By Bala Ibrahim.
America undoubtedly enjoys a position of unparalleled military strength and great economic and political influence in the world. By virtue of such position, and in keeping with it’s principles of creating a balance of power, that promotes human freedom, where all nations and all societies can choose for themselves, the rewards and challenges of political and economic liberty, America is seen as a sustainable model for the global success of democracy and free enterprise. All over the world, people want to be able to speak freely, choose who will govern them freely, worship freely as they please, have access to free education and enjoy the freedom of shelter, among other benefits.
These values of freedom are applicable for every person, in every society and every country of the world, including Nigeria, the giant of Africa and the biggest black country of the world. While America is taking the defence of itself as a fundamental commitment, it also says that, it shares a commitment to protecting the basic human rights and guaranteeing political and economic freedom of other friendly nations.
Insurgency:The Silence And Smokescreen Behind The Security Successes
America says and I quote, “Today, in the United States, we do not use our strength to press for unilateral advantage. We seek instead to see that the world is safe, people will be able to make their own lives better. We will defend the peace by fighting terrorists and tyrants. We will preserve the peace by building good relations among the great powers. We will extend the peace by encouraging free and open societies on every continent”.
That is a motivational ambition that should placate every lover of tranquillity. But in the light of certain happenings, especially with regards certain predictions, questions are being asked about the sincerity of America to the comprehensive commitment to the full fulfilment of that ambition.
Things have happened in many countries of the world that have friendly ties with America, and when America makes a prediction, many times, the consequences come out in the reverse. And Nigeria is among the countries where America failed in such predictions.
In 2010, preparatory to the 2011 elections, John Campbell, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and former Ambassador to Nigeria, predicted the collapse of Nigeria, in his book, titled, Nigeria: Dancing on the Brink.
“Governance, let alone democracy, faces grievous, structural challenges in Nigeria, Popular alienation and a fragmented establishment have contributed to Nigeria becoming one of the most religious and, at the same time, one of the most violent countries in the world. Ubiquitous patronage and corrupt behaviour, fuelled by oil money is a root cause of Nigeria’s political and economic sclerosis. The federal government has failed to provide basic security for its citizens and has lost its monopoly on violence, two basic attributes of a sovereign state.”-Campbell
Although Campbell believed that Nigeria is an important player in both global politics and in the American foreign relations in Africa, he predicted failure in the 2011 general elections, because it had, according to him, the potential of being both divisive on one hand and decisive for the future of the country on the other hand. More so, he said, because the players in the sham elections of 2003 and 2007 are still the main actors in the political space of Nigeria.
In the end, Nigeria solidly survived, surely to the disappointment of America’s prediction, which mostly come when it wants a regime change in a foreign country.
Since last week, when the same America, followed by some of it’s western allies, issued a security alert of an elevated risk of terror attacks in Nigeria, specifically in Abuja and some major cities of the north, the situation has not remained the same because of palpable fear. The alert, which was issued by the American Embassy in Abuja said, targets might include, but are not limited to, government buildings, places of worship, schools, markets, shopping malls, hotels, bars, restaurants, athletic gatherings, transport terminals, law enforcement facilities, and international organisations.
As a consequence, the U.S. Embassy said it will offer reduced services until further notice, advising it’s nationals to avoid all non-essential travel or movements.
Given what happened in Nigeria in 2010, at a time similar to now, when the country was going into general elections, and how America’s prediction came out in the reverse, people now tend to be very circumspect, whenever the US issues security alerts.
Investigations into what happened in Kenya in 2020, have also accused America of a culture of complacency among its forces. A similar situation played out in Syria, where, the US tried to use military force and financial pressure to compel Syrian President, Bashar al-Assad, to accept major constitutional reforms and a Kurdish autonomous zone, but in the end, under its supervision, Syria degenerated to a semi-state, contrary to the American prediction.
If we add what happened in Afganistan, where it lost out, after spending nearly $2.5 trillion and fighting for nearly 20 years, we can say sometimes, America’s prediction only succeed in humiliating the country.
One contradictory conclusion to the inconsistent security concerns of America abroad is what happened to speaker Pelosi’s husband in the couple’s San Francisco home yesterday. While America was alerting the world about insecurity in Nigeria, an embarrassing security breach was unfolding in the house of the speaker, who in hierarchy, is the second in the United States presidential line of succession, after the vice president and ahead of the president pro tempore of the Senate. An intruder entered and attacked her husband with a hammer, shouting, where is Nancy Pelosi?
America always uses bad governance and poor government’s economic policies as reasons for the insurgencies and insurrections abroad, but the ease with which it is visited by humiliation and such embarrassing violence at home, call for caution and a review of policy, because they seem to be coming with constant contradictions.
