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Simple Analysis on Edo 2020 Gubernatorial Election.

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By Abubakar Sadiq Dauda

Edo state was carved out from the Old Bendel state in 1991 during the millitary administration of General Ibrahim Babangida.

The state is located in the south-south region of Nigeria and it is an oil-rich state.

Edo State comprises of three (3) senatorial district which constitute 18 local government councils.

The state gubernotorial election has been slated to hold on 19th September, 2020 and analyst are of the opinion that it will be a two horse race, between candidates of the PDP, which is the ruling party in the state and that of APC which happens to be the strongest opposition party in the state. While the PDP may boast of having the power of incumbency, the APC on the other hand may boast of having the ‘Federal Might’.

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Below is a simple analysis on the possible outcome of the upcoming election, based on the three (3) senatorial zone

The Edo north district comprises of six (6) local govt council, namely; Etsako west, Etsako east, Etsako central, Owan east, Owan west and Akoko Edo local government areas.

The district has a voting capacity of 26% according to statistics released by INEC. It is widely believed that the zone is the stronghold of the former APC National Chairman, Comrade Adams Oshiomole, as a son of the soil. It is also pertinent to mention that, the running mate of the APC candidate, Mr. Gani Audu; as well as the current Deputy Governor and running mate to the PDP candidate, Comrade Philips Shuaibu are natives of the zone.

Verdict: It is widely believed that the APC will record a large win over the PDP in the Edo north district, having won all the seats of the Federal and State legislative council in the 2016 general election.

The second senatorial district is the Edo central district (popularly known as the Esan district). Five local govt council constitute the district: Esan west, Esan central, Esan north-east, Esan south-east and Igueben. The district has a voting capacity of 16% and it is home to former PDP-BOT chairman, Late Tony Anenih. There are speculations that the current Governor has assured them of his support in their bid to succeed him if they support his second term ambition.

Verdict: It is clear PDP will have a clean sweep in that district due to the fact that PDP have never lost any seat in that zone since the return of democracy in 1999. However, the zone is the minority, thus APC may worry less.

The last senatorial district that forms the state is the Edo south district, also known as Benin district. It comprises of seven (7) local govt council and it has the majority voting capacity which is estimated to be 58%.

The southern zone is the power house of Edo politics and it is home to many active political gladiators such as; the present governor (Godwin Obaseki), two term former governor of the state (Lucky Igbenidion), APC governorship aspirant (Ize Iyamu), Omosode Igbenidion, Dennis Idahosa and Samson Osagie. The local govt council in this zone are; Oredo, Ikpoba Okha, Egor, Orhionmwon, Ovia North-East, Ovia South-West and Uhumwode.

Verdict: Though the PDP won the senate seat of the zone in 2016 election, the APC won two house of representives seat out of four, with PDP having the other two. It is not certain on who will get the blessing of the Edo south district more. The district will be the battleground for both the two top contenders, for the space at the Government House widely referred to as Osadebe Avenue.

Conclusion:
Pastor Ize Iyamu may win in the Edo North, Governor Obaseki may get the favour of the Edo Central, whoever dominates the Edo South district may get the mandate.

Sadiq is a political analyst and a social media activist, writes from Kano and Can be reached on assadiq.aldaud@gmail.com

Politics

200,000 APC Members in Kano Dismiss Allegations Against Ministerial Nominee Yusuf Abdullah Atta as Baseless

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Over 200,000 members of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Kano State have dismissed allegations of incompetence against the ministerial nominee, retired Hon. Yusuf Abdullah Atta, as baseless. Some APC members in Kano believe the allegations stem from personal grudges held by a few individuals who are not legitimate members of the party.

In a statement, Mustapha Gidan Magani, the secretary of APC Kwaciri Ward, on behalf of the entire executive committee of APC Fagge Local Government Area, rejected the allegations of anti-party activities during the 2023 general election. The executives argued that those intending to submit a petition to the Senate, claiming to represent 50,000 APC members, have no legal standing to make such claims.

The APC executives from Fagge Local Government Area are prepared to counter the petition, asserting that it will have little impact on the confirmation of Atta as Minister of State for Housing and Urban Development. They expressed gratitude to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for nominating Atta, highlighting his administrative skills and dedication to serving humanity.

 

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PDP Youth Activist Calls for Suspension of Shekarau, Bello Hayatu from the party

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Salisu Usman Karaskabuli, a youth activist of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in Kano, has called for the immediate suspension of several high-ranking party members, including former governor Ibrahim Shekarau, Bello Hayatu Gwarzo, and Yahaya Bagobiri.

He accused them of sabotaging the party’s efforts in the state and hindering PDP’s progress in the region.

Addressing journalists in Kano, Salisu Karaskabuli alleged that Shekarau has engaged in anti-party activities during the 2023 governorship election.
“Despite being a PDP leader, the majority of his supporters backed the APC candidate,” Salisu Karaskabuli said.
He further claimed that Shekarau is already mobilizing his supporters to work for Senator Barau’s governorship ambitions in 2027, signaling ongoing disloyalty.

Salisu Karaskabuli also blamed the PDP National Vice Chairman for the Northwest Bello Hayatu Gwarzo for failing to unite the party across the region.
He noted that prominent PDP members, such as former governors Ibrahim Shema of Katsina and Ramalan Yero of Kaduna, had defected to other parties due to Gwarzo’s ineffective leadership.
Concerning the recent PDP congress in Kano, Usman expressed frustration, rejecting the outcomes of the ward, local government, and state congresses.
He accused the leadership of the party for partisan zoning and disqualifying candidates without valid reasons.

Further accusations were leveled at Yahaya Bagobiri, the chairman of PDP elders in Kano.
Salisu Usman claimed that Bagobiri had leaked sensitive party information to the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) leader Rabiu Kwankwaso.

Usman Karaskabuli called on the national leadership of the PDP to investigate the accused members and, if found guilty, take appropriate disciplinary action.

The accusations come at a time when the PDP in Kano and the wider Northwest is grappling with internal divisions, which some fear could weaken the party ahead of the 2027 general elections.

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APC Youth Activist Urges President Tinubu to Appoint Murtala Sule Garo as Minister

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Sadiq Ali Sango

 

Sadiq Ali Sango, a prominent youth activist of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Kano State, has called on President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to consider appointing Murtala Sule Garo as a minister in the forthcoming cabinet reshuffle.
Sango made this known in a statement released to journalists in Kano.

The Federal Government recently announced that President Tinubu would soon reshuffle his cabinet, sparking widespread speculation over potential new appointees.
Sango expressed optimism that Garo, a grassroots politician with a proven track record, would be a fitting choice for a ministerial position.

“Murtala Sule Garo is not only a politician but a true son of the soil, with immense contributions to the APC in Kano,” Sango stated.
“His service as the APC’s deputy gubernatorial candidate in the 2023 election and his unwavering commitment to the party despite not having the reins of government in Kano makes him the ideal candidate for Tinubu’s cabinet.”

Sango further highlighted Garo’s role in holding the party together during difficult times, describing him as the “supporting pillar” of the APC in Kano.
“He has carried the party on his shoulders, providing support to party leaders and members alike,” he added.

With the APC no longer in control of Kano State’s government, Garo’s influence at the grassroots level has been pivotal for the party’s continued strength in the region.
According to Sango, Garo’s appointment would reinforce the party’s position in Kano and contribute to the success of President Tinubu’s administration.

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The call for Murtala Sule Garo’s inclusion in the Federal Executive Council comes amid growing anticipation regarding the composition of the new cabinet and the need for strong political figures to represent Kano at the national level.

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