2023 Presidential Election Prediction
NORTHWEST
What’s happening at the gubernatorial level in Kano is crazy. I visited Kano end of last year and took a long drive through the city to my boss’s farm and realized how candidates from even unknown parties are hugely popular.
The presidential level is not less complicated in Kano because Kwankwaso, arguably, the most popular politician in the state is on the ballot. PDP also has a huge following (even the Igbo leaders of Kano have declared support for Atiku) to say nothing of APC which governs both at the national and state levels.
These three huge support bases make Kano a battleground. But Buhari’s loss of some support and the unpopular naira redesign might have weakened APC’s hold.
The case is more or less similar in Jigawa State.
I think all three candidates (Atiku, Tinubu and Kwankwaso) will get at least 25% in all the Northwestern states. Kwankwaso is likely to win Kano. Although some people may not want to waste their votes on him because they know that he’s not going to win in other states.
Kwankwaso is a great mobilizer. I learned that he came to Niger to campaign by road travelling through Lambata, Lapai, Agaie, Bida and so forth. Even as a Nigerlite, I don’t travel through that road because it’s in bad shape. If only he were the PDP candidate, those championing the “Northern Candidate” would have had an easier sale.
I know notable politicians from Kebbi and Sokoto states who are not happy with what Governor Bagudu and Sen Wamako have done.
Therefore, Kebbi and Sokoto may lose gubernatorial seats to PDP on account of APC’s messy handling of members and primaries; but Tinubu is likely to win all the seven states of Northwest except Kano. But it’s going to be a tough battle.
The only reason I’m going to mention Peter Obi here is that his running mate, Dr Datti, is from Northwest. Yet, that will mean very little. But Obi will get the votes of Southern Kaduna.
Atiku: 0/7
Obi: 0/7
Tinubu: 6/7
Kwankwaso: 1/7
Confidence of prediction: 55%
Full disclosure: I’m a member of the APC.
PS: This is the region about which I’m least confident of my predictionn.
