By Bala Ibrahim.
If there is anything that played prominent in the build up to this particular general election is the word sentiment. Yes, sentiment, which the dictionary describes as a held or expressed opinion, had hoodwinked many people, such that some of them lost their senses of good judgement, alongside the quality of thinking rightly or wisely. As the results of the Presidential election continue to trickle in, two lessons are revealing themselves relevantly, viz: the pleasure of taking the path of the truth and the pains that could follow fallacy or falsehood.
My friend, Ameenu Ayama had written a fantastic article, in fact, an award winning essay, captioned, THE PLACE OF NORTHERN CHRISTIANS IN NATIONAL & NORTHERN POLITICS IN THE POST-2023 ERA. Because of the failure of some people, particularly the northern Christians, to position themselves on the path of the truth, religious sentiment was played wrongly, and that misguided judgement is now coming with some unpalatable consequences. A portion of the consequences of the misguided judgement was captured by Ayama, thus:
“Northern Christians have shown themselves to be a people whom the larger Muslim population in the North would never trust with to act as their representative or with political power, even on a sub regional level. No national politician worth his salt such as Tinubu will ever trust them or their leadership again”.
Atiku Abubakar and his co-travellers in the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, thought they could reap from the misjudgement of our friends, the northern Christians, but because like them, the PDP played treacherous to the zoning arrangement, which would have equitably taken power to the south, they couldnt escape the wrath or anger of those who see their action as a betrayal of trust. In simple terms, they are now going through the pains that follow fallacy or falsehood.
As I write this article, the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, is positioning itself to commence releasing the results of the election, but already, from the exit poll, the Presidential candidate of the All Progressive Congress, APC, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, has undoubtedly been portrayed as a tough dog. Although voting is still ongoing in some states, due to reported violence, Tinubu and his supporters have reasons to remain smiling, based on the opinions of those who voted.
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If we go by the provision of the electoral law, that the President of Nigeria is elected using a modified two-round system, and to be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive a plurality of the votes and over 25% of the vote in at least 24 of the 36 states, alongside the opinion poll of people after leaving their polling stations, including the expressed opinion of President Muhammadu Buhari, there is enough reason to believe that Nigerians have danced to the widely held opinion, that power should shift to the south.
The opinion of people that voted in Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti, Ondo, Oyo, Osun, Kwara, Kogi, Niger, Nasarawa, Kaduna, Kastina, Kebbi, Zamfara, Sokoto, Borno, Yobe, Gombe and Bauchi, are expressly in favour of power shift. With the exception of states like Adamawa and Taraba, where sentiment was used against common sense, the general mood is to respect the arrangement of power shift. The implication of course is that the tough dog in Tinubu has been toughened.
I don’t want to delve much on the issue of Kano, which is Nigeria’s richest reservoir of crude votes, and the rationale behind Kwankwaso’s stance, but as an APC apologist, I would say to him, THANK YOU MADUGU. Yes, a big thank you to Kwankwaso for depriving Atiku and the PDP, the luxury of playing political polo in Kano.
In 2019, Atiku Abubakar of the PDP, got 391,593 votes from Kano, which represents 21.1 per cent of the total votes cast in the state. He lost to Buhari, who scored nearly 1.5m votes, or 78.9 per cent of the total votes cast. With Kwankwaso, a son of the soil in the race now, Atiku’s show in Kano would surely be a show of shame. This would toughen the tough dog in Tinubu, who Buhari said, is poised to be the next President of Nigeria.
Kwankwaso and his supporters may not be in favour of power shift, and I am not challenging them on that, but depending on how Kwankwaso play his cards in the coming gubernatorial elections, he has the chance to make or mar his political future. If he plays rightly and wisely, by taking a borrow from the idiom, he who fights and runs away, lives to fight another day, his political future can be prosperous.
But should he miscalculate, like the northern Christians did, the consequences could be politically disastrous, particularly because, in Nigeria, there is no guarantee to permanent political loyalty. Also, the President in waiting is a politician with prescience, and one that is known to deliberately plan and calculate well, how to get what they wants, regardless of the status of who he wants it from. The political sagacity of Tinubu is such that he can make easy, political conversion.
