By Abubakar Sadiq Dauda
Edo state was carved out from the Old Bendel state in 1991 during the millitary administration of General Ibrahim Babangida.
The state is located in the south-south region of Nigeria and it is an oil-rich state.
Edo State comprises of three (3) senatorial district which constitute 18 local government councils.
The state gubernotorial election has been slated to hold on 19th September, 2020 and analyst are of the opinion that it will be a two horse race, between candidates of the PDP, which is the ruling party in the state and that of APC which happens to be the strongest opposition party in the state. While the PDP may boast of having the power of incumbency, the APC on the other hand may boast of having the ‘Federal Might’.
Below is a simple analysis on the possible outcome of the upcoming election, based on the three (3) senatorial zone
The Edo north district comprises of six (6) local govt council, namely; Etsako west, Etsako east, Etsako central, Owan east, Owan west and Akoko Edo local government areas.
The district has a voting capacity of 26% according to statistics released by INEC. It is widely believed that the zone is the stronghold of the former APC National Chairman, Comrade Adams Oshiomole, as a son of the soil. It is also pertinent to mention that, the running mate of the APC candidate, Mr. Gani Audu; as well as the current Deputy Governor and running mate to the PDP candidate, Comrade Philips Shuaibu are natives of the zone.
Verdict: It is widely believed that the APC will record a large win over the PDP in the Edo north district, having won all the seats of the Federal and State legislative council in the 2016 general election.
The second senatorial district is the Edo central district (popularly known as the Esan district). Five local govt council constitute the district: Esan west, Esan central, Esan north-east, Esan south-east and Igueben. The district has a voting capacity of 16% and it is home to former PDP-BOT chairman, Late Tony Anenih. There are speculations that the current Governor has assured them of his support in their bid to succeed him if they support his second term ambition.
Verdict: It is clear PDP will have a clean sweep in that district due to the fact that PDP have never lost any seat in that zone since the return of democracy in 1999. However, the zone is the minority, thus APC may worry less.
The last senatorial district that forms the state is the Edo south district, also known as Benin district. It comprises of seven (7) local govt council and it has the majority voting capacity which is estimated to be 58%.
The southern zone is the power house of Edo politics and it is home to many active political gladiators such as; the present governor (Godwin Obaseki), two term former governor of the state (Lucky Igbenidion), APC governorship aspirant (Ize Iyamu), Omosode Igbenidion, Dennis Idahosa and Samson Osagie. The local govt council in this zone are; Oredo, Ikpoba Okha, Egor, Orhionmwon, Ovia North-East, Ovia South-West and Uhumwode.
Verdict: Though the PDP won the senate seat of the zone in 2016 election, the APC won two house of representives seat out of four, with PDP having the other two. It is not certain on who will get the blessing of the Edo south district more. The district will be the battleground for both the two top contenders, for the space at the Government House widely referred to as Osadebe Avenue.
Conclusion:
Pastor Ize Iyamu may win in the Edo North, Governor Obaseki may get the favour of the Edo Central, whoever dominates the Edo South district may get the mandate.
Sadiq is a political analyst and a social media activist, writes from Kano and Can be reached on assadiq.aldaud@gmail.com
