A historical analysis reveals how Nigeria’s democracy repeatedly succumbs to one-party dominance, with the current regime being worst as it perfects the playbook of past eras.

By Yusuf Danjuma Yunusa

Dominant-party politics—where one party consistently controls political power while opposition exists but faces significant systemic disadvantages—has manifested at various points in Nigeria’s political history. While the current situation under President Bola Tinubu’s APC-led administration is evidently worst as it shows concerning trends toward a total dominance, historical precedents exist, particularly during the First Republic and the prolonged military eras that indirectly shaped party systems.

In The First Republic(1963-1966)

Nigeria’s first experiment with multiparty democracy effectively functioned as a “three-dominant-party system” at the regional level:

If checked critically in the Northern region as at that time, the Northern People’s Congress (NPC) held virtually unassailable dominance, leveraging the feudal structure, ethnic solidarity (Hausa-Fulani), and control of Native Authority police and taxation. Opposition parties like the Northern Elements Progressive Union (NEPU) were systematically marginalized.

While in the Western region, the Action Group (AG) under Chief Obafemi Awolowo dominated until the 1962–63 crisis, which split the party and led to a federal government-backed takeover by the Nigerian National Democratic Party (NNDP).

In the Eastern region the National Council of Nigerian Citizens (NCNC) held sway, though with more competitive politics than the North.

It’s worth noting that this was regionalized dominance rather than a single nationwide dominant party. The federal government was a fragile NPC-NCNC coalition.

In The Second Republic(1979-1983)

The National Party of Nigeria (NPN) emerged as a nationwide dominant party in the second republic.

It won the presidency with Shehu Shagari as its candidate without a clear popular majority. But through patronage, co-optation of opponents (“boarding the bus”), and control of federal resources, the NPN gained “surprise” gubernatorial victories and parliamentary seats, particularly in the 1983 elections—which was widely viewed as heavily rigged.

It used federal might to unseat opposition governors, a good example of it which is the Ondo State saga, through controversial judicial processes.

National Party of Nigeria(NPN) had a parallel mode of operations to today’s administration of President Tinubu. The party was also a broad, pragmatic coalition of elites from multiple regions–like the APC–using control of the petroleum boom economy to reward loyalty and fellowship.

In the military era, there usually would be nothing as party politics. Military rule suppressed party politics entirely but orchestrated networks and a centralized federal might that later shaped civilian dominant-party tendencies.

This was evident in the 1989–1993 two-party experiment (SDP and NRC) imposed by Gen. Babangida. It was an artificial, state-created duopoly—not genuine multiparty competition.

The Fourth Republic(1999-Present Day)

The Peoples Democratic Party(PDP) was the first national dominant party in the history of Nigeria.

The party held the Presidency, National Assembly majority, and most governorships for 16 consecutive years.

It employed massive patronage, control of INEC and security forces, and corruption of electoral processes especially under the 2007 election, described as “do-or-die” by President Obasanjo.

Opposition victories were rare to see with only Lagos, ANPP strongholds as the opposition voice. Although victories were possible, just that there were rare, it showed that the system was competitive, authoritarian rather than full one-party rule.

Dominance ended in 2015 due to internal fragmentation (the 2013–14 defection of the “nPDP” bloc to APC) and widespread public discontent over insecurity and corruption, not via a level playing field.

In 2015, APC’s era came and won the presidency (Buhari) and, by 2023, controlled 22 of 36 states.

By 2024 till this very moment in 2025, the ruling APC has been massively receiving politicians from the main opposition PDP and others into its fold. The most recent of it was the defection of governor Fubara of Rivers State.

The tsunami has left the PDP with just 5 governors now: governor Fintiri of Adamawa State, Dauda Lawal of Zamfara State, Caleb Muftwang of Plateau State, governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State, and Bala Mohammed of Bauchi State.

Governor Agbu Kefas of Taraba State and governor Adeleke of Osun State would have been the sixth and seventh governors for the party respectively, but reports have it that the former has also defected to the APC. Although, official declaration for that is yet to happen as it has been scheduled to hold next year January, 2026.

While governor Adeleke has officially joined the Accord Party and has picked the gubernatorial form for his second tenure.

Reports also have it that governor Caleb Muftwang of Plateau State is one step away from joining the ruling All Progressives Congress, citing heightened differences between him and some of the state executives of APC as the impediment to his official alignment.

The party, APC, now commands a supermajority capable of constitutional amendments without opposition support with 73 Senators and 175 Representatives.

It has also 28 governors in total, leaving the opposition parties with 8.

5–for PDP
1–for LP
1–for NNPP
1–for Accord Party

The Mechanisms of Dominance

Speaking with a public affairs analyst and political scientist, Austin Patrick, he shared that history has shown that financial advantage has been the tool in which ruling party use to dominate since democratic era.

“The control of oil revenues, state contracts, the capture of NNPC, CBN, and other agencies; alleged use of anti-graft agencies to pressure opponents are different mechanisms in which the ruling party use to dominate.”

He continued, “we all know that the Okowa case with the EFCC will no longer come to the public after his defection to the APC.”

Mr. Austin also emphasized on the judicial favouritism which the country has been witnessing in recent times, citing the position of court as the final arbiter in recent times.

“Courts now play an unprecedented role in determining election winners—over 80% of petitions in the 2023 cycle were dismissed on technicalities rather than merits,” he said.

On the other hand, Dr. Kabir Sufi, who is also a political analyst, opined that the APC’s dominance is largely attributed to structural advantages and the factions in the opposition parties.

“Well, the combination of the APC’s usage of structural advantages and fragmentation of the opposition contribute to how bigger and wider the ruling party has become.”

He also highlighted on the rumor by many Nigerians that the said fragmentation and weakness of the opposition is largely the orchestration of the APC itself.

The Dangers Of One-Party System

Dr. Sufi asserted that the dangers of one party system is largely on democracy itself rather than intergovernmental relations and federalism spirit.

“The implications are mostly for democracy itself, it’s not allowing the opposition to thrive.”

“The advantages in which oppositions are to enjoy are not actually realistic,” he added.

Although Dr. Sufi acknowledged that there are a lot of factors that have allowed the situation to become what it is today.

Meanwhile, Mr. Austin was of the opinion that the danger of one party system is ultimately accountability erosion.

“Weak opposition breeds legislative and fiscal oversight.”

He noted that with no external threat, APC may become more autocratic, stifling pragmatic democracy.

Mr. Austin also stated that one party dominance contributes to voter apathy among citizens.

“The belief that elections don’t change outcomes may depress turnout and fuel political violence.”

Moreover, Dr. Sufi, when asked if the opposition have any chance to unsit the APC in the coming 2027 presidential election, said that:

“With the wave of defections to the APC, the task may be getting harder for the opposition unless if there’s an implosion within APC.”

Summarily, while it’s evident that Nigeria is on the verge of becoming a one-party nation, it’s worth noting that it’s not yet completely a one-party state. Multiple parties still exist and compete, but it exhibits clear dominant-party authoritarian characteristics similar to the PDP’s peak (2003–2011).

The difference is that the current opposition is more fragmented and demoralized than in the past.

A thorough examination will reveal to one that dominant-party politics in Nigeria follows a cyclical pattern: a party gains power, uses state resources to entrench itself, becomes corrupt and fragmented, then collapses from internal splits rather than electoral defeat. The APC appears to be in the entrenchment phase, Nigerian Tracker News observed.

Yusuf Danjuma Yunusa is a freelance journalist and a reporter with the Nigerian Tracker News. He can be reached via: theonlygrandeur@gmail.com or 07069180810

The Kano State Governor, Alhaji Abba Kabir Yusuf, has approved the immediate establishment of a Special Task Force to decisively tackle security threats at motor parks and other strategic public spaces across the state.

This was contained in a statement signed by the governor’s spokesperson, Sunusi Bature Dawakin Tofa on Sunday.

The decision was part of the governor’s firm resolve to prevent criminal infiltration and safeguard Kano State, particularly at key entry and exit points within the metropolitan area.

Motor parks have been identified as high-risk locations due to increased human movement and recent security developments, including the arrest of suspected miscreants at Kofar Ruwa Motor Park.

The task force will conduct intensive surveillance, intelligence gathering, and coordinated security operations at motor parks and other vulnerable locations.

Its operations will also extend to ancillary areas such as filling stations and public spaces where transient populations often congregate.

Governor Yusuf said the measure is a proactive step aimed at neutralising threats before they escalate, strengthening inter-agency coordination, and restoring public confidence.

He reaffirmed his administration’s zero-tolerance stance on criminality and its unwavering commitment to fully support security agencies in protecting lives and property.

By Yusuf Danjuma Yunusa

Bayelsa State Governor, Senator Douye Diri, has directed that an autopsy be carried out on his late deputy, Senator Lawrence Ewhrudjakpo, to medically determine the cause of his death.

“I have directed that an autopsy be carried out to reveal the cause of his death. There is a lot of nonsense going on on social media. If anyone is issuing a statement to eulogise him, let it end there and allow us to mourn him because the state is in a mourning mood,” Diri said.

Governor Diri gave the directive during a condolence visit by former President, Dr Goodluck Jonathan, to him and the Ewhrudjakpo family on Saturday at the Government House, Yenagoa, noting that a lot was being said about the death on social media.

The former president Goodluck Jonathan, who was also once a deputy governor of the state, described the death as a sad moment for all Bayelsans and recalled how Ewhrudjakpo represented Diri and mobilised the state House of Assembly and Executive Council to the Jonathan Foundation’s Democracy Dialogue programme in Benin, Edo State.

He said, “For me, he was somebody my foundation and I will never forget. He represented the governor in all our programmes.

“This year in Accra, Ghana, he did the same. On November 20 this year, he also mobilised assembly members and commissioners to Abuja to celebrate the 10th anniversary of the Goodluck Ebele Jonathan Foundation.

“Whenever I am having a programme, Bayelsa State is always represented. It is quite a sad moment for all of us.”

Jonathan described Ewhrudjakpo as very humble, saying nobody had anything negative to say about him.

The governor, Diri Duoye, also cautioned against the politicization of Ewhrudjakpo’s death, particularly on social media, urging the public to respect the mood of mourning in the state.

“I want to make an appeal. I have seen people politicising his death. In Ijaw land, there is no enmity in death. Let nobody politicise the passing of our dearly beloved deputy governor. If anyone loves him, this is the time to show it,” he said.

The governor expressed appreciation to Jonathan for standing with the state during both good and challenging times.