Reno Omokri
If you want to win an election in Nigeria, you can’t jump from party to party. Nobody who has done that has ever won an election at the centre in Nigeria from our amalgamation by the British in 1914 to now. Nobody! You can do so at the regional and state level, especially where your region has ethnic homogeneity. But in a pluralistic federation, you are toast if you do that.
Only those who have remained loyal to their parties have ever won elections as Presidents or Prime Ministers in Nigeria. Your party can go into coalition and merger with another party, or it can change its name and your reputation will remain intact. But when you leave your party to join another party, the people also leave you.
No matter what happens within your party, stay there and resolve the situation. Assert yourself th amere. Go from battleground to common ground. If you cannot lead your party out of a crisis, you will not be able to convince non-tribal critical thinking voters that you can lead the country out of crisis.
Tafawa Balewa was a member of the Northern Peoples Congress. He never changed parties. Shagari was a member of the National Party of Nigeria, which was an offshoot of the Northern Peoples Congress. He never changed parties.
Obasanjo, Yar’adua and Jonathan were members of the Peoples Democratic Party. They never changed parties.
Buhari was a member of the All Peoples Party, which later changed its name to the All Nigeria Peoples Party. The party eventually split, and Buhari went with the Congress for Progressive Change, which, in 2013, merged with other parties to form the All Progressives Congress.
Tinubu was a member of the Social Democratic Party, which was dissolved by Abacha in 1993. Following this, he helped found the Alliance for Democracy, which merged with other parties to form the Action Congress of Nigeria in 2006. The ACN merged with other parties to form the APC in 2013.
Nigerian Politicians should learn from history. The best predictor of the future is the past. Between now and 2027, any politician who leaves his party for another party, except where there is a merger, is just wasting his time and money if he contests for the Presidency.
A country struggling with political stability cannot afford a leader who also struggles with his own mental and political stability.
Sadly, in Nigeria, to leave your party in Presidential politics is to live in pity as a perennial candidate!
Reno Omokri is a former Adviser to President Jonathan
