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How Tinubu Betrayed the Muslim North: A Diagnosis of Promises, Power, and Political Backstabbing

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6 months ago

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By Mohammed Bello Doka

We have been hearing funny questions in recent months, asked with a mix of sarcasm and denial: How exactly did Bola Tinubu betray the Muslim North? This article is a response to that question. Not emotion. Not sentiment. Not hatred. This is politics, reduced to its bare essentials: numbers, choices, consequences, and survival. If accusations are anything to go by, they are not inventions; they are reactions to observable facts. And facts, once assembled honestly, do not care about comfort.

The 2023 presidential election marked a deliberate rupture with Nigeria’s post-1999 conventions. Bola Tinubu chose a Muslim–Muslim ticket, fully aware of its implications. This was not accidental, nor was it imposed on him. It was defended vigorously across the North as a necessary sacrifice in the national interest. Muslim voters in the North were told, directly and indirectly, that competence mattered more than sentiment, that religion should not divide them, and that the ticket was a strategic gamble that would pay off in influence, inclusion, and protection. The Muslim North accepted this argument and delivered.

The numbers are not disputed. According to INEC’s final, state-by-state results, the North-West and North-East—Nigeria’s core Muslim-majority zones—produced close to ten million valid votes in the 2023 election. In Kano alone, a Muslim-majority stronghold, Tinubu secured over 517,000 votes, while Peter Obi managed barely 28,000. In Jigawa, Tinubu polled more than 421,000 votes; Obi did not reach 2,000. Katsina gave Tinubu about 482,000 votes to Obi’s roughly 6,000. Kebbi delivered nearly 250,000 votes for Tinubu; Zamfara close to 300,000. In Yobe and Borno, Tinubu again outpolled Obi by margins so wide they require no embellishment. When votes from Muslim-leaning North-Central states such as Niger, Nasarawa, Kwara, and Kogi are added, Tinubu’s support base in Muslim northern communities rises to between 3.8 and 4.9 million votes. That bloc alone formed a decisive pillar of his national victory.

Now compare this with what happened in Northern Christian-majority areas. In Plateau State, Peter Obi polled about 466,000 votes, while Tinubu secured roughly 307,000. In Benue, Obi’s 308,000 votes nearly matched Tinubu’s 310,000, despite Benue never having been a Labour Party stronghold. In the Federal Capital Territory, a demographically mixed but largely Christian-leaning territory, Obi recorded 281,717 votes against Tinubu’s 90,902—more than a three-to-one margin. In southern Taraba, voting patterns followed the same logic. These are not anecdotes; they are consistent results pointing to a clear pattern: Muslim northern communities voted overwhelmingly for Tinubu, while Christian northern communities aligned electorally with Christian-majority southern zones.

This pattern did not emerge by accident. For decades, Northern politics subsumed religious differences under a broader regional consensus. Christians and Muslims in the North often voted together, driven by shared interests in federal power, security, and economic leverage. In 2023, that consensus fractured. Christian-majority areas of the North no longer voted as part of a Northern bloc; they voted as part of a national Christian alignment. That fracture did not begin at the grassroots. It followed elite political decisions that elevated religious identity from a background factor into a central organising principle of national power.

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Having delivered the votes, the Muslim North expected returns. In politics, expectations are not moral demands; they are transactional realities. What followed instead was a growing sense of exclusion. Vice-President Kashim Shettima, presented as proof of northern inclusion, has exercised no visible institutional power commensurate with the region’s contribution. Unlike Atiku Abubakar, who as vice-president chaired the National Economic Council and drove privatisation policy, or Yemi Osinbajo, who chaired key reform committees and acted as president multiple times, Shettima has no defining portfolio. He does not control economic policy. He does not lead the national security architecture. He does not arbitrate party power. His presence is symbolic, not structural.

Appointments have reinforced this perception. Power in Abuja is not measured by the number of northerners in government; it is measured by where decision-making authority sits. Since May 2023, strategic economic and fiscal power has been perceived—rightly or wrongly, but persistently—to be concentrated within a narrow circle outside the Muslim North’s political reach. In Nigerian politics, sustained perception becomes reality. Regions do not rebel because they are ignored once; they react because they feel ignored consistently.

Insecurity has deepened this sense of betrayal. According to data from ACLED and corroborated by local security analysts, the North-West remains the epicentre of banditry and mass kidnapping. Thousands have been killed or displaced since Tinubu assumed office. Farmlands across Zamfara, Katsina, Kaduna, and Niger states remain unsafe, directly threatening food security. Yet there has been no decisive break from past security failures. No doctrine shift. No overwhelming show of force that signals a new era. Instead, communities are left to negotiate survival, often informally, while the federal response remains incremental and cautious.

The handling of negotiations with armed groups has compounded the anger. Several northern states continue to engage bandits through intermediaries, amnesty offers, or ransom-mediated releases. These practices predate Tinubu, but the absence of a clear federal prohibition or framework under his administration has consequences. In security studies, this creates moral hazard. Violence becomes a bargaining tool. The blunt question many northerners ask is unavoidable: what incentive does a young man have to farm or trade when picking up a gun attracts dialogue, attention, and concessions?

Supporters of the president often dismiss northern grievances as religious intolerance. That argument collapses under scrutiny. The same logic used to explain Obi’s landslide in the South-East and his strong showing in Lagos—identity mobilisation—explains voting behaviour in Northern Christian zones. Lagos itself exposes the hypocrisy. Tinubu lost Lagos, his political base, where he polled 572,606 votes against Obi’s 582,454. Ethnicity did not save him there. Identity politics did. If identity voting is a valid explanation in Lagos, it cannot be dismissed as hatred when the North responds politically to perceived exclusion.

Underlying these grievances is history. Nigeria’s constitution speaks of democratic choice, but Nigeria’s politics practises managed succession. Obasanjo’s role in installing Yar’Adua in 2007 is undisputed. The consolidation of APC power ahead of 2023 advantaged Tinubu decisively. Against this backdrop, fears in the North that incumbency could again be used to shape future political outcomes are not paranoia; they are historical inference.

This is why rumours of fragmentation or political marginalisation resonate so deeply in the North. The region is landlocked, security-fragile, and economically interconnected. Any national rupture—formal or informal—would hurt the North first and hardest. When trust erodes between a region and the centre, fear fills the vacuum. Silence from power does not reassure; it amplifies suspicion.

Beyond Islam and Christianity lies a more fundamental issue: survival as a political force. Divide the North internally, weaken its bargaining unity, and its influence diminishes without a single dramatic announcement. History shows that fragmented regions lose leverage quietly and permanently. Once cohesion is gone, recovery is generational.

This is not an emotional argument. It is a political diagnosis. Betrayal, in politics, describes unmet expectations after commitments are honoured. The Muslim North delivered votes in unprecedented numbers. It absorbed political risk. It defended an unconventional ticket. What it sees in return is limited influence, persistent insecurity, and a fracture in its internal cohesion.

The question, therefore, is no longer whether the accusation exists. It clearly does. The real question is whether it will be confronted honestly while there is still time to repair trust—or whether denial will harden grievance into something far more dangerous. Politics rewards foresight. It punishes complacency. The Muslim North is not asking for sympathy; it is demanding recognition of facts that are already on record.

Mohammed Bello Doka can be reached via bellodoka82@gmail.com

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2027: Loyalty Reloaded As Gov Yusuf Picks Deputy Garo As Running Mate

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7 days ago

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July 14, 2026

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By Abba Anwar

I chose to caption this piece “2027 Loyalty Reloaded…” bearing in mind what His Excellency Governor of Kano State, Abba Kabir Yusuf said, to show his absolute confidence in his Deputy His Excellency Murtala Sule Garo, as governance pays back for loyalty.

It was at the instance of all federal political appointees meeting with the governor at Governor’s Lodge, Asokoro, Abuja, when the Governor bluntly announced to the faces and hearing of all that, “I have no regrets for choosing Garo as my Deputy in the last few months, and he has proven to be the right choice so far. I want to confirm to you that I have every confidence in him.”

This puts a halt to all speculations before picking HE Garo as Deputy Governor that, his loyalty could be divided when appointed as the Deputy Governor after the resignation of the former Governor, His Excellency Aminu Abdussalam Gwarzo.

To zip the mouth and bad intention of some politicians and to let everyone who cares to listen that, in less than four months, Governor Yusuf believes in HE Garo’s total and absolute loyalty, he picks him again to become his running mate come 2027.

He disclosed this during the meeting as disclosed by Sunusi Bature Dawakin Tofa Director General Media and Publicity, in a press release issued, that “Kano State Governor, Alhaji Abba Kabir Yusuf, has officially announced the nomination of his Deputy, His Excellency Murtala Sule Galadima Garo, as his running mate for the 2027 governorship election.”

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The release discloses that, “He expressed satisfaction with the working relationship between them, noting that Garo had demonstrated competence, dedication, and a strong sense of responsibility in the discharge of his duties.” I now understand the main reason and wisdom behind Governor’s bold decision in sending his Deputy as his representative, in major events. Within and outside Kano.

If not because of this trust and confidence the Governor has in his Deputy he wouldn’t have sent the Deputy to stand for him, during the visit of the high-powered delegation from European Union Ambassadors, USA Independence Day held in US Embassy Abuja and the just concluded Northern Governors Security Summit, among many other equally important events. Only loyalty, from Deputy’s side and confidence from Governor’s side, give this golden opportunity.

Part of the testimony given by the Governor for his choice in HE Garo, as running mate for 2027 is for his “… outstanding loyalty, commitment, and unwavering passion for the development of Kano State since assuming office as Deputy Governor,” speaks volumes about Deputy’s place in both the heart of his principal, the Governor and the art of governance in the state. By now HE Garo understands most significantly and clearly that, loyalty pays. What pays the most, is trust in Allah’s overall decisions, as says repeatedly by the Deputy. All those close to him know what I’m saying exactly.

The release reiterated that, the Governor has all the backing and goodwill support for the Deputy, indicating the nadir of the confidence of the Governor in his Deputy. As the release reads, “The Governor also passed a vote of confidence on the Deputy Governor, describing him as a dependable partner whose contributions have strengthened the administration’s drive to deliver meaningful development across Kano State.”

As a responsible leader who cares about the the unity, strength and the survival of the party beyond election periods, he urged, “… party leaders, political appointees, and supporters to remain united and committed as the administration continues to consolidate on its achievements while preparing for the 2027 general elections.”

By whatever standard and measurement, the union between Governor Yusuf and his Deputy, Garo, started on sound footing with the full support, cooperation and honest engagement of the Governor. While the Deputy is paying back with true loyalty embedded with good substance.

This features stronger administration and focused leadership. The way HE Garo responds to party demands and governance, with the consent of his principal, the Governor, it becomes clearer that, it will be a finer, healthier and merrier 2027 and beyond.

Anwar writes from Kano
Tuesday, 14th July, 2026

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How Umar Haruna Doguwa Is Uniting Kano APC for Tinubu and Governor Abba to Succeed in 2027 Elections

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1 week ago

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July 12, 2026

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By Sadiq Ali Sango

As political activities gradually gather momentum ahead of the 2027 general elections, the importance of party unity cannot be overstated. Political parties that enter elections divided often struggle to achieve their objectives, regardless of the popularity of their candidates.

In Kano State, one of Nigeria’s most politically influential states, the Chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Umar Haruna Doguwa, appears to have made unity the cornerstone of his leadership.

Since assuming office as chairman of the Kano APC, Doguwa has devoted considerable energy to reconciling party members, strengthening internal structures and restoring confidence among stakeholders.

His leadership style has been characterised by consultation, inclusiveness and constant engagement with party leaders and grassroots members across the state.

One of the notable developments under his leadership has been the return of key political figures to the APC.

The decision of former Kano State Governor, Ibrahim Shekarau, and prominent politician Bello Hayatu Gwarzo to join the party has been widely interpreted by supporters as evidence of renewed confidence in the APC’s leadership and direction in Kano.

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Another important test of leadership came during the party’s primary elections. In many states, party primaries often end in prolonged disputes and defections.

In Kano, however, the APC leadership worked to minimise disagreements. Where misunderstandings arose, Doguwa reportedly prioritised dialogue and reconciliation, meeting with stakeholders and encouraging peaceful resolutions.

These efforts helped the party move forward with fewer internal divisions.

His commitment to party cohesion is perhaps most visible in his ongoing tour of Kano’s 44 local government areas. Rather than limiting his engagements to state-level meetings, he has chosen to visit local party structures, meeting with elders, women, youth groups and ward executives.

The objective is to strengthen relationships, address concerns, encourage unity and prepare the party’s grassroots machinery well ahead of the next elections.

Supporters believe this grassroots mobilisation is essential because Kano has historically played a decisive role in Nigeria’s electoral politics.

A united and well-organised party structure, they argue, will be better positioned to mobilise voters and conduct effective campaigns.

Doguwa’s political mission extends beyond managing the affairs of the APC. His ambition is to build a united platform capable of supporting President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf and all APC candidates in achieving success in the 2027 elections. This objective explains his emphasis on reconciliation, inclusion and grassroots engagement.

Doguwa believes that electoral success begins long before campaigns officially commence. It starts with building trust among party members, resolving differences early and ensuring that every stakeholder feels valued. His consultations across the state reflect that philosophy.

Politics is ultimately about organisation as much as popularity. Elections are won not only through campaign rallies but also through strong party structures, disciplined members and effective grassroots mobilisation.

As the countdown to the next general elections continues, sustaining internal cohesion may prove to be one of the APC’s greatest assets. If the current reconciliation efforts are maintained and the party continues to consolidate its support base, Kano APC could approach the 2027 elections with greater confidence and organisational strength than it has enjoyed in recent years.

Sadiq Ali Sango is an APC Youth Activist based in Kano

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Kano Secured: HE Garo Represents Gov Yusuf at High-Level Northern Security Summit

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1 week ago

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July 11, 2026

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By Abba Anwar

Kano State Deputy Governor, His Excellency Murtala Sule Garo represented his principal, His Excellency Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf, at the recently held Northern Nigeria Security Summit in Kaduna. An action commended by experts bearing in mind the legacy left by HE Garo in the promotion of peace and security when he was Commissioner for Local Governments and Chieftaincy Affairs. Among other reasons.

It is believe that, Governor Yusuf saw wisdom in sending his Deputy, for the simple reason that, he clearly understands how HE Garo was instrumental in the peace the state enjoyed before his coming to power in 2023. In the last administration.

At the state level, before the coming of this administration, the then administration gave Garo, then Commissioner, some portion of the responsibility of promoting peace and fighting insecurity across our 44 local government areas. Go and ask for further details from the then Chairmen of the LGs. And see productivity and commitment in place.

Zonal Security Summits were held across the three Senatorial Districts the, when local government councils played key role in collaboration with security agencies in managing the entire process. As Commissioner for local governments, Garo proved his mettle in the areas of peace building and standardization of security architecture and network.

Those who were involved in the process then, can better understand what this piece is saying. One cannot take away the credit of peace building and secured environment in the state, in the last administration. That became possible and sustainable due to the full cooperation of the security agencies and the proper teamwork of relevant stakeholders.

I was amazed when I spotted HE Garo in Kaduna in the midst of Northern states’ governors attending an all-important and all-inclusive Northern Nigeria Security Summit, which is still in the labor room trying to give birth to Northern Nigeria Security Trust Fund. Where each and every state is earmarked and expected to contribute One Billion Naira (N1b) monthly.

The Summit was under the leadership of the Chairman of the Northern Governors’ Forum, Governor of Gombe state, His Excellency Muhammad Yahaya Inuwa, came at the right time and with the right people, our able Governors. May Almighty Allah see you through.

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I saw wisdom in Governor Yusuf’s decision to send his Deputy HE Garo to represent him there. Apart from being another indication showcasing how confident the Governor is, in his Deputy, it also clearly shows that HE Yusuf knows and understands why teamwork with clear purpose means.

I can still remember vividly clear that in the last administration Garo’s unwavering support to peaceful Kano, through enhancement of community policing strategy and management, stemming from our local communities was visible and encouraging. Kudos to all the then local governments Chairmen, across all the 44 local governments in the state.

With this Security Trust Fund, if allowed to work, with the federal cooperation, the eluded peace in the North could start rebooting. Especially when political will is embedded in the entire process.

When Governor Inuwa highlighted that, “Across the North, in every state, the threats posed by banditry, terrorism, kidnapping, drug abuse and other forms of criminality have continued to undermine peaceful coexistence, disrupt livelihoods and weaken social cohesion, thereby slowing down the pace of development in our great region,” what readily came to my mind was, how Governor Yusuf’s administration is putting efforts on youth empowerment and fight against drug abuse.

To fight the nefarious activities of the underworld, Kano established Neighborhood Watch Guards few months back. They are dispatched to communities for enhancing our security system and strategy. Vices like house burglary, phone snatching, etc are downsized profoundly. Unlike before the coming on board of the Watch. This also helps in drastically changing the narrative on youth restiveness.

Few days to the Northern Nigeria Security Summit, Kano state Governor Yusuf announced the establishment of the High-Powered State Task Force on Fight Against Drug Abuse. What is so fascinating, is not the body, but the leadership and its structure. The leadership of the Task Force alone shows political will and genuine commitment from the part of the government.

In other words, Kano has been aligning with the philosophy behind the spirit of the just unveiled Northern Nigeria Security Summit, which gives birth to the Security Trust Fund.

The Governor’s representative in the person of HE Garo reveals much in the honest commitment of the state. Being one of the brains behind Kano’s feats in the area of peace and security, as obtained in the last administration. His contributions towards the peaceful Kano then, was spotted by many security operatives at the time. So sending him to represent his principal, the Governor, at the Northern Security Summit, was not by mere coincidence. It was assessed, deliberated upon, agreed and soundly designed.

The LOYAL DEPUTY (emphasis mine), as described by Governor Yusuf in recently held public event, believes in charting a new course for the security of Kano, Northern Nigeria and the country in general. In so many private discussions long before now, since his time as Commissioner in the last administration, I know how deeply concerned he has been in the security of the Northern Nigeria. So exposing him to this regional effort is commendable by all standard.

Anwar writes from Kano
Saturday, 11th July, 2026

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