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2023 And The Toughtened Top Dog In Tinubu

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By Bala Ibrahim.

If there is anything that played prominent in the build up to this particular general election is the word sentiment. Yes, sentiment, which the dictionary describes as a held or expressed opinion, had hoodwinked many people, such that some of them lost their senses of good judgement, alongside the quality of thinking rightly or wisely. As the results of the Presidential election continue to trickle in, two lessons are revealing themselves relevantly, viz: the pleasure of taking the path of the truth and the pains that could follow fallacy or falsehood.

My friend, Ameenu Ayama had written a fantastic article, in fact, an award winning essay, captioned, THE PLACE OF NORTHERN CHRISTIANS IN NATIONAL & NORTHERN POLITICS IN THE POST-2023 ERA. Because of the failure of some people, particularly the northern Christians, to position themselves on the path of the truth, religious sentiment was played wrongly, and that misguided judgement is now coming with some unpalatable consequences. A portion of the consequences of the misguided judgement was captured by Ayama, thus:

“Northern Christians have shown themselves to be a people whom the larger Muslim population in the North would never trust with to act as their representative or with political power, even on a sub regional level. No national politician worth his salt such as Tinubu will ever trust them or their leadership again”.

Atiku Abubakar and his co-travellers in the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, thought they could reap from the misjudgement of our friends, the northern Christians, but because like them, the PDP played treacherous to the zoning arrangement, which would have equitably taken power to the south, they couldnt escape the wrath or anger of those who see their action as a betrayal of trust. In simple terms, they are now going through the pains that follow fallacy or falsehood.

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As I write this article, the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, is positioning itself to commence releasing the results of the election, but already, from the exit poll, the Presidential candidate of the All Progressive Congress, APC, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, has undoubtedly been portrayed as a tough dog. Although voting is still ongoing in some states, due to reported violence, Tinubu and his supporters have reasons to remain smiling, based on the opinions of those who voted.

Elections: Amnesty International tasks security agents to respect citizens’ rights

If we go by the provision of the electoral law, that the President of Nigeria is elected using a modified two-round system, and to be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive a plurality of the votes and over 25% of the vote in at least 24 of the 36 states, alongside the opinion poll of people after leaving their polling stations, including the expressed opinion of President Muhammadu Buhari, there is enough reason to believe that Nigerians have danced to the widely held opinion, that power should shift to the south.

The opinion of people that voted in Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti, Ondo, Oyo, Osun, Kwara, Kogi, Niger, Nasarawa, Kaduna, Kastina, Kebbi, Zamfara, Sokoto, Borno, Yobe, Gombe and Bauchi, are expressly in favour of power shift. With the exception of states like Adamawa and Taraba, where sentiment was used against common sense, the general mood is to respect the arrangement of power shift. The implication of course is that the tough dog in Tinubu has been toughened.

I don’t want to delve much on the issue of Kano, which is Nigeria’s richest reservoir of crude votes, and the rationale behind Kwankwaso’s stance, but as an APC apologist, I would say to him, THANK YOU MADUGU. Yes, a big thank you to Kwankwaso for depriving Atiku and the PDP, the luxury of playing political polo in Kano.

In 2019, Atiku Abubakar of the PDP, got 391,593 votes from Kano, which represents 21.1 per cent of the total votes cast in the state. He lost to Buhari, who scored nearly 1.5m votes, or 78.9 per cent of the total votes cast. With Kwankwaso, a son of the soil in the race now, Atiku’s show in Kano would surely be a show of shame. This would toughen the tough dog in Tinubu, who Buhari said, is poised to be the next President of Nigeria.

Kwankwaso and his supporters may not be in favour of power shift, and I am not challenging them on that, but depending on how Kwankwaso play his cards in the coming gubernatorial elections, he has the chance to make or mar his political future. If he plays rightly and wisely, by taking a borrow from the idiom, he who fights and runs away, lives to fight another day, his political future can be prosperous.

But should he miscalculate, like the northern Christians did, the consequences could be politically disastrous, particularly because, in Nigeria, there is no guarantee to permanent political loyalty. Also, the President in waiting is a politician with prescience, and one that is known to deliberately plan and calculate well, how to get what they wants, regardless of the status of who he wants it from. The political sagacity of Tinubu is such that he can make easy, political conversion.

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UN Assembly: Nigeria Affirms Nuclear-Free Status, Seeks Overhaul of UN Domestic Jurisdiction Rule

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By Yusuf Danjuma Yunusa

Nigeria has categorically declared that it does not possess, nor has it ever pursued, nuclear weapons or any other weapons of mass destruction (WMDs). The country’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Ambassador Jimoh Ibrahim, delivered this affirmation during the 108th Plenary Meeting of the 80th Session of the UN General Assembly.

Ambassador Ibrahim, who also serves as Chairman of the UN Committee on Budget and Administration, used the global platform to reiterate Nigeria’s steadfast commitment to international disarmament efforts, specifically the cessation of nuclear testing and the complete elimination of WMD threats.

In a significant diplomatic intervention, the Nigerian envoy called for a re-evaluation of Article 2(7) of the United Nations Charter, which enshrines the principle of non-intervention in the domestic affairs of sovereign states. While acknowledging the importance of state sovereignty, Ibrahim argued that this provision should not serve as a shield to protect nations that engage in nuclear testing or possess WMDs. He stressed that the international community must retain the capacity to act against such threats, regardless of domestic jurisdiction claims.

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Conveying the official position of President Bola Tinubu, Ambassador Ibrahim detailed Nigeria’s robust domestic infrastructure for monitoring nuclear activities. He highlighted the Nigeria Atomic Energy Commission (NAEC) as the primary institution overseeing the country’s nuclear regulatory framework and ensuring compliance with international safety and non-proliferation standards.

Reinforcing its commitment to global security, Nigeria maintains active cooperation with several nuclear-capable states, including Russia, China, France, South Korea, and the United States. Ambassador Ibrahim noted that President Tinubu has directed him to intensify these partnerships, with a specific focus on collaborative efforts to permanently end nuclear weapons testing worldwide.

African Solidarity and the CTBT Anniversary
Aligning with the broader continental position, Ambassador Ibrahim endorsed the statement delivered by the African Group. He further congratulated member states on the 30th anniversary of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), reaffirming that Africa remains a designated nuclear-weapon-free zone—a status that has seen the continent categorically reject nuclear explosive testing.

“Nigeria neither possesses nuclear weapons nor has ever pursued a nuclear weapons programme,” Ibrahim stated emphatically, underscoring the nation’s dedication to a safer, nuclear-free world.

He urged all UN member states to sustain their momentum in the global campaign against nuclear testing, emphasizing that collective vigilance is essential to eliminating the existential threats posed by such arsenals.

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Education Stakeholders, SBMC Train Students on Skills for Self-Reliance

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Education stakeholders and School-Based Management Committees (SBMC) in Kano State have stressed the need to equip students with practical skills alongside formal education to prepare them for self-reliance and reduce dependence on government employment.

Chairman of the School-Based Management Committees (SBMC) in Kano State, Tijjani Haladu Baraya, said the skills training programme was important because education should not only prepare students to obtain certificates but should also equip them with practical knowledge that can enable them to earn a living after graduation.

Baraya explained that the initiative was designed to teach students various skills while they are still in school, stressing that having formal education does not necessarily guarantee automatic access to government employment.

According to him, the reality of the current employment market makes it necessary for students to acquire additional skills that would enable them to create opportunities for themselves rather than waiting for government jobs.

He said, “If you study, you will not necessarily get a government job,” adding that the programme was specifically introduced to teach children in schools practical skills that would enable them to rely on themselves after completing their education.

Baraya further emphasised the importance of encouraging female students to acquire vocational and entrepreneurial skills, noting that such knowledge could help women become economically independent and contribute meaningfully to their families and communities.

The SBMC chairman said the committees were fully supporting the initiative because students could graduate with both academic certificates and practical skills, which, according to him, would give them a better chance of becoming self-reliant.

He added that equipping students with skills would also enable them to support their parents and reduce the financial pressure on families, particularly at a time when employment opportunities were becoming increasingly competitive.

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Similarly, the Chairman of the Parent-Teachers Association (PTA) in Kano State, Dalhatu Salhu Maijumuri, described the training of students in practical skills as a highly important initiative capable of producing significant benefits for students, families and society.

Maijumuri said the programme would have a far-reaching impact because students who acquired practical skills could use them to establish businesses or provide services for themselves instead of waiting indefinitely for formal employment.

According to him, the era when students completed their education and immediately secured government jobs had largely passed, making it necessary for the education system to respond to the changing realities of the labour market.

“Gone are the days when students finish school and they will immediately get a government job,” Maijumuri said, pointing to the intense competition for the limited employment opportunities available.

He explained that where an organisation had only a few vacancies, thousands of qualified applicants could compete for the same positions, making reliance solely on formal employment an increasingly difficult option for young people.

“For example, now if there is a vacancy for like ten personalities, you will see hundred thousand people jostling for it,” the PTA chairman said, stressing the need for students to develop alternative means of livelihood.

Maijumuri therefore urged stakeholders in the education sector to continue supporting skills acquisition programmes in schools, saying that practical training would give students the ability to become self-reliant and productive members of society.

He further said that empowering students with vocational and entrepreneurial skills would not only benefit the individuals involved but would also reduce pressure on government to provide jobs for every graduate.

The PTA chairman also maintained that investment in skills acquisition would benefit future generations because children who received both formal education and practical training would be better positioned to contribute to economic development and build sustainable livelihoods.

He said the combination of academic education and practical skills would therefore strengthen the education system and ensure that students were prepared not only to seek employment but also to create employment opportunities for themselves and others.

The initiative, being implemented by the Society for Child Support and Economic Empowerment (SOCSEE) in partnership with Room to Read, will run from August to December 2026 across six Local Government Areas of Nasarawa, Fagge, Dala, Gwale, Kano Municipal and Kumbotso.

Speaking during a strategic one-day stakeholders’ meeting organised by SOCSEE in Kano, the organisation’s Executive Director, Sunusi Hashim, said the meeting was convened to review the project documentation and curriculum ahead of implementation.

 

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Economists Project 12–20 Years Before Nigerians Reap Gains from Tinubu Reforms

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By Yusuf Danjuma Yunusa

Economists say Nigerians may have to wait between 12 and 20 years to fully feel the benefits of President Bola Tinubu’s economic reforms.

According to them, the measures are likely to deliver gradual improvements in productivity and real incomes rather than immediate relief from high prices and declining purchasing power.

The economists told Nairametrics that major structural reforms typically involve a painful adjustment period before their benefits become evident, adding that the pace of improvement would depend largely on policy stability, infrastructure development, the rule of law and investments in productive sectors of the economy.

Chief Economist and Partner at SPM Professionals, Dr. Paul Alaje, said structural reforms generally take 12 to 20 years before their impact becomes significantly visible, although some countries have recorded meaningful results within six to 10 years.

“On the average, it takes 12 to 20 years before nations start feeling the impact of reforms. That does not necessarily mean such countries will see overnight reduction in their exchange rate. But what they will see is growth in real income as productivity expands,” Alaje told Nairametrics.
Financial economist at Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Dr. Felix Echekoba, also said major economic restructuring usually imposes short-term sacrifices before delivering long-term benefits.

“Most successful economic restructurings around the world imposed short-term sacrifices on the masses before long-term benefits.
“The challenge is working hard enough to ensure that the adjustment period does not become unnecessarily prolonged and that vulnerable citizens are protected,” he said.
According to Professor Tayo Bello, a development economist at Adeleke University, Nigeria’s experience is consistent with the pattern observed in other countries that have undertaken major subsidy and exchange rate reforms.

“There is no case of any country implementing major subsidy removal and exchange rate reforms without experiencing temporary economic distress. What matters are policy stability and whether the reforms ultimately fuel productivity and investment,” Bello said.
Why Nigerians are yet to feel the benefits
Tinubu introduced a series of far-reaching economic reforms after assuming office in May 2023, including the removal of petrol subsidies, liberalisation of the foreign exchange market, electricity tariff increases and tax reforms aimed at improving government revenue and fiscal sustainability.

The reforms have received support from international financial institutions, but their immediate impact has been overshadowed by elevated food and service prices, high interest rates and declining household purchasing power.

Alaje said the absence of key conditions needed to support structural reforms is limiting the speed at which Nigerians can benefit from the government’s policies.

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According to him, countries that have achieved faster results from reforms typically had functional institutions, respect for the rule of law, adequate infrastructure and a high level of citizen awareness.

“A functional system where the rule of law is respected and obeyed, abundant infrastructure evident in the availability of roads, electricity and rail system, as well as high level of citizen awareness” are among the factors that can accelerate the benefits of reforms,” he said.
Alaje said Nigeria still faces significant gaps in these areas, particularly infrastructure and institutional effectiveness.

“Businesses are now approaching the banks, but interest rates are not coming down. It ranges between 30 and 40%. Households are now struggling with a minimum wage of N70,000, with the country’s poverty rate at over 140 million, more than 60% of the population,” he said.
He added that the poorest Nigerians would bear much of the burden during the adjustment period, warning that reforms alone would not be enough to lift millions of people out of poverty within a few years.

“It will take more than a decade for the masses to feel any positive impact of Tinubu’s reforms,” Alaje said.
Infrastructure, investment key to reform gains
Bello said macroeconomic stability achieved through reforms would only provide the foundation for broader economic transformation.

“Macroeconomic stability is only the first step. The real benefits come when reforms are buttressed by investments in infrastructure, manufacturing, agriculture, education and technology,” he said.
He added that countries that successfully transformed their economies combined fiscal and monetary reforms with aggressive industrialisation strategies.

Echekoba similarly said the government must ensure that the adjustment period does not become unnecessarily long while putting measures in place to protect vulnerable households.

The economists’ assessment is consistent with experiences from countries that undertook major economic reforms before recording broader improvements in living standards.

India’s economic liberalisation programme, introduced in 1991 following a balance of payments crisis, helped restore macroeconomic stability within about two years. However, broader gains in foreign investment, industrial growth and poverty reduction became more evident over the following decade.
Ghana’s Economic Recovery Programme, introduced in the 1980s, also took several years before inflation declined significantly and economic growth became more sustainable.
Indonesia’s reforms following the 1997 Asian financial crisis similarly took several years to restore investor confidence and return the economy to a stronger growth path.
Egypt’s 2016 currency flotation and subsidy reforms initially triggered a sharp rise in inflation, which exceeded 30%. The economy subsequently recorded stronger growth, increased foreign investment and improved macroeconomic stability after several years of implementation.
These experiences suggest that the economic benefits of major structural reforms can take several years to become widely visible, particularly where reforms are accompanied by significant increases in the cost of living during the initial adjustment period.

Before the removal of petrol subsidies in 2023, the Federal Government was budgeting about N3.36 trillion annually for fuel subsidy payments.

The Tinubu administration had argued that ending the subsidy would free up resources for infrastructure development and social programmes designed to cushion the impact of the policy on households.

However, the economists said the extent to which Nigerians ultimately benefit from the reforms will depend on how effectively the government deploys the savings and creates conditions for higher productivity, investment and real income growth.

Source: Nairametric

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