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2023 And The Toughtened Top Dog In Tinubu

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By Bala Ibrahim.

If there is anything that played prominent in the build up to this particular general election is the word sentiment. Yes, sentiment, which the dictionary describes as a held or expressed opinion, had hoodwinked many people, such that some of them lost their senses of good judgement, alongside the quality of thinking rightly or wisely. As the results of the Presidential election continue to trickle in, two lessons are revealing themselves relevantly, viz: the pleasure of taking the path of the truth and the pains that could follow fallacy or falsehood.

My friend, Ameenu Ayama had written a fantastic article, in fact, an award winning essay, captioned, THE PLACE OF NORTHERN CHRISTIANS IN NATIONAL & NORTHERN POLITICS IN THE POST-2023 ERA. Because of the failure of some people, particularly the northern Christians, to position themselves on the path of the truth, religious sentiment was played wrongly, and that misguided judgement is now coming with some unpalatable consequences. A portion of the consequences of the misguided judgement was captured by Ayama, thus:

“Northern Christians have shown themselves to be a people whom the larger Muslim population in the North would never trust with to act as their representative or with political power, even on a sub regional level. No national politician worth his salt such as Tinubu will ever trust them or their leadership again”.

Atiku Abubakar and his co-travellers in the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, thought they could reap from the misjudgement of our friends, the northern Christians, but because like them, the PDP played treacherous to the zoning arrangement, which would have equitably taken power to the south, they couldnt escape the wrath or anger of those who see their action as a betrayal of trust. In simple terms, they are now going through the pains that follow fallacy or falsehood.

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As I write this article, the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, is positioning itself to commence releasing the results of the election, but already, from the exit poll, the Presidential candidate of the All Progressive Congress, APC, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, has undoubtedly been portrayed as a tough dog. Although voting is still ongoing in some states, due to reported violence, Tinubu and his supporters have reasons to remain smiling, based on the opinions of those who voted.

Elections: Amnesty International tasks security agents to respect citizens’ rights

If we go by the provision of the electoral law, that the President of Nigeria is elected using a modified two-round system, and to be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive a plurality of the votes and over 25% of the vote in at least 24 of the 36 states, alongside the opinion poll of people after leaving their polling stations, including the expressed opinion of President Muhammadu Buhari, there is enough reason to believe that Nigerians have danced to the widely held opinion, that power should shift to the south.

The opinion of people that voted in Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti, Ondo, Oyo, Osun, Kwara, Kogi, Niger, Nasarawa, Kaduna, Kastina, Kebbi, Zamfara, Sokoto, Borno, Yobe, Gombe and Bauchi, are expressly in favour of power shift. With the exception of states like Adamawa and Taraba, where sentiment was used against common sense, the general mood is to respect the arrangement of power shift. The implication of course is that the tough dog in Tinubu has been toughened.

I don’t want to delve much on the issue of Kano, which is Nigeria’s richest reservoir of crude votes, and the rationale behind Kwankwaso’s stance, but as an APC apologist, I would say to him, THANK YOU MADUGU. Yes, a big thank you to Kwankwaso for depriving Atiku and the PDP, the luxury of playing political polo in Kano.

In 2019, Atiku Abubakar of the PDP, got 391,593 votes from Kano, which represents 21.1 per cent of the total votes cast in the state. He lost to Buhari, who scored nearly 1.5m votes, or 78.9 per cent of the total votes cast. With Kwankwaso, a son of the soil in the race now, Atiku’s show in Kano would surely be a show of shame. This would toughen the tough dog in Tinubu, who Buhari said, is poised to be the next President of Nigeria.

Kwankwaso and his supporters may not be in favour of power shift, and I am not challenging them on that, but depending on how Kwankwaso play his cards in the coming gubernatorial elections, he has the chance to make or mar his political future. If he plays rightly and wisely, by taking a borrow from the idiom, he who fights and runs away, lives to fight another day, his political future can be prosperous.

But should he miscalculate, like the northern Christians did, the consequences could be politically disastrous, particularly because, in Nigeria, there is no guarantee to permanent political loyalty. Also, the President in waiting is a politician with prescience, and one that is known to deliberately plan and calculate well, how to get what they wants, regardless of the status of who he wants it from. The political sagacity of Tinubu is such that he can make easy, political conversion.

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Abacha’s Death Fishy, Abdulsalami Reveals in Autobiography

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By Yusuf Danjuma Yunusa

A Former Head of State, Gen. Abdulsalami Abubakar (retd.), said the hours surrounding the death of Gen. Sani Abacha on June 8, 1998, left him with a lingering sense that “something was fishy.”

He disclosed that he and the late Chief of Army Staff, Lt-Gen. Ishaya Bamaiyi, were mysteriously locked inside a waiting room at the Presidential Villa for nearly an hour before being informed that the Head of State had died.

The revelations are contained in Chapter 19 of Abubakar’s 264-page, 27-chapter autobiography titled ‘Call of Duty,’ launched on Saturday at the Aso Rock Villa, Abuja.

The presentation was held to mark the former Head of State’s 84th birthday and was attended by President Bola Tinubu who was represented by Vice President Kashim Shettima as Special Guest of Honour.

Abubakar wrote that the chain of events began with a phone call on the morning of Monday, June 8, 1998, while he was waiting to be informed about his own impending retirement from the military after 35 years of service.

He wrote, “On Monday, 8 June, I was waiting for him concerning the assignment he said he had for me. I received a call very early in the morning that he was going to be retired. There was no other way to interpret that.

“I quietly prayed that he would not send me to Togo where there was going to be an ECOWAS summit. I was tired of going everywhere.

“I was effectively in detention, I didn’t want to travel to Togo. I told my wife I was not happy with the call because I was still hoping I wouldn’t have to travel to Togo.”

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Later that morning, he received another instruction to meet the Head of State.

“As I entered the bathroom, there was another call. I was told that the Head of State wanted to see me.

“Out of frustration, I asked if it was travelling to Togo and the caller replied that it was on a different issue.

“Because of the urgency, I didn’t wear my uniform. I wore a tracksuit and slippers and proceeded to the Presidential Villa. On getting to his residence, I was told he was not in the office,” he stated.

At the Villa, Abubakar said he could not make sense of events that followed as they were strange.

He narrated, “One of the guards informed me that anytime I went to see him, regardless of who was with him, I would still go in. After waiting for about half an hour, I wondered why he would be that early in the office.

“As I was climbing the stairs, (One of the guards informed me) that Abacha said I should stay in the waiting room. What struck me was that Abacha said I should stay in the waiting room.

“Major-General Ishaya Bamaiyi joined me shortly after. We waited for about an hour. I decided to go and see Abacha by any means because I could not understand why we should be kept that long.”

According to him, the door of the waiting room had been locked without the knowledge of the two men.

“I asked Bamaiyi if he was aware that we had been locked inside.

“Something kept telling me that something was wrong but I could not place a finger on it,” he stated.

He said when the door was eventually opened, it was not by an aide, but by the country’s most senior police officer.

“After some time, the door was opened and the Inspector-General of Police, Alhaji Ibrahim Coomassie, came in.

“He said: ‘Let’s go.’ We walked towards the office and I informed him that I was told Abacha was at the residence.

“It was at this stage that he informed me that Abacha was dead. I was shocked. I asked him what happened and he insisted we proceed first. He did not tell me anything else,” said the former Head of State.

Abubakar described arriving at Abacha’s residence and being confronted with the reality of the moment.

According to him, “When we got to the residence, I asked to see Abacha’s body. I was told it was inside. I entered the room and removed the covering.

“I was in shock at the sudden development. I prayed for him and left the room. Then lots of conversations began.”

He recalled the chaotic scene and conversations surrounding succession that unfolded around him as senior figures converged on the residence.

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CAN Declares Black Sunday, Mourns Insecurity Victims

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By Yusuf Danjuma Yunusa

The Christian Association of Nigeria on Sunday declared a nationwide Black Sunday in honour of victims of insecurity across the country, describing the situation as a national tragedy that has left countless families devastated by violence, terrorism, kidnapping and banditry.

In a message to Christians, CAN President, Archbishop Daniel Okoh, said the observance was aimed at mourning the men, women, children, clergy, farmers, students and entire communities whose lives had been affected by the worsening security situation in the country.

The association said, “Today, we are not only mourning; we are speaking with one voice. Our nation is bleeding, and the Church cannot remain silent while innocent lives are lost and families live in fear.”

According to CAN, the Black Sunday observance coincided with the celebration of Democracy Day, noting that security remained central to the success of Nigeria’s democratic journey.

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“Democracy is founded on the sanctity and dignity of human life, the rule of law, justice, and the protection of citizens. Therefore, there can be no more fitting way to honour the sacrifices that birthed our democracy than by recommitting ourselves to building a nation where every Nigerian can live, work, worship, and travel in safety,” the association stated.

The Christian body expressed solidarity with bereaved families, displaced persons, victims of attacks and others traumatised by insecurity, while praying for divine comfort, healing and justice.

Quoting Matthew 5:4, CAN said, “Blessed are those who mourn, for they shall be comforted,” adding that Christians across the country were united in prayer for those affected by the violence.

The association also urged governments at all levels to take urgent and sustained measures to address the security challenges confronting the nation.

“We call on the government on all levels to take urgent, decisive, and sustained measures to secure lives and property across our nation. The protection of citizens is a sacred responsibility entrusted to those in authority and must be treated with the utmost seriousness,” it said.

CAN further called on churches, Christian schools, hospitals, mission institutions and other faith-based organisations to strengthen security measures around their facilities and communities.

“Security awareness, preparedness for emergency situations, collaboration with local security networks, and vigilance at all times have become necessary responsibilities in the face of prevailing threats,” it stated.

The association urged Nigerians not to surrender to fear but to remain united in pursuit of peace, justice and national healing.

“Let this day deepen our compassion, strengthen our unity, and renew our commitment to peace, justice, and national healing. Let us continue to pray fervently for our nation, support affected families and communities, and refuse to surrender to fear,” CAN added.

Nigeria has continued to grapple with widespread insecurity, including terrorism, banditry, kidnapping and communal violence, resulting in thousands of deaths and displacement of communities across several states.

In response to the persistent attacks, the Christian Association of Nigeria declared a nationwide Black Sunday to mourn victims and draw attention to the country’s worsening security challenges.

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IMF Recommends New Taxes on Fuel Products, Telecom Services in Nigeria

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By Yusuf Danjuma Yunusa

The International Monetary Fund has recommended introducing taxes on fuel products and telecommunications services in Nigeria as part of broader measures to increase government revenue and create fiscal space for development spending and social interventions.

The recommendation was contained in the IMF’s 2026 Article IV Consultation report on Nigeria, where the Fund argued that additional tax measures would be needed over the medium term despite the recent overhaul of the country’s tax system.

“Further tax policy changes will likely be needed—such as increasing the VAT rate, extending VAT to fuel products, rationalising tax expenditures in particular VAT exemptions on extractive industries and some customs duties, and introducing telecom excises—to complement administrative gains,” the IMF said.

The Washington-based institution, however, cautioned that the timing of any new taxes must take into account Nigeria’s rising poverty levels and worsening food insecurity.

“The timing of reforms must consider the poverty and food insecurity situation and ensure that the cash transfer system is in place and funded,” the Fund added.

The recommendation is likely to trigger fresh debate across the country, given the sensitivity surrounding fuel prices and telecommunications costs.

A previous attempt by the Federal Government to introduce a five per cent excise duty on telecom services faced widespread opposition from operators, subscribers and consumer advocacy groups before it was eventually suspended and later scrapped.

Telecommunications companies had argued that the sector was already burdened by multiple taxes, rising energy costs, foreign exchange pressures and infrastructure challenges, warning that any additional levy would ultimately be passed on to consumers through higher call and data charges.

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Similarly, proposals linked to fuel taxation have generated opposition from labour unions and private sector groups amid concerns over rising living costs following the removal of petrol subsidies and increases in transport and food prices.

The IMF’s latest recommendation comes as it projects that Nigeria will need stronger revenue mobilisation efforts to sustain planned increases in public spending and support vulnerable households.

According to the report, revenue-enhancing tax policies could generate additional revenues equivalent to 3.9 per cent of Gross Domestic Product within three years of implementation. The Fund identified a two-percentage-point increase in the Value Added Tax rate as the single largest contributor, with an estimated revenue gain of 0.8 per cent of GDP.

It also projected that removing pioneer status incentives and revising free zone regulations would generate another 0.7 per cent of GDP, while reforms to capital gains taxation and adjustments to personal income tax bands, allowances and rates would each contribute 0.6 per cent of GDP.

The IMF further estimated that a top-up tax on multinationals and large firms could raise 0.5 per cent of GDP, while rationalising investment allowances would add another 0.4 per cent.

Notably, the category labelled “others”, which includes telecom excise duties and other measures such as a carbon tax on fuel, was projected to contribute an additional 0.4 per cent of GDP in revenue gains.

Beyond new tax measures, the Fund said Nigeria could generate even larger gains through stronger tax administration.

It projected that administrative reforms would yield an additional 3.1 per cent of GDP through improved compliance, enforcement and efforts to reduce informality in the economy.

According to the report, measures such as fiscalisation, electronic invoicing and cross-validation of tax deductions could generate 1.5 per cent of GDP, while expanded tax identification registration and consolidation of taxpayer databases could contribute another 1.6 per cent of GDP.

The IMF acknowledged that some of Nigeria’s recently enacted tax reforms would reduce government revenue in the short term because they were designed to support households and small businesses.

It estimated that revenue-reducing measures would lower revenues by 2.4 per cent of GDP, with expanded VAT input credits, additional zero-rated items and broader exemptions on basic consumption goods accounting for 1.7 percentage points.

Lower corporate income tax obligations for smaller firms would reduce revenues by 0.4 per cent of GDP, while lower personal income tax rates and expanded exemptions for low-income earners would account for another 0.3 percentage point reduction.

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