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How Tinubu Betrayed the Muslim North: A Diagnosis of Promises, Power, and Political Backstabbing

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4 months ago

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By Mohammed Bello Doka

We have been hearing funny questions in recent months, asked with a mix of sarcasm and denial: How exactly did Bola Tinubu betray the Muslim North? This article is a response to that question. Not emotion. Not sentiment. Not hatred. This is politics, reduced to its bare essentials: numbers, choices, consequences, and survival. If accusations are anything to go by, they are not inventions; they are reactions to observable facts. And facts, once assembled honestly, do not care about comfort.

The 2023 presidential election marked a deliberate rupture with Nigeria’s post-1999 conventions. Bola Tinubu chose a Muslim–Muslim ticket, fully aware of its implications. This was not accidental, nor was it imposed on him. It was defended vigorously across the North as a necessary sacrifice in the national interest. Muslim voters in the North were told, directly and indirectly, that competence mattered more than sentiment, that religion should not divide them, and that the ticket was a strategic gamble that would pay off in influence, inclusion, and protection. The Muslim North accepted this argument and delivered.

The numbers are not disputed. According to INEC’s final, state-by-state results, the North-West and North-East—Nigeria’s core Muslim-majority zones—produced close to ten million valid votes in the 2023 election. In Kano alone, a Muslim-majority stronghold, Tinubu secured over 517,000 votes, while Peter Obi managed barely 28,000. In Jigawa, Tinubu polled more than 421,000 votes; Obi did not reach 2,000. Katsina gave Tinubu about 482,000 votes to Obi’s roughly 6,000. Kebbi delivered nearly 250,000 votes for Tinubu; Zamfara close to 300,000. In Yobe and Borno, Tinubu again outpolled Obi by margins so wide they require no embellishment. When votes from Muslim-leaning North-Central states such as Niger, Nasarawa, Kwara, and Kogi are added, Tinubu’s support base in Muslim northern communities rises to between 3.8 and 4.9 million votes. That bloc alone formed a decisive pillar of his national victory.

Now compare this with what happened in Northern Christian-majority areas. In Plateau State, Peter Obi polled about 466,000 votes, while Tinubu secured roughly 307,000. In Benue, Obi’s 308,000 votes nearly matched Tinubu’s 310,000, despite Benue never having been a Labour Party stronghold. In the Federal Capital Territory, a demographically mixed but largely Christian-leaning territory, Obi recorded 281,717 votes against Tinubu’s 90,902—more than a three-to-one margin. In southern Taraba, voting patterns followed the same logic. These are not anecdotes; they are consistent results pointing to a clear pattern: Muslim northern communities voted overwhelmingly for Tinubu, while Christian northern communities aligned electorally with Christian-majority southern zones.

This pattern did not emerge by accident. For decades, Northern politics subsumed religious differences under a broader regional consensus. Christians and Muslims in the North often voted together, driven by shared interests in federal power, security, and economic leverage. In 2023, that consensus fractured. Christian-majority areas of the North no longer voted as part of a Northern bloc; they voted as part of a national Christian alignment. That fracture did not begin at the grassroots. It followed elite political decisions that elevated religious identity from a background factor into a central organising principle of national power.

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Having delivered the votes, the Muslim North expected returns. In politics, expectations are not moral demands; they are transactional realities. What followed instead was a growing sense of exclusion. Vice-President Kashim Shettima, presented as proof of northern inclusion, has exercised no visible institutional power commensurate with the region’s contribution. Unlike Atiku Abubakar, who as vice-president chaired the National Economic Council and drove privatisation policy, or Yemi Osinbajo, who chaired key reform committees and acted as president multiple times, Shettima has no defining portfolio. He does not control economic policy. He does not lead the national security architecture. He does not arbitrate party power. His presence is symbolic, not structural.

Appointments have reinforced this perception. Power in Abuja is not measured by the number of northerners in government; it is measured by where decision-making authority sits. Since May 2023, strategic economic and fiscal power has been perceived—rightly or wrongly, but persistently—to be concentrated within a narrow circle outside the Muslim North’s political reach. In Nigerian politics, sustained perception becomes reality. Regions do not rebel because they are ignored once; they react because they feel ignored consistently.

Insecurity has deepened this sense of betrayal. According to data from ACLED and corroborated by local security analysts, the North-West remains the epicentre of banditry and mass kidnapping. Thousands have been killed or displaced since Tinubu assumed office. Farmlands across Zamfara, Katsina, Kaduna, and Niger states remain unsafe, directly threatening food security. Yet there has been no decisive break from past security failures. No doctrine shift. No overwhelming show of force that signals a new era. Instead, communities are left to negotiate survival, often informally, while the federal response remains incremental and cautious.

The handling of negotiations with armed groups has compounded the anger. Several northern states continue to engage bandits through intermediaries, amnesty offers, or ransom-mediated releases. These practices predate Tinubu, but the absence of a clear federal prohibition or framework under his administration has consequences. In security studies, this creates moral hazard. Violence becomes a bargaining tool. The blunt question many northerners ask is unavoidable: what incentive does a young man have to farm or trade when picking up a gun attracts dialogue, attention, and concessions?

Supporters of the president often dismiss northern grievances as religious intolerance. That argument collapses under scrutiny. The same logic used to explain Obi’s landslide in the South-East and his strong showing in Lagos—identity mobilisation—explains voting behaviour in Northern Christian zones. Lagos itself exposes the hypocrisy. Tinubu lost Lagos, his political base, where he polled 572,606 votes against Obi’s 582,454. Ethnicity did not save him there. Identity politics did. If identity voting is a valid explanation in Lagos, it cannot be dismissed as hatred when the North responds politically to perceived exclusion.

Underlying these grievances is history. Nigeria’s constitution speaks of democratic choice, but Nigeria’s politics practises managed succession. Obasanjo’s role in installing Yar’Adua in 2007 is undisputed. The consolidation of APC power ahead of 2023 advantaged Tinubu decisively. Against this backdrop, fears in the North that incumbency could again be used to shape future political outcomes are not paranoia; they are historical inference.

This is why rumours of fragmentation or political marginalisation resonate so deeply in the North. The region is landlocked, security-fragile, and economically interconnected. Any national rupture—formal or informal—would hurt the North first and hardest. When trust erodes between a region and the centre, fear fills the vacuum. Silence from power does not reassure; it amplifies suspicion.

Beyond Islam and Christianity lies a more fundamental issue: survival as a political force. Divide the North internally, weaken its bargaining unity, and its influence diminishes without a single dramatic announcement. History shows that fragmented regions lose leverage quietly and permanently. Once cohesion is gone, recovery is generational.

This is not an emotional argument. It is a political diagnosis. Betrayal, in politics, describes unmet expectations after commitments are honoured. The Muslim North delivered votes in unprecedented numbers. It absorbed political risk. It defended an unconventional ticket. What it sees in return is limited influence, persistent insecurity, and a fracture in its internal cohesion.

The question, therefore, is no longer whether the accusation exists. It clearly does. The real question is whether it will be confronted honestly while there is still time to repair trust—or whether denial will harden grievance into something far more dangerous. Politics rewards foresight. It punishes complacency. The Muslim North is not asking for sympathy; it is demanding recognition of facts that are already on record.

Mohammed Bello Doka can be reached via bellodoka82@gmail.com

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When Ja’o’ji Answers Reconciliation With Humility in Victory

Published

3 days ago

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May 17, 2026

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By Abba Anwar

As superintended by His Excellency, Executive Governor of Kano State, Abba Kabir Yusuf, the reconciliation between aspirants of the position of House of Representatives, from Tarauni federal constituency, which produced the former Senior Special Assistant to the President on Citizenship and Leadership, Hon Nasir Bala Aminu (Ja’oji), as the flag bearer under the platform of All Progressives Congress (APC), the political atmosphere in Tarauni is now cooled, rancour-free, enduring and promising.

What is more fascinating is how Ja’oji accepted the entire process in good faith. With all sense of humility, commitment and promising engagement in pre, during and post election periods. Governor Yusuf surprised people with his skilful intervention as the leader of the party in the state. Many expected increasing political turbulence in Tarauni before any agreement could be reached, in House of Representatives race.

Yes Tarauni was one of the dicey political environments in the state, pregnant with political uncertainties. At the starting point, what signaled soft landing for the constituency, was the good understanding of his constituents about his capacity, capability and certainty towards the development of his people.

The long held speculation that, Ja’oji, right from onset, would be anointed from Abuja to come and contest, was put to rest and was flawed by the struggle of all aspirants before and during the just concluded and meticulous consensus arrangement. Which gave Ja’oji edge over all others.

Without fear of mincing words, Iet me put it succinctly clear that, among all the hitherto aspirants, Ja’oji was closer to the people, more visible when it comes to contributing for the development of his people and the constituency. Even before he was appointed Senior Special Assistant to the President, Ja’oji was and remains household name in Tarauni and many parts of Kano.

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So many people were of the opinion that, even if there would be primary election between him and other aspirants, he would emerge victorious. But to me, in this and similar context, consensus is better and healthier for internal party cohesion. Before and during the consensus period, Ja’oji remained calm, as he always behaves. Some pundits believe that, he is more composed with the needed exposure, for the position, at the National Assembly.

Celebrating his victory from the consensus arrangement, is just one out of many celebrations attached to his political life. All will celebrate him when his interventions in many areas of human development, are made public in an astonishing public presentation.

Apart from hundreds of students he aided with scholarships and keep up, his well-structured empowerment programmes of women and youth, as harsh economic realities are suffocating citizens, health assistance for clearing hospitals bills and grant to his people, are all tip of an iceberg in his political character and social behavior.

In my estimation of his interventions to his people, he spent close to Two Billion Naira (N2b) only, to put smiles on the faces of his people. That was from the time I started having interest in writing about his contributions for the development of his people. But before then, other expenses were counting.

To bring it to the fore, Ja’oji may not have a match, outside government, who serves his people tirelessly in Tarauni federal constituency. He serves his party, leaders and elders of the party, party members and non-party elements. That is why the respect he commands in Tarauni and elsewhere is incomparable to his peers.

Ja’oji’s statement after the consensus shows how humble he is in victory. He didn’t boast as being more powerful, more influencial, more connected, more capable and more exposed than other aspirants. He thanked His Excellency, the Governor for spearheading the process. Together with other important political leaders.

At the point of commending co-aspirants, he praised them for being courageous to face the process. What is more interesting and fascinating is when he mentioned their names individually. It says a lot about his open heart and open door policy.

I was moved when he called other aspirants with their individual names. Not only that, he ascribed Honourable to their respective names. Hear him, “I must commend all those who withdrew from the race. Let me begin with Hon Abubakar Zakari (Habu PA), Hon Ibrahim Babangida, Hon Ibrahim Auwal, Hon Eng Haruna Ahmad Sabo, Hon Mutari Isa Dikko, Hon Nasiru A Shuaibu, Hon Nasiru Shuaibu and Hon Abubakar Hashim.”

Anwar writes from Kano
Saturday, 16th May, 2026

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Kano North: Time to Reward DSP Barau

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1 week ago

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May 12, 2026

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By Abba Anwar

 

Not only a rare gem, the Deputy Senate President, His Excellency, Barau I Jibrin, PhD, CFR, is an asset for his constituency, Kano North, Kano State and Northern Nigeria, to begin with. I’m yet to see a Senator of the republics I am conversant with, in this country, who served his people close to what DSP has been doing.

 

Let me confine myself to the North West, or the entire Northern Nigeria. More specifically let me limit my analysis on those who became Senate Presidents and Deputies Senate President from the North. None, I mean none of them, performed so wonderfully well to his people like the incumbent DSP. I stand to be back on the pedal.

 

I therefore, don’t see any stumbling block on his way to return to the Senate. The way I see it, is, the victory in his reelection bid for 2027, is done, sealed and delivered. Not only voters from Kano North see the writing on the wall, but all other Senatorial zones, Kano Central and Kano South, know this reality.

 

I’m rest assured that, electorate from his primary constituency know all the interventions I am about to mention below. While they are just a fraction of the feats he achieved, his entire interventions are beyond article writing. We need either a compendium or a repository system, cataloging different sectors like education, security, health, sports, infrastructural development, among others.

 

Payback time for the Senator, from his constituency, is now or never. His excelling achievements were, long before now, being appreciated by different organizations, associations and agencies.

 

In the education sector he initiated and presented a Bill for the establishment of Federal Polytechnic, Kabo, that was established with 17 approved programmes in Science, Engineering and Health Sciences. He further lobbied and followed-up legislative process; which also provided infrastructure for the Polytechnic to be transformed to University of Science and Technology, Kabo.

 

He initiated, lobbied and followed-up for the Federal College of Education (Technical) Bichi, to Federal University of Education Bichi. The same effort was applied to the transformation of the Federal College of Education, (FCE) Kano, to Yusuf Maitama Sule Federal University of Education, Kano. He initiated and lobbied for the renaming of the University, after the name of the former Permanent Representative of Nigeria, to the United Nations, Dan Masanin Kano Yusuf Maitama Sule.

 

He was able to facilitate the establishment of 13 National Open University of Nigeria (NOUN) Study Centres, across all 13 Local Government Areas, of his constituency, Kano North. Also facilitated for the establishment of Federal University Dutsin-Ma 6 Satellite Campuses and four (4) more Study Centres facilitated in Gwarzo, Danbatta, Dawakin Tofa, Gabasawa local governments.

 

Under human development in education sector, DSP Jibrin sponsored 70 Kano students under his Barau Jibrin Scholarships Scheme, to study AI, Robotics, Forensic Sciences, among other modern fields of study. The 70 students, that I called Barau Scholars, some of them completed their studies. And have since returned to the country to contribute their quota for the development of the state and the overall national development.

 

At Federal University Dutsinma, he sponsored 600 Kano students to study in different fields. In addition the payment of Fifty Thousand Naira (₦50,000) to each Kano North undergraduate student studying in Bayero University, Kano.

 

He sponsored 300 undergraduate students across some notable Nigerian Universities to study their chosen field of study. They were selected from all the three Senatorial zones in the state. All their fees were paid instantly.

 

On yearly basis, he pays for NECO and JAMB examination fees, for less-privileged students from Kano North. His Foundation paid full undergraduate scholarship to 13 students of Azman University, Kano. While at the same time he paid for the registration fees for 650 students from Kano North, studying in FUDMA.

 

Beyond his constituency, he facilitated for the JAMB Act (Amendment) Bill 2019. With the aim of making admissions, across the country, more transparent. Coupled with his effort in the Federal Colleges of Education Act (Repeal and Re-enactment) Bill 2019, which he sponsored for reforms in Colleges of Education, across the country.

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Under security sector, more specifically his direct support to Nigeria Police Force, the Distinguished Senator donated One thousand (1,000) operational motorcycles. The handing over of the motorcycles took place at Bompai Police Headquarters, Kano. Of which the distribution was at 700 for Kano North Senatorial Zone and the remaining 300 for State Command Headquarters. The donation was purposely made to enhance mobility, rapid response, and reach hard-to-access areas by our Police officers.

 

He donated other operational vehicles to the Police Command, Bompai, among other donations of vehicles to other police formations, particularly, in Kano North. As he renovated parts of Kano State Police Headquarters. As he further constructed many police stations in different parts of the state.

 

Our able DSP constructed a modern Police Secondary School in Kabo, his hometown. He is not only concerned with operational vehicles and infrastructure, he is mindful of aiding his people to get recruited into the available spaces under our security system.

 

Hence he facilitated the recruitment of 120 security personnel as Police Cadets, Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) officials, and Federal Fire Service officers from Kano North. After the completion of their training, he hosted them at a dinner in their honor, at Bristol Palace Hotel, Kano. As he charged them on integrity, patriotism, service to the nation and loyalty to their respective formations.

 

To further enhance security in the streets across his constituency, he helped in the installation of one thousand (1,000) solar-powered streetlights across Kano North, to improve nighttime patrols. As he rushed to Kano Central donating for market security, where he donated Hilux, 5 motorcycles for patrol at Farm Centre phone market.

 

As our Distinguished Senator believes in re-positioning of our security system and architecture, he sees reason in security infrastructure development. This informs his patriotic decision in facilitating for the establishment of

NSCDC Training College, in Gwarzo, Nigeria Police Service Commission Training Institute, in Kabo and Nigeria Immigration Service Training School, in Bichi.

 

I still don’t see a Senator from Kano, or even from other parts of the North, who did half of what the DSP is doing to his people. My reader should please mark my words, I’m not ridiculing our patriotic legislators. I am only stating the obvious, with evidences, facts not fictions.

 

I don’t know how DSP Jibrin’s constituency can reward him. I think taking him back to the Senate in 2027 election, yes is rewarding, but is not enough a reciprocal engagement. They should, I suggest evolve other means and manner to appreciate this gentleman. The best mean and manner to me is, support, support and support for his policies, programmes and projects.

 

Under agriculture the biggest project is the long awaited programme on maize and rice cultivation to boost food security, under Barau Initiative for Agricultural Revolution in the Northwest (BIARN), that was launched in April 2025. With the intention of the distribution of about Three Billion Naira (N3b) interest-free loan scheme for 558 young farmers across the 7 states of the North West.

 

As beneficiaries would get access to, ranging from One Million Naira (N1m) to Two Million Naira (N2m) up to Five Million Naira (N5m) per individual beneficiary. What is delaying the implementation of the programme is the paucity of Funds from the partner organization, Bank of Agriculture (BOA).

 

Under nfrastructural development, road construction and rehabilitation

specifically, he lobbied for Kano-Gwarzo-Dayi federal road among others. Other infrastructure in Gwarzo, where roads, bridge, water projects and installation of solar lights, became the order of the day, under his interventions. So also hospital construction and upgrades, in the same Gwarzo local government.

 

Community projects like construction and rehabilitation of Mosques, Palaces and training institutes are all over.

 

Under Youth and Women Empowerment for economic development, he initiated the distribution of Twenty Thousand Naira (₦20,000) only. For 10,000 less-privileged across all the 44 LGAs in the state. With Kano North taking the largest share of 6,500 beneficiaries, at 500 per LGA.

 

Just recently DSP launched monthly One Hundred Thousand Naira (₦100,000) only, capital support, for 1,300 beneficiaries, from the Month of February 2026 to December 2026. A year round project. A total of 18,200 beneficiaries, will benefit from the sum of Two Hundred and Eighteen Million, Two Hundred Thousand (₦218.2m) only.

 

Under other, varying empowerment programmes, Senator Jibrin distributed 130 vehicles to transport associations, across 13 local governments under his constituency. A total number of 1,000 motorcycles were distributed to headmasters, teachers and other residents in the rural communities.

 

When students benefited from 1,300 tricycles, 1,300 sewing machines, 1,300 noodle-making machines and flour to women, 1,300 deep freezers and 1,300 bicycles

 

Sports & Community Development are not left behind. As 150 football teams per local government benefited with Jerseys and balls. Totaling 1,950 teams across Kano North.

 

In my candid opinion, His Excellency Distinguished Senator and First Deputy Speaker of ECOWAS Parliament, Barau I Jibrin, PhD, CFR, should be Dinga Yi, Dinga Yi and Dinga Yi.

 

Anwar writes from Kano

Tuesday, 12th May, 2026

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As Garo Takes Oath, Electorate In Kano’s 484 Wards Are Represented

Published

2 weeks ago

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May 5, 2026

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By Abba Anwar

As His Excellency, the Executive Governor of Kano State, Abba Kabir Yusuf superintendents the official swearing – in of His Excellency, Murtala Sule Garo, electorate in all the 484 political wards, across the 44 local governments of the state, will begin to feel well represented. Especially those within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). Alongside others from other parties. And even non-party individuals.

According to an analyst, from one of the political research groups based in Abuja, Garo is one of the few politicians in Kano, who have direct and real contacts in each and every ward in the state. So bringing him to the corridor of power, is not only strategic, but politically engaging.

Agreed he has his tentacles across all the 44 local governments and all the 484 wards, coupled with his well wishers across the state. Both state and non-state actors. Today’s swearing-in is not only one of the symbols of state political development, it is aptly conceived in the most designed inclusive political success stories.

While Garo was patiently waiting for the swearing – in, many more political reconciliations took place across political divides, intra and inter. With outstanding results all over camps, communities and individuals. He, outrightly, becomes a unifier for Kano First Agenda. The way I see it, is this, His Excellency, the Deputy Governor, is also one of the hottest cakes in the state now. A position, he enjoys for a long time before now.

His acceptance speech, says a lot in what he believes to be his cardinal principles, as a Deputy Governor. Without any doubt, Governor Yusuf, will find true loyalty, glued support and deliberate delivery in governance, government and the governed, in him.

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What is so fascinating at the swearing – in event, is the presence of His Excellency, Deputy Senate President, Distinguished Senator Barau I Jibrin, CFR, whose relationship with HE Garo has always been seen as a bit sour. An explanation, that, I, used to counter-argue on different occasions.

DSP’s presence, marks the beginning of new APC in Kano. I now see unity upon unity in Kano APC. This development alone, is promising, productive, engaging and fruitful. It says a bunch about fence mending effort, initiated and executed by some covertly notable individuals. Some of whom are not even from Kano.

The presence of the former Governor of the state, the Sardauna of Kano, Malam Ibrahim Shekarau, an embodiment of humility, during the event, is another symbol of excellence, signifying victory for the party in Kano. Shekarau, another icon whose visibility cuts across all the 44 local governments. The architect of Shoorah political dynasty. A sensitive leader, whose love among his people is largely genuine and unqualifiable.

The Senator representing Kano South, Senator Abdurrahman Kawu Sumaila’s attendance, at the event, sends signal to opposition parties, that Kano APC is one indivisible political entity. That cements its power, relevance and domineering effect across the length and breadth of the the state. Victory assured!

Without crossing any boundary, let me say this, part of the strong qualities of HE Garo is loyalty, straightforwardness, KALAMU WAHID, and taking his people closer to his heart. He cares for each and every member of his supporters community, not only in Kano, but even outside the state. His becoming so endearing to his people, supporters and well wishers, has never been accidental.

With DSP, Shekarau and Sumaila at the centre, HE Yusuf and HE Garo at the state level, along other critical stakeholders, Kano APC is waxing stronger, well positioned and expressly attractive. In unity the party can make wonders, make and not mar.

Let me assure the people’s governor, that, keeping HE closer, than usual, will aid the government in maintaining popular grassroot support, from now to election period and beyond. More so, closer understanding and cohesion between our leaders, especially between DSP Jibrin and HE Garo will help the governor in trickling down democratic dividends. In an appreciative manner.

The more our dear governor assigns responsibilities to HE Garo, the more chances for smooth administration. His Excellency, the Deputy Governor alone can shoulder all matters to do with, serving party loyalists, effective political strategy in the land and tension absorption.

Anwar writes from Kano
Tuesday, 5th May, 2026

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