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Analysis:2023,Why Bola Tinubu May Not Win Kano

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2023 Presidential candidates

 

From our Political Desk

 

With the commitment of President Muhammad Buhari to conduct a free and fair election on 25th February this year ,and with Kano as one of the swing states,The APC presidential candidate may have a hard nut to crack before getting the required 25 percent.

There are many factors that will not favour Nigeria’s ruling party candidate in having an easy ride to the Presidency with Kano’s large chunk of votes being courted by many Presidential candidates.

The factors that may work against the APC candidate are as follows.

Kwankwaso factor

With former Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso in the presidential race for 2023 under the NNPP banner and with his cult following in Kano,millions of voters have decided to go for him on February 25 barring any last minute change.

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Kwankwaso is regarded as grassroot politician who call the ace in Kano grass root politics ,the youth in Kano and there parents are also after his candidature, in 2019 with unless with the inconclusive arrangement his anointed Governorship candidate was ahead of Governor Ganduje .

The Buhari Factor

Political analysts are of the belief that ,its the first time in 20 years when President Muhammad Buhari will not be in the ballot,since 2003 general elections President Muhammad Buhari has never lost Kano state .

Therefore apart from Kwankwaso who is expected to get a lion share of the state’s votes, other Presidential candidates including Asiwaju Bola Ahmad Tinubu,Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi have to work hard and lure the electorates before campaign closes on February 23 this year.

Ganduje Factor

Another odd that is expected to work against Bola Ahmad Tinubu’s Presidential Election in Kano is the lack of popularity of the state Governor Dr Abdullahi Umar Ganduje,since the return to Democracy in 1999 the Governor is not as popular as his predecessors like Engineer Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and Malam Ibrahim Shekarau,the duo of Shekarau and Kwankwaso pull much political weight than Governor Ganduje,therefore his political structure is not enough to make the APC Presidential candidate have an easy sail.

Undecided Voters

With President Muhammad Buhari preparing to hand over the baton of leadership to his successor on May 29,there are millions of unserious and undecided Voters in Kano,to those millions of Voters there political Ayatullah will not participate,therefore its a moment of vacation,there dream have been fulfilled of because President Buhari has held sway for 8 years.

Politics

Kabiru Rurum’s Vanishing Act: What’s Behind?

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By Adamu Aminu.

The sudden silence of Hon. Kabiru Alhassan Rurum, federal representative of Rano/Kibiya/Bunkure, has sparked intense speculation in Kano’s political circles. His absence from NNPP events and gatherings has raised eyebrows, fueling whispers of a rift within the party. As a prominent figure in Kano South’s political syndicate, alongside Senator Kawu Sumaila, Hon. Abdulmuminu Jibrin Kofa, and Hon. Sani Rogo, Rurum’s disappearance from the political scene is a curious phenomenon.

Reliable sources reveal that Rurum, along with his Kano South colleagues, played a crucial role in the NNPP’s gubernatorial victory, which saw Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf emerge as the winner. This marked a historic first for the Kwankwasiyya movement in Kano South.

However, following the victory, the Kano South political gladiators felt their demands were neglected, despite their significant contributions. They had requested the Secretary of the State Government position, which was denied, and later sought the speakership of the Kano State House of Assembly, which was also turned down.

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Even the speaker was picked without consulting Rurum, Kawu Sumaila, and other stakeholders in the zone.

Moreover, they have not been carried along in all the appointments made so far by the Governor, including the recent appointments of Local Government caretaker committees and their councillors.

The perceived disregard for their demands has reportedly led to Rurum’s disillusionment and withdrawal from active participation in party affairs.

Furthermore, the controversial disbandment of the five emirates created by former Governor Ganduje, despite Rurum’s earlier assurances from Governor Yusuf that they would remain untouched, has added fuel to the fire.

Rurum’s vanishing act has left many wondering if this is a tactical move or a sign of deeper issues within the party. As the proverb goes, “a tree does not move unless its roots are disturbed.” It appears that Rurum’s roots have been disturbed, and the consequences of this disturbance are yet to be fully understood.

In conclusion, Hon. Kabiru Alhassan Rurum’s sudden absence from Kano’s NNPP political scene has raised important questions about the party’s internal dynamics and the fate of its key players.

As the situation unfolds, one thing is certain – the roots of Rurum’s vanishing act will continue to be a subject of intense scrutiny and speculation in Kano’s political circles.

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Northern Politicians’ Eid Homage to Buhari: A Veiled Plot for 2027 Power Grab?-Sani

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Senator Shehu Sani

 

Shehu Sani

The recent visits by some prominent Northern politicians to Daura appears to be the Usual Eid homage,but looking deeper and beyond the facade,it’s surreptitiously a new attempt to build a strong northern alliance using ex President Buhari as a rallying point to challenge and evict President Tinubu’s Government in 2027.It’s a regrouping of Northern political forces for the next general election.A project that will eventually kiss the dust.

They want to resurrect Buhari’s political charm and mobilise the gullible.Thesame Buhari that led Nigeria for eight years and left the North Worst than he met it.Its too early to forget.By the time he left power,poverty and insecurity was at its peak than at anytime in Nigeria’s history.They had power and wasted it;what do they want to do with it again?.

A Southerner is in power just for one year.Its too early for the desperate and power hungry northern elite to start plotting.The south never did that to Buhari.Their intended action has the capacity of ruining the democratic process and wrecking the fragile unity of the country when the south is awakened to this reality.

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Their obsession with power is condemnable.Opposition to Tinubu from the point of policies,promises and programs of his administration is a democratic right of any Nigerian.People have the right to speak and criticize the Government.But attempts to whip up Northern sentiments to achieve their political ends is a dangerous political experiment and expedition at this material time.No serious southerner challenged Buhari for eight years;these power drunk Northern politicians are dragging the region to a new political journey through a land mine.

Buhari’s reign ensured nepotistical placement,installation and dominance of Northerners at strategic position of authority and power for eight years.Results had shown that they only enriched themselves,pillaged the economy of the country and pauperised our country.
The Daura homage of the disgruntled and the obsessed will fail.Our people in the North should reject this faces and their plots.They have nothing to offer.From the abandoned Baro Port,Ajaokuta,Lake Chad basin refiling and Mambilla hydro power,they failed.They came to power when the North was in the hands of terrorists and left it in the joint hands of terrorists and Bandits.The Northern Talakawa should reject their antics.

Shehu Sani is a former senator and a human right activist

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Staying Loyal: Key to Winning Elections in Nigeria-Reno Omokri

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Obasanjo ,Yaradua and Jonathan during the May 29 2007 handover to President Yaradua

Reno Omokri

If you want to win an election in Nigeria, you can’t jump from party to party. Nobody who has done that has ever won an election at the centre in Nigeria from our amalgamation by the British in 1914 to now. Nobody! You can do so at the regional and state level, especially where your region has ethnic homogeneity. But in a pluralistic federation, you are toast if you do that.

Only those who have remained loyal to their parties have ever won elections as Presidents or Prime Ministers in Nigeria. Your party can go into coalition and merger with another party, or it can change its name and your reputation will remain intact. But when you leave your party to join another party, the people also leave you.

No matter what happens within your party, stay there and resolve the situation. Assert yourself th amere. Go from battleground to common ground. If you cannot lead your party out of a crisis, you will not be able to convince non-tribal critical thinking voters that you can lead the country out of crisis.

Tafawa Balewa was a member of the Northern Peoples Congress. He never changed parties. Shagari was a member of the National Party of Nigeria, which was an offshoot of the Northern Peoples Congress. He never changed parties.

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Obasanjo, Yar’adua and Jonathan were members of the Peoples Democratic Party. They never changed parties.

Buhari was a member of the All Peoples Party, which later changed its name to the All Nigeria Peoples Party. The party eventually split, and Buhari went with the Congress for Progressive Change, which, in 2013, merged with other parties to form the All Progressives Congress.

Tinubu was a member of the Social Democratic Party, which was dissolved by Abacha in 1993. Following this, he helped found the Alliance for Democracy, which merged with other parties to form the Action Congress of Nigeria in 2006. The ACN merged with other parties to form the APC in 2013.

Nigerian Politicians should learn from history. The best predictor of the future is the past. Between now and 2027, any politician who leaves his party for another party, except where there is a merger, is just wasting his time and money if he contests for the Presidency.

A country struggling with political stability cannot afford a leader who also struggles with his own mental and political stability.

Sadly, in Nigeria, to leave your party in Presidential politics is to live in pity as a perennial candidate!

Reno Omokri is a former Adviser to President Jonathan

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