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2023: The Fuss About Regions- Adetayo Balogun

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By Adetayo Balogun

 

 

It’s just more than 500 days to the 2023 Presidential election, and the permutations and possible combinations have started as to who Nigerians should vote. More loudly, discussions about the region to produce the next President has been more apparent and considered more necessary.

 

The Muhammadu Buhari administration has left Nigerians with mixed reactions. If feelers from the populace are anything to go by, it has left the people with more bitter pills to swallow. The excitement that followed the President’s candidacy in 2015 has since been extinguished with excruciating policies, a struggling economy and a shaky security architecture, all placing Nigeria in arguably its worst state yet.

 

Many argue that the current situation was always on the horizon, but Nigerians had little or no choice to make when they voted for Buhari in 2015. The country was in dire straits, and the next best option was always the messiah, hence the heavy support.

 

Four years later, Nigerians had a choice to make again in 2019, and it was former Vice President Atiku Abubakar against the incumbent, Buhari. Despite the noise about the nation’s state and the need for a positive turnaround, Nigerians elected Buhari again, winning mainly in the North and losing popularity in the South. In the 2019 election, the President garnered 44% and 41.7% of the total votes in the North-West and North-East, respectively, but only managed more than 20% in every geopolitical zone in the South except the South West.

 

The belief in the country is that the north voted Buhari in power again, and if left to the South, it’d have been another man at the helm of affairs.

 

In searching for the next President, there’s a debated preference for a Southerner to emerge; however, a section of the populace and those in the political space have clamoured for a united approach to the determination of the next President.

 

Katch Ononuju, the Director-General of the Heritage Centre, in an interview on News Central Television, argued that there’s no politician of the northern extract that can bring Nigerians together again. He said many Nigerians would prefer to see a Southerner become President, as the current administration has shown a nepotistic obsession with the North, which may affect the chances of any Presidential candidate from the region.

 

Political Analyst and the Spokesperson of the Presidential candidate of the PDP in the 2019 election, Segun Showunmi, argues that Nigeria’s next President should be any politician who has a known capacity to lead, regardless of the region he comes from. He said there is a debatable ground for different geopolitical zones to ask for their chance to produce the country’s next President.

 

Of all Nigeria’s geopolitical zones, the North West, which has the country’s highest population, has the state with the highest number of Presidents in Katsina. Late former President Umar Musa Yar’adua and incumbent Buhari are both from the state. Olu Segun Obasanjo from Ogun State and Goodluck Ebele Jonathan from Bayelsa State are known Southerners and have been Nigerian Presidents.

 

Despite this, there’s a belief that the emergence of Jonathan was more accidental than planned. If not for the painful and unfortunate demise of Yar’Adua, the South may never have had a shot at the Presidency beyond Obasanjo’s administration. This, many believe is arguable, but if considered critically and deeply enough, it may give pointers to where the nation stands.

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Goodluck Jonathan’s Emergence – A Southern Argument

 

 

In 2010, after the death of Yar’Adua, some powerful politicians openly stated their preference for a Northern replacement for Yar’Adua, with they argue that a Southerner could not become President again after Obasanjo. The constitution finally prevailed when Jonathan was sworn in as President.

 

The 2011 election would steer a new round of politicking and the powers favoured the former Bayelsa State Governor to finish what he’d started. This, to the Northern core enthusiasts, was a deviation from the expected arrangement. Jonathan’s emergence in 2011 wasn’t without contest, as he defeated Buhari, then of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) in that election. The Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) had Nuhu Ribadu as its Presidential candidate, and the PDP presented Atiku as its flag-bearer. This made Jonathan the strongest Southerner on the ballot, and he emerged.

Federal Govt Tasks State Governments on National Policy On Medical Oxygen

In 2015, the political framework and skeleton that ensured his victory four years earlier had been to a more powerful coalition. The All Progressives Congress and the rest, they say, is history. Jonathan, at the time, had only spent four years of his administration and six in total. More than the arrangement, he was a product of an accidental necessity that left the powers that be with little choice.

 

 

North, South… Does It Matter Where?

 

 

Since 1999, Nigeria has conducted six Presidential elections, and there has been an equitable distribution of regional arrangements, with the North and South producing Presidents two times.

 

This leaves the 2023 regional debate very open to voters’ choices more than political parties’ wishes. The ruling party and the main opposition are yet to state their positions on zoning in clear terms. Although some leading members of both parties have given a hint of their preference and the coming months are expected to lay open more arguments and the proper position of these parties.

 

Zoning, many politicians argue, is not engrained in their party’s constitutions and, therefore, leaves the field open to any interested candidate.

 

For strategy and feasting on the current mood in the country, political analysts have predicted that the leading parties are expected to cede their respective candidacies to the south. This, however, will also depend on the strength and popularity of the individuals ready to take on the mantle of leadership.

 

Some schools of thought also say that some political distributions are merely geographical and hold no essence in the depth of the recognition of regional identity. The North-Central feels hard done by the current administration, yet the tag “north” may stand a chance of ruining its political perception in the south. These arguments, analysts have advised, must be ironed out to produce the best candidate.

 

 

A Matter of “Who”

 

Many Nigerians can be excellent leaders, but not many can handle a complex country like Nigeria. The excruciating situation of Nigeria today begs for a leader with substance.

 

Former Military President Ibrahim Babangida suggests that the next President should be a man not above his 60s and with a good economic sense and coverage of the country. Automatically, this proves he’s looking beyond the possible candidacy of Atiku Abubakar or Bola Ahmed Tinubu; two experienced politicians touted to go head-to-head in 2023.

 

Chima Nnaji, a legal practitioner, said that Nigeria needs “an economic guru and a financial mechanic” to address the dwindling economy and bring the country back to its base. This, he identifies as the root of the troubles in the country.

 

The qualities listed above can be seen in Southern and Northern Nigerians. Still, analysts argue that a combination of possibilities, expected qualities and political arguments places a Southerner in better stead for the Presidency in 2023.

 

How strong that argument is and what Nigerians will decide is only a question of days to come.

Politics

Hon. Murtala Garo: Gov. Abba’s Political Masterstroke

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By Bashir Ahmad Gwarzo

As Governor Abba Kabir navigates his anticipated defection to the APC, and the eminent adamancy of his deputy to remain in NNPP, the substitution of the deputy governor is imminent. However, this is not merely an administrative vacancy to be filled. It is a pivotal strategic decision that will determine whether his political consolidation succeeds or collapses under the weight of competing interests and factional tensions. The question facing the governor is this: who possesses the character, competence, loyalty, and strategic value to serve as his anchor during one of the most turbulent periods of his political career?

Moreover, in the event, Deputy Governor Aminu Abdussalam’s impeachment became eminent, the development will obviously intensify hostility within the Kwankwasiyya faction against Governor Abba.

In this hostile environment, Abba cannot afford to select a deputy based on regional appeasement or factional compromise. The times demand strength, not capitulation; a leader who brings proven integrity, administrative excellence, and unwavering loyalty. Murtala Sule Garo embodies all of these. His proven loyalty to his political associates, combined with his well-documented generosity and philanthropic commitments, demonstrates a leader of principle and integrity. Garo’s strong family background and standing in society reflect the moral foundation necessary for high public office. In politics, loyalty cannot be manufactured; it must be demonstrated over time. Garo’s track record speaks for itself.

A deputy governor who embodies such qualities provides the governor with a trustworthy confidant during periods of political turbulence, which precisely what Governor Abba currently requires as he navigates the choppy waters of defection and factional realignment.
Some will argue that Kano South senatorial district deserves the deputy governorship.

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Their agitation is understandable, and their concerns are legitimate. But political leadership requires more than regional representation; it demands the balancing of competing interests based on merit and strategic necessity.
What Murtala Sule Garo brings to the administration far outweighs the representational argument. His proven track record in infrastructure development, educational reform, and grassroots mobilization offers tangible governance benefits that cannot be replicated.

Governor Abba can address south senatorial concerns through strategic appointments, board positions, and development projects, as an alternative mechanisms that satisfy regional aspirations without compromising the selection of the most competent deputy. To sacrifice administrative excellence on the altar of regional representation would be to diminish the governor’s capacity to govern effectively and deliver results.
Consider, moreover, Kano North’s political configuration. Both Murtala Sule Garo and Hon. Abba Bichi command significant political influence within the APC from this zone. Relationship between Garo and Deputy Senate President, Barau Jibrin politically might look strange, but this reality does not diminish Garo’s stature or viability. Rather, it demonstrates that Kano North’s political strength transcends any individual relationship or factional tension. By selecting Garo, Governor Abba consolidates the zone’s power and ensures robust representation at the highest levels of state governance. The zone’s influence remains undiminished regardless of inter-personal tensions.

The deputy governorship is not merely a ceremonial position; it is foundational to the governor’s re-election strategy for 2027. This is where Garo’s true strategic value becomes apparent. With his demonstrated capacity to mobilize hundreds of youth organizations across Kano’s 44 local government areas and his proven administrative competence, he is precisely the ally Governor Abba needs for a successful second-term bid.

As Commissioner for Local Governments, Garo spearheaded educational facility renovations across all 44 councils and executed critical infrastructure projects. His prior roles as Special Adviser to the Governor, Kabo Local Government Chairman, and ALGON Chairman demonstrate mastery of both local and state-level governance. This depth of experience is indispensable during political transition. Garo’s network, institutional knowledge, and track record make him an invaluable asset for campaign machinery and governance continuity. Selecting him is not merely an administrative convenience; it is a strategic investment in electoral viability.

The choice before Governor Abba is clear. He can select a deputy based on regional appeasement and watch his administration struggle under the weight of competing interests, factional hostility, and weak governance. Or he can select Murtala Sule Garo, a leader who consolidates grass-root power, brings proven administrative excellence, embodies loyalty and integrity, and positions him for a triumphant second term. This is visionary leadership.

Bashir Gwarzo write from Gwarzo Town

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Emerging Story from Gov. Abba’s Meeting with President Tinubu 

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By Yusuf Danjuma Yunusa

Kano State Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf’s speculated defection from the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC), is reportedly a step away from reality following a decisive meeting with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu at the Presidential Villa today, sources familiar with the discussions have confirmed.

According to insider reports, the governor’s team expressed renewed confidence after the private talks, which appear to have resolved weeks of political uncertainty. A senior APC figure from the North-West told Politics Digest that President Tinubu’s intervention has provided Governor Yusuf with the necessary assurances to proceed with his planned move to the ruling party.

While no official statement has been released, the source indicated that the president addressed a major obstacle in the negotiations—the governor’s eligibility for an automatic APC gubernatorial ticket in the 2027 election.

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“The path is now clearer,” the source stated. “The president has assured Governor Yusuf that his second-term ambition under the APC will be protected, provided he manages the internal political dynamics in Kano with care.”

Despite this progress, the presidency reportedly advised the governor against relying solely on top-level backing. He has been urged to continue consultations with key APC stakeholders in Kano to prevent potential internal friction.

This caution comes amid existing tensions within the state’s APC structure, involving factions loyal to Deputy Senate President Barau Jibrin and other influential figures with strong interests in Kano’s political future.

The mood within the governor’s camp marks a shift from earlier reports of hesitation from the APC leadership, which had been reluctant to offer written guarantees regarding an automatic ticket.

Governor Yusuf’s recent symbolic gestures—such as presiding over a state executive meeting in Abuja while wearing the red cap associated with the Kwankwasiyya movement—may soon give way to a formal declaration. The meeting with President Tinubu is understood to have been the final step before a public announcement that could reshape the political landscape of the North-West.

A significant unresolved factor remains the governor’s relationship with his political mentor, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso. As Governor Yusuf moves closer to the APC, Kwankwaso is reportedly exploring alternative political alignments.

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Freedom of Choice in Democracy: Why Kano Must Come First

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By Dr. Mukhtar Bello Maisudan

At the heart of any functioning democracy lies a core principle: freedom of choice. This is not simply a slogan; it is a fundamental democratic value upheld by scholars and practitioners alike. From Robert Dahl’s classical theories of polyarchy to Adam Przeworski’s work on democratic accountability, the ability of citizens—and their elected leaders—to reassess alliances and make independent political choices is central to democratic life. It is through this lens that the anticipated/planned decision by the Governor of Kano State to join the All Progressives Congress (APC) must be understood not as betrayal or disloyalty, but as an exercise of democratic agency in pursuit of service to the people of Kano.
Political theorist Robert Dahl argued that democracy is best understood as a system in which citizens have the continuing opportunity to influence decisions by choosing among alternative leaders and policies. In “Democracy and Its Critics,” Dahl emphasizes that political competition, realignment, and choice are not flaws in a system—they are signs of a healthy, responsive democracy. If democratic governance is to live up to its ideals, it must allow its actors the freedom to rethink, reassess, and reorient. This academic foundation supports the view that a political decision like the governor’s intended move is not a violation of democratic norms, but rather a legitimation of them.

Scholar Adam Przeworski, in his work on democratic accountability, stresses that leaders in a democracy are accountable first to the electorate, and not to permanent political patrons or ideological loyalties. Przeworski writes that democracy “requires leaders to be responsive to the preferences of their constituents over time,” implying that flexibility in political alignment is part of responsiveness, not defiance. In this context, the governor’s anticipated decision to join the APC can be seen as an attempt to align Kano State more effectively with federal structures to secure resources, representation, and political leverage for the state. Such a recalibration is not self-serving in itself; it is consistent with the demands of democratic accountability that prioritize public interest.

Kano State is not a laboratory for personal loyalties. It is a large, diverse, and dynamic state with pressing developmental needs—needs that transcend party labels. Political scientist Larry Diamond argues in “Developing Democracy” that the essence of democratic leadership is the capacity to deliver effective governance and improve citizens’ welfare. By this measure, the legitimacy of political decisions must ultimately be judged by their impact on the lives of citizens. Consider key areas where Kano State’s government has demonstrated focus and progress:
Infrastructure development: Sustained investment in road networks to improve transportation and commerce across urban and rural areas.
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Education reforms: Efforts to improve learning outcomes, enhance school environments, and provide opportunities for Kano’s youth.

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Healthcare delivery: Expanding community health services and strengthening public health institutions.

Urban renewal and sanitation: Upholding the dignity of public spaces and improving living conditions in towns and cities.
Economic empowerment: Programs aimed at supporting small businesses, traders, and vulnerable populations.

These are pragmatic governance actions that speak to a vision of development beyond political rhetoric.

Critics may label the governor’s anticipated decision a “betrayal” of Dr. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso. However, such a framing collapses complex political dynamics into oversimplified moral judgments. Political scientists Hana Bäck and Patrick Dumont point out in their research on party systems that politics is inherently dynamic and rooted in strategic considerations, not static allegiances.

Kwankwaso himself is engaged in political navigation and future planning—an entirely legitimate democratic pursuit. If political motivation is acceptable for one leader, it cannot be disallowed for another without creating a double standard that undermines democratic equity.

Democracy thrives in environments of tolerance, dialogue, and mutual respect. Political scientist Benjamin Barber, in “Strong Democracy,” highlights the importance of civic engagement based on deliberation rather than confrontation.

When politics devolves into bitterness, vendettas, and personal attacks, society suffers—not just the political actors involved. It is the people who pay the price. Kano has always been politically vibrant. It must now demonstrate political maturity—showing that disagreements can exist without descending into hostility, and that diverse opinions do not have to fracture communal harmony.

The governor’s anticipated decision—and the public debate surrounding it—presents a test for Kano’s democratic culture. Will we default to partisan outrage, or will we embrace a more reflective understanding of politics as a shared effort to improve human well-being? Democracy is more than a transient contest of power; it is a system of freedom, responsibility, and mutual tolerance. As the Nigerian scholar Claude Ake reminded us, democracy must be rooted in citizens’ everyday lives, not in elite posturing. Kano State must remain above the politics of bitterness and vengeance. Let us focus on inclusive development, respectful disagreement, and collective advancement. Let us celebrate democratic choice and reject divisions that weaken the bonds of community. In the end, history will not remember who switched party cards. It will remember who delivered good governance, served the people earnestly, and strengthened the bonds of unity in diversity. That is the standard Kano deserves—and that is the standard democracy demands.

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