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SPECIAL REPORT:“Nigeria’s Democracy and the Endless Cycle of One-Party Dominance”

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A historical analysis reveals how Nigeria’s democracy repeatedly succumbs to one-party dominance, with the current regime being worst as it perfects the playbook of past eras.

By Yusuf Danjuma Yunusa

Dominant-party politics—where one party consistently controls political power while opposition exists but faces significant systemic disadvantages—has manifested at various points in Nigeria’s political history. While the current situation under President Bola Tinubu’s APC-led administration is evidently worst as it shows concerning trends toward a total dominance, historical precedents exist, particularly during the First Republic and the prolonged military eras that indirectly shaped party systems.

In The First Republic(1963-1966)

Nigeria’s first experiment with multiparty democracy effectively functioned as a “three-dominant-party system” at the regional level:

If checked critically in the Northern region as at that time, the Northern People’s Congress (NPC) held virtually unassailable dominance, leveraging the feudal structure, ethnic solidarity (Hausa-Fulani), and control of Native Authority police and taxation. Opposition parties like the Northern Elements Progressive Union (NEPU) were systematically marginalized.

While in the Western region, the Action Group (AG) under Chief Obafemi Awolowo dominated until the 1962–63 crisis, which split the party and led to a federal government-backed takeover by the Nigerian National Democratic Party (NNDP).

In the Eastern region the National Council of Nigerian Citizens (NCNC) held sway, though with more competitive politics than the North.

It’s worth noting that this was regionalized dominance rather than a single nationwide dominant party. The federal government was a fragile NPC-NCNC coalition.

In The Second Republic(1979-1983)

The National Party of Nigeria (NPN) emerged as a nationwide dominant party in the second republic.

It won the presidency with Shehu Shagari as its candidate without a clear popular majority. But through patronage, co-optation of opponents (“boarding the bus”), and control of federal resources, the NPN gained “surprise” gubernatorial victories and parliamentary seats, particularly in the 1983 elections—which was widely viewed as heavily rigged.

It used federal might to unseat opposition governors, a good example of it which is the Ondo State saga, through controversial judicial processes.

National Party of Nigeria(NPN) had a parallel mode of operations to today’s administration of President Tinubu. The party was also a broad, pragmatic coalition of elites from multiple regions–like the APC–using control of the petroleum boom economy to reward loyalty and fellowship.

In the military era, there usually would be nothing as party politics. Military rule suppressed party politics entirely but orchestrated networks and a centralized federal might that later shaped civilian dominant-party tendencies.

This was evident in the 1989–1993 two-party experiment (SDP and NRC) imposed by Gen. Babangida. It was an artificial, state-created duopoly—not genuine multiparty competition.

The Fourth Republic(1999-Present Day)

The Peoples Democratic Party(PDP) was the first national dominant party in the history of Nigeria.

The party held the Presidency, National Assembly majority, and most governorships for 16 consecutive years.

It employed massive patronage, control of INEC and security forces, and corruption of electoral processes especially under the 2007 election, described as “do-or-die” by President Obasanjo.

Opposition victories were rare to see with only Lagos, ANPP strongholds as the opposition voice. Although victories were possible, just that there were rare, it showed that the system was competitive, authoritarian rather than full one-party rule.

Dominance ended in 2015 due to internal fragmentation (the 2013–14 defection of the “nPDP” bloc to APC) and widespread public discontent over insecurity and corruption, not via a level playing field.

In 2015, APC’s era came and won the presidency (Buhari) and, by 2023, controlled 22 of 36 states.

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By 2024 till this very moment in 2025, the ruling APC has been massively receiving politicians from the main opposition PDP and others into its fold. The most recent of it was the defection of governor Fubara of Rivers State.

The tsunami has left the PDP with just 5 governors now: governor Fintiri of Adamawa State, Dauda Lawal of Zamfara State, Caleb Muftwang of Plateau State, governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State, and Bala Mohammed of Bauchi State.

Governor Agbu Kefas of Taraba State and governor Adeleke of Osun State would have been the sixth and seventh governors for the party respectively, but reports have it that the former has also defected to the APC. Although, official declaration for that is yet to happen as it has been scheduled to hold next year January, 2026.

While governor Adeleke has officially joined the Accord Party and has picked the gubernatorial form for his second tenure.

Reports also have it that governor Caleb Muftwang of Plateau State is one step away from joining the ruling All Progressives Congress, citing heightened differences between him and some of the state executives of APC as the impediment to his official alignment.

The party, APC, now commands a supermajority capable of constitutional amendments without opposition support with 73 Senators and 175 Representatives.

It has also 28 governors in total, leaving the opposition parties with 8.

5–for PDP
1–for LP
1–for NNPP
1–for Accord Party

The Mechanisms of Dominance

Speaking with a public affairs analyst and political scientist, Austin Patrick, he shared that history has shown that financial advantage has been the tool in which ruling party use to dominate since democratic era.

“The control of oil revenues, state contracts, the capture of NNPC, CBN, and other agencies; alleged use of anti-graft agencies to pressure opponents are different mechanisms in which the ruling party use to dominate.”

He continued, “we all know that the Okowa case with the EFCC will no longer come to the public after his defection to the APC.”

Mr. Austin also emphasized on the judicial favouritism which the country has been witnessing in recent times, citing the position of court as the final arbiter in recent times.

“Courts now play an unprecedented role in determining election winners—over 80% of petitions in the 2023 cycle were dismissed on technicalities rather than merits,” he said.

On the other hand, Dr. Kabir Sufi, who is also a political analyst, opined that the APC’s dominance is largely attributed to structural advantages and the factions in the opposition parties.

“Well, the combination of the APC’s usage of structural advantages and fragmentation of the opposition contribute to how bigger and wider the ruling party has become.”

He also highlighted on the rumor by many Nigerians that the said fragmentation and weakness of the opposition is largely the orchestration of the APC itself.

The Dangers Of One-Party System

Dr. Sufi asserted that the dangers of one party system is largely on democracy itself rather than intergovernmental relations and federalism spirit.

“The implications are mostly for democracy itself, it’s not allowing the opposition to thrive.”

“The advantages in which oppositions are to enjoy are not actually realistic,” he added.

Although Dr. Sufi acknowledged that there are a lot of factors that have allowed the situation to become what it is today.

Meanwhile, Mr. Austin was of the opinion that the danger of one party system is ultimately accountability erosion.

“Weak opposition breeds legislative and fiscal oversight.”

He noted that with no external threat, APC may become more autocratic, stifling pragmatic democracy.

Mr. Austin also stated that one party dominance contributes to voter apathy among citizens.

“The belief that elections don’t change outcomes may depress turnout and fuel political violence.”

Moreover, Dr. Sufi, when asked if the opposition have any chance to unsit the APC in the coming 2027 presidential election, said that:

“With the wave of defections to the APC, the task may be getting harder for the opposition unless if there’s an implosion within APC.”

Summarily, while it’s evident that Nigeria is on the verge of becoming a one-party nation, it’s worth noting that it’s not yet completely a one-party state. Multiple parties still exist and compete, but it exhibits clear dominant-party authoritarian characteristics similar to the PDP’s peak (2003–2011).

The difference is that the current opposition is more fragmented and demoralized than in the past.

A thorough examination will reveal to one that dominant-party politics in Nigeria follows a cyclical pattern: a party gains power, uses state resources to entrench itself, becomes corrupt and fragmented, then collapses from internal splits rather than electoral defeat. The APC appears to be in the entrenchment phase, Nigerian Tracker News observed.

Yusuf Danjuma Yunusa is a freelance journalist and a reporter with the Nigerian Tracker News. He can be reached via: theonlygrandeur@gmail.com or 07069180810

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Kano Task Force Intensifies PVC Registration Campaign at Yan Lemo Market

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The Kano State Task Force Committee on Voter Registration Mobilisation has intensified its campaign to encourage eligible residents to obtain their Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs) with an advocacy visit to Yan Lemo Market in Na’ibawa, the largest fruit market in Kano State. The outreach was carried out by the Sub-Committee on Engagement with the Business Community as part of efforts to ensure that no eligible voter is left out of the ongoing voter registration exercise.

Speaking during the visit, Chairman of Yan Lemo Market, Alhaji Muhammadu, welcomed the delegation and commended the committee for identifying the market as a strategic partner in the voter registration campaign. He expressed appreciation for the initiative and appealed to the Kano State Government to make voter registration more accessible to traders and business owners, noting that the nature of their commercial activities often makes it difficult for them to leave their businesses to register.

Addressing the traders, the Chairman of the Sub-Committee on Engagement with the Business Community, Alhaji Tijjani Abdullahi Sarki, described the possession of a Permanent Voter Card as both a constitutional right and a civic responsibility. He urged eligible residents to take advantage of the ongoing registration exercise to secure their PVCs and participate in future elections.

According to Alhaji Sarki, the registration exercise is open to first-time registrants, Nigerians who have attained the age of 18 since the last voter registration exercise, individuals seeking to transfer their voting location following a change of residence, those requesting corrections to their personal information, as well as citizens whose voter cards have been lost or damaged.

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He further assured the traders of the Kano State Government’s commitment to promoting wider voter participation across the state. He said the concerns and requests presented by the market leadership, particularly the need for easier access to registration centres for traders, would be forwarded to the main Task Force Committee for appropriate consideration and necessary action.

Also speaking during the engagement, the Secretary of the Sub-Committee, Alhaji Hassan Kofar Mata, thanked the market executives and traders for their warm reception and active participation throughout the sensitisation programme. He commended their interest in the exercise and encouraged them to mobilise other eligible members of the business community to register.

Responding to questions from traders, Alhaji Hassan explained the procedures for transferring voter registration from one Local Government Area to another, correcting personal records, replacing lost or damaged Permanent Voter Cards, and other voter registration-related processes. He urged residents to take advantage of the ongoing exercise to regularise their voter information and ensure they are eligible to participate in future elections.

The advocacy visit forms part of the Kano State Task Force Committee’s broader campaign to increase voter registration and strengthen citizens’ participation in the democratic process through sustained engagement with critical stakeholders, including business communities across the state.

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ADC Dissolves Kano State Executives, Constitutes Caretaker Committee

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The African Democratic Congress (ADC) has dissolved its Kano State executive committee and constituted a caretaker committee to oversee the affairs of the party pending the conduct of future congresses. The announcement was made on Monday in Kano by the party’s Deputy National Chairman (North West), Hajiya Najaatu Muhammad, during a press briefing at the Kano Press Centre.

Addressing journalists, Hajiya Najaatu Muhammad said the newly constituted caretaker committee would be chaired by Alhaji Umar Bala. She explained that the decision was taken by the national leadership of the party in line with its constitutional responsibility to preserve the unity, continuity and constitutional integrity of the ADC in Kano State.

According to her, the dissolution of the state executives and the inauguration of the caretaker committee should not be interpreted as a victory for one faction over another but as a constitutional response to an administrative situation within the party. She stressed that the move was aimed at restoring stability and ensuring the uninterrupted administration of the party in Kano State.

Hajiya Najaatu stated that the national leadership acted in accordance with the provisions of the party’s constitution, the Electoral Act and its responsibility to safeguard the future of the ADC. She maintained that when circumstances create a leadership vacuum within a political party, it becomes the duty of the national leadership to take appropriate constitutional measures to maintain order, discipline and continuity.

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She further emphasized that the constitution of the caretaker committee was not a judgment on the loyalty or commitment of party members across Kano State. According to her, thousands of members had sacrificed their time, resources and reputation to build the party at the grassroots and had remained committed even during difficult political periods, adding that their contributions remained appreciated by the national leadership.

Speaking on the mandate of the committee, Hajiya Najaatu said its primary responsibility was to heal divisions within the party rather than deepen them. She noted that the committee was expected to rebuild confidence in the party’s structures, strengthen its institutions, prepare for future congresses and ensure that every genuine member of the ADC had a place within the party.

She urged members of the caretaker committee to lead with fairness, humility, transparency and impartiality, saying their success would be measured not by the number of decisions they make but by their ability to reunite members under one platform. She advised the committee to consult widely, exercise patience and always regard leadership as a trust rather than a privilege.

The ADC Deputy National Chairman also appealed to party members across the 44 local government areas of Kano State to support the transitional arrangement in good faith. She assured members that the doors of the party remained open to everyone and called on stakeholders to embrace reconciliation, dialogue and unity in the overall interest of the party.

Hajiya Najaatu said the political environment ahead would require greater unity and discipline, warning that internal disagreements should not distract the party from presenting itself as a credible alternative to Nigerians. She urged members to channel their energy toward strengthening the party, mobilising supporters, expanding membership and engaging communities instead of focusing on internal divisions.

She expressed confidence that the future of the ADC in Kano State would be stronger if members remained faithful to the party’s constitution and democratic ideals. She called on members to replace division with dialogue, suspicion with trust and personal interests with the collective interest of the party, while praying for God’s guidance for the caretaker committee, Kano State and Nigeria.

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NANS Gives South African Businesses Four-day Ultimatum to Leave Nigeria

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By Yusuf Danjuma Yunusa

The National Association of Nigerian Students (NANS) has issued a four-day ultimatum to South African businesses in Nigeria to leave the country.

This is contained in a statement on Monday in Enugu, by Bestman Okereafor, NANS national executive director, corporate and private sectors engagement.

Mr Okereafor stated that after the expiration of the ultimatum, South African business interests would face the wrath of the more than 43.1 million Nigerian students across the country.

“The attention of the apex students governing body, NANS, has been drawn to continuous attacks, intimidation and subsequent chase of law-abiding, peaceful and hardworking Nigerians and other Africans from South Africa.

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“As the biggest student body in Africa, we are giving South African business interests four days to evacuate our beloved country, Nigeria.

“The reason for this action is simple: South Africans cannot continue to oppress and chase our people from their country and expect their businesses to thrive on our soil,” he said.

He also stated that immediately after the expiration of the ultimatum, the student body would consider picketing South African businesses, while further actions follow.

He called on the federal government and the African Union to take more decisive actions against South Africa for its “inimical” acts towards other Africans.

“It is on record that Nigeria played a major role in support of South Africa during the apartheid struggle and should never be paid with disloyalty, disrespect and global embarrassment,” he added.

It will be recalled that xenophobic attacks by South Africans on other Africans for some months had led to Nigerians being physically assaulted, embarrassed, intimidated, injured and some allegedly gruesomely murdered.

Several businesses and premises owned by Nigerians in South Africa were either completely burnt down or destroyed by rampaging South Africans during the xenophobic attack.

The perpetrators of these crimes had earlier given Nigerians and other Africans an ultimatum of June 30 to leave South Africa.

The federal government, through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, had in recent weeks airlifted hundreds of Nigerians from South Africa back to Nigeria.

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