Opinion

Between Sabotage and Scepticism: Why Nigeria’s Oil Dream Keeps Stalling

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Halima Aminu

<p><&excl;-- BEGIN THEIA POST SLIDER --><&sol;p>&NewLine;<&excl;-- WP QUADS Content Ad Plugin v&period; 3&period;0&period;4 -->&NewLine;<div class&equals;"quads-location quads-ad4" id&equals;"quads-ad4" style&equals;"float&colon;none&semi;margin&colon;0px&semi;">&NewLine;&NewLine;<&sol;div>&NewLine;&NewLine;<p>&nbsp&semi;<&sol;p><div class&equals;"zT2aE17I" style&equals;"clear&colon;both&semi;float&colon;left&semi;width&colon;100&percnt;&semi;margin&colon;0 0 20px 0&semi;"><script async src&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;pagead2&period;googlesyndication&period;com&sol;pagead&sol;js&sol;adsbygoogle&period;js"><&sol;script> &NewLine;<&excl;-- TV --> &NewLine;<ins class&equals;"adsbygoogle" &NewLine; style&equals;"display&colon;block" &NewLine; data-ad-client&equals;"ca-pub-4403533287178375" &NewLine; data-ad-slot&equals;"4399361195" &NewLine; data-ad-format&equals;"auto" &NewLine; data-full-width-responsive&equals;"true"><&sol;ins> &NewLine;<script> &NewLine; &lpar;adsbygoogle &equals; window&period;adsbygoogle &vert;&vert; &lbrack;&rsqb;&rpar;&period;push&lpar;&lbrace;&rcub;&rpar;&semi; &NewLine;<&sol;script><&sol;div>&NewLine;<p>By Halima Aminu<&sol;p><div class&equals;"Z9jUWm8i" style&equals;"clear&colon;both&semi;float&colon;left&semi;width&colon;100&percnt;&semi;margin&colon;0 0 20px 0&semi;"><script async src&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;pagead2&period;googlesyndication&period;com&sol;pagead&sol;js&sol;adsbygoogle&period;js"><&sol;script> &NewLine;<&excl;-- TV --> &NewLine;<ins class&equals;"adsbygoogle" &NewLine; style&equals;"display&colon;block" &NewLine; data-ad-client&equals;"ca-pub-4403533287178375" &NewLine; data-ad-slot&equals;"4399361195" &NewLine; data-ad-format&equals;"auto" &NewLine; data-full-width-responsive&equals;"true"><&sol;ins> &NewLine;<script> &NewLine; &lpar;adsbygoogle &equals; window&period;adsbygoogle &vert;&vert; &lbrack;&rsqb;&rpar;&period;push&lpar;&lbrace;&rcub;&rpar;&semi; &NewLine;<&sol;script><&sol;div>&NewLine;<p>Governments do not only govern&comma; they communicate governance&period; And in Nigeria&&num;8217&semi;s oil and gas sector&comma; the distance between what the government says it is doing and what its strategies are actually delivering has become one of the most consequential communication failures in the country&&num;8217&semi;s recent economic history&period; Evaluating the Nigerian government&&num;8217&semi;s strategies to increase oil and gas production is therefore not merely a matter of counting barrels&period; It is a matter of examining how those strategies are framed&comma; how credibly they are communicated to critical stakeholders&comma; and whether the outward narrative is supported by institutional reality on the ground&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>The government&&num;8217&semi;s dominant communication frame around oil and gas recovery has been one of triumphant reversal&period; Official figures show that national crude output&comma; which had collapsed to dangerously low levels around 960&comma;000 barrels per day in 2022 among the worst in Nigeria&&num;8217&semi;s recent production history has climbed back to an average of approximately 1&period;71 million barrels per day in 2025&comma; with peaks approaching 1&period;84 million barrels per day&period; As a communication strategy&comma; this frame is deliberately constructed to project momentum&comma; competence&comma; and institutional control three attributes any government managing a resource-dependent economy urgently needs its investors and citizens to associate with its leadership&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>The problem with this framing is not that the numbers are fabricated&period; The problem is that production recovery&comma; presented in isolation&comma; is a selective narrative&period; It tells the audience what improved without adequately explaining what remains structurally broken&period; Strategic communication theory draws a clear distinction between impression management projecting a preferred image and genuine credibility-building&comma; which demands alignment between message and demonstrable reality&period; Nigeria&&num;8217&semi;s government is currently far more invested in the former than the latter&comma; and sophisticated investors&comma; who are the primary audience for this messaging&comma; are professionally trained to detect that gap&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<&excl;-- WP QUADS Content Ad Plugin v&period; 3&period;0&period;4 -->&NewLine;<div class&equals;"quads-location quads-ad1" id&equals;"quads-ad1" style&equals;"float&colon;none&semi;margin&colon;0px&semi;">&NewLine;&NewLine;<&sol;div>&NewLine;<div class&equals;"cTm80li5" style&equals;"clear&colon;both&semi;float&colon;left&semi;width&colon;100&percnt;&semi;margin&colon;0 0 20px 0&semi;"><script async src&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;pagead2&period;googlesyndication&period;com&sol;pagead&sol;js&sol;adsbygoogle&period;js"><&sol;script> &NewLine;<ins class&equals;"adsbygoogle" &NewLine; style&equals;"display&colon;block&semi; text-align&colon;center&semi;" &NewLine; data-ad-layout&equals;"in-article" &NewLine; data-ad-format&equals;"fluid" &NewLine; data-ad-client&equals;"ca-pub-4403533287178375" &NewLine; data-ad-slot&equals;"6550225277"><&sol;ins> &NewLine;<script> &NewLine; &lpar;adsbygoogle &equals; window&period;adsbygoogle &vert;&vert; &lbrack;&rsqb;&rpar;&period;push&lpar;&lbrace;&rcub;&rpar;&semi; &NewLine;<&sol;script><&sol;div>&NewLine;<p>The Petroleum Industry Act of 2021 represents the most structurally significant legislative intervention in Nigeria&&num;8217&semi;s energy sector in decades&comma; and its potential is genuine&period; Its gas fiscal incentives have begun attracting new production-sharing arrangements with international partners&period; Its Host Community Development Trust framework had channelled substantial funding into hundreds of community projects across the Niger Delta by late 2025 a structural attempt to address the root communication breakdown between oil-producing communities and the Nigerian state&comma; rather than merely managing its symptoms&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<&excl;-- WP QUADS Content Ad Plugin v&period; 3&period;0&period;4 -->&NewLine;<div class&equals;"quads-location quads-ad4" id&equals;"quads-ad4" style&equals;"float&colon;none&semi;margin&colon;0px&semi;">&NewLine;&NewLine;<&sol;div>&NewLine;&NewLine;<p>Yet even here&comma; the government&&num;8217&semi;s communication strategy reveals a persistent weakness&period; Five years after the PIA&&num;8217&semi;s enactment&comma; the law has succeeded in restructuring institutional forms creating new regulatory bodies&comma; new oversight frameworks&comma; new corporate structures&period; What it has not yet succeeded in doing is restructuring institutional culture&period; Rules exist on paper that are not consistently enforced in practice&period; Transparency mechanisms are in place that are not routinely populated with verifiable data&period; Approval processes have been reformed structurally but remain administratively slow in execution&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Nigeria&&num;8217&semi;s oil is real&period; Its gas reserves&comma; among the largest in the world&comma; are real&period; Its production recovery&comma; partial and structurally fragile as it remains&comma; is real&period; What is not yet real not convincingly&comma; not sustainably is the institutional framework that would make those assets fully and rationally investable at the scale the country requires&period; And what is equally not yet real is a government communication strategy sophisticated enough to build the credibility that framework needs to be believed&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Until Nigeria&&num;8217&semi;s government understands that the long-term persuasiveness of its oil and gas strategy depends as much on how it communicates as on what it does and that impression management is not a substitute for institutional accountability the oil dream will continue to do what it has always done&colon; inspire at the announcement stage&comma; disappoint at the delivery stage&comma; and leave Nigeria perpetually situated between sabotage on the ground and scepticism in the boardrooms of the investors it cannot afford to keep losing&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Aminu Halima<br &sol;>&NewLine;Department of Development and Strategic Communication<br &sol;>&NewLine;200 Level<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p><&excl;-- END THEIA POST SLIDER -->&NewLine;<&excl;-- WP QUADS Content Ad Plugin v&period; 3&period;0&period;4 -->&NewLine;<div class&equals;"quads-location quads-ad5" id&equals;"quads-ad5" style&equals;"float&colon;none&semi;margin&colon;0px&semi;">&NewLine;&NewLine;<&sol;div>&NewLine;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<script async src&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;pagead2&period;googlesyndication&period;com&sol;pagead&sol;js&sol;adsbygoogle&period;js"><&sol;script> &NewLine;<ins class&equals;"adsbygoogle" &NewLine; style&equals;"display&colon;block" &NewLine; data-ad-format&equals;"autorelaxed" &NewLine; data-ad-client&equals;"ca-pub-4403533287178375" &NewLine; data-ad-slot&equals;"1004305389"><&sol;ins> &NewLine;<script> &NewLine; &lpar;adsbygoogle &equals; window&period;adsbygoogle &vert;&vert; &lbrack;&rsqb;&rpar;&period;push&lpar;&lbrace;&rcub;&rpar;&semi; &NewLine;<&sol;script>&NewLine;<&excl;-- WP QUADS Content Ad Plugin v&period; 3&period;0&period;4 -->&NewLine;<div class&equals;"quads-location quads-ad3" id&equals;"quads-ad3" style&equals;"float&colon;none&semi;margin&colon;0px&semi;">&NewLine;&NewLine;<&sol;div>&NewLine;&NewLine;

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