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Dangote refinery: Dangers of a single narrative – sifting facts from emotion | RICHARD AKINOLA

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Richard Akinola

 

When the Dangote refinery controversy blew up, naturally as someone wired to support anyone l perceive to be oppressed, this time, Dangote, l lined up in support of the richest man in Africa.

I perceived he was being unduly treated by the Downstream and Midstream regulators, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA). For days, l had heated arguments with people with opposing views on this matter. However, Ademola Adigun, one person l respect on this app, cautioned that people should not be too emotive on this matter but seek knowledge. I took that as a challenge.

Subsequently, in an attempt not to look foolish out of emotive consideration, l opened my mind to critically study the issues involved and even the nitty gritty technical details of the oil and gas system. And because l owe an obligation to educate people, l had to open up myself to information, researching on this issue and the petroleum sector, devoid of emotion.

While several groups of people, including one of my constituencies -the Civil society, have made pilgrimages to the humongous site of the Dangote refinery, unarguably, the largest private refinery in World, l decided, what in my opinion, was sifting facts from emotion. The issue has even reverberated in the hallowed Chambers of the House of Representatives, where the adhoc committee set up to investigate the issue, among other issues in the upstream and midstream petroleum section, was dissolved yesterday.

In a report today by Daily Nigeria, the Speaker, Abbas Tajuddeen, dissolved the committee over alleged compromise by some members of the committee who had exculpated the richest man in Africa, even before the assignment kicked off.

From my findings, there are three major critical issues that are affecting the operations of Dangote Refinery

1) CRUDE SUPPLY-FEEDSTOCK

It does appear that when Dangote was building the refinery, there were no proper arrangements on ground on how he will get feedstock for the refinery. His refinery is the largest single train refinery in the world.
Nobody builds and opens a refinery of this magnitude without refinery agreement to get feed stock. Dangote didn’t have a feedstock agreement for his refinery.

I have read where some people claimed that he has an agreement with NNPC Ltd but that arrangements was not a feed stock agreement. What happened with the NNPC arrangement was that during the project building phase, Dangote Refinery project got stuck and NNPC Ltd got the approval of the President to take equity.

Subsequently, the NNPC got a loan and paid $1bn as part of the 20 per cent equity while the rest was to be paid in crude supply.

The lack of feedstock was part of Dangote’s problem and he is now sourcing feedstock when the refinery is powered. So far, NNPC Ltd has given him 39 cargoes.

2) CRUDE OIL PRICES
Dangote’s claim that IOCs are selling crude oil to him at $6 per barrel above international price doesn’t seem to be true. What l discovered is that Crude oil has different grades. What he got from the US is WTI and the price is not the same as others.
Another key issue under pricing is that the margin of sale of crude oil is different because it is an international business. There is what is called market margin and it is usually from $1.5 to up to $20 per barrel.

There are several crude grades and Dangote Refinery uses different grades of crude to blend. So, when Dangote said he is importing from the United States, it is because he needs it as part of the grades to be used to blend in his refinery to produce petroleum products. His refinery needs several percentage of Bonny light, WTI and others to be able to blend very well. But he is using the fact that he imports from US to give the impression that he is importing from US and other countries, when in actual fact, is that he is sourcing different crude grades to blend.

Another critical point of under pricing is that the marketers buy this crude grades and add their own margin which ranges from $1.5 to $20 but the Nigerian government is giving it to Dangote at a margin of $0.5 per barrel which to me seems to me to be a good deal for him.

One other contentious issue is that Dangote is also persuading the regulator, to persuade the International Oil Companies to give him crude but the IOCs cannot do that because they have Production Sharing Contract (PSC) with the Nigerian government. Through the PSC, the IOCs produce, give Nigeria government its share and take the share of their crude and sell to marketers. Dangote didn’t enter any agreement with the IOCs to give him feedstock. What people must also know is that these IOCs borrow money from banks, invest in equipments, drill the oil fields, give government its share and take theirs, sell, recover their costs and make further investments.

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Also, Dangote wants to use the local refinery obligation to obfuscate issues but this is not working for him because the local refinery obligation, according to the PIA, is based on a willing buyer and willing seller arrangement. This means the product must be available, and the parties must agree on the price in line with Section 109 of the PIA, which deals with the National Crude Oil Requirement of Refineries. The section states that the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission shall base the allocation of the domestic crude oil supply obligation applicable to the respective lessees on the National Crude Oil Demand requirement supply curve, which is the supply curve of crude oil or condensate that can be supplied on a voluntary basis at the prevailing international market price.

3) DOWNSTREAM
On the controversial issue of licensing of Dangote Refinery, while it has the license to build the plant, the refinery does not have license that covers other parts of its operations.

For monopoly, Dangote is asking the regulator to direct all oil marketers to get petroleum products from his refinery. But the question to ask is: Can Dangote guarantee Nigeria three billion liters of petroleum products per day in strategic national reserves for 32 days and not sell it? As a business entity, for Dangote to keep these products in strategic national reserves without selling them will lead to huge losses for him.

For the regulator to give Dangote that monopoly that he asking means that the business of other oil marketers would be killed and this is against the policy of deregulation because marketers should be allowed to import so there can be healthy competition.

Another critical point to note is that Dangote Refinery operates in a free trade zone and he will be exempted from paying tax to government. This is a loss of revenue to the government. The petroleum products from the refinery would be sold in foreign currency instead of naira to Nigerians as oil marketers who want to buy from there will fill form M (Importers form) in the bank.

Another contentious issue is the sulphur content in the petroleum products. It was reported in the media that the NMDPRA has minimum of 11 staff members in Dangote Refinery and all other local Refineries. The test of the petroleum products from the refinery are done daily and sent to the regulator. This means the regulator knows what they are saying when they stated that the product is inferior.

One worrisome aspect of the whole arrangement is that Dangote will need a minimum of $1.8bn working capital to operate the refinery and no bank would be willing to give it to him because he appears to be at a financial tight corner.

This was further confirmed with yesterday’s International Fitch ratings which downgraded the Dangote industries Limited, reflecting the precarious liquidity position of the business conglomerate.

The report stated inter alia that the group’s liquidity position, “followed lower than expected disposal proceeds, operational and financial underperformance compared to our prior expectations, also affected by local currency devaluation, and lack of contracted backup funding to repay its significant debt facilities maturing on 31 August 2024….We view the lack of DIL’s audited accounts for 2023 as a corporate governance issue. The RWN reflects uncertainty related to the group’s ability to refinance maturing debt.

“Lack of tangible steps to refinance or repay the maturing debt would lead to further downgrade while we do not expect a positive rating action until the company’s liquidity position improves substantially.”

I love Dangote and his can-do spirit, the reason l initially was emotive when this controversy broke when l felt he was being unduly treated but my study of the whole scenario has changed my perspective. I want him to succeed but he too has to do the needful. The monopolistic mindset which he carried from his cement business cannot work in the deregulated petroleum sector. More importantly, he needs a pragmatic approach to solve his liquidity challenges in this petroleum sector, which, with the benefit of hindsight, he underestimated, based on the seeming hand-in-gloves relationship he had with the previous leadership of the CBN, where it appeared he had “easy” access to funds.

Soji Adekunmbi, an Abuja based public policy analyst, in an article in The Cable, proffered solutions to Dangote to enable him navigate the humongous financial quagmire he seems to have found himself, when he posited: “A few options are available to Dangote but the most viable of them is that he should consider divesting some of his shares in the refinery. It may seem a difficult option but it is the best for him given the circumstances.

There are business entities who took a similar path when confronted with some of the challenges seemingly facing Dangote. In Saudi Arabia, the Saudi government sold Aramco, the national oil company to the public when it faced difficulties.

Even Microsoft founder, Bill Gates sold off a majority of his stake in the company retaining a mere five percent interest in the business. Gates took that route after facing anti-trade court cases following Microsoft’s monopolistic nature, which had caused the collapse of several IT companies.

Dangote should do the needful by selling shares to Nigerians as it is obvious given the intricate nature of business in the oil and gas sector particularly the huge capital outlay required to keep a business going, he cannot pull it off alone.”

Opinion

Kano Governor Yusuf Shortlisted for Africa’s SANKOFA Award of Excellence in Infrastructural Development

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By Abba Anwar

Kano State Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf makes a list of potential Awardees across West African sub-region, observed and screened by an African association named Réseau des Jeunes du Sahel pour le Progrès, le Développement et la Démocratie (Network of Sahel Youth for Progress, Development and Democracy), on infrastructural development in their respective states.

The top most Award from the association, called Sankofa Award of Excellence across various sectors, is given to people or leaders who excel in their respective areas of work or responsibilities.

With the recent disclosure made by the Commissioner of Public Procurement, Projects Monitoring and Evaluation, Nura Ma’aji Sumaila, on the state of infrastructural development and payments of contracts in the state, the association included Kano to be part of the states across Nigeria and West African countries, screened for an Award of Excellence.

Source close to the association reveals that, Governor Yusuf’s achievements in the area of infrastructural development, could not be neglected and the Governor stands a better position to be seen and amplified across the globe. As a result of his commitment and service to humanity.

Parts of the major reasons that informed the association’s decision to include Governor Yusuf for Sankofa Award of Excellence for Infrastructural Development in West Africa is his genuine inclusion of infrastructures that are human centred, modern, location specified and standardization process and procedures.

According to the source, the Screening Committee saddled with the responsibility of selecting qualified personalities across West Africa are in their final stage of releasing the result. Assuring that, under infrastructural development, Kano excels. Though not officially announced.

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When Governor Yusuf gets this Award, he will be the second person from Nigeria who bags the Award. Last year the Deputy Senate President Barau I Jibrin, PhD, CFR, got the SANKOFA Award for Legislative Excellence in Africa. Coincidentally, Governor Yusuf who is also from Kano state, would be the second Nigerian in this category.

The President of the association Mr Fassoko Doumbia, from Mali, confirmed to my source that, from all indication, “Kano State Governor, from Nigeria, Mr Abba Kabir Yusuf is in the forefront of those screened for the Award.”

With this recognition of excellence, the Award places Governor Yusuf to be one of the best Nigerian governors. And the best across West Africa on infrastructural development. One good thing about the Award is, it will as well serve as an engine oil for state commitment and unwavering service delivery.

Mr Doumbia reveals further that “… it is amazing looking at the unmatched number of completed and ongoing projects as Kano has 799 completed projects and 709 projects at various stages of completion. It is encouraging to see that Governor Yusuf is executing over 1,508 developmental projects across all 44 LGAs.”

What keeps hope and commitment alive are the transparent monitoring, evaluation and effective payment to contractors. Of which out of N928 Billion of the total contract sum, the state has already paid over N600 Billion, that’s 64.7% payment rate.
Unlike in many states in Nigeria and West Africa. The association believes that Kano institutionalized transparency through the Ministry of Public Procurement, Projects Monitoring and Evaluation.

The screening committee appreciated Kano’s strategic and balanced infrastructure spread, between urban and rural areas plus improved security. For urban renewal it has the sum of N169 Billion. While there are 5km roads in 38 LGAs with the sum of N118 Billion. They appreciated the rural infrastructure across 44 LGAs with the sum of N397 Billion for roads, education, healthcare, and social services.

While under security infrastructure the total sum of N6.863 Billion for Neighborhood Security Watch offices in 36 LGAs. This assured deliberate, balanced development with value for money, quality delivery, and measurable impact on the lives of the people. All courtesy Governor Yusuf.

It serves also as indices of how Governor Yusuf makes the list for such Award, that his infrastructures are signals for the delivery of landmark, human-centered projects as Kano completed tangible projects that directly improve lives of the citizenry, with 40 metropolitan roads, 44 PHCs, 120 schools, 5 water plants, with the ongoing Dan Agundi and Tal’udu flyovers at over 80% completion.

It has also been discovered that, Kano enjoys proven technical leadership and political will. Which glaringly displays the political will and technical competence required to drive massive infrastructure without corruption or delays. This is part of the major engagements being identified, which eventually resulted into the popular Sankofa Award of Excellence.

Anwar writes from Kano
Saturday, 25th July, 2026

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Opinion

Beyond the Numbers: What the Ekiti 2026 Governorship Results Reveal About Coalition Politics and Path to 2027

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By Abass Sherifat Taiwo

Returning Officer Adenike Oladiji, a professor and Vice-Chancellor of the Federal University of Technology, announced the results in the early hours of Sunday, at roughly 3:13 a.m. Incumbent Governor Biodun Oyebanji of the APC won comfortably, polling 319,224 votes across the state’s 16 local government areas. His closest challenger, the PDP’s Oluwole Oluyede, trailed far behind with 40,543 votes, while the ADC’s Dare Bejide came in third with 12,872 votes.

Of the 384,940 voters accredited for the election, 375,777 cast valid votes, a validity rate of about 97.6%, suggesting relatively few spoiled or rejected ballots.

Oyebanji’s win carries added weight as the first consecutive re-election in Ekiti’s history, a state known for unseating incumbents since 1999. His dominance was also total: he won all sixteen LGAs, and even his closest contest, in Ikere, was still a comfortable margin. His five strongest councils alone delivered nearly half his statewide votes, showing concentrated rather than thin support.

Elite alignment mattered too. For the first time, every living former Ekiti governor backed his re-election, leaving the opposition without any prominent defectors to rally behind. This unified backing functioned as a coordinated endorsement strategy, a visible signal of consensus that opposition parties had no comparable message to counter.

Between the opposition parties, PDP’s showing is more telling than ADC’s. ADC placing third as a newer platform isn’t surprising, but PDP, a long-established national party, barely crossed 3,000 votes in most councils, pointing to weak grassroots structure rather than just a bad cycle. The deeper question is whether this reflects a structural failure or a failure to sustain visibility and message presence at the ward level between election cycles.

Party | Votes | % of Valid Votes
APC | 319,224 | 84.95%
PDP | 40,543 | 10.79%
ADC | 12,872 | 3.43%
ADP | ~1,289 | 0.34%
Accord | 564 | 0.15%
LP | ~263 | 0.07%
AAC | ~188 | 0.05%

When the vote totals of every opposition party are combined, they amount to roughly 55,719 votes, or about 14.83% of all valid votes cast, a stark contrast to the APC’s dominant 84.95% share on its own. Even in a hypothetical scenario where every opposition party ran on a single, fully united ticket, their combined total would still fall short of the APC’s by approximately 263,505 votes. This gap illustrates just how commanding Oyebanji’s victory was: it was not simply a matter of a divided opposition splitting votes among several parties, but a result that would have withstood even total opposition unity.

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Following the Ekiti result, APC framed it as proof of growing national support ahead of 2027, pointing to the rise in its vote totals in the state from about 187,000 in 2022 to roughly 318,000 in 2026, and projecting even higher numbers for Tinubu in 2027. Opposition parties, including the ADC and SDP, pushed back, arguing that Ekiti’s off-cycle, low-turnout nature makes it a poor predictor of a national contest.

Both claims need scrutiny. APC’s growth trend is real, but it happened in a state the party already governs, where incumbency and federal attention worked in its favour, so it says more about consolidating an existing stronghold than expanding into contested territory. The opposition’s caution is fair, but understates that APC’s structural advantages, incumbency and federal resources, aren’t unique to Ekiti and could repeat elsewhere. The more accurate takeaway is that Ekiti confirms APC’s strength where it already holds power, without proving it can replicate that in genuinely competitive states by 2027.

ADC’s third-place finish in Ekiti, just 3.43% of the vote, looks unremarkable on its own, but it only makes sense next to the party’s national story. A year earlier, ADC had positioned itself as the face of a new opposition coalition, pulling in heavyweight names like Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi with the promise of a unified front against the APC. That promise hasn’t held: Obi and Kwankwaso have since defected to a rival platform, the NDC, while ADC battles leadership disputes and court cases that put its own 2027 participation in doubt.

That is the real lesson here for coalition politics as a communication problem, not just a structural one. ADC did not fail for lack of big names, it had plenty. What it could not do was hold one coherent message together once multiple egos and regional bases began pulling in different directions. Whether it can still become the platform it promised by 2027 is uncertain, but Ekiti is an early sign of a bigger unraveling.

Beyond Ekiti, the result speaks to a deeper pattern in Nigerian opposition politics: alliances are far easier to announce than to sustain. This suggests APC’s greatest advantage going into the next general election may not be its own performance, but the opposition’s continued inability to stay united. The near-total validity rate and one-sided outcome in Ekiti also raise questions about how genuinely competitive Nigeria’s state elections currently are, and whether low-turnout, off-cycle polls like this one can reliably signal national voter sentiment.

The Ekiti result is less a story about Oyebanji’s popularity alone than about the opposition’s structural fragility. Even a fully united opposition ticket would not have closed the gap, which means the problem isn’t vote-splitting, it’s organisational weakness, unstable coalitions, and the absence of a party capable of matching APC’s machinery and incumbency advantages. What Nigeria’s opposition needs before 2027 isn’t just structural unity, but a coherent, disciplined communication strategy capable of sustaining one message across factions, something no coalition has yet demonstrated. Until Nigeria’s opposition can build a coalition that survives contact with real electoral pressure, results like Ekiti’s are likely to repeat themselves in APC strongholds heading into 2027.

By Abass Sherifat Taiwo
Department of Development and Strategic communication University of Abuja
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Opinion

Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf Has Earned a Vote of Confidence on Education

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By Hon. Muhammad Sanusi S. Kiru, FCIA
(Former Commissioner of Education, Kano State)

There comes a time in public discourse when fairness must prevail over partisanship and facts must take precedence over preconceived opinions. That moment has come in my assessment of the educational reforms being implemented by the administration of His Excellency, Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf.

As a former Commissioner of Education and someone who has consistently evaluated government performance with candour, I owe the people of Kano State an honest appraisal of the Governor’s performance in the education sector. After objectively reviewing the administration’s interventions from 2024 to 2026, particularly its determined efforts to address the acute shortage of teachers, I have reached an inescapable conclusion: Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf deserves a vote of confidence for his outstanding commitment to the development of education in Kano State.

One of the greatest challenges confronting our educational system has been the persistent shortage of teachers, resulting in unfavourable teacher-pupil and teacher-student ratios across many public schools. This problem has adversely affected the quality of teaching and learning for many years.

The present administration has confronted this challenge with courage and determination. Between 2024 and 2026, the government recruited or absorbed 8,715 permanent teachers and engaged 3,688 temporary BESDA Cohort V teachers, bringing the documented total to 12,403 education personnel. With recruitments by other education agencies, the overall figure is widely estimated at approximately 13,000 teachers.

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This represents one of the largest teacher recruitment exercises in the history of Kano State. More importantly, it is a strategic investment in the future of our children and in the long-term development of the state. By substantially reducing the teacher deficit, the administration has strengthened both the basic and post-basic education subsectors and created a stronger foundation for improved educational outcomes. The new recruitment not only means making our classrooms more vibrant and ensuring that teaching is consistently taking place, but it also signifies a positive shift in the narrative reflected in monitoring reports, the annual school census, and national personnel data.

Looking at the tangible achievements now before us, particularly in education, it is clear that the administration has made significant and commendable progress. Leadership should always be judged by measurable accomplishments, and in this regard, the Governor has acquitted himself admirably.

One area where the administration must, however, improve is public communication. Many of its remarkable achievements have not received the publicity they deserve. A well-coordinated and effective publicity strategy would ensure that citizens fully appreciate the scope and impact of these landmark interventions.

As His Excellency prepares to personally attend the special ceremony for the presentation of appointment letters to the newly employed teachers on Tuesday, 21st July 2026, I consider it appropriate to congratulate him on this historic milestone. The ceremony is more than a presentation of appointment letters; it is a celebration of renewed hope for thousands of families, a reaffirmation of government’s commitment to quality education, and a significant step towards building a stronger educational system for future generations.

I wish His Excellency a successful and hitch-free ceremony and pray that Almighty Allah grants him wisdom, good health, and continued strength to sustain the ongoing transformation of the education sector. May this programme mark the beginning of even greater achievements in the quest to provide every child in Kano State with access to quality education delivered by competent and dedicated teachers.

Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf deserves sincere commendation for these giant strides. If this policy of continuous recruitment and investment in teachers is sustained, it will undoubtedly be remembered as one of the defining legacies of his administration. Future generations will look back on this period as a turning point in the educational history of Kano State.

I therefore extend my heartfelt congratulations to His Excellency and offer him a well-deserved vote of confidence. I also wish him every success as he formally presents appointment letters to these newly recruited teachers on Tuesday. May the occasion be memorable, successful, and another milestone in the march towards educational excellence in Kano State.

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