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Tax Reform Debate: Is Dogara Positioning Himself for Tinubu’s Vice Presidency in 2027? 

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By Adnan Mukhtar

The complex relationship between President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima appears to be fraying, revealing underlying tensions within Nigeria’s presidency since their inauguration on May 29, 2023.

The recent disagreements over tax reform highlight this disconnect. The proposed tax reforms have ignited debates among influential stakeholders, including President Tinubu, the Northern Governors’ Forum, and the National Economic Council (NEC), chaired by Vice President Shettima.

President Tinubu is advocating for a derivation-based VAT model, which some Northern governors vehemently oppose, citing significant economic disparities among regions. They argue that such a reform could jeopardize less industrialized areas, preferring instead to maintain the current revenue-sharing system for greater equity.

In response to the controversy, the NEC, led by Shettima, recommended a withdrawal of the reform bills for more comprehensive consultations. However, President Tinubu remains determined to push ahead with legislative discussions, suggesting that modifications can be made later. This debate not only reflects a rift between promoting state financial autonomy and ensuring equitable development, but also underscores critical implications for governance, economic policies, and regional relations in Nigeria.

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While there are arguments in favor of the tax reform, including its potential benefits, I refrain from discussing them extensively. The Northern elites and leaders have, to a large extent, failed their constituents by neglecting to address pressing economic challenges such as job creation, entrepreneurial development, and diversification. Rather than lament the proposed reforms, shouldn’t we focus on alternatives that can propel the North toward self-sufficiency?

It is perplexing to see governors expressing concern that the new tax proposal could hinder their ability to pay workers’ salaries. What efforts are these leaders making to enhance Internally Generated Revenue (IGR), foster innovation, and attract trade and investment? It’s noteworthy that, in more developed regions, many of these governors would likely struggle to qualify for positions even as local government chairpersons or councilors.

Interestingly, while many Northern political leaders are voicing discontent toward the tax bill, a few notable figures, including erstwhile anti-Tinubu critics like Daniel Bwala and former House of Representatives Speaker Yakubu Dogara, are unexpectedly rallying in support of the reforms.

Dogara, perhaps keen to regain relevance, asserted that President Tinubu has already made significant contributions to the North, positing that no leader from the region in his lifetime has matched Tinubu’s achievements. He highlighted the establishment of the Ministry of Livestock as a pivotal opportunity for Northern economic growth. “This is not the time to label the president as anti-North,” Dogara implored, emphasizing that Tinubu’s accomplishments warrant recognition.

Recall that both Dogara and Bwala were prominent critics of Tinubu’s Muslim-Muslim ticket prior to the election. Their recent embrace of Tinubu and the reform agenda is nothing short of astonishing.

In politics, allegiances can shift surprisingly, but Dogara’s recent praise for Tinubu, after vocally opposing the latter’s candidacy based on religious affiliations, raises eyebrows. During a summit tagged ‘Meet the Church,’ he urged Christians not to waste their votes on APC’s Muslim-Muslim ticket, vehemently criticizing Tinubu for selecting Shettima as his running mate. Now, it seems he is vying for political relevance by aligning himself with the very administration he once condemned.

Many speculate that Dogara’s criticisms were motivated by his disappointment at not being chosen as Tinubu’s running mate. The change in his tone now appears to be a classic case of political maneuvering — a bid to secure a piece of the political pie, especially in light of the current hardships faced by Nigerians.

This shift sends a powerful message: the elite often prioritize personal interests under the guise of caring for the common man. Had Dogara been appointed as Tinubu’s campaign director instead of Simon Lalong, the narrative might have been vastly different.

Ultimately, one must wonder: Is Dogara’s newfound admiration for Tinubu a strategic move towards positioning himself as a prospective vice-presidential candidate in 2027? Could it lead to Shettima being sidelined, or are there other contenders from the North-East waiting in the wings?

Time will tell. The political landscape remains fluid, and we must continue to observe these developments closely.

Adnan is a Public Affairs Analyst and writes from Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.

Opinion

The Punch And Busy Body Business-Dr Ike Okogwu

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By Dr Ike Okogwu

The recent declaration of a State of Emergency in Rivers State has triggered diverse commentaries from a wide range of Nigerians.

Almost everyone hailed the presidential proclamation because of the visible threat to law and order in the state at the time the action was taken. Of course, there were a few naysayers who read political meanings into an otherwise sincere and prompt intervention.

One such negative interpretation is the position taken by the Editorial Board of The Punch newspaper. In one of its editorials published on the matter, the national daily claimed that the entire crisis was caused by what it described as “the needless meddlesomeness in the governance of the state by its former governor and Tinubu’s Federal Capital Territory Minister, Nyesom Wike….” It is unfortunate that this narrative and others like it have become commonplace in the media space.

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How did the Editorial Board of a reputable newspaper arrive at such a conclusion? Their claim that the Sole Administrator, Admiral Ibok Ete Ibas (rtd), has been acting a script purportedly written by the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, is also faulty and has no iota of truth.

They also faulted the sacking of all political appointees who served in Governor Siminalayi Fubara’s administration, insinuating that their replacements were drawn from Wike’s political camp. Again, nothing can be further from the truth.

Since his appointment as the Sole Administrator of Rivers State, Admiral Ibok Ete Ibas has been running the state with the abundant human resources available in the state and has not imported anybody from outside the state. Did the Editors of The Punch really expect him to run the administration with the politicians loyal to the suspended governor?

Do they not know that the crop of political appointees who served Fubara would have found it difficult to work with the Sole Administrator?

Certainly, they know the truth, but they have chosen to stoke the fire to generate more tensions in Rivers State.

Certain interests might have commissioned this editorial to cast aspersions on the Sole Administrator and raise doubts about his capacity to run the state.

It may also have been the handiwork of Wike’s political detractors, the man whom many politicians love to hate for no other reason than envy and jealousy.

We urge the Punch newspapers to seek a better mode of intervention in the political situation and not dwell on innuendos and unsubstantiated allegations against certain political actors in order to blackmail them.

Dr Ike Odogwu writes from PH. He is a Public Affairs Commentator

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Ganduje, CPC’s Defection Threat and APC’s Hegemony

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By Abba Anwar

In the last two days ears of Nigerians were filled with stories, rumors and baseless threat about a surreptitious move by the so-called juggernauts of the Congress of Progressive Change (CPC), to defect from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). Their major reason for the planless plan, is, CPC people are more or less excluded in President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration.

Some reports presented in the media, suggest that, “… emerging reports suggest that President Bola Tinubu’s camp is making desperate moves to prevent the defection of key members of the All Progressives Congress (APC) to the Social Democratic Party (SDP), particularly those from the Congress for Progressives Change (CPC).”

When one looks into all such reports very well, he/she will understand that, the entire complain stem from the shoulders of so-called CPC members.

To refer my reader back to memory lane, CPC was one of the political parties that were fused together to have, what we now know as APC. Other parties were, fraction of People’s Democratic Party (PDP), All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP), All Congress of Nigeria (ACN). And probably other smaller parties, ‘yan kanzagi.

Among all the parties that merged and birthed APC, it was only CPC that had bad leadership style. Where preventable crisis, inept leadership and directionless political strategy were the order within the rank and file of the party, then. The party (CPC) was only together because of the then goodwill and hope (dashed later) of Muhammadu Buhari’s political inclusion.

Such reports making round posit that, “… Al-Makura (former Governor of Nassarawa state and the only Governor CPC produced in Nigeria), is reportedly being offered a possible APC National Chairmanship in exchange for convincing Buhari to intervene and rally his loyalists (to remain in APC).” Such reports describe Al-Makura as a close political ally of the former President, Buhari.

Let me begin with asking the following questions for the so-called CPC advocates, what strength CPC still has within APC when die-hard Buhari loyalists were deliberately and comfortably rejected by Buhari administration when he ruled for eight years? What CPC did to people like the party’s gubernatorial flagbearer in 2011 in Kano, retired Brigadier General Lawan Jafaru Isah and his likes?

Please let us know what CPC did to all other gubernatorial and Deputy Governorship candidates during 2011, when Buhari assumed the mantle of leadership in eight years of his rule? What CPC did to the grassroot and absolutely die-hard Buhari loyalists, to a fault, like one Malam Usman Muhammad Gama from Kano?

When merging parties were collapsed into merger, CPC collapsed and melted down completely into the merger. All hitherto CPC structures were made left unnoticed even by Buhari administration. Where were the leading party (CPC) leaders in states when Buhari was President? They were all pushed back, by the administration of the then “Messiah.”

The pioneer National Chairman of CPC and the then Kano state Chairman of the party, Senator Rufa’i Sani Hanga and late Amadu Haruna Zago, defected to New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP), Kwankwasiyya political group, to be precise. Big shots like Hajiya Naja’atu Mohammed, who coined and popularized ANPP SAK (ANPP AT ALL STAGES), a slogan that gave ANPP many governors in Nigeria, when Buhari was the presidential candidate of the party, was nowhere close to Buhari. That was in 2003 general elections, when ANPP wrestled powers of some states from the “Almighty” PDP then.

What of people like Sule Yahaya Hamma, the then Director General of The Buhari Organization (TBO), the first and the foremost platform that oiled Buhari’s presence in Nigeria’s party politics? Where was he when Buhari was President for eight years? Nowhere!

At the level of CPC youth involvement, I still remember very energetic and vibrant youth, like Abubakar General in Kano. Buhari called him Civilian General. He was in the forefront in taking Buhari to places, for example, he singlehandedly, many years back when he took Buhari to the Old Campus of Bayero University, Kano, for students to hear from the horse’s mouth. But what was his involvement in Buhari’s government? After many years in government, Buhari appointed him to be a member of the Governing Board of National Human Rights Commission (NHRC).

Where were people like Sharif Nasdura Ashir when Buhari was in power for eight years? I knew him garnering support from students across all 19 Northern states, since 2003, Buhari’s first debut into politics. Where were people like Buhari, former Chairman of the Nigeria Union of Journalists (NUJ) in Katsina state when Buhari was President for eight years? This guy took the risk of going round to all the 36 states of the federation, in Buhari’s entourage, with his camera, covering all campaign tours, in 2003 elections, while at the same time, he was a civil servant under PDP government.

Where was the now Managing Director of News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) Ali M. Ali, when Buhari was President for eight years? This guy was deeply involved in media strategies for Buhari since from day one. It was only during Tinubu administration, that he got his current appointment, MD NAN. So what are talking about saboda Allah?

So when the so-called CPC members are crying for non-inclusion into Tinubu’s government, they are indeed crying foul. And he learned from Buhari himself. If they think Tinubu betrayed them, who betrayed them first and best? So what are they taking about?

When did people like Al-Makura become Buhari’s close ally in politics? What is the political weight of those being pictured within CPC circle as those planning to exit from APC? What political strategy do people think CPC has as a party? A party that wasted time and hid behind Buhari’s popularity then. A popularity that is trimmed down to more than 50 percent now.

It is even a political disaster for any administration or serious party of good management style, to align with CPC now, particularly in Northern Nigeria.

Northerners are still not happy that, in his eight years of rule, Buhari, couldn’t finish the express way from Kano to Kaduna to Abuja, from Kano to Maiduguri and he could not start and complete the dredging of River Niger. Not to talk of other critical areas like Ajaokuta Steel project and Mambila Power Plant. Apart from his economic policies that suffocated the downtrodden masses.

The greatest political problem President Tinubu is faced with, in my understanding of political development, is his inability to critically understand the equation of politics in Northern Nigeria. Agreed Tinubu is a great politician of substance, but part of his major weaknesses, is his hazy understanding of political intrigues up North.

I can pinpoint few individuals within APC that are heavier, more relevant and important than all CPC structures within the larger body of the APC merger. In Kano alone, not to talk of other strategic states and locations.

The Deputy Senate President, Barau I. Jibrin, Hon Alhassan Ado Doguwa, former House Majority Leader, House of Representatives, Hon Abubakar Bichi, Chairman House Committee on Appropriation, representating Bichi federal constituency, Hon Baffa Babba Dan Agundi, Director General, National Productivity Centre, among many others, that are within government circle.

Outside government circle when you talk of people like former Deputy Gubernatorial candidate for 2023 election, in Kano, His Excellency, Murtala Sule Garo, is enough, people much closer to grassroot /real voters. In his calculation he doesn’t even see the existence of CPC within APC.

What of people like Distinguished Senator who represented Kano Central, Muhammad Bello, who was one time Kano State Chairman of the then ruling ANPP. He was instrumental in many good things Shekarau administration did to Buhari during the first tenure of Malam Shekarau. Where was he during Buhari administration?

As the National Chairman of APC and Distinguished Barau are running helter skelter to woo other well rooted politicians in Kano, to APC, people like Distinguished Senator Abdurrahman Kawu Sumaila, Senator representating Kano South, Hon Kabiru Alasan Rurum, representing Rano/Bunkure/Kibiya federal constituency, Hon Ali Madakin Gini, representing Dala federal constituency and Hon Abdullahi Sani Rogo, representing Rogo/Karaye federal constituency, CPC’s presence and capacity in the merger, if any, are too weak to be visible.

Let me ask again, who are the real and committed CPC people across the country that were very visible in Buhari administration? I mean real Buhari people, who were with him even before the formation of that weakest political party, the CPC.

To me, Distinguished Senator Malam Ibrahim Shekarau’s political base, you either call it Shoorah or Shekariyya or Sardauniyya, or any other name, is much more organized, more focused, more serious, more disciplined, more engaging than CPC. No doubt about this.

Outside Kano, let me touch Tinubu’s National Security Adviser, Malam Nuhu Ribadu. This is a single person whose presence in Tinubu administration is much more important and relevant than all CPC structures put together, within APC, if there are.

Go to his constituency and see how he is impacting into the lives of his people. His political associates and boys, if you like, are having clear sight and focus under Tinubu administration. Unlike many CPC members, who were abandoned and frustrated when Buhari became President, 2015 to 2023.

To cap it all, Ganduje and Al-Makura are not mates in politics. Not at all! Those thinking Al-Makura can become National Chairman, they are doing that to purposely sink the party under a ditchy ocean filled with hungry sharks. At this point, APC needs people with deep sense of people’s political understanding, strategists, high level lobbyists, experienced politicians, enduring and detribalised leaders of substance. Ganduje encapsulates them all.

So all cards and the table are before President Tinubu. But I still maintain my observation, that, President Tinubu does not clearly understand how politics is played in Northern Nigeria. The survival of APC, is in his hand, to make or mar.

Anwar was Chief Press Secretary to the former Governor of Kano State, Dr Abdullahi Umar Ganduje CON and can be reached at fatimanbaba1@gmail.com
April 15, 2025.

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Opinion

Ganduje’s Visit of Shame, By Adnan Mukhtar

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The visit of Alhaji Atiku Abubakar to former President Muhammadu Buhari has given the All Progressives Congress a sleepless night.

At a time when the party should focus on how to better the life of Nigerians as a result of the hardship since the inauguration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu; the party has resorted to acting like an opposition.

It’s obviously clear that Atiku is setting a precedent for the party to follow. Even though he has told the world that his visit to the former President is a personal one, a post sallah visit as he told Nigerians on his Facebook Page; the former Vice President has reiterated his commitment to forming a formidable coalition that will defeat President Tinubu in 2027.

Shortly after Atiku’s visit, Ganduje rushed to the Kaduna residence of Muhammadu Buhari to visit him alongside some members of his National Working Committee.

When asked by journalists about his take on the Coalition; he replied, “We are not concerned about any coalition.”

If they are not concerned, then why the rush to visit Buhari after Atiku’s visit. It was the APC governors in the first place, as reported by some national dailies. The visit was to persuade Buhari to stop his people from joining the coalition.

Whatever, the upcoming coalition is for the good of this country, it is an effort to rescue the country in the hands of President Tinubu, who has inflicted hardship in all ramifications to Nigerians

There is kidnapping in the land, of recent bandits kidnapped a retired major General and former head of one of our critical national institutions NYSC, what confidence would it give our corps members.

The government is taking credit of his release, to this moment, the truth of the matter hasn’t prevailed. Was General Tsiga released after payment of ransome or rescued by security agencies?

Every well-meaning Nigerian should support the coalition, it’s is not about Atiku or El-rufai; it is about the future of Nigeria as a nation.

The APC as a party should call it’s son President Tinubu, to order so that he can do the needful to fix this country from the current mess, not following every footstep of Atiku.

Atiku is indeed a powerful opposition figure.

Atiku’s Visit to Binta Yar’adua

Shortly after his visit to former President Muhammadu Buhari, Atiku visited the wife of his lifetime mentor, General Shehu Musa Yaradua.

The visit symbolises Atiku’s loyalty to his mentor Shehu Yaradua even in death. I read in his autobiography how Shehu not only helped him but has later become his business partner. Shehu Yaradua was part of Intels, an investment where Atiku is a major shareholder.

It’s good to be loyal, Atiku is a loyalist of Shehu; a loyalty that should inspire the younger generation.

May our loyalty never be tasted!

Adnan is a university lecturer and a communication strategist

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