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SPECIAL REPORT:“Nigeria’s Democracy and the Endless Cycle of One-Party Dominance”

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9 months ago

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Nigeria's Map

 

A historical analysis reveals how Nigeria’s democracy repeatedly succumbs to one-party dominance, with the current regime being worst as it perfects the playbook of past eras.

By Yusuf Danjuma Yunusa

Dominant-party politics—where one party consistently controls political power while opposition exists but faces significant systemic disadvantages—has manifested at various points in Nigeria’s political history. While the current situation under President Bola Tinubu’s APC-led administration is evidently worst as it shows concerning trends toward a total dominance, historical precedents exist, particularly during the First Republic and the prolonged military eras that indirectly shaped party systems.

In The First Republic(1963-1966)

Nigeria’s first experiment with multiparty democracy effectively functioned as a “three-dominant-party system” at the regional level:

If checked critically in the Northern region as at that time, the Northern People’s Congress (NPC) held virtually unassailable dominance, leveraging the feudal structure, ethnic solidarity (Hausa-Fulani), and control of Native Authority police and taxation. Opposition parties like the Northern Elements Progressive Union (NEPU) were systematically marginalized.

While in the Western region, the Action Group (AG) under Chief Obafemi Awolowo dominated until the 1962–63 crisis, which split the party and led to a federal government-backed takeover by the Nigerian National Democratic Party (NNDP).

In the Eastern region the National Council of Nigerian Citizens (NCNC) held sway, though with more competitive politics than the North.

It’s worth noting that this was regionalized dominance rather than a single nationwide dominant party. The federal government was a fragile NPC-NCNC coalition.

In The Second Republic(1979-1983)

The National Party of Nigeria (NPN) emerged as a nationwide dominant party in the second republic.

It won the presidency with Shehu Shagari as its candidate without a clear popular majority. But through patronage, co-optation of opponents (“boarding the bus”), and control of federal resources, the NPN gained “surprise” gubernatorial victories and parliamentary seats, particularly in the 1983 elections—which was widely viewed as heavily rigged.

It used federal might to unseat opposition governors, a good example of it which is the Ondo State saga, through controversial judicial processes.

National Party of Nigeria(NPN) had a parallel mode of operations to today’s administration of President Tinubu. The party was also a broad, pragmatic coalition of elites from multiple regions–like the APC–using control of the petroleum boom economy to reward loyalty and fellowship.

In the military era, there usually would be nothing as party politics. Military rule suppressed party politics entirely but orchestrated networks and a centralized federal might that later shaped civilian dominant-party tendencies.

This was evident in the 1989–1993 two-party experiment (SDP and NRC) imposed by Gen. Babangida. It was an artificial, state-created duopoly—not genuine multiparty competition.

The Fourth Republic(1999-Present Day)

The Peoples Democratic Party(PDP) was the first national dominant party in the history of Nigeria.

The party held the Presidency, National Assembly majority, and most governorships for 16 consecutive years.

It employed massive patronage, control of INEC and security forces, and corruption of electoral processes especially under the 2007 election, described as “do-or-die” by President Obasanjo.

Opposition victories were rare to see with only Lagos, ANPP strongholds as the opposition voice. Although victories were possible, just that there were rare, it showed that the system was competitive, authoritarian rather than full one-party rule.

Dominance ended in 2015 due to internal fragmentation (the 2013–14 defection of the “nPDP” bloc to APC) and widespread public discontent over insecurity and corruption, not via a level playing field.

In 2015, APC’s era came and won the presidency (Buhari) and, by 2023, controlled 22 of 36 states.

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By 2024 till this very moment in 2025, the ruling APC has been massively receiving politicians from the main opposition PDP and others into its fold. The most recent of it was the defection of governor Fubara of Rivers State.

The tsunami has left the PDP with just 5 governors now: governor Fintiri of Adamawa State, Dauda Lawal of Zamfara State, Caleb Muftwang of Plateau State, governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State, and Bala Mohammed of Bauchi State.

Governor Agbu Kefas of Taraba State and governor Adeleke of Osun State would have been the sixth and seventh governors for the party respectively, but reports have it that the former has also defected to the APC. Although, official declaration for that is yet to happen as it has been scheduled to hold next year January, 2026.

While governor Adeleke has officially joined the Accord Party and has picked the gubernatorial form for his second tenure.

Reports also have it that governor Caleb Muftwang of Plateau State is one step away from joining the ruling All Progressives Congress, citing heightened differences between him and some of the state executives of APC as the impediment to his official alignment.

The party, APC, now commands a supermajority capable of constitutional amendments without opposition support with 73 Senators and 175 Representatives.

It has also 28 governors in total, leaving the opposition parties with 8.

5–for PDP
1–for LP
1–for NNPP
1–for Accord Party

The Mechanisms of Dominance

Speaking with a public affairs analyst and political scientist, Austin Patrick, he shared that history has shown that financial advantage has been the tool in which ruling party use to dominate since democratic era.

“The control of oil revenues, state contracts, the capture of NNPC, CBN, and other agencies; alleged use of anti-graft agencies to pressure opponents are different mechanisms in which the ruling party use to dominate.”

He continued, “we all know that the Okowa case with the EFCC will no longer come to the public after his defection to the APC.”

Mr. Austin also emphasized on the judicial favouritism which the country has been witnessing in recent times, citing the position of court as the final arbiter in recent times.

“Courts now play an unprecedented role in determining election winners—over 80% of petitions in the 2023 cycle were dismissed on technicalities rather than merits,” he said.

On the other hand, Dr. Kabir Sufi, who is also a political analyst, opined that the APC’s dominance is largely attributed to structural advantages and the factions in the opposition parties.

“Well, the combination of the APC’s usage of structural advantages and fragmentation of the opposition contribute to how bigger and wider the ruling party has become.”

He also highlighted on the rumor by many Nigerians that the said fragmentation and weakness of the opposition is largely the orchestration of the APC itself.

The Dangers Of One-Party System

Dr. Sufi asserted that the dangers of one party system is largely on democracy itself rather than intergovernmental relations and federalism spirit.

“The implications are mostly for democracy itself, it’s not allowing the opposition to thrive.”

“The advantages in which oppositions are to enjoy are not actually realistic,” he added.

Although Dr. Sufi acknowledged that there are a lot of factors that have allowed the situation to become what it is today.

Meanwhile, Mr. Austin was of the opinion that the danger of one party system is ultimately accountability erosion.

“Weak opposition breeds legislative and fiscal oversight.”

He noted that with no external threat, APC may become more autocratic, stifling pragmatic democracy.

Mr. Austin also stated that one party dominance contributes to voter apathy among citizens.

“The belief that elections don’t change outcomes may depress turnout and fuel political violence.”

Moreover, Dr. Sufi, when asked if the opposition have any chance to unsit the APC in the coming 2027 presidential election, said that:

“With the wave of defections to the APC, the task may be getting harder for the opposition unless if there’s an implosion within APC.”

Summarily, while it’s evident that Nigeria is on the verge of becoming a one-party nation, it’s worth noting that it’s not yet completely a one-party state. Multiple parties still exist and compete, but it exhibits clear dominant-party authoritarian characteristics similar to the PDP’s peak (2003–2011).

The difference is that the current opposition is more fragmented and demoralized than in the past.

A thorough examination will reveal to one that dominant-party politics in Nigeria follows a cyclical pattern: a party gains power, uses state resources to entrench itself, becomes corrupt and fragmented, then collapses from internal splits rather than electoral defeat. The APC appears to be in the entrenchment phase, Nigerian Tracker News observed.

Yusuf Danjuma Yunusa is a freelance journalist and a reporter with the Nigerian Tracker News. He can be reached via: theonlygrandeur@gmail.com or 07069180810

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Thugs Attack Journalists During APC Rally in Kano

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10 hours ago

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September 5, 2026

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A group of suspected thugs on Saturday attacked journalists covering an All Progressives Congress (APC) rally in Kano State, smashing the windows and damaging a Radio Nigeria vehicle conveying members of the media.

The incident occurred shortly after the conclusion of a rally held at the Sani Abacha Stadium in Kano, where the leadership of a coalition of groups supporting President Bola Ahmed Tinubu was inaugurated.

According to eyewitness accounts, the thugs attacked a team of journalists who had gone to the venue to cover the event, targeting the Radio Nigeria, Pyramid FM vehicle in which some of the journalists were travelling.

The attackers reportedly used machetes and knives to strike the vehicle repeatedly, smashing its windows and damaging various parts of the bus.

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Among the journalists affected in the attack were Abdulbaki Ali Ahmad Sharifai of Guarantee Radio and Yakubu Gwagwarwa of Pyramid Radio.

One of the journalists who spoke to Nigerian Tracker said the presence of security personnel inside the Radio Nigeria bus did not deter the attackers from carrying out the assault.

The journalist said the thugs continued attacking the vehicle despite the fact that security agencies were inside the bus with the journalists.

According to him, the attack created fear and confusion among the journalists, who had attended the political gathering in the course of carrying out their professional duties.

The incident has raised concerns over the safety of journalists covering political activities in Kano, particularly during large political gatherings where journalists are expected to move freely and report events without intimidation or attacks.

The motive behind the attack was not immediately clear, and it was also unclear whether any arrests had been made in connection with the incident as of the time of filing this report.

The attack comes amid increased political activities in Kano and across the country as political groups mobilise support for their respective interests ahead of future elections.

 

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Gov. Mutfwang Orders Closure of Schools Across State as Diphtheria Hits Plateau

Published

13 hours ago

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September 5, 2026

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By Yusuf Danjuma Yunusa

Plateau State Governor, Caleb Mutfwang, has directed temporary closure of public and private primary schools across the state over diphtheria outbreak.

The disclosure was made in a statement on Saturday by the commissioner for information and communications, Joyce Ramnap.

She stated that the directive was effective from Monday.

She noted that the government took the decision as preventive measures against the spread of the disease.

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Mrs Ramnap noted that the suspected cases had been recorded in parts of Jos North, Wase, Jos South and Bassa Local Government Areas of the state.

“‎‎Accordingly, schools that have already resumed academic activities are also directed to close from Monday, September 7, 2026, and remain closed until further notice,” the statement noted.

The statement said the governor directed school proprietors, administrators, teachers, parents and guardians were to comply with the directive.

The governor also said schools should ensure that students and pupils remain at home throughout the period as part of measures to ensure their safety including the teaching and non-teaching staff during the period.

The statement added that Mr Mutfwang appreciated the stakeholders for their understanding and cooperation as the government continued to take appropriate measures in the best interest of the residents.

‎”Further information on the resumption of academic activities will be communicated to the public in due course,” he said.

Reports have it that 23 peoples have been killed by diphtheria in several communities, and 143 others infected in Jos North.

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Emir of Gumel, Ahmad Muhammad Sani, Dies After 45 Years on the Throne

Published

2 days ago

on

September 3, 2026

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The Emir of Gumel, His Royal Highness Alhaji Ahmad Muhammad Sani II, has died after more than four decades on the throne, bringing to an end the reign of one of Northern Nigeria’s longest-serving traditional rulers.

Ahmad Muhammad Sani II, who became the 16th Emir of Gumel, ascended the throne in 1980 following the death of his father, the late Emir Maina Muhammad Sani II. He subsequently received his staff of office from the then Governor of Kano State, the late Alhaji Abubakar Rimi, in 1981.

His death marks the end of a historic reign that spanned more than 45 years and covered some of the most significant political, social and administrative changes in the old Kano State and, later, Jigawa State.

Before ascending the traditional throne, the late Emir was actively involved in public service and politics. He served as Commissioner for Information, Internal Affairs and Culture in the Kano State Government during the administration of Governor Abubakar Rimi between 1979 and 1980.

His transition from political office to the traditional institution came after the death of his father in December 1980. Historical records indicate that Ahmad Muhammad Sani was selected to succeed his father on December 16, 1980, while his formal presentation with the staff of office followed on May 29, 1981.

As Commissioner for Information, he was associated with important developments in the media sector of the then Kano State. Records indicate that during his tenure, he played a role in the establishment of Triumph newspaper and CTV67 television station, now associated with the state’s television broadcasting history, while also overseeing the expansion of Radio Kano.

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His educational background was also notable. He attended Gumel Primary School and Hadejia Middle School before graduating from Kano High School at Rumfa College in 1961. He later obtained qualifications in Public Administration from the Institute of Administration in Zaria, now part of Ahmadu Bello University, and pursued further studies in Political Science and International Relations at Ohio University in the United States.

Before entering politics, Ahmad Muhammad Sani had worked with the Gumel Native Authority and later joined the Immigration Department, where he was posted to Ngamboru Ngala in present-day Borno State. He subsequently served as a senior government official in the Kazaure Divisional Office before moving into politics in 1978.

His long reign as Emir of Gumel made him one of the most experienced traditional rulers in Northern Nigeria. The Jigawa State Government describes him as the 16th Emir of Gumel and records that he had remained on the throne since 1981.

Over the years, the Emir became associated with efforts to promote peace, education, community development and the preservation of traditional values. His palace also played a role in mobilising communities around government programmes, including public health initiatives.

The World Health Organisation, for instance, previously identified the Emir of Gumel as one of the traditional rulers who played an active role in promoting immunisation activities in his emirate. The organisation reported that he publicly vaccinated his own children as part of efforts to reassure communities about the safety of polio vaccination.

Even in the later years of his reign, the Emir continued to participate in peace-building and community affairs. In 2025, he was represented at a farmers-herders peace meeting in Jigawa, where his message emphasised dialogue and mutual understanding as essential to achieving lasting peace.

In December 2025, the Emirate marked his 45th anniversary on the throne, with prominent national and traditional figures, including Vice President Kashim Shettima and the Sultan of Sokoto, participating in activities associated with the anniversary.

His death therefore comes after a reign that began in the final years of the Second Republic and continued through successive military governments, the return to democratic rule in 1999, the creation of Jigawa State and several generations of political leadership.

The Emir of Gumel’s reign also represented a unique bridge between political administration and traditional leadership. Having served as a senior political office holder before becoming a monarch, he brought extensive experience of government and public administration to the traditional institution.

With his passing, the Gumel Emirate loses a monarch whose tenure lasted more than four decades and whose public career had already begun before his accession to the throne.

Details concerning his burial arrangements, the circumstances surrounding his death and the process for selecting his successor are expected to be announced by the Gumel Emirate Council and the Jigawa State Government

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