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SPECIAL REPORT:“Nigeria’s Democracy and the Endless Cycle of One-Party Dominance”

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A historical analysis reveals how Nigeria’s democracy repeatedly succumbs to one-party dominance, with the current regime being worst as it perfects the playbook of past eras.

By Yusuf Danjuma Yunusa

Dominant-party politics—where one party consistently controls political power while opposition exists but faces significant systemic disadvantages—has manifested at various points in Nigeria’s political history. While the current situation under President Bola Tinubu’s APC-led administration is evidently worst as it shows concerning trends toward a total dominance, historical precedents exist, particularly during the First Republic and the prolonged military eras that indirectly shaped party systems.

In The First Republic(1963-1966)

Nigeria’s first experiment with multiparty democracy effectively functioned as a “three-dominant-party system” at the regional level:

If checked critically in the Northern region as at that time, the Northern People’s Congress (NPC) held virtually unassailable dominance, leveraging the feudal structure, ethnic solidarity (Hausa-Fulani), and control of Native Authority police and taxation. Opposition parties like the Northern Elements Progressive Union (NEPU) were systematically marginalized.

While in the Western region, the Action Group (AG) under Chief Obafemi Awolowo dominated until the 1962–63 crisis, which split the party and led to a federal government-backed takeover by the Nigerian National Democratic Party (NNDP).

In the Eastern region the National Council of Nigerian Citizens (NCNC) held sway, though with more competitive politics than the North.

It’s worth noting that this was regionalized dominance rather than a single nationwide dominant party. The federal government was a fragile NPC-NCNC coalition.

In The Second Republic(1979-1983)

The National Party of Nigeria (NPN) emerged as a nationwide dominant party in the second republic.

It won the presidency with Shehu Shagari as its candidate without a clear popular majority. But through patronage, co-optation of opponents (“boarding the bus”), and control of federal resources, the NPN gained “surprise” gubernatorial victories and parliamentary seats, particularly in the 1983 elections—which was widely viewed as heavily rigged.

It used federal might to unseat opposition governors, a good example of it which is the Ondo State saga, through controversial judicial processes.

National Party of Nigeria(NPN) had a parallel mode of operations to today’s administration of President Tinubu. The party was also a broad, pragmatic coalition of elites from multiple regions–like the APC–using control of the petroleum boom economy to reward loyalty and fellowship.

In the military era, there usually would be nothing as party politics. Military rule suppressed party politics entirely but orchestrated networks and a centralized federal might that later shaped civilian dominant-party tendencies.

This was evident in the 1989–1993 two-party experiment (SDP and NRC) imposed by Gen. Babangida. It was an artificial, state-created duopoly—not genuine multiparty competition.

The Fourth Republic(1999-Present Day)

The Peoples Democratic Party(PDP) was the first national dominant party in the history of Nigeria.

The party held the Presidency, National Assembly majority, and most governorships for 16 consecutive years.

It employed massive patronage, control of INEC and security forces, and corruption of electoral processes especially under the 2007 election, described as “do-or-die” by President Obasanjo.

Opposition victories were rare to see with only Lagos, ANPP strongholds as the opposition voice. Although victories were possible, just that there were rare, it showed that the system was competitive, authoritarian rather than full one-party rule.

Dominance ended in 2015 due to internal fragmentation (the 2013–14 defection of the “nPDP” bloc to APC) and widespread public discontent over insecurity and corruption, not via a level playing field.

In 2015, APC’s era came and won the presidency (Buhari) and, by 2023, controlled 22 of 36 states.

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By 2024 till this very moment in 2025, the ruling APC has been massively receiving politicians from the main opposition PDP and others into its fold. The most recent of it was the defection of governor Fubara of Rivers State.

The tsunami has left the PDP with just 5 governors now: governor Fintiri of Adamawa State, Dauda Lawal of Zamfara State, Caleb Muftwang of Plateau State, governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State, and Bala Mohammed of Bauchi State.

Governor Agbu Kefas of Taraba State and governor Adeleke of Osun State would have been the sixth and seventh governors for the party respectively, but reports have it that the former has also defected to the APC. Although, official declaration for that is yet to happen as it has been scheduled to hold next year January, 2026.

While governor Adeleke has officially joined the Accord Party and has picked the gubernatorial form for his second tenure.

Reports also have it that governor Caleb Muftwang of Plateau State is one step away from joining the ruling All Progressives Congress, citing heightened differences between him and some of the state executives of APC as the impediment to his official alignment.

The party, APC, now commands a supermajority capable of constitutional amendments without opposition support with 73 Senators and 175 Representatives.

It has also 28 governors in total, leaving the opposition parties with 8.

5–for PDP
1–for LP
1–for NNPP
1–for Accord Party

The Mechanisms of Dominance

Speaking with a public affairs analyst and political scientist, Austin Patrick, he shared that history has shown that financial advantage has been the tool in which ruling party use to dominate since democratic era.

“The control of oil revenues, state contracts, the capture of NNPC, CBN, and other agencies; alleged use of anti-graft agencies to pressure opponents are different mechanisms in which the ruling party use to dominate.”

He continued, “we all know that the Okowa case with the EFCC will no longer come to the public after his defection to the APC.”

Mr. Austin also emphasized on the judicial favouritism which the country has been witnessing in recent times, citing the position of court as the final arbiter in recent times.

“Courts now play an unprecedented role in determining election winners—over 80% of petitions in the 2023 cycle were dismissed on technicalities rather than merits,” he said.

On the other hand, Dr. Kabir Sufi, who is also a political analyst, opined that the APC’s dominance is largely attributed to structural advantages and the factions in the opposition parties.

“Well, the combination of the APC’s usage of structural advantages and fragmentation of the opposition contribute to how bigger and wider the ruling party has become.”

He also highlighted on the rumor by many Nigerians that the said fragmentation and weakness of the opposition is largely the orchestration of the APC itself.

The Dangers Of One-Party System

Dr. Sufi asserted that the dangers of one party system is largely on democracy itself rather than intergovernmental relations and federalism spirit.

“The implications are mostly for democracy itself, it’s not allowing the opposition to thrive.”

“The advantages in which oppositions are to enjoy are not actually realistic,” he added.

Although Dr. Sufi acknowledged that there are a lot of factors that have allowed the situation to become what it is today.

Meanwhile, Mr. Austin was of the opinion that the danger of one party system is ultimately accountability erosion.

“Weak opposition breeds legislative and fiscal oversight.”

He noted that with no external threat, APC may become more autocratic, stifling pragmatic democracy.

Mr. Austin also stated that one party dominance contributes to voter apathy among citizens.

“The belief that elections don’t change outcomes may depress turnout and fuel political violence.”

Moreover, Dr. Sufi, when asked if the opposition have any chance to unsit the APC in the coming 2027 presidential election, said that:

“With the wave of defections to the APC, the task may be getting harder for the opposition unless if there’s an implosion within APC.”

Summarily, while it’s evident that Nigeria is on the verge of becoming a one-party nation, it’s worth noting that it’s not yet completely a one-party state. Multiple parties still exist and compete, but it exhibits clear dominant-party authoritarian characteristics similar to the PDP’s peak (2003–2011).

The difference is that the current opposition is more fragmented and demoralized than in the past.

A thorough examination will reveal to one that dominant-party politics in Nigeria follows a cyclical pattern: a party gains power, uses state resources to entrench itself, becomes corrupt and fragmented, then collapses from internal splits rather than electoral defeat. The APC appears to be in the entrenchment phase, Nigerian Tracker News observed.

Yusuf Danjuma Yunusa is a freelance journalist and a reporter with the Nigerian Tracker News. He can be reached via: theonlygrandeur@gmail.com or 07069180810

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El-Rufai Writes NSA, Demands Explanation on Alleged Procurement of Deadly Poison to Nigeria

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By Yusuf Danjuma Yunusa

Former Kaduna State Governor, Nasir Ahmad El-Rufai, has formally requested clarification from the Office of the National Security Adviser (ONSA) regarding the alleged procurement of a highly toxic chemical substance, Thallium Sulphate.

In a letter dated January 30, 2026, and addressed to National Security Adviser (NSA) Nuhu Ribadu, El-Rufai stated he was acting “as a concerned citizen” to seek details about what he described as the procurement of approximately 10 kilograms of the substance, reportedly sourced from a supplier in Poland. The letter was received by ONSA on February 11, 2026.

According to Science Direct, Thallium sulfate is an extremely hazardous substance. It is a tasteless, odourless, and colourless crystalline powder historically used as a potent rodenticide and insecticide. Due to its extreme toxicity—with a fatal human dose estimated to be as low as 8 to 12 milligrammes per kilogramme—its use is tightly restricted or banned in many countries. The chemical mimics potassium in the body, leading to severe nervous system damage, hair loss, and potentially death.

The letter, titled “Request for Clarification on the Procurement of Thallium Sulphate,” raises several critical questions regarding the purpose, regulatory compliance, and safety measures surrounding the reported acquisition.

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El-Rufai wrote that he was seeking clarification as a concerned citizen based on information available to the political opposition leadership about a procurement of approximately 10 kilogrammes of Thallium Sulphate by ONSA, reportedly from a supplier in Poland. Highlighting the grave danger posed by the substance, he stressed the need for transparency, noting that because thallium salts are highly toxic and tightly controlled substances, it was important for public safety, democratic accountability, and maintaining public trust to confirm specific details.

He therefore sought clarification on the intended purpose and end-use of the imported Thallium Sulphate, the supplier’s identity, and whether the material was imported under an existing chemical or defence permit. He also requested information on the total quantity and specific form or concentration being procured or already procured, as well as the storage and security arrangements for the material upon arrival.

Furthermore, he asked about the regulatory oversight and coordination with NAFDAC, NCDC, and relevant public-health and environmental agencies, and whether any public-health risk assessments or hazard-mitigation plans had been developed given the compound’s extreme toxicity.

El-Rufai emphasised that his inquiry was made in good faith, with the sole aim of ensuring due process and transparency, rather than inflaming political tensions. He stated that public confidence in the integrity of national institutions is strengthened when potential risks are openly addressed and managed.

The former governor requested continued dialogue with the NSA’s office on the matter and expressed appreciation for a response or a point of contact within the office for further engagement to reassure concerned Nigerian citizens in the opposition.

In a move underscoring the demand for transparency, El-Rufai copied the correspondence to the Directors-General of the National Agency for Food and Drug Administration and Control (NAFDAC) and the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), as well as the National Chairmen of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

The inquiry comes amid recent political tension, following claims by the former governor that NSA Ribadu ordered his arrest, an incident that led to a recent altercation at the Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport in Abuja. It also follows El-Rufai’s assertion that an individual had intercepted a phone conversation confirming the NSA’s involvement in the alleged arrest attempt.

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Dangote Salt Rewards 50 Outstanding Customers with Trucks, Cash Gifts

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NASCON Allied Industries Plc, also known as Dangote Salt, has rewarded 50 outstanding customers with Trucks and cash gifts worth billions of naira, for their loyalty and commitment in selling of its various products.

The lucky Distributors and customers were honoured at the seasoning giant’s 2025 Customers Dinner and Awards Night attended by Africa’s foremost industrialist and President of Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, and Vice President, Olakunle Alake.

NASCON Allied Industries Plc, a subsidiary of Dangote Industries Limited, is a Nigerian company and manufacturer of Refined Salt and Dangote Classic Seasonings.

Speaking at the event, Thursday in Abuja, The group President, Mr. Aliko Dangote said the Customer Awards Night publicly acknowledges the company’s core value of Customer Service and aligns with its vision of being a world-class consumer goods company.
The President also commended the company’s Board chairman, management and staff for their unwavering dedication, professionalism, and consistent contributions to the organization’s growth and sustained market leadership.

He noted that their commitment to excellence, operational efficiency, and strong work ethic has continued to strengthen the company’s reputation and drive its long-term success.

He said: “Recognizing customers is not just good relationship management – it is good business. It sends a clear message to our people that customer service is truly one of our core values. Looking ahead, we will continue to invest in brand equity, supply chain efficiency, sustainability, and digital capabilities. But these investments only create value when they are aligned with customer realities. Your continued engagement and feedback remain critical.”
In his speech, Board Chairman of NASCON Allied Industries Plc and Dangote Group’s Vice President, Olakunle Alake said: “As a quoted company, we are accountable to shareholders, regulators and the investing public. But the confidence of thmarketmarket is ultimately rooted in the market performance, and market performance depends on customers who believe in our brands. “

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The Board Chairman said from the Board’s perspective, “customer service is not just a core value, it is a strategic asset.”

Mr. Alake described the Awards as a celebration of partnership, adding that success cannot be built in isolation.

The newly appointed Group Executive Director of the Dangote Refinery and Petrochemicals, Fatima Aliko Dangote, expressed her appreciation to customers for their enduring loyalty and continued trust in the brand.

She said this steadfast support has been a cornerstone of the company’s growth and success.

She said: “Each of you has demonstrated outstanding commitment to our brands, whether through sustained volume growth, market expansion, execution excellence, or long-standing loyalty. Your success is inseparable from our own.”

Speaking at the event, Mariya Aliko Dangote, recently appointed Group Executive Director, Commercial (Cement and Foods) at Dangote Industries Limited, noted that each of the award recipients has demonstrated exceptional loyalty and outstanding commitment to the company’s brands.

“I recently assumed the responsibility of our foods business in the capacity of Group Executive Director, Commercial operations, and one truth is already clear to me: our success is built with you and with your unwavering support,” she said.

She said true success is built from the market and feedback from customers.

The Managing Director of NASCON Allied Industries Plc, Aderemi Saka, stated that the central message of the awards night was to celebrate and appreciate the company’s customers, noting that the organization’s success is closely tied to the growth and prosperity of its customers.

Speaking on behalf of the awardees, Ali Balarabe, commended the Board, management, and staff of the company for their exceptional service and dedication.

Mr. Balarabe, who was rewarded with a 20-tonnage truck and cash credit expressed appreciation for the recognition, noting that it reflects the company’s commitment to excellence.

Balarabe further pledged to sustain his loyalty and continued support, promising to remain a steadfast and devoted customer in the years ahead.

Other customers who received truckload awards and cash credits include Alhaji Ibrahim Achida, Muabsa Integrated Services, Fanisau Enterprises, Idris Saleh Nigeria Limited, Sani Adamu Trader, and GIA Global Concept, among others.

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JUST IN: Senate, Reps to Resume Plenary on Tuesday for Crucial Deliberations

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By Yusuf Danjuma Yunusa

The National Assembly has announced that both the Senate and the House of Representatives will reconvene plenary sessions on Tuesday, February 17, 2026.

The announcement was made on Sunday by the Clerk to the National Assembly, Mr. Kamoru Ogunlana, in a statement urging lawmakers to adjust their schedules to ensure full attendance, as critical decisions are expected during the sessions.

“I am directed to inform all Distinguished Senators and Honourable Members of the National Assembly that the Senate and House of Representatives shall reconvene Plenary session at 11:00am on Tuesday, 17th February 2026 respectively,” the statement read.

“Consequently, all Distinguished Senators and Honourable Members are kindly requested to take note and reschedule their engagements accordingly to enable them attend the session, as very crucial decisions shall be taken by each Chamber during the session.”

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The National Assembly did not disclose the specific matters to be deliberated upon.

Lawmakers had earlier suspended plenary to allow more time for the defence of the 2026 budget proposals by Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs).

However, indications emerged over the weekend that the House of Representatives may convene for an emergency sitting to consider matters arising from the Electoral Act Amendment Bill. This follows the recent release of the 2027 general election timetable by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

The decision to reconvene was reportedly conveyed to lawmakers in an internal memorandum issued by the Office of the Speaker, according to a statement released on Friday night by the House spokesman, Mr. Akin Rotimi.

The INEC timetable has sparked debate over certain dates that are expected to clash with the Ramadan period, which is projected to fall between February 7 and 8, 2027. Several Nigerians, including senators, have raised concerns about the potential conflict, arguing that the fasting period could hinder electoral activities.

Tuesday’s session is therefore expected to consider possible adjustments to the electoral timetable to ensure that the Ramadan period does not interfere with scheduled election activities.

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