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2023 : Will power shift work?
By The Nigerian Tracker
As political permutation continue ahead of 2023 general elections in Nigeria , political pundits are apprehensive of whether power shift will work across Nigeria’s major political parties.
The political configuration of Nigeria made it necessary for politicians to introduce power shift in order to appease some ethnic groups that felt were not carried along in piloting the affairs of Nigeria.
Even before 1999 general elections ,when the military under retired general Olusegun Obasanjo decided to hand over power to civilians , Olusegun Obasanjo , a southerner handed over power to Alhaji Shehu Shagari a Northerner .
The tradition or we can say coincidences has shown that with the exception of few cases among the military, hardly a southerner hand over power to a fellow southerner and a northerner hand over power to a fellow Northerner .
Even before the ouster of Alhaji Shehu Shagari on December 31 1983 ,barely three months to his second term in office , it was said the National Party of Nigeria , would have fielded a southerner in the 1987 general elections and that person would probably be the late Vice President Chief Alex Ifeanyichukwu Ekwueme.
When Nigeria got independence in 1960, complains were rife that the north dominate political power and only northerners were destined to rule, that assertion mostly by southern press was justified when the June 12 , 1993 General elections won by Chief Moshood Kashimawo Olawole Abiola was annulled by general Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida .
Political instability followed the aftermath of the annulment as prominent politicians called for the break up of Nigeria and that forced general Ibrahim Babangida to step aside as military president and constituted and interim National government under Chief Ernest Shonekan .
Shonekan did not last long as Head of Interim national government due to his overthrow by the secretary of Defence , Late General Sani Abacha, the return of a northerner into the helm of affairs agitated the southwest and pro democracy groups including National Democratic coalition who called for the immediate return to democratic rule and restoration of Abiola’s mandate.
Other pro democracy activists from North and south were jailed by Late general Sani Abacha including late Muhammadu Abubakar Rimi, Alhaji Sule Lamido , Suspected states assassinations become worrying like the assassination of Late Kudirat Abiola on the streets of Lagos , Alfred Rewane and the death of former chief of staff supreme Headquarters Major General Shehu Musa Yaradua.
When General Abacha died on June 8 1998, his chief of defence staff General Abdulsalami Abubakar was appointed by the Provisional Ruling Council ,the then highest ruling body under the military.
As General Abdulsalami Abubakar prepared to hand over power back to civilians many northerners compromised and felt that for equity and fare share of Nigeria’s political power, a southerner must emerge as president and the person should come from the southwest to appease them of June 12 , citing Abiola’as incarceration and his eventual death on detention.
When Former President Olusegun Obasanjo finished his 8 years ,he admitted that its not fair for him to handover power to a fellow southerner , that made him to settle for former governor of Katsina state the Late President Umaru Musa Yar’adua.
Yar’adua did not rule for long , after his death on May 5, 2010, his deputy Goodluck Ebele Jonathan was sworn in which is a year away from the general election, Northerners tight up to succeed Jonathan and many of them have cited that for equity and fair play , Jonathan must not contest because it is the time of the north.
Advise by many politicians were kept on deaf ears , Jonathan contested in 2011 and won the general elections.
But in 2015 when the APC want capture power easily ,in connivance with top politicians of the southwest , a politician that has a cult like following in the north General Muhammadu Buhari clinched the party’s Ticket and slug it out with Jonathan and became the first Nigerian to defeat an incumbent civilian as President.
In 2019 Buhari, a northerner won his second term and the election was hotly contested with a fellow Northerner Atiku Abubakar.
Atiku Abubakar’s hungry for political power like president Muhammadu Buhari made him to be contesting Nigeria’s presidency for almost thirty years , unlike Buhari who contested for 12 years out of 16 years of Nigeria’s Democracy.
The question is the All Progressive congress has presented President Muhammadu Buhari as candidate in 2015 and 2019, with the full backing of the southwest , now by 2023 President Muhammadu Buhari will finish his eight years , some politicians from behind the scene have started campaigning for Bola Ahmad Tinubu the former governor of Lagos state.
While the PDP and APC are yet to show any signal of who will be their presidential candidate , some people are of the opinion that for justice and political stability, the two major parties should field southerners as presidential candidate.
But with Atiku’s thirst to have a shot at the presidency he may not be comfortable to refuse contesting for the presidency in 2023 as that was his long life ambition.
Will Nigeria’s political atmosphere change in 2023, when a northerner will hand over to a fellow northerner or vice versa?