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<p>By Yusuf Danjuma Yunusa</p><div class="WxDVC82w" style="clear:both;float:left;width:100%;margin:0 0 20px 0;"><script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js"></script>

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<p>Amidst growing public discontent over persistent economic hardship and the Federal Government’s continued reliance on borrowing, former Central Bank Governor and current Emir of Kano, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, recently questioned the logic behind President Bola Tinubu’s borrowing spree despite the removal of the long-criticised fuel subsidy.</p>
<p>In an exclusive interview with our correspondent, a prominent economist and financial analyst at a reputable establishment, AbdulWahab Olalekan, dissected the paradox, arguing that the administration’s promises to “stop the hemorrhaging” have yet to materialise because the wound has only been relocated.</p>
<p>When asked whether this economic dislocation is driven by global forces or local mismanagement, Olalekan did not mince words. He attributed the severity of the current hardship primarily to “local structural deficiencies and poor policy sequencing”—specifically the twin shocks of subsidy removal and foreign exchange (FX) liberalisation.</p><div class="9ONQtIlK" style="clear:both;float:left;width:100%;margin:0 0 20px 0;"><script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js"></script>

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<p>“The relocation of this hardship is primarily the result of local structural deficiencies and policy sequencing (FX liberalisation shock following subsidy removal), though it has been heavily compounded by global economic headwinds,” Olalekan said.</p>
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<p>He stressed that most economists agree the removal of the subsidy was a long-overdue necessity. However, the problem, he explained, lies in the “blunt execution of the transition.” He pointed to two critical domestic failures: the absence of effective social safety net programmes to cushion the blow for ordinary Nigerians, and the country’s “huge debt servicing blackhole” which has swallowed much of the revenue that should have trickled down to the populace.</p>
<p>“The severity of the current hardship is less about the removal of the subsidy itself… and more about the underlying fragility of the Nigerian economy and the blunt execution of the transition. Notably, failure to provide effective social safety net programmes to cushion impact and the fact that the country’s huge debt servicing blackhole sucked some of the subsidy revenue that should typically have trickled down to the average Nigerian,” he explained.</p>
<p>But while local dynamics set the stage, the economist acknowledged that global macroeconomic forces have acted as a devastating multiplier. He noted that the current high global interest rate environment has forced emerging markets like Nigeria to borrow at an expensive premium, further worsening the fiscal picture. Additionally, sticky global inflation has directly fed into Nigeria’s import-dependent economy, accelerating imported inflation.</p>
<p>“The high global interest rate environment meant that countries in the emerging and frontier markets like Nigeria had to borrow at an expensive premium further exacerbating our fiscal picture while the stickiness of global inflation meant increased imported inflation since we are largely an import-dependent nation,” Olalekan stated.</p>
<p>He, however, offered a sliver of relief, observing that the inflation trajectory would have been even worse were it not for the operationalisation of the Dangote Refinery and certain reforms introduced by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).</p>
<p>“Thanks to the Dangote Refinery and some of the CBN reforms, the inflation situation could have been worse,” he concluded.</p>
<p>As the Tinubu administration continues to defend its borrowing plan in the face of mounting scrutiny, Olalekan’s diagnosis suggests that without fixing domestic structural flaws and providing tangible relief, removing the subsidy alone will remain a repositioning of pain rather than a cure.</p>
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