, even before the assignment kicked off.

From my findings, there are three major critical issues that are affecting the operations of Dangote Refinery

1) CRUDE SUPPLY-FEEDSTOCK

It does appear that when Dangote was building the refinery, there were no proper arrangements on ground on how he will get feedstock for the refinery. His refinery is the largest single train refinery in the world.
Nobody builds and opens a refinery of this magnitude without refinery agreement to get feed stock. Dangote didn’t have a feedstock agreement for his refinery.

I have read where some people claimed that he has an agreement with NNPC Ltd but that arrangements was not a feed stock agreement. What happened with the NNPC arrangement was that during the project building phase, Dangote Refinery project got stuck and NNPC Ltd got the approval of the President to take equity.

Subsequently, the NNPC got a loan and paid $1bn as part of the 20 per cent equity while the rest was to be paid in crude supply.

The lack of feedstock was part of Dangote’s problem and he is now sourcing feedstock when the refinery is powered. So far, NNPC Ltd has given him 39 cargoes.

2) CRUDE OIL PRICES
Dangote’s claim that IOCs are selling crude oil to him at $6 per barrel above international price doesn’t seem to be true. What l discovered is that Crude oil has different grades. What he got from the US is WTI and the price is not the same as others.
Another key issue under pricing is that the margin of sale of crude oil is different because it is an international business. There is what is called market margin and it is usually from $1.5 to up to $20 per barrel.

There are several crude grades and Dangote Refinery uses different grades of crude to blend. So, when Dangote said he is importing from the United States, it is because he needs it as part of the grades to be used to blend in his refinery to produce petroleum products. His refinery needs several percentage of Bonny light, WTI and others to be able to blend very well. But he is using the fact that he imports from US to give the impression that he is importing from US and other countries, when in actual fact, is that he is sourcing different crude grades to blend.

Another critical point of under pricing is that the marketers buy this crude grades and add their own margin which ranges from $1.5 to $20 but the Nigerian government is giving it to Dangote at a margin of $0.5 per barrel which to me seems to me to be a good deal for him.

One other contentious issue is that Dangote is also persuading the regulator, to persuade the International Oil Companies to give him crude but the IOCs cannot do that because they have Production Sharing Contract (PSC) with the Nigerian government. Through the PSC, the IOCs produce, give Nigeria government its share and take the share of their crude and sell to marketers. Dangote didn’t enter any agreement with the IOCs to give him feedstock. What people must also know is that these IOCs borrow money from banks, invest in equipments, drill the oil fields, give government its share and take theirs, sell, recover their costs and make further investments.

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Also, Dangote wants to use the local refinery obligation to obfuscate issues but this is not working for him because the local refinery obligation, according to the PIA, is based on a willing buyer and willing seller arrangement. This means the product must be available, and the parties must agree on the price in line with Section 109 of the PIA, which deals with the National Crude Oil Requirement of Refineries. The section states that the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission shall base the allocation of the domestic crude oil supply obligation applicable to the respective lessees on the National Crude Oil Demand requirement supply curve, which is the supply curve of crude oil or condensate that can be supplied on a voluntary basis at the prevailing international market price.

3) DOWNSTREAM
On the controversial issue of licensing of Dangote Refinery, while it has the license to build the plant, the refinery does not have license that covers other parts of its operations.

For monopoly, Dangote is asking the regulator to direct all oil marketers to get petroleum products from his refinery. But the question to ask is: Can Dangote guarantee Nigeria three billion liters of petroleum products per day in strategic national reserves for 32 days and not sell it? As a business entity, for Dangote to keep these products in strategic national reserves without selling them will lead to huge losses for him.

For the regulator to give Dangote that monopoly that he asking means that the business of other oil marketers would be killed and this is against the policy of deregulation because marketers should be allowed to import so there can be healthy competition.

Another critical point to note is that Dangote Refinery operates in a free trade zone and he will be exempted from paying tax to government. This is a loss of revenue to the government. The petroleum products from the refinery would be sold in foreign currency instead of naira to Nigerians as oil marketers who want to buy from there will fill form M (Importers form) in the bank.

Another contentious issue is the sulphur content in the petroleum products. It was reported in the media that the NMDPRA has minimum of 11 staff members in Dangote Refinery and all other local Refineries. The test of the petroleum products from the refinery are done daily and sent to the regulator. This means the regulator knows what they are saying when they stated that the product is inferior.

One worrisome aspect of the whole arrangement is that Dangote will need a minimum of $1.8bn working capital to operate the refinery and no bank would be willing to give it to him because he appears to be at a financial tight corner.

This was further confirmed with yesterday’s International Fitch ratings which downgraded the Dangote industries Limited, reflecting the precarious liquidity position of the business conglomerate.

The report stated inter alia that the group’s liquidity position, “followed lower than expected disposal proceeds, operational and financial underperformance compared to our prior expectations, also affected by local currency devaluation, and lack of contracted backup funding to repay its significant debt facilities maturing on 31 August 2024….We view the lack of DIL’s audited accounts for 2023 as a corporate governance issue. The RWN reflects uncertainty related to the group’s ability to refinance maturing debt.

“Lack of tangible steps to refinance or repay the maturing debt would lead to further downgrade while we do not expect a positive rating action until the company’s liquidity position improves substantially.”

I love Dangote and his can-do spirit, the reason l initially was emotive when this controversy broke when l felt he was being unduly treated but my study of the whole scenario has changed my perspective. I want him to succeed but he too has to do the needful. The monopolistic mindset which he carried from his cement business cannot work in the deregulated petroleum sector. More importantly, he needs a pragmatic approach to solve his liquidity challenges in this petroleum sector, which, with the benefit of hindsight, he underestimated, based on the seeming hand-in-gloves relationship he had with the previous leadership of the CBN, where it appeared he had “easy” access to funds.

Soji Adekunmbi, an Abuja based public policy analyst, in an article in The Cable, proffered solutions to Dangote to enable him navigate the humongous financial quagmire he seems to have found himself, when he posited: “A few options are available to Dangote but the most viable of them is that he should consider divesting some of his shares in the refinery. It may seem a difficult option but it is the best for him given the circumstances.

There are business entities who took a similar path when confronted with some of the challenges seemingly facing Dangote. In Saudi Arabia, the Saudi government sold Aramco, the national oil company to the public when it faced difficulties.

Even Microsoft founder, Bill Gates sold off a majority of his stake in the company retaining a mere five percent interest in the business. Gates took that route after facing anti-trade court cases following Microsoft’s monopolistic nature, which had caused the collapse of several IT companies.

Dangote should do the needful by selling shares to Nigerians as it is obvious given the intricate nature of business in the oil and gas sector particularly the huge capital outlay required to keep a business going, he cannot pull it off alone.”

Opinion

All Hail The 17th Emir Of Gumel, His Royal Highness, Dr. Lawan Ahmed Mohammed-DIG

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By DIG Mohammed Usaini Gumel (Rtd)

With profound submission to the will of Almighty Allah, I extend my heartfelt condolences on the passing of our revered Emir, His Royal Highness Dr Ahmad Muhammad Sani II, (CON).

His distinguished reign was marked by wisdom, humility, justice, peace and devoted service to his people. May Almighty Allah forgive his shortcomings, illuminate his grave, admit him into Aljannatul Firdaus and grant him eternal rest. Ameen.

As we mourn his passing, we thank Almighty Allah for the peaceful succession to the revered throne of Gumel. It is therefore with great joy and respect that I congratulate His Royal Highness, Lawan Ahmed Mohammed, PhD, on his ascension as the 17th Emir of Gumel.
Your Royal Highness’s ascension to the throne of Gumel, continues the sacred trust entrusted to the custodians of this ancient throne.

There is no doubt that enduring traditions of unity, dignity, courage and service, has been established and preserved by the forbears, as your late father has strengthened them, through compassionate and principled leadership.

We are confident that your knowledge, experience and understanding of both our traditions and the modern world will guide the Gumel Emirate towards greater progress. We look forward to your leadership to consolidate peace and unity, preserve our cultural heritage, uphold justice and consultation, and promote development in education, agriculture, commerce, healthcare, technology, youth empowerment and community security.

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This is a time for every son and daughter of the Gumel Emirate to unite in common purpose. The strength and stability of the throne depend on the cooperation of the Royal Family, traditional titleholders, District and Village Heads, religious leaders, elders, elected representatives, professionals, farmers, traders, women, youth and all our communities, should rally round the new Emir for the common purpose of peace, unity, progress and socio-economic development of the Gumel Emirate.

At this time, our loyalty must be expressed through respect for the traditional institution, responsible conduct, sincere counsel and a shared commitment to the Emirate’s peace and development.

In a period like this we must accept to preserve the legacy of our ancestors and predecessors while building a Gumel Emirate that is peaceful, united, secure, educated, economically vibrant and responsive to every community.

Indeed, a leader serves as the heartbeat of a community. You are the heartbeat of the Gumel Emirate. The Gumel Emirate is lucky to have you as our 17th Emir, because you are such a figure, embodying wisdom, unity, and deep compassion for all residents. This tribute reflects on a legacy defined by tireless service, demonstrating how true leadership transcends mere titles to become a guiding light for generations to come.

Kindness often acts as the strongest bridge between a ruler and the people. We can only expect that this your distinguished reign as the 17th Emir of Gumel shall prioritize the well-being of the vulnerable, ensuring that voices which were often unheard find support within the palace walls.

Your Royal Highness, historical records frequently highlight leaders like the late Emir, who gained fame for generosity of spirit. I am happy to embrace the fact that you shall exhibit actions that prove authority is most effective when it is paired with genuine care for the common person.

The Gumel Emirate is lucky for the fact that beyond local boundaries, you are a master of diplomacy and peace. It’s a fact that conflicts are natural parts of human society, yet you are among the wise leaders who know how to navigate these challenges without bloodshed.

May Almighty Allah grant Your Royal Highness wisdom in judgment, patience in adversity, courage in leadership and sound health throughout your reign. May He protect you, guide your decisions and bless you with sincere, loyal and trustworthy advisers and reign, strengthen our unity, preserve our honour and bring enduring peace, progress and shared prosperity to the entire Gumel Emirate. Amin.

DIG Mohammed Usaini Gumel (Rtd) writes from his Gumel home, Jigawa State.

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Opinion

IT IS OVER: Gov Yusuf Ends 50-Year BUK Land Crisis Ushering Progress for 6,000 Families

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By Abba Anwar

Fifty years of litigation, mistrust, protests and painful loss came to an end yesterday as the Kano State Government formally resolved the protracted land dispute between Bayero University Kano and the people of Rimin Zakara, Rijiyar Zaki and adjoining communities.

At a historic meeting attended by government officials, university authorities, traditional rulers and community representatives, Governor Alhaji Abba Kabir Yusuf declared the crisis over and unveiled a settlement built on “… justice with compassion” that protects both institutional development and innocent families.”

Commissioner for Public Procurement, Projects Monitoring and Evaluation, Nura Iro Ma’aji, represented the Governor, Commissioner for Land and Physical Planning, Abdujjabbar Muhammad Umar was there, Prof Ahmad Muhammad Tsauri, represented the Vice Chancellor of BUK and the people of Rimin Zakara, were led to the venue by Alhaji Baba Habu.

The exceptional effort is a clear testimony that Governor Yusuf’s administration is a peace-loving one which chooses resolution over confrontation.

Just as he said the settlement reflects the core philosophy of his administration, in an effort to confront inherited problems, restore institutions, protect ordinary citizens and deliver practical solutions to a lingering crisis. Which sometime in the past claimed innocent lives.

“We are not here to recount the history of Rimin Zakara. We are here to close it. For almost half a century, this crisis survived successive administrations. When we assumed office, we made a simple commitment, that we would not run away from difficult problems simply because they were inherited,” he emphasized.

The Commissioner for Land and Physical Planning, Umar, explained that a High-Level Committee was constituted after violent confrontations in early 2025 made it clear the dispute had become “… a serious issue of justice, public security, institutional development and community stability.”

He hinted that, after verifying more than 6,000 claims, examining historical records and conducting surveys, the Executive Council approved a settlement guided by one principle, that is to protect BUK, compensate genuine victims, restore peace and bring the dispute permanently to an end.

Under the informed terms of peace, it was positioned that, it would be land for BUK, plots and compensation for the People. An excellent crisis resolution strategy, commended by all and sundry.

The agreement made sure that BUK is protected. Where more than 85 per cent of Bayero University Kano’s landholding is preserved for future academic, research, residential and infrastructural development. The University made a significant sacrifice by accepting the excision of portions of land originally reserved for expansion.

Agreement further paved way for community resettlement. Where residential plots have been reserved and allocated to verified beneficiaries in the approved Rimin Zakara/Rijiyar Zaki and Jajira/Garun-Iya schemes.

Part of the agreement maintains that compensation should be ongoing. As monetary compensation for eligible claims and structures is being processed by the Ministry of Land and Physical Planning. Government has committed Billions of Naira for compensation, resettlement, planning, surveying and infrastructure.

Governor Yusuf warned henceforth that the decision to compensate was humanitarian, not a validation of illegal sales. “Thousands of people bought land in good faith from persons who had no lawful authority to sell it. Many invested their life savings. The strict application of the law without regard to these circumstances could throw thousands of families into a catastrophic situation.”

Only a government with human face can think this way. Or similarly. This good work on compassionate ground means a lot for electoral victory, come 2027. In fact some of the people who made speeches from the part of the community leaders, made it very clear that, their votes and those they control, would be in favour of Governor Yusuf. This was said without any hesitation, whatsoever.

What is worth celebrating in the resolution of Governor Yusuf’s 50-year BUK-Rimin Zakara land dispute is while Kano State has resolved its land dispute, several other states continue to grapple with age-long land conflicts that have lasted five decades and more without final resolution. This speaks volumes about Governor’s capacity, clean mind and strong political will in serving his people.

For example in Cross River/Ebonyi there is Adadama vs Amaegwu dispute. It is a story of a farmland dispute dating back to 1960. In April 2025, the crisis claimed 11 lives and displaced over 2,000 people. Despite a 2024 communique by both state governments, violence has continued. Which shows how strong is Kano’s strategy.

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In Ebonyi–Ezza vs Ezillo/Iyionu, it is a land dispute of over 50 years old, with a major serious clash in 2008 that displaced communities for 18 years. In March 2026, displaced persons petitioned Gov. Nwifuru for resettlement. Clashes and abductions were still reported in 2024. These are the kind of scenarios Kano’s current administration averted. Kudos Mr Governor!

The Ogun/Oyo–Odeda boundary dispute that was rooted in colonial 1926 boundaries. In May 2025, the Ogun State House of Assembly again urged the National Boundary Commission to urgently delineate the border after allegations of forceful land acquisition and tampering with boundary pillars. Serious clashes were witnessed which caused some loses. In Kano, under Governor Yusuf, similar ugly situation has been averted.

While Imo–Mgbirichi/Abakuru vs 34 Artillery Brigade caused serious misunderstanding, where land acquired in 1977/78 is the causative agent. Communities protested in 2024 over alleged encroachment “up to backyards of houses.” A Defence Headquarters delegation visited in 2024 for dialogue, but the dispute remains unresolved. Kano’s Model is therefore one of the best in the country.

Kano’s settlement therefore stands out as one of the few instances where a decades-old land crisis has been decisively closed through compensation, resettlement and legal backing. A vote of confidence and thank is naturally directed at Commissioner Umar.

His genuine commitment and political will as copied from the Governor, gave him all the necessary guts and straightforwardness in mending the tore parts of Rimin Zakara and its surroundings, as related to BUK, as an institution.

To unveil some of the commendable strategic points to the gathering, the Commissioner added that government would reissue compensation cards directly to verified beneficiaries and that anyone who exploited the process badly would face legal action. Campassion not weakness indeed.

The resolution followed lawful process that was backed by Law and enforced for development. The settlement is reinforced by the judgment of High Court No. 11 in Suit No. K/M1638/2026 delivered on 18th August 2026, which declared the acquisition lawful and directed government to compensate verified claims. What the state is currently doing is just that.

Part of the resolution process suggests that with effect from 31st August 2026, all land within BUK’s demarcated boundaries would be protected exclusively for the university. Government infrastructure corridors will also be secured. The Governor warned that “Our compassion must never be mistaken for weakness.” And that obstruction or fresh encroachment would be met with firm enforcement.

In what I termed as from crisis to progress: the bigger vision, it is noteworthy to know that the Governor linked the resolution to his administration’s wider development agenda, emphasizing that peace is the foundation for progress.

Touching other areas he acknowledged that “… In Education, we declared a State of Emergency. In Health, we introduced free caesarean-section services. In Water, we approved ₦21.89 billion for Challawa and Tamburawa plants. In Agriculture, we gave ₦1 billion in free fertiliser to 52,800 farmers. In Roads, we are rehabilitating 17 metropolitan roads.”

While he further elaborated that “This is the same spirit in which we approached BUK–Rimin Zakara. We are rebuilding confidence in government’s capacity to solve difficult problems,” he then commended BUK’s Vice-Chancellor, Governing Council and management for their “… patience, maturity and genuine commitment to peace… ” and urged Rimin Zakara, Rijiyar Zaki communities, traditional and religious leaders to safeguard the agreement.

The Governor who was represented by the Commissioner for Public Procurement, Projects Monitoring and Evaluation, Ma’aji,, got a standing ovation when he said, “Today, by the grace of Almighty Allah, a crisis of five decades has an end. Now is the time to move from crisis to development, and from dispute to progress.”

With this all-encompassing peace deal of 50 years long, there are attendant benefits attached to it.
The resolution will definitely yield security and stability. While ending the decades of confrontation, litigation and community tension, peace will now reign in the community and other surrounding communities. This is peace at work.

As a cool way for institutional growth, BUK can now proceed with lecture theatres, laboratories, hospitals and hostels without encumbrances. Resolution gives peace a chance. Corridor for shelter and livelihood now comes to the fore. Thousands of families who bought land in good faith now have legal plots and a path to compensation.

Through the Commissioner for Land, Umar, the thrust of urban planning strategy can now proceed without any hindrance from these communities. The era of proper layouts, roads and infrastructure without illegal sub-division, that remained elusive for decades, is now in place. And indeed investor confidence is restored. Where a clear legal boundary restores confidence in land administration and public institutions in Kano. Weldone the people’s Governor.

Both BUK and Rimin Zakara representatives, Prof Tsauni and Habu, commended the effort of the the Commissioner for Land, Umar, in his unrelenting efforts during the crisis and during the resolution exercises. Assuring that the Commissioner got the courage as a result of the goodwill spirit he got from the Governor. Letters of Grant were distributed to the members of the communities affected. As compensation and other verifications are on top gear.

Anwar writes from Kano
Tuesday, 1st September, 2026

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Opinion

Bello Sharada: A Great Writer, A Bookish Soul, Gone Too Soon

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By Abba Anwar

I received the information about the sad and peaceful passing of a great writer and one of the bookish minds amongst his peers, whose writings, as a commentator, cut across our culture, governance, politics, geography and religious thought, as very shocking and unbearable!

Before the few paragraphs coming below, let me express my condolences to his immediate family first, then the former Governor of Kano State, Malam Ibrahim Shekarau, Malam Aminu Gusau, Malam Abubakar Mujahid, Malam Aminu Inuwa Muhammad, Malam Nura Adam Galadanchi, Malam Nafi’u Zangon Barebari, Malam Ibrahim Ado-Kurawa, Malam Ahmad Shu’aibu, Malam Muhammad Bakari Mika’il, all workers and volunteers of Al-Tajdid Hausa newspaper and all workers of Al-Tajdid Pharmacy, Sabon Titi.

A great loss of this magnitude is heartbreaking and very difficult to cope with. I first came to know Bello Sharada for close to three decades now. When struggle was the order of the day. Our youthful exuberance was glaringly visible and energizing.

From day one I understood that Malam Bello had a flair for writing. Especially on Islamic revivalism and struggle. Since then I knew he loved reading, reading and more reading. At later days, apart from comments on Islamic development, he also resorted to further engage in social and political commentary. Especially after the return of democracy in the country, in 1999.

As calmed and reserved as he was, he still liked discussions on politics, economy and governance. He didn’t hide his feelings about our nation, at the level of leadership and followers. Not minding whose ox was gored. So long as he believed with an opinion, after thorough research and discussions, he wrote his inner feeling for the public. Go and check some of his writings.

He did not hold back in amplifying what his conscience was clear on. As typical writers behave, they highlight certain traits that go down well with you today. And tomorrow they articulate what may not be palatable for your table. You know why? They don’t look at personalities, but other abstract realities. They observe attitudes, behaviors and realities.

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Malam Bello was an embodiment of simplicity, good human relations, upright, and open discussions around many issues. The way he talked to other people gave insight of the kind of person he was. Very polite and selectively reserved. He related with people with respect and embracing engagement.

The way he handled Al-Tajdid newspaper was amazing and appealing. The editorial contents were catchy and convincing. As a religious source for information around us, then, amongst Hausa readers, there was semblance, to a higher degree, of objectivity and fairness in its reportage and other analyses.

He was glued to Al-Tajdid newspaper, that came to newsstand to offer an alternative to Sheikh Ibrahim Zakzaky’s Al-Mizan, that was managed by a good friend of mine Malam Danjuma Katsina. Whether Al-Tajdid was able to counter Al-Mizan to size, was a different story for another day. But today we are mourning the demise of our good friend of great substance.

As quintessential as he was, Malam Bello, was always in the social media and in the air via radio stations, creating awareness on many issues affecting our society. Be it from the lens of our religion or our culture, governance and leaders, followers and other societal settings. His major and particular interest was to see that our people are informed and wise enough to understand realities of life.

There was a scenario between the two of us when he once met me in my office, when I was the Features Editor of Triumph Newspaper, around 2005 and 2006, that time Al-Tajdid Islamic movement was, I think 10 years of 15 years at the time, I can’t remember the years vividly, he brought literature on how the movement started up to the time he met me in the office.

For younger readers, Al-Tajdid was a splinter group, exited from Sheikh Zakzaky’s movement many decades ago. The group then was led by people like Malam Abubakar Mujahid Zaria, Malam Aminu Gusau, Malam Ahmad Shu’aibu, Malam Aminu Inuwa Muhammad, Malam Nura Adam, Malam Nafi’u Zangon Barebari, amongst others.

Back to my office. When Malam Bello met me he put all the papers about Al-Tajdid history and said “Malam Abba we are celebrating the birth of Al-Tajdid. We need an article to be written by you, the Editor, and published in tomorrow’s or next tomorrow’s Triumph Newspaper please. I know you can do it. So I will tell my people that I gave you. So that they can expect it probably tomorrow.”

We laughed and he left. To Allah be the glory I worked hard and made sure it was published the following day. The very time he came calling I was busy editing four pages of articles for the following day publication. Because I always edited four pages daily. For the Daily paper and sometimes, but in rare cases, one or two pages for the Sunday Triumph.

But Allah Helped, I went through the literature brought by Malam Bello, I was able to finish the write – up and went back to three out of the four articles. Because Malam Bello’s work replaced the fourth page.

May Allah forgive all his shortcomings and accept all his good deeds. May Allah reward him with Jannatul-Fiddaus. May Allah guide his family as he exited from this world.

To the family specifically, please don’t let his library, his study room die a natural death.

Allah Ya jikan Malam Bello Sharada.

Anwar writes from Kano
Sunday, 30th August, 2026

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