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Simple Analysis on Edo 2020 Gubernatorial Election.

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By Abubakar Sadiq Dauda

Edo state was carved out from the Old Bendel state in 1991 during the millitary administration of General Ibrahim Babangida.

The state is located in the south-south region of Nigeria and it is an oil-rich state.

Edo State comprises of three (3) senatorial district which constitute 18 local government councils.

The state gubernotorial election has been slated to hold on 19th September, 2020 and analyst are of the opinion that it will be a two horse race, between candidates of the PDP, which is the ruling party in the state and that of APC which happens to be the strongest opposition party in the state. While the PDP may boast of having the power of incumbency, the APC on the other hand may boast of having the ‘Federal Might’.

Below is a simple analysis on the possible outcome of the upcoming election, based on the three (3) senatorial zone

The Edo north district comprises of six (6) local govt council, namely; Etsako west, Etsako east, Etsako central, Owan east, Owan west and Akoko Edo local government areas.

The district has a voting capacity of 26% according to statistics released by INEC. It is widely believed that the zone is the stronghold of the former APC National Chairman, Comrade Adams Oshiomole, as a son of the soil. It is also pertinent to mention that, the running mate of the APC candidate, Mr. Gani Audu; as well as the current Deputy Governor and running mate to the PDP candidate, Comrade Philips Shuaibu are natives of the zone.

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Verdict: It is widely believed that the APC will record a large win over the PDP in the Edo north district, having won all the seats of the Federal and State legislative council in the 2016 general election.

The second senatorial district is the Edo central district (popularly known as the Esan district). Five local govt council constitute the district: Esan west, Esan central, Esan north-east, Esan south-east and Igueben. The district has a voting capacity of 16% and it is home to former PDP-BOT chairman, Late Tony Anenih. There are speculations that the current Governor has assured them of his support in their bid to succeed him if they support his second term ambition.

Verdict: It is clear PDP will have a clean sweep in that district due to the fact that PDP have never lost any seat in that zone since the return of democracy in 1999. However, the zone is the minority, thus APC may worry less.

The last senatorial district that forms the state is the Edo south district, also known as Benin district. It comprises of seven (7) local govt council and it has the majority voting capacity which is estimated to be 58%.

The southern zone is the power house of Edo politics and it is home to many active political gladiators such as; the present governor (Godwin Obaseki), two term former governor of the state (Lucky Igbenidion), APC governorship aspirant (Ize Iyamu), Omosode Igbenidion, Dennis Idahosa and Samson Osagie. The local govt council in this zone are; Oredo, Ikpoba Okha, Egor, Orhionmwon, Ovia North-East, Ovia South-West and Uhumwode.

Verdict: Though the PDP won the senate seat of the zone in 2016 election, the APC won two house of representives seat out of four, with PDP having the other two. It is not certain on who will get the blessing of the Edo south district more. The district will be the battleground for both the two top contenders, for the space at the Government House widely referred to as Osadebe Avenue.

Conclusion:
Pastor Ize Iyamu may win in the Edo North, Governor Obaseki may get the favour of the Edo Central, whoever dominates the Edo South district may get the mandate.

Sadiq is a political analyst and a social media activist, writes from Kano and Can be reached on assadiq.aldaud@gmail.com

Politics

A Baseless Outburst: Kwankwaso’s Statement Falls Flat

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The Northern Youths Merger Group APC has distanced itself from the recent statement made by Engineer Dr. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, the former Governor of Kano State and leader of the Kwankwasiyya movement, criticizing President Ahmad Bola Tinubu’s handling of the security situation in the country.

In a press release signed by the National Coordinator of the group, Hon. Musa Mujahid Zaitawa, the group expressed its disappointment and condemnation of Kwankwaso’s statement, describing it as “baseless” and “shameful”. Zaitawa pointed out that Kwankwaso has a history of opposing the government without justification, citing his previous criticisms of former President Goodluck Jonathan and his current stance against the APC government.

The group questioned Kwankwaso’s credibility, given his roles as a former Minister of Defence, Governor, and Senator, and wondered why he would make such statements at a time when the President is working tirelessly to address the security challenges facing the country. Zaitawa noted that Kwankwaso’s comments were not only unhelpful but also undermined the efforts of the government to ensure peace and stability in the country.

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The statement further highlighted the erosion of support for Kwankwaso among his former associates, including Senator Kawu Sumaila, members of the National Assembly, and other prominent individuals who have abandoned his camp.

The Northern Youths Merger Group APC urged Kwankwaso to desist from making statements that could be perceived as inciting or divisive, and instead, encouraged him to support the government’s efforts to address the country’s challenges. The group emphasized that the Tinubu administration is committed to ensuring security and development in the country and will not be deterred by baseless criticisms.
The Arewa Youths Mager group said they have uncovered a conspiracy by Kwankwaso to use the Kano State Government to politicize the security situation in the state by leveling baseless allegations against former Governor Abdullahi Umar Ganduje and Deputy Senate President Barau Jibrin that they were involved in it, to show that the government of Asiwaju Ahmad Tinubu failed to address the insecurity problem for people of Kano when it comes to the 2027 campaign to turn their backs on the APC.

NYMG warned Kwankwaso to refrain from making statements that could provoke the youth to do illegal things that could cause discord and instability among the people’s

The group also commended President Tinubu’s efforts to address the security situation in the country, including the appointment of a new Minister of Defence and the allocation of funds to support farmers in the North.

 

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Middle Belt or Bible Belt of Nigeria? By Aminu Ayama

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Let me begin with full disclosure: I am a Muslim and proudly Hausa-Fulani — a product of both tribes, raised with the blended cultures of me begin with full disclosure: I am a Muslim and proudly Hausa-Fulani — a product of both tribes, raised with the blended cultures North-West. If that alone irritates you, simply waka pass, because what follows will be blunt, factual, and completely unapologetic.

First, let us be clear: there is no such thing as a “Middle Belt region” in Nigeria. Not geographically, not politically, not constitutionally. What exists are six geo-political zones, with the North Central being just one of them.

The growing agitation for what I prefer to call the “Bible Belt”—often disguised as “Middle Belt”—is driven largely by neo-Christian maximalists, especially from Plateau State. And Plateau, let us not pretend, has earned an unfortunate reputation as one of the most hostile places for Muslims to live, transit, or thrive. Many documented incidents show entrenched Islamophobic violence, partisan state actions, and security responses that frequently tilt against Muslims whenever there are communal clashes.

But the proponents of this so-called Middle Belt never call it what it truly is: a Christian-only political sanctuary. Even within the North Central, Christians are not the majority. Only Benue and Plateau have overwhelming Christian populations. In Kogi, Niger, Kwara, and Nasarawa, Muslims form the majority—and each of those states is governed by Muslims.

So how does a minority hope to dominate the majority? How can the tail wag the dog?

This agenda is rooted in a deep-seated hostility toward Muslims, weaponised through disinformation, propaganda, and violence. And beyond the politics, the demands are not only unrealistic—they border on the absurd.

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The dream of a cross-regional Christian confederacy stretching across Nigeria would require forcefully merging Christian pockets in the North Central, North East, and North West—communities that share almost no borders—with one another. Over 90% of the Christian minority communities they list are not even geographically contiguous with Plateau or Benue. The only connected Christian-majority areas are Plateau, Benue, and parts of Southern Kaduna.

To create this so-called Bible Belt would require mass displacement of millions of indigenous Muslims living in these territories. It would produce a Bantu-like, Southern Sudan-type enclave in the heart of a predominantly Muslim region.

We know how South Sudan turned out. Years after global Christian activists—and even Hollywood celebrities like George Clooney—pushed the “Christian genocide” narrative to break it away from Sudan, the new country descended almost immediately into ethnic civil war among people who share the same faith. The activists have since moved on. The people remain with the suffering.

This is precisely the kind of tragedy Nigeria risks if it entertains such a divisive fantasy.

Creating a religious enclave in Northern Nigeria is possible only through civil war, mass ethnic cleansing, and forceful land seizure. No legislative process can achieve it; it would require bullets, not ballots.

Even more unrealistic is the attempt to annex Christian-minority areas of Southern Borno, Southern Yobe, Southern Gombe, Southern Adamawa, Southern Bauchi, and parts of Taraba into this imaginary Bible Belt. Except for Taraba, all these states are Muslim-majority and governed by Muslims.

The Bible Belt crusaders have even stretched their ambitions to the far North-West, claiming Christian communities like Zuru in Kebbi and Southern Kaduna, and naming random Christian minority pockets across Katsina, Zamfara, Jigawa, and Kano as part of their utopian region.

Let us be honest: how does this happen without displacing millions of Muslims?
How do you build a Christian-only belt across a region dominated by Muslims without violence?
How do you redraw boundaries across the North without war?

The truth is simple. This agenda mirrors the same formula used in the Middle East—forceful displacement, land acquisition, and demographic engineering. Nothing short of massive foreign-backed militarisation could make it remotely possible.

And even then, like South Sudan, such a creation would become a landlocked, unstable, ethnically fragmented territory—a permanent war zone.

Nigeria must never walk this path.

The so-called Middle Belt agitation is not about geography or justice. It is about identity politics and fear disguised as self-determination. It is a project built on emotion, not logic. On ethnic resentment, not fairness. On religious exceptionalism, not coexistence.

I welcome any factual challenge to the points made here. Let the arguments come—but let them be grounded in truth, not propaganda.

Aminu Ayama
@aaa

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Kano APC’s Crisis and Senator Barau’s Masterclass in Political Maturity

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Senator Barau

​By Ado Isa Jagaba

​The persistent turmoil within the Kano State Chapter of the All Progressives Congress (APC) has, once again, starkly exposed the deep-seated faultlines dividing the party. Yet, amidst this chaos, a quieter but far more instructive story is unfolding—the dignified restrain and profound political maturity demonstrated by the Deputy Senate President, Senator Barau I. Jibrin, CFR, in the face of sustained internal betrayal.

​In 2021, during the crucial APC State Congress, Senator Barau, then a serving Senator and Chairman of the powerful Senate Committee on Appropriations, was systematically denied any meaningful influence. He was refused even an ex-officio slot at the ward, local-government, and state levels. Furthermore, his known allies were barred from serving as supervisory councillors, political advisers, or special assistants, with any identified supporter being ruthlessly sidelined.

​However, instead of engaging in public retaliation or fueling the internal discord, he executed a masterclass in political focus. He kept his attention strictly on delivering concrete development projects, roads, boreholes, schools, and scholarships. Often extending these dividends of democracy far beyond his Kano North Senatorial constituency.

​A Strategy of Silent Service

​His silence in the face of humiliation was not weakness; it was a strategic choice. This political maturity allowed him to rise above the petty fray and continued his unwavering service to the people. When the same elements later attempted to block his Senatorial ticket, national party elders were compelled to intervene. Barau’s perseverance ultimately paid off. He not only overwhelmingly retained his Senate seat, but was subsequently elevated to the position of Deputy President of the Senate, the fifth highest political office in the country.

​Why Barau’s Conduct is the APC’s Current Lesson

​Barau’s political trajectory offers clear, actionable lessons for the crisis-ridden party.

​Service Over Spite

Despite being denied the gubernatorial ticket and facing attempts to sabotage his Senatorial nomination, the Senator put the party first. He extensively financed the Gawuna/Garo gubernatorial campaign in 2023, played a pivotal role in the APC sweeping five of the six House of Representatives seats in his zone, and generously funded crucial legal battles all the way to the Supreme Court.

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​Empowering the Grassroots

Barau has used his federal influence to empower party faithful, securing over 2,500 APC members position of Senior Legislative Aides, Special Adviser roles and influencing numerous federal appointments. This level of patronage and direct welfare for party members is widely regarded as unmatched in Kano’s recent political history. He has also donated hundreds of vehicles and motorcycles to party leadership at all levels.

​A Figure of Unification

The widespread grassroots call for Barau to run for Governor is not accidental. It is a direct recognition of his proven ability to bridge political divides, deliver tangible results, and provide the much-needed cohesion to a fractured party structure.

​The Desperation of the Cabal

​The same cabal that once exploited the gentlemanly nature of our former leader, Baba Ganduje, to humiliate Senator Barau now finds itself increasingly restless and confused. These elements, having benefited from the system, while neglecting the party’s welfare structure, constantly envy the goodwill and resources Senator Barau has directed towards the APC faithfuls.

​Today, they are desperately oiling fabricated and baseless publications aimed at tarnishing his image and sowing division, particularly by misrepresenting his independent political activities as a direct attack on Baba Ganduje’s personality. They are the same people who, having lost their source of leverage, now resort to hiding behind the former governor, seeking continuous protection to the detriment of the party’s survival as a viable opposition force in Kano.

​Unaware that the Senator is far ahead in strategy and political manoeuvring. Their paid “data boys” propagate falsehoods, trying to portray the powerful Senator as a battle-ready opponent of Ganduje’s political empire. However, their efforts fail daily. The resources they once enjoyed are no longer flowing. They cannot match the abundant political capital and widespread support at the disposal of the Deputy Senate President. A serious political Tsunami is being witnessed as many responsible and loyal party members desert their camp, which was built on a shaky foundation of self-interest rather than genuine party welfare.

​The Clear Lesson

​While critics may correctly argue that internal disagreements are inevitable and that the party should pursue reconciliation, others contend that Barau’s track record of quiet, effective service and broad support makes him the natural candidate to restore cohesion and secure future victories.
​Whatever the political outcome, the lesson for the Kano APC is clear: political maturity, as exemplified and typified by Senator, can transform humiliation into a platform for greater influence and power. The party must acknowledge that the same hands that built critical infrastructure and funded crucial legal battles are now being asked to lead the state.
​As many Kano APC stalwarts succinctly put it, “If you want a governor who can turn the tide of the state, look to the man who turned silence into service.”

Lajawa is a Political Analyst, from Warawa Local Government, Kano State
December 7, 2025
Email: adoisajagaban@gmail.com

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