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SPECIAL REPORT:“Nigeria’s Democracy and the Endless Cycle of One-Party Dominance”

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A historical analysis reveals how Nigeria’s democracy repeatedly succumbs to one-party dominance, with the current regime being worst as it perfects the playbook of past eras.

By Yusuf Danjuma Yunusa

Dominant-party politics—where one party consistently controls political power while opposition exists but faces significant systemic disadvantages—has manifested at various points in Nigeria’s political history. While the current situation under President Bola Tinubu’s APC-led administration is evidently worst as it shows concerning trends toward a total dominance, historical precedents exist, particularly during the First Republic and the prolonged military eras that indirectly shaped party systems.

In The First Republic(1963-1966)

Nigeria’s first experiment with multiparty democracy effectively functioned as a “three-dominant-party system” at the regional level:

If checked critically in the Northern region as at that time, the Northern People’s Congress (NPC) held virtually unassailable dominance, leveraging the feudal structure, ethnic solidarity (Hausa-Fulani), and control of Native Authority police and taxation. Opposition parties like the Northern Elements Progressive Union (NEPU) were systematically marginalized.

While in the Western region, the Action Group (AG) under Chief Obafemi Awolowo dominated until the 1962–63 crisis, which split the party and led to a federal government-backed takeover by the Nigerian National Democratic Party (NNDP).

In the Eastern region the National Council of Nigerian Citizens (NCNC) held sway, though with more competitive politics than the North.

It’s worth noting that this was regionalized dominance rather than a single nationwide dominant party. The federal government was a fragile NPC-NCNC coalition.

In The Second Republic(1979-1983)

The National Party of Nigeria (NPN) emerged as a nationwide dominant party in the second republic.

It won the presidency with Shehu Shagari as its candidate without a clear popular majority. But through patronage, co-optation of opponents (“boarding the bus”), and control of federal resources, the NPN gained “surprise” gubernatorial victories and parliamentary seats, particularly in the 1983 elections—which was widely viewed as heavily rigged.

It used federal might to unseat opposition governors, a good example of it which is the Ondo State saga, through controversial judicial processes.

National Party of Nigeria(NPN) had a parallel mode of operations to today’s administration of President Tinubu. The party was also a broad, pragmatic coalition of elites from multiple regions–like the APC–using control of the petroleum boom economy to reward loyalty and fellowship.

In the military era, there usually would be nothing as party politics. Military rule suppressed party politics entirely but orchestrated networks and a centralized federal might that later shaped civilian dominant-party tendencies.

This was evident in the 1989–1993 two-party experiment (SDP and NRC) imposed by Gen. Babangida. It was an artificial, state-created duopoly—not genuine multiparty competition.

The Fourth Republic(1999-Present Day)

The Peoples Democratic Party(PDP) was the first national dominant party in the history of Nigeria.

The party held the Presidency, National Assembly majority, and most governorships for 16 consecutive years.

It employed massive patronage, control of INEC and security forces, and corruption of electoral processes especially under the 2007 election, described as “do-or-die” by President Obasanjo.

Opposition victories were rare to see with only Lagos, ANPP strongholds as the opposition voice. Although victories were possible, just that there were rare, it showed that the system was competitive, authoritarian rather than full one-party rule.

Dominance ended in 2015 due to internal fragmentation (the 2013–14 defection of the “nPDP” bloc to APC) and widespread public discontent over insecurity and corruption, not via a level playing field.

In 2015, APC’s era came and won the presidency (Buhari) and, by 2023, controlled 22 of 36 states.

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By 2024 till this very moment in 2025, the ruling APC has been massively receiving politicians from the main opposition PDP and others into its fold. The most recent of it was the defection of governor Fubara of Rivers State.

The tsunami has left the PDP with just 5 governors now: governor Fintiri of Adamawa State, Dauda Lawal of Zamfara State, Caleb Muftwang of Plateau State, governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State, and Bala Mohammed of Bauchi State.

Governor Agbu Kefas of Taraba State and governor Adeleke of Osun State would have been the sixth and seventh governors for the party respectively, but reports have it that the former has also defected to the APC. Although, official declaration for that is yet to happen as it has been scheduled to hold next year January, 2026.

While governor Adeleke has officially joined the Accord Party and has picked the gubernatorial form for his second tenure.

Reports also have it that governor Caleb Muftwang of Plateau State is one step away from joining the ruling All Progressives Congress, citing heightened differences between him and some of the state executives of APC as the impediment to his official alignment.

The party, APC, now commands a supermajority capable of constitutional amendments without opposition support with 73 Senators and 175 Representatives.

It has also 28 governors in total, leaving the opposition parties with 8.

5–for PDP
1–for LP
1–for NNPP
1–for Accord Party

The Mechanisms of Dominance

Speaking with a public affairs analyst and political scientist, Austin Patrick, he shared that history has shown that financial advantage has been the tool in which ruling party use to dominate since democratic era.

“The control of oil revenues, state contracts, the capture of NNPC, CBN, and other agencies; alleged use of anti-graft agencies to pressure opponents are different mechanisms in which the ruling party use to dominate.”

He continued, “we all know that the Okowa case with the EFCC will no longer come to the public after his defection to the APC.”

Mr. Austin also emphasized on the judicial favouritism which the country has been witnessing in recent times, citing the position of court as the final arbiter in recent times.

“Courts now play an unprecedented role in determining election winners—over 80% of petitions in the 2023 cycle were dismissed on technicalities rather than merits,” he said.

On the other hand, Dr. Kabir Sufi, who is also a political analyst, opined that the APC’s dominance is largely attributed to structural advantages and the factions in the opposition parties.

“Well, the combination of the APC’s usage of structural advantages and fragmentation of the opposition contribute to how bigger and wider the ruling party has become.”

He also highlighted on the rumor by many Nigerians that the said fragmentation and weakness of the opposition is largely the orchestration of the APC itself.

The Dangers Of One-Party System

Dr. Sufi asserted that the dangers of one party system is largely on democracy itself rather than intergovernmental relations and federalism spirit.

“The implications are mostly for democracy itself, it’s not allowing the opposition to thrive.”

“The advantages in which oppositions are to enjoy are not actually realistic,” he added.

Although Dr. Sufi acknowledged that there are a lot of factors that have allowed the situation to become what it is today.

Meanwhile, Mr. Austin was of the opinion that the danger of one party system is ultimately accountability erosion.

“Weak opposition breeds legislative and fiscal oversight.”

He noted that with no external threat, APC may become more autocratic, stifling pragmatic democracy.

Mr. Austin also stated that one party dominance contributes to voter apathy among citizens.

“The belief that elections don’t change outcomes may depress turnout and fuel political violence.”

Moreover, Dr. Sufi, when asked if the opposition have any chance to unsit the APC in the coming 2027 presidential election, said that:

“With the wave of defections to the APC, the task may be getting harder for the opposition unless if there’s an implosion within APC.”

Summarily, while it’s evident that Nigeria is on the verge of becoming a one-party nation, it’s worth noting that it’s not yet completely a one-party state. Multiple parties still exist and compete, but it exhibits clear dominant-party authoritarian characteristics similar to the PDP’s peak (2003–2011).

The difference is that the current opposition is more fragmented and demoralized than in the past.

A thorough examination will reveal to one that dominant-party politics in Nigeria follows a cyclical pattern: a party gains power, uses state resources to entrench itself, becomes corrupt and fragmented, then collapses from internal splits rather than electoral defeat. The APC appears to be in the entrenchment phase, Nigerian Tracker News observed.

Yusuf Danjuma Yunusa is a freelance journalist and a reporter with the Nigerian Tracker News. He can be reached via: theonlygrandeur@gmail.com or 07069180810

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NNPC Ltd Welcomes $800m Ima Gas Final Investment Decision

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The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) has welcomed the $800 million Final Investment Decision (FID) on the Ima Gas Project, describing it as a landmark development that affirms the growing viability of Nigeria’s upstream gas sector.

The project, located offshore in OMLs 112 and 117 and developed by AMNI International in partnership with TotalEnergies, will produce about 300 million standard cubic feet of gas per day at peak. The output will supply critical feedgas to Nigeria LNG Limited in support of its Train 7 expansion, which will increase capacity at the Bonny Island plant from 22 million tons per annum to 30 Mtpa.

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The FID was enabled by the Presidential Directives of 2024, which provided fiscal incentives for non-associated gas, streamlined contracting and lowered development costs. Ima is the fourth major gas project to reach FID under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, after Iseni, Ubeta and HI.

Group Chief Executive Officer, NNPC Ltd., Engr. Bashir Bayo Ojulari described it as “a decisive vote of confidence in Nigeria’s gas sector and in the bold reforms” that have created competitive terms and a predictable investment environment.

NNPC Ltd. also commends the collaboration between AMNI, TotalEnergies and the Nigerian financial sector, saying the model of indigenous operator, international partner and domestic capital is a template for future developments.

In a statement signed by Andy Odeh Chief corporate communications officer of NNPC Ltd. reaffirms its commitment to work with government, regulators and industry partners to sustain investment momentum and deploy Nigeria’s gas resources for industrialisation, job creation and long-term prosperity.

 

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At MAN AGM In Kano, Manufacturers Throng Dangote Pavilion Over ‘Peoples IPO’

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From Left: Alh Sabo Wada of the Kano Fire Service; Dangote Group Representative Abdulrazak Sambajo, Mr. Isah Musa of the VIO Office Kano, Mr Kassim Ibrahim Zonal Director, NAFDAC; Jonh Samuel Zonal Technical of the Dangote Cement Plc, Halima Muhammad, Dangote Feertiliser Limited and Ebaje Noah Dangoye of NASCON (Dangote Salt & Seasoning) at the 54th KANO-Jigawa MAN AGM Wednesday.

 

 

 

Manufacturers under the aegis of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) thronged the Dangote Group’s pavilion at the exhibition to seek information and clarification on the ongoing Public Initial Public Offering (IPO) of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals (DPRP).

The three-day Annual General Meeting (AGM) of the Kano-Jigawa Branch of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), the 54th in the series, ended on Thursday, with the Dangote Group’s representative hosting participants and engaging manufacturers who expressed keen interest in the ongoing Initial Public Offering (IPO) of the Dangote Refinery.

The Dangote Refinery Peoples’ IPO offers Nigerians and other eligible investors an opportunity to buy shares in the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals, thereby becoming part-owners of one of Africa’s largest industrial projects and participating in its future growth.

The Dangote Refinery IPO runs from 14 September to 13 October 2026.

Dangote Industries Limited is one of the sponsors of the 54th MAN AGM.

Earlier, in his opening remarks, the Chairman of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), Sharada/Challawa Branch, Alhaji Nura S. Madugu, highlighted the mounting burden of multiple taxes, levies and charges on manufacturers, warning that the situation is increasing the cost of doing business and undermining the competitiveness of local industries.

Madugu urged the Kano State and Federal Governments to ease the tax burden on manufacturers and accelerate efforts to harmonise taxes and levies imposed on businesses.

He particularly decried the practice of double and multiple taxation, which he said continued to place additional financial pressure on manufacturers already grappling with high energy costs, inadequate infrastructure, expensive financing, insecurity, foreign exchange challenges and unfair competition from imported goods.

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“We are especially concerned about instances of double and even multiple taxation, where the three tiers of government impose what is essentially the same levy under different names and different guises. This practice places our products at a serious disadvantage in their constant competition with imported goods, a disadvantage made worse by the high cost of alternative power supply and the volatility of the foreign exchange rate.

Madugu reminded the meeting of MAN’s enormous contribution to the society and provide employment to thousands of Nigerians, as well as participating actively in tax revenue generation for the country.

“We provide employment to thousands of Nigerians. We participate actively in tax revenue generation for the states and the federation through the deduction of Value Added Tax on our products, the remittance of Pay-As-You-Earn on behalf of our staff, and the payment of Withholding Tax, Education Tax, Tertiary Education Tax, Company Income Tax, and a whole host of other levies too numerous to mention individually. Beyond taxation, we also discharge our Corporate Social Responsibility diligently to the communities in which we operate.

“Even though what we receive in return remains modest, we continue, in strength and in good faith, to serve this nation and to hold up its economy. We do this because we believe in Nigeria and in Kano State. But it must be said plainly,” Madugu added.

In his remarks also, MAN Chairman, Bompai/Jigawa Branch, Mohammed Bello I. Umar, appreciated the association’s members for their resilience, commitment and continued investment in the Nigerian economy despite the difficult operating environment.

He pointed out that the meeting provides the members of the association with an opportunity to reflect on its activities, review the challenges confronting their businesses, acknowledge the progress they have made, and chart a stronger course for the future of manufacturing in the country.

However, he said, the members must acknowledge that manufacturing remains under serious pressure.

He highlighted that the high cost of energy, multiple taxes and levies, inadequate infrastructure, high financing costs, insecurity, foreign exchange challenges and unfair competition from imported goods continue to affect our competitiveness.

“One issue that requires our collective attention is the importation of contraband and substandard goods. These products undermine local manufacturers who invest heavily

“Reliable and affordable electricity remains one of the most important requirements for industrial development.

He however welcomed the ongoing electricity reforms and efforts by the Kano State Government and the State House of Assembly towards establishing a more effective electricity framework for the State.

He called for the swift implementation of reforms that will create a more reliable, competitive and affordable electricity market for industries.

He noted that manufacturers continue to provide employment, generate wealth, support local communities and contribute significantly to government revenue in production, employ Nigerians and comply with government regulations.

“We must therefore stand together and call for stronger enforcement at our borders and markets.

He urged the relevant government agencies to intensify the fight against smuggling, counterfeiting and the importation of goods that compete unfairly with locally

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NLC President Ajaero: It Is Wrong to Negotiate Minimum Wage Without Minimum Pension

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The President of the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), Comrade Joe Ajaero, has called for the simultaneous negotiation of minimum wage and minimum pension, saying it is wrong for government and organised labour to focus on workers’ wages without addressing the welfare of retirees.

Ajaero made the call while speaking at the National Pre-Retirement Summit, held at Shehu Musa Yaradua centre in Abuja where he raised concerns over the declining purchasing power of retirement savings and pensions as a result of inflation and other economic challenges.

According to the NLC President, the experience of retirees over the years has demonstrated the need for workers and policymakers to consider what happens to employees after they leave active service.

Ajaero said the depreciation of the value of money means that savings made during a worker’s active years could lose significant purchasing power by the time the worker retires.

He explained that a worker who saves ₦1 million at a particular period could find that the real value of the savings has substantially declined over time because of inflation and the rising cost of living.

“It is wrong for us to start negotiating minimum wage without negotiating minimum pension,” Ajaero said, stressing that retirement benefits must be treated as an important component of workers’ welfare.

The NLC President said the objective of the summit was to examine ways of protecting workers from falling into poverty after retirement, particularly by ensuring that pension contributions and retirement savings are effectively managed.

Ajaero said pension fund administrators and other stakeholders in the pension industry must ensure that workers’ contributions are preserved and managed in a manner that protects their value against economic depreciation.

He said the challenge facing retirees goes beyond the amount accumulated in their pension accounts, arguing that the real value of such funds must also be considered in the face of inflation and increasing living costs.

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According to him, the purpose of the discussion should be to develop mechanisms that would enable workers to enjoy a reasonable standard of living after retirement instead of becoming financially vulnerable when they leave active service.

Ajaero also questioned the adequacy of the existing provision allowing retirees to make a 25 per cent withdrawal from their retirement savings, saying such an amount may not provide sufficient financial support for retirees facing the realities of life after employment.

The NLC President called for consideration of mechanisms that would allow retirement contributions to serve as collateral for accessing funds, particularly for retirees who want to establish or manage businesses.

He argued that allowing workers to leverage their retirement savings as collateral could provide them with access to capital while preserving the broader objective of retirement security.

Ajaero said retirees who have acquired skills and experience during their years of service should be supported to use those skills to remain economically active after retirement rather than being left without adequate means of livelihood.

The labour leader also linked the removal of fuel subsidy to the declining purchasing power of pensioners, saying rising transportation and living costs can make existing pension payments inadequate.

Ajaero explained that a pensioner receiving ₦30,000, for instance, could face serious difficulties meeting basic transportation and other expenses when the cost of fuel and other essential commodities rises.

According to him, pension policy must therefore take inflation into account so that pension benefits do not lose their purchasing power as the cost of living increases.

He called for pension investments and benefits to be reviewed in line with prevailing inflationary trends, arguing that the value of retirement income should be protected against sustained increases in prices.

Ajaero further urged the National Pension Commission (PenCom), pension fund administrators and other policymakers to establish stronger channels of communication with workers and contributors.

He said workers who make regular contributions to pension schemes should have opportunities to interact directly with regulators and policymakers so that their experiences and concerns can influence decisions affecting the pension system.

The NLC President said such interaction would enable policymakers to better understand the challenges faced by contributors and retirees, particularly those struggling with the effects of inflation and the rising cost of living.

Ajaero said the labour movement would continue to advocate policies that protect workers not only during their active years but also after retirement, stressing that retirement security should remain an integral part of labour negotiations.

He said the discussions at the National Pre-Retirement Summit were therefore aimed at finding practical solutions to the challenges confronting workers and retirees and preventing poverty in old age.

The NLC President maintained that a comprehensive approach to workers’ welfare must cover both minimum wage during active employment and adequate pension after retirement, saying the two issues should not be treated separately.

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