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SPECIAL REPORT:“Nigeria’s Democracy and the Endless Cycle of One-Party Dominance”

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A historical analysis reveals how Nigeria’s democracy repeatedly succumbs to one-party dominance, with the current regime being worst as it perfects the playbook of past eras.

By Yusuf Danjuma Yunusa

Dominant-party politics—where one party consistently controls political power while opposition exists but faces significant systemic disadvantages—has manifested at various points in Nigeria’s political history. While the current situation under President Bola Tinubu’s APC-led administration is evidently worst as it shows concerning trends toward a total dominance, historical precedents exist, particularly during the First Republic and the prolonged military eras that indirectly shaped party systems.

In The First Republic(1963-1966)

Nigeria’s first experiment with multiparty democracy effectively functioned as a “three-dominant-party system” at the regional level:

If checked critically in the Northern region as at that time, the Northern People’s Congress (NPC) held virtually unassailable dominance, leveraging the feudal structure, ethnic solidarity (Hausa-Fulani), and control of Native Authority police and taxation. Opposition parties like the Northern Elements Progressive Union (NEPU) were systematically marginalized.

While in the Western region, the Action Group (AG) under Chief Obafemi Awolowo dominated until the 1962–63 crisis, which split the party and led to a federal government-backed takeover by the Nigerian National Democratic Party (NNDP).

In the Eastern region the National Council of Nigerian Citizens (NCNC) held sway, though with more competitive politics than the North.

It’s worth noting that this was regionalized dominance rather than a single nationwide dominant party. The federal government was a fragile NPC-NCNC coalition.

In The Second Republic(1979-1983)

The National Party of Nigeria (NPN) emerged as a nationwide dominant party in the second republic.

It won the presidency with Shehu Shagari as its candidate without a clear popular majority. But through patronage, co-optation of opponents (“boarding the bus”), and control of federal resources, the NPN gained “surprise” gubernatorial victories and parliamentary seats, particularly in the 1983 elections—which was widely viewed as heavily rigged.

It used federal might to unseat opposition governors, a good example of it which is the Ondo State saga, through controversial judicial processes.

National Party of Nigeria(NPN) had a parallel mode of operations to today’s administration of President Tinubu. The party was also a broad, pragmatic coalition of elites from multiple regions–like the APC–using control of the petroleum boom economy to reward loyalty and fellowship.

In the military era, there usually would be nothing as party politics. Military rule suppressed party politics entirely but orchestrated networks and a centralized federal might that later shaped civilian dominant-party tendencies.

This was evident in the 1989–1993 two-party experiment (SDP and NRC) imposed by Gen. Babangida. It was an artificial, state-created duopoly—not genuine multiparty competition.

The Fourth Republic(1999-Present Day)

The Peoples Democratic Party(PDP) was the first national dominant party in the history of Nigeria.

The party held the Presidency, National Assembly majority, and most governorships for 16 consecutive years.

It employed massive patronage, control of INEC and security forces, and corruption of electoral processes especially under the 2007 election, described as “do-or-die” by President Obasanjo.

Opposition victories were rare to see with only Lagos, ANPP strongholds as the opposition voice. Although victories were possible, just that there were rare, it showed that the system was competitive, authoritarian rather than full one-party rule.

Dominance ended in 2015 due to internal fragmentation (the 2013–14 defection of the “nPDP” bloc to APC) and widespread public discontent over insecurity and corruption, not via a level playing field.

In 2015, APC’s era came and won the presidency (Buhari) and, by 2023, controlled 22 of 36 states.

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By 2024 till this very moment in 2025, the ruling APC has been massively receiving politicians from the main opposition PDP and others into its fold. The most recent of it was the defection of governor Fubara of Rivers State.

The tsunami has left the PDP with just 5 governors now: governor Fintiri of Adamawa State, Dauda Lawal of Zamfara State, Caleb Muftwang of Plateau State, governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State, and Bala Mohammed of Bauchi State.

Governor Agbu Kefas of Taraba State and governor Adeleke of Osun State would have been the sixth and seventh governors for the party respectively, but reports have it that the former has also defected to the APC. Although, official declaration for that is yet to happen as it has been scheduled to hold next year January, 2026.

While governor Adeleke has officially joined the Accord Party and has picked the gubernatorial form for his second tenure.

Reports also have it that governor Caleb Muftwang of Plateau State is one step away from joining the ruling All Progressives Congress, citing heightened differences between him and some of the state executives of APC as the impediment to his official alignment.

The party, APC, now commands a supermajority capable of constitutional amendments without opposition support with 73 Senators and 175 Representatives.

It has also 28 governors in total, leaving the opposition parties with 8.

5–for PDP
1–for LP
1–for NNPP
1–for Accord Party

The Mechanisms of Dominance

Speaking with a public affairs analyst and political scientist, Austin Patrick, he shared that history has shown that financial advantage has been the tool in which ruling party use to dominate since democratic era.

“The control of oil revenues, state contracts, the capture of NNPC, CBN, and other agencies; alleged use of anti-graft agencies to pressure opponents are different mechanisms in which the ruling party use to dominate.”

He continued, “we all know that the Okowa case with the EFCC will no longer come to the public after his defection to the APC.”

Mr. Austin also emphasized on the judicial favouritism which the country has been witnessing in recent times, citing the position of court as the final arbiter in recent times.

“Courts now play an unprecedented role in determining election winners—over 80% of petitions in the 2023 cycle were dismissed on technicalities rather than merits,” he said.

On the other hand, Dr. Kabir Sufi, who is also a political analyst, opined that the APC’s dominance is largely attributed to structural advantages and the factions in the opposition parties.

“Well, the combination of the APC’s usage of structural advantages and fragmentation of the opposition contribute to how bigger and wider the ruling party has become.”

He also highlighted on the rumor by many Nigerians that the said fragmentation and weakness of the opposition is largely the orchestration of the APC itself.

The Dangers Of One-Party System

Dr. Sufi asserted that the dangers of one party system is largely on democracy itself rather than intergovernmental relations and federalism spirit.

“The implications are mostly for democracy itself, it’s not allowing the opposition to thrive.”

“The advantages in which oppositions are to enjoy are not actually realistic,” he added.

Although Dr. Sufi acknowledged that there are a lot of factors that have allowed the situation to become what it is today.

Meanwhile, Mr. Austin was of the opinion that the danger of one party system is ultimately accountability erosion.

“Weak opposition breeds legislative and fiscal oversight.”

He noted that with no external threat, APC may become more autocratic, stifling pragmatic democracy.

Mr. Austin also stated that one party dominance contributes to voter apathy among citizens.

“The belief that elections don’t change outcomes may depress turnout and fuel political violence.”

Moreover, Dr. Sufi, when asked if the opposition have any chance to unsit the APC in the coming 2027 presidential election, said that:

“With the wave of defections to the APC, the task may be getting harder for the opposition unless if there’s an implosion within APC.”

Summarily, while it’s evident that Nigeria is on the verge of becoming a one-party nation, it’s worth noting that it’s not yet completely a one-party state. Multiple parties still exist and compete, but it exhibits clear dominant-party authoritarian characteristics similar to the PDP’s peak (2003–2011).

The difference is that the current opposition is more fragmented and demoralized than in the past.

A thorough examination will reveal to one that dominant-party politics in Nigeria follows a cyclical pattern: a party gains power, uses state resources to entrench itself, becomes corrupt and fragmented, then collapses from internal splits rather than electoral defeat. The APC appears to be in the entrenchment phase, Nigerian Tracker News observed.

Yusuf Danjuma Yunusa is a freelance journalist and a reporter with the Nigerian Tracker News. He can be reached via: theonlygrandeur@gmail.com or 07069180810

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President Tinubu Declines Meeting with S’African Envoy, Directs Delegation to Foreign Affairs Minister

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By Yusuf Danjuma Yunusa

President Bola Tinubu on Monday declined to receive a special delegation from South African President, Cyril Ramaphosa, over the ongoing xenophobic attacks on Nigerians in South Africa, directing the visiting team to instead meet with the Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Ambassador Sola Enikanolaiye.

Multiple credible Presidency sources with knowledge of the development confirmed to PUNCH Online that the delegation, led by South Africa’s Minister of International Relations and Cooperation, Ronald Lamola, had sought an audience with the President after arriving in Abuja on Friday.

Instead, Tinubu instructed them to engage with Enikanolaiye, who was appointed Minister of State for Foreign Affairs in June 2026 after Ambassador Bianca Odumegwu-Ojukwu was elevated to the substantive ministerial position following the exit of Yusuf Tuggar.

The development comes amid a diplomatic row between both countries over renewed xenophobic attacks targeting Nigerians and other African nationals in South Africa, which forced the evacuation of nearly 600 Nigerians back home.

One Presidency source said, “They actually came here on Friday wanting to see the President. But there was no prior notice.

“And we said we can’t just allow you to see the President without first asking him if he is available. So we asked, and the President said they could come on Monday.

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“But when Monday came, he simply said they should go and meet the Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Ambassador Enikanolaiye, and whatever they discuss, the Minister would come and brief him.”

A second source confirmed the President’s decision, saying, “I just confirmed it. He is not seeing them. The meeting is not happening.”

A third Presidency official added, “We don’t have that on the schedule today.”

The South African delegation reportedly remained in Abuja throughout the weekend after arriving on July 24, carrying a message from Ramaphosa.

Sources further disclosed that the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ambassador Bianca Odumegwu-Ojukwu, who is attending official engagements in Addis Ababa, had advised that it was not an appropriate time for the President to personally receive the South African delegation while attacks on Nigerians and their businesses were still ongoing.

Receiving the South African delegation in Abuja, Enikanolaiye said Tinubu directed him to engage the envoys on resolving the crisis, stressing that the longstanding relationship between Nigeria and South Africa should not be undermined by attacks on African migrants.

“It is with profound pleasure that I welcome our brothers from South Africa. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu had actually asked us to meet with you and exchange views and perspectives on how to address and resolve the ongoing Afrophobic attacks in South Africa, of which Nigerians, and other citizens of Africa, have been victims,” he said.

The minister lamented the recurring attacks on Nigerians, recalling that such incidents had persisted for decades.

“We have seen a pattern emerge as early as 1995, 1998, 2006, 2015, 2016, 2019, 2021, 2024 and 2026. It is on record that from 2022 alone, 98 Nigerians have died in mob actions, in hate-related actions that we have called Afrophobia, because we found that the preponderant victims of this ugly situation are Africans and Nigerians in particular,” he said.

Enikanolaiye recalled Nigeria’s role in supporting South Africa’s liberation from apartheid and said the violence was inconsistent with the relationship both countries had built over the years.

He stressed that while Nigeria does not support criminality, anyone accused of committing offences should face due process rather than mob violence.

“If someone is, quote-unquote, a criminal for drug trafficking, there are rules, there are regulations for when they are arrested, prosecuted, and jailed.”

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APC Youths Demand Nationwide Ban on Rarara’s Songs at Party Activities

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The Coalition of APC Progressive Youths has called on the leadership of the All Progressives Congress (APC) to prohibit the use of songs by popular political singer Dauda Adamu Kahutu, popularly known as Rarara, at all party activities across the national and state levels.

The group’s National Chairman, Hon. Sadiq Ali Sango, made the call in a statement issued to journalists in Abuja on Monday.

Sango alleged that Rarara’s songs have become more detrimental than beneficial to the ruling party, accusing the singer of using abusive language and divisive messages that undermine unity within the APC.

According to him, rather than promoting harmony among party members, Rarara’s style of political music has fueled hatred and deepened internal divisions.

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He further alleged that the singer has repeatedly targeted senior party leaders and elders with insulting lyrics, describing such conduct as inconsistent with the values and principles of the APC.

The coalition also accused Rarara of sponsoring campaigns against the Deputy President of the Senate, Senator Barau I. Jibrin, claiming that the campaign encouraged some youths to launch personal attacks against the senator and make what it described as unfounded allegations against him.

The youth group condemned what it called Rarara’s “continuous politics of insults and character assassination,” warning that such actions could damage the party’s image ahead of future political contests.

Sango urged the APC National Working Committee (NWC) and other party stakeholders to immediately ban the use of Rarara’s songs at official party functions, rallies, and other political activities nationwide.

He added that the coalition would pursue all lawful and necessary measures to challenge what it described as conduct capable of causing disunity within the APC.

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Hon. Abubakar Bichi Commissions 120 Health Workers in Bichi

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The Kabir Abubakar Bichi Foundation has commissioned 120 temporary health workers who will be deployed across primary healthcare centres in Bichi Local Government Area of Kano State.

The commissioning ceremony was led by the Member representing Bichi Federal Constituency, Hon. Abubakar Kabir Abubakar, on Saturday in Bichi. The event was attended by the Kano State Commissioner for Health, Dr. Abubakar Labaran Yusuf, alongside other dignitaries.

Speaking at the event, Hon. Abubakar Kabir Abubakar announced that the Federal Government is set to establish a new teaching hospital in Bichi Local Government Area to improve healthcare delivery.

“I recently attended meetings on education and healthcare development. As you know, we have Aminu Kano Teaching Hospital, and I want to assure you that we are working closely with the Minister of Health and the Chief Medical Director of Aminu Kano Teaching Hospital to facilitate the establishment of a new teaching hospital in Bichi,” he said.

Abubakar Kabir Abubakar added that the project is receiving strong support from President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

“We must appreciate President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for his unwavering support for the development of the healthcare sector. We are currently working towards securing the President’s final approval for the project under this year’s budget,” he said.

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Hon. Abubakar Kabir Abubakar, who also serves as the Chairman of the House Committee on Appropriations, reaffirmed his commitment to improving healthcare delivery. He disclosed that efforts are underway to upgrade Bichi General Hospital to the status of a specialist hospital in order to provide more advanced medical services and reduce pressure on major referral hospitals in Kano State.

He said “We are pleased to inform the Commissioner that we have completed the installation of equipment for the radiology department at Bichi General Hospital. The equipment includes a digital X-ray machine, 40 oxygen machines, and four dialysis machines, with an additional four dialysis machines expected soon.

“We are now awaiting the arrival of a 64-slice CT scan machine to complete the project. Once the remaining equipment arrives, we will be honoured to invite you and Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf to officially commission the upgraded facilities.

“We also plan to upgrade the surgical and operating theatre of Bichi General Hospital to meet the standards of leading hospitals across Kano State. Our goal is to strengthen healthcare delivery by reducing congestion at major referral hospitals in Kano metropolis, particularly Murtala Muhammad Specialist Hospital and Muhammad Abdullahi Wase Specialist Hospital, Nasarawa, where increasing patient numbers are placing pressure on healthcare personnel and facilities.

“As Kano’s population continues to grow, expanding and equipping secondary healthcare facilities such as Bichi General Hospital has become essential to ensuring timely access to quality healthcare for our people.”

Hon. Abubakar Kabir Abubakar also appealed to the Kano State Government to upgrade Danzabuwa and Saye Primary Healthcare Centres to General Hospitals, assuring the government of his full support in providing infrastructure and medical equipment for the facilities.

He commended the health committee, led by Professor Yusuf Muhammad, for conducting a transparent screening exercise for the newly recruited health workers.

He urged the newly commissioned workers to discharge their responsibilities with professionalism, dedication, and integrity in the service of their communities.

The lawmaker further appealed to the Kano State Government, under the leadership of Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf, to absorb the 120 temporary health workers into the state’s permanent and pensionable workforce.

He also praised Governor Yusuf for his investments in the health and education sectors, describing them as significant contributions to improving the welfare and well-being of the people of Kano State.

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