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SPECIAL REPORT:“Nigeria’s Democracy and the Endless Cycle of One-Party Dominance”

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A historical analysis reveals how Nigeria’s democracy repeatedly succumbs to one-party dominance, with the current regime being worst as it perfects the playbook of past eras.

By Yusuf Danjuma Yunusa

Dominant-party politics—where one party consistently controls political power while opposition exists but faces significant systemic disadvantages—has manifested at various points in Nigeria’s political history. While the current situation under President Bola Tinubu’s APC-led administration is evidently worst as it shows concerning trends toward a total dominance, historical precedents exist, particularly during the First Republic and the prolonged military eras that indirectly shaped party systems.

In The First Republic(1963-1966)

Nigeria’s first experiment with multiparty democracy effectively functioned as a “three-dominant-party system” at the regional level:

If checked critically in the Northern region as at that time, the Northern People’s Congress (NPC) held virtually unassailable dominance, leveraging the feudal structure, ethnic solidarity (Hausa-Fulani), and control of Native Authority police and taxation. Opposition parties like the Northern Elements Progressive Union (NEPU) were systematically marginalized.

While in the Western region, the Action Group (AG) under Chief Obafemi Awolowo dominated until the 1962–63 crisis, which split the party and led to a federal government-backed takeover by the Nigerian National Democratic Party (NNDP).

In the Eastern region the National Council of Nigerian Citizens (NCNC) held sway, though with more competitive politics than the North.

It’s worth noting that this was regionalized dominance rather than a single nationwide dominant party. The federal government was a fragile NPC-NCNC coalition.

In The Second Republic(1979-1983)

The National Party of Nigeria (NPN) emerged as a nationwide dominant party in the second republic.

It won the presidency with Shehu Shagari as its candidate without a clear popular majority. But through patronage, co-optation of opponents (“boarding the bus”), and control of federal resources, the NPN gained “surprise” gubernatorial victories and parliamentary seats, particularly in the 1983 elections—which was widely viewed as heavily rigged.

It used federal might to unseat opposition governors, a good example of it which is the Ondo State saga, through controversial judicial processes.

National Party of Nigeria(NPN) had a parallel mode of operations to today’s administration of President Tinubu. The party was also a broad, pragmatic coalition of elites from multiple regions–like the APC–using control of the petroleum boom economy to reward loyalty and fellowship.

In the military era, there usually would be nothing as party politics. Military rule suppressed party politics entirely but orchestrated networks and a centralized federal might that later shaped civilian dominant-party tendencies.

This was evident in the 1989–1993 two-party experiment (SDP and NRC) imposed by Gen. Babangida. It was an artificial, state-created duopoly—not genuine multiparty competition.

The Fourth Republic(1999-Present Day)

The Peoples Democratic Party(PDP) was the first national dominant party in the history of Nigeria.

The party held the Presidency, National Assembly majority, and most governorships for 16 consecutive years.

It employed massive patronage, control of INEC and security forces, and corruption of electoral processes especially under the 2007 election, described as “do-or-die” by President Obasanjo.

Opposition victories were rare to see with only Lagos, ANPP strongholds as the opposition voice. Although victories were possible, just that there were rare, it showed that the system was competitive, authoritarian rather than full one-party rule.

Dominance ended in 2015 due to internal fragmentation (the 2013–14 defection of the “nPDP” bloc to APC) and widespread public discontent over insecurity and corruption, not via a level playing field.

In 2015, APC’s era came and won the presidency (Buhari) and, by 2023, controlled 22 of 36 states.

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By 2024 till this very moment in 2025, the ruling APC has been massively receiving politicians from the main opposition PDP and others into its fold. The most recent of it was the defection of governor Fubara of Rivers State.

The tsunami has left the PDP with just 5 governors now: governor Fintiri of Adamawa State, Dauda Lawal of Zamfara State, Caleb Muftwang of Plateau State, governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State, and Bala Mohammed of Bauchi State.

Governor Agbu Kefas of Taraba State and governor Adeleke of Osun State would have been the sixth and seventh governors for the party respectively, but reports have it that the former has also defected to the APC. Although, official declaration for that is yet to happen as it has been scheduled to hold next year January, 2026.

While governor Adeleke has officially joined the Accord Party and has picked the gubernatorial form for his second tenure.

Reports also have it that governor Caleb Muftwang of Plateau State is one step away from joining the ruling All Progressives Congress, citing heightened differences between him and some of the state executives of APC as the impediment to his official alignment.

The party, APC, now commands a supermajority capable of constitutional amendments without opposition support with 73 Senators and 175 Representatives.

It has also 28 governors in total, leaving the opposition parties with 8.

5–for PDP
1–for LP
1–for NNPP
1–for Accord Party

The Mechanisms of Dominance

Speaking with a public affairs analyst and political scientist, Austin Patrick, he shared that history has shown that financial advantage has been the tool in which ruling party use to dominate since democratic era.

“The control of oil revenues, state contracts, the capture of NNPC, CBN, and other agencies; alleged use of anti-graft agencies to pressure opponents are different mechanisms in which the ruling party use to dominate.”

He continued, “we all know that the Okowa case with the EFCC will no longer come to the public after his defection to the APC.”

Mr. Austin also emphasized on the judicial favouritism which the country has been witnessing in recent times, citing the position of court as the final arbiter in recent times.

“Courts now play an unprecedented role in determining election winners—over 80% of petitions in the 2023 cycle were dismissed on technicalities rather than merits,” he said.

On the other hand, Dr. Kabir Sufi, who is also a political analyst, opined that the APC’s dominance is largely attributed to structural advantages and the factions in the opposition parties.

“Well, the combination of the APC’s usage of structural advantages and fragmentation of the opposition contribute to how bigger and wider the ruling party has become.”

He also highlighted on the rumor by many Nigerians that the said fragmentation and weakness of the opposition is largely the orchestration of the APC itself.

The Dangers Of One-Party System

Dr. Sufi asserted that the dangers of one party system is largely on democracy itself rather than intergovernmental relations and federalism spirit.

“The implications are mostly for democracy itself, it’s not allowing the opposition to thrive.”

“The advantages in which oppositions are to enjoy are not actually realistic,” he added.

Although Dr. Sufi acknowledged that there are a lot of factors that have allowed the situation to become what it is today.

Meanwhile, Mr. Austin was of the opinion that the danger of one party system is ultimately accountability erosion.

“Weak opposition breeds legislative and fiscal oversight.”

He noted that with no external threat, APC may become more autocratic, stifling pragmatic democracy.

Mr. Austin also stated that one party dominance contributes to voter apathy among citizens.

“The belief that elections don’t change outcomes may depress turnout and fuel political violence.”

Moreover, Dr. Sufi, when asked if the opposition have any chance to unsit the APC in the coming 2027 presidential election, said that:

“With the wave of defections to the APC, the task may be getting harder for the opposition unless if there’s an implosion within APC.”

Summarily, while it’s evident that Nigeria is on the verge of becoming a one-party nation, it’s worth noting that it’s not yet completely a one-party state. Multiple parties still exist and compete, but it exhibits clear dominant-party authoritarian characteristics similar to the PDP’s peak (2003–2011).

The difference is that the current opposition is more fragmented and demoralized than in the past.

A thorough examination will reveal to one that dominant-party politics in Nigeria follows a cyclical pattern: a party gains power, uses state resources to entrench itself, becomes corrupt and fragmented, then collapses from internal splits rather than electoral defeat. The APC appears to be in the entrenchment phase, Nigerian Tracker News observed.

Yusuf Danjuma Yunusa is a freelance journalist and a reporter with the Nigerian Tracker News. He can be reached via: theonlygrandeur@gmail.com or 07069180810

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APC Youth Coalition Petitions Akpabio, Defence Minister, Amnesty International Over Alleged Lawlessness by Dan Agundi

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The Coalition of APC Progressive Youth Group has petitioned President of the Senate, Senator Godswill Akpabio, the Minister of State for Defence and international human rights organisation, Amnesty International, over alleged acts of lawlessness and the organisation of an illegal protest by Hon. Baffa Babba Dan Agundi.

The coalition, through its representative, Comrade Usman Salisu, disclosed this while addressing newsmen, saying the petitions were aimed at drawing the attention of relevant authorities to what it described as Dan Agundi’s alleged disregard for constituted authority and the rule of law.

Salisu explained that the petition to Amnesty International followed earlier submissions to the Senate President and the Minister of State for Defence, urging them to intervene over what the group characterised as a growing tendency by the APC chieftain to act above the law.

According to the coalition, the petitions, dated October 30 and November 2, 2026, were formally acknowledged by the respective offices on November 5, 2026.

The group particularly accused Dan Agundi of organising an illegal protest allegedly aimed at reigniting the Kano Emirate crisis through an open declaration of support for Alhaji Aminu Ado Bayero, despite the matter remaining before a court of competent jurisdiction.

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It maintained that the alleged action amounted to a disregard for the judicial process and constituted authority, warning that public demonstrations capable of escalating an already sensitive traditional institution dispute could undermine peace and stability in Kano State.

The coalition further alleged that Dan Agundi’s conduct had contributed to the vandalisation of banners bearing the images of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Kano State Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf.

“This attitude of acting above the law and taking laws into his own hands led to the vandalisation of banners of the President and the Governor,” the group alleged.

It also accused the APC chieftain of allegedly exploiting the Kano Emirate dispute to encourage youth thuggery and political violence, warning that mobilising young people along political and factional lines could pose a serious threat to public safety and peaceful coexistence.

The coalition expressed concern that the alleged activities, if left unchecked, could create an atmosphere of political hostility and insecurity, particularly at a time when Kano State requires sustained efforts to maintain peace among its diverse political and traditional interests.

It said it could no longer remain silent in the face of what it described as persistent disrespect for the rule of law, insisting that political affiliation should not confer immunity on anyone against investigation or lawful accountability.

The group therefore called on the Senate President, the Minister of State for Defence and Amnesty International to take note of the allegations and ensure that appropriate steps were taken by relevant authorities.

It specifically demanded an impartial and evidence-based investigation into the allegations against Dan Agundi, urging security agencies and other relevant institutions to take appropriate action if the accusations were substantiated.

The coalition added that decisive action against anyone found culpable would serve as a deterrent to others who might seek to take the law into their own hands, stressing that respect for the rule of law remains essential to sustaining peace, security and stability in society.

 

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2027: ALKALANCI Mobilises Women Religious Leaders Against Fake News, Disinformation

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The ALKALANCI Faith-Based Resilience Project has organised a two-day capacity-building workshop for women religious leaders in Kano to equip them with the skills to identify, verify and prevent the spread of misinformation, disinformation and fake news ahead of the 2027 general elections.

The workshop, funded by the United Kingdom Government through the FCDO/ISF West Africa, was designed to strengthen community resilience against false information and promote responsible information sharing, particularly within religious and community settings.

The organisers said women religious leaders were targeted because of their significant influence in society, especially their roles in guiding families, shaping public opinion, communicating religious values and influencing decisions within their communities.

Speaking during an interview with journalists, Victoria, Programme Manager of ALKALANCI, said the initiative was aimed at strengthening the capacity of religious leaders to navigate the rapidly evolving information environment.

She explained that the widespread availability of mobile phones and internet access had transformed the information landscape, making it possible for virtually anyone to generate and circulate information, unlike in the past when traditional media organisations largely controlled information dissemination through established editorial and gatekeeping procedures.

According to her, the challenge is that many people do not possess the necessary knowledge and skills to distinguish credible information from false narratives, a development she said had contributed to misinformation with serious consequences, including health complications, loss of lives and communal conflicts.

Victoria said ALKALANCI, which operates in the fact-checking and information integrity sector, recognised that fact-checking organisations alone could not debunk false information at the same speed it spreads, making community participation critical to addressing the problem.

She explained that religious leaders were considered strategic partners because of the trust they enjoy within their communities and their ability to transmit knowledge acquired during the training to a wider audience.

She added that the workshop adopted a train-the-trainer approach, under which participants would not only benefit from the sessions but also educate other members of their communities on how to identify, question and reject misleading information.

Victoria further explained that the timing of the programme was deliberate, considering the significant role misinformation and disinformation have played in electoral processes in Nigeria and other countries.

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She, however, clarified that the objective was not necessarily to prevent people from creating false information but to build what she described as information “inoculation”, where members of the public would develop the ability to recognise misleading content, reject it and avoid acting on it, irrespective of the source.

On his part, Alhassan Bala, Editor of the ALKALANCI fact-checking platform, urged Nigerians to cultivate the habit of critically examining information, establishing its accuracy and verifying its source before sharing it across social media platforms and other communication channels.

Bala said the women religious leaders would be equipped with critical-thinking skills to assess information received or intended for circulation before taking decisions or transmitting it to members of their communities.

He also cautioned journalists against allowing the pressure to break news ahead of competitors to undermine professional ethics and standards, insisting that every piece of information must be subjected to proper scrutiny and verification before publication.

According to him, the publication of unverified breaking news could undermine the credibility and integrity of media organisations that audiences have trusted over the years.

“As somebody is trying to break the news, he may end up breaking the organisation’s integrity,” Bala cautioned.

He maintained that journalists must resist the temptation to publish unverified reports, regardless of the pressure to be the first to inform the public.

The ALKALANCI editor also called on media organisations, including newspapers, online news platforms and television stations, to establish dedicated fact-checking desks to scrutinise information before publication or broadcast.

He recommended that media organisations that lack the resources to establish such units should strengthen partnerships and collaboration with independent fact-checking organisations to ensure that information disseminated to the public is accurate and credible.

In his remarks, the Chairman of the Nigerian Council of Ulama, Kano State Chapter, Sheikh Ibrahim Khalil, represented by Sheikh Abubakar Ibrahim Tofa, underscored the importance of information verification, citing Islamic teachings that discourage the spread of unsubstantiated reports.

Tofa specifically referred to Surah Al-Hujurat, verse 6 of the Holy Qur’an, which directs believers to verify information brought to them before acting on it to avoid causing harm to others out of ignorance.

He assured the ALKALANCI Faith-Based Resilience Project of the Kano State Council of Ulama’s readiness to support initiatives aimed at addressing misinformation, disinformation and the spread of fake news.

Similarly, the Emir of Kano, Khalifa Muhammad Sanusi II, represented by Adam Auwal Mudi Yakasai, representing the District Head of Rimin Gado, welcomed the initiative, describing the training as timely in view of the growing challenges associated with the circulation of false information.

He also assured the ALKALANCI fact-checking project of the Kano State Emirate Council’s support for efforts to promote information integrity and discourage the spread of misinformation and disinformation.

The two-day workshop brought together women religious leaders and other stakeholders for sessions on information verification, critical thinking, responsible communication and the dangers of circulating unsubstantiated claims.

The organisers expressed the expectation that participants would use the knowledge acquired to promote information integrity, particularly at the grassroots, and strengthen public awareness against the manipulation of information ahead of the 2027 general elections.

 

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Just In: Court Nullifies Atiku’s Candidacy ,David Mark’s ADC Leadership

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A federal high court in Abuja has nullified the leadership of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) led by David Mark.

In a judgment delivered on Thursday, Peter Lifu, presiding judge, declared the Mark-led caretaker committee illegal, ruling in favour of Nafiu Bala Gombe, a former national deputy chairman (north-east) of the party.

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Lifu also invalidated all decisions taken by the party’s caretaker committee, including the nomination of Atiku Abubakar as the ADC presidential candidate for the 2027 election.

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