By Bala Ibrahim.
Historically, Kano was created in 1967 from the former northern region. Geographically, it is located between Katsina state to the northwest, Jigawa state to the northeast, Bauchi state to the southeast, and Kaduna state to the southwest. According to all the national censuses, Kano State is the largest state by population in Nigeria. Also, according to the voter register presented by the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, Kano has the second largest number of registered voters, with close to 6 million people on the roll.
And precisely that is the crucial crux of this article- the political position of Kano in Nigeria.
In other words, is Kano a kingmaker by virtue of its population strength? If yes, is it exploiting that political strength, or simply surrendering to the position of a knock on the head?
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History has shown that Kano has never produced a democratically elected President. It has never gotten the position of an elected Vice President, or a Senate President. The highest position held by any son of the soil of Kano is that of the Speaker, House of Representative. Yet, it is Nigeria’s reservoir of votes.
Pursuant to the ongoing scramble to grab the access key to the highest seat of power in Nigeria, and my deliberate silence on the issue, a friend sent a message to me, and I quote:
“Salam Sir, have been eagerly waiting to read your take on the endless list of APC presidential aspirants, despite the huge prices of N100m. Perhaps with your views on the permutations and the chances of each candidate, plus clues to decoding Buhari’s kept to chest preferred successor!”
Initially, my intention was to stay mute, until things get to a particular turning point, or a decisive time when the need would necessary arise for the search of a wild card. That is the time when any change in situation, especially the change that would bring big beneficial results to the horse that is coasting to victory comes. At that time, all attention would shift to Kano, the state that always settles the contest.
Yes, with close to 6 million registered voters, and a high level of political consciousness, Kano is simply Nigeria’s political goal-getter.
Consistently, and continuously, Kano has been the decider on who emerges the political President of Nigeria. And it does so despite the fact that the system has never given any of its sons or daughters the chance to stand as a candidate in any of the big parties, since 1999.
The closest Kano got on the road to the Villa in Abuja was in 1993, when late Bashir Tofa was made the National Republican Convention, NRC, candidate, in the annulled June 12 presidential election that was organised by the military government of General Ibrahim Babangida.
President Muhammadu Buhari, who said he would not disclose his preferred successor for fear of the successor being killed, received nearly 90 percent of Kano state’s vote in 2015, when he got a 1.7 million vote edge that accounted for more than half of his final margin of victory over the then incumbent president Goodluck Ebele Jonathan.
Again in 2019, PMB won his re-election bid by defeating his closest rival Atiku Abubakar, the former Nigeria’s Vice President that was bitten by over 3 million votes, courtesy of the 1.4 million votes given to him by the combined contributions of the 44 local government areas of Kano State.
While my friend’s concern centres on the endless list of APC presidential aspirants, despite the huge prices placed on the Expression of Interest and Nomination forms, my worry is on why no son of Kano is amongst those on the long list, despite the population strength of the state.
Is the kingmaker surrendering to the position of a knock on the head?
Reports have it that the ruling APC has raked in the sum of N1.23 billion from the sale of Expression of Interest and Nomination forms to 17 Presidential aspirants. As of last week, it was gathered that 17 Presidential aspirants had already paid N100 million each for the forms. This is good, even though EFCC is threatening to investigate the sources of such humongous nest egg.
From reports, the list of the presidential aspirants that have picked their forms include, the Minister of State for Education, Emeka Nwajiuba, Jigawa state Governor, Abubakar Badaru, Ebonyi State Governor, Dave Umahi; his Kogi State counterpart, Yahaya Bello; the National Leader of the party, Senator Bola Tinubu and Senator Rochas Okorocha. No single name from Kano.
The question begging for answer is, is the kingmaker surrendering to the position of a knock on the head?
Economic scientists may see population density as a problem that could put pressure on the economy, especially as it influences land allocation, food, infrastructure, and health/human services. But political scientists may have a reversed view.
To them, population density is an advantage, because in democracies, office holders emerge through voting, where the winner is determined by the highest votes.
Every serious aspirant is scrambling to gain the attention and approval of the Kano voters. But while Badaru from neighbouring Kano is keen to go into the contest, no one from amongst the nearly 20 million people in Kano state, of which close to 6 million are registered voters, has shown interest in leading Nigeria.
Is the kingmaker surrendering to the position of a knock on the head?
